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- Published on Tuesday, 30 September 2014 23:06
Milano-Torino
Wednesday October 1st, 195.5kms
Milano-Torino takes place this Wednesday and it kicks off the post-World's set of season-closing races. This is a race for climbers and strong punchers with two ascents up the Colle Di Superga inside the last 25kms.
Milano-Torino is a semi-classic that has been run since 1876, making it Italy's oldest bike race and one of the the oldest races in the world.
After a break from 2007 to 2011 the race came back in 2012 and was won by Alberto Contador. Last year's winner was Diego Ulissi, who of course won't be here to defend his title as a result of his farcical drugs suspension.
It's a race that's been won in the past by the likes of Francesco Moser, Gianni Bugno and Laurent Jalabert and even the infamous Danilo di Luca 'won' it in 2007.
Last year's race saw Ulissi win it in a hot streak at the end of the season which also saw him claim victories in Giro dell'Emilia and Gran Premio Città di Peccioli - Coppa Sabatini in the space of 10 days. Whatever he was on was working pretty good!
The race came down to a battle on the Superga, with the likes of Majka, Moreno, Valverde, Pozzovivo, Contador and Pellizotti in contention, but it was Ulissi who found a little extra from somewhere to bridge up to Majka and Pozzovivo inside the last 1500m and then jump away and win by 3" from Majka. It was a brilliant last kilometre as you can see in the video below with Dani Moreno coming across like a train and then Pozzovivo and Ulissi attacking too. Dan Martin was 24" back in 10th place.
Alberto Contador was the winner back in 2012 and he's back again as favourite to regain his title.
The Route
The course heads in a general south westerly direction passing through the provinces of Milan, Novaro, Vercelli and Torino along the way. The course is practically flat for most of the day bar a little hill around the 60kms mark, with the main action of the day concentrated in to the last 25kms of racing. As they hit the 170km mark and enter Torino they hit the wall of a climb that is the Superga.
They climb it twice, the first time up is followed by a fast descent back down to the base of the climb and they do it all over again, but the second time they go a little further up the climb to finish by the Basilica.
The climb is 4kms at an average of around 10% and is a real test at the end of the day. The first time up will be cagey but will weed out the weaker riders, the second time up will be a different matter altogether, it will be full gas all the way up with a real battle in store amongst the favourites. It just levels out a little in the last 200m as they swing around the big bends and up past the spectacular Basilica.
Route Map
Profile
Last 3kms map
Contenders and Favourites
Alberto Contador has form on this course - winner in 2012, 5th last year when not at his best form, he bridged across just too late last year, as just as he did so Ulissi took off and he couldn't respond. He's coming off the back of a tremendous victory in the Vuelta and has had plenty of recovery time since, avoiding the World's as he rightly worked out that it was not a course for him. He is the 9/4 favourite and is sure to have his supporters tomorrow.
Fabio Aru, one of the stars of the season is 8/1 second favourite and he is sure to go well too. He had a shocker here this time last year though finishing in 116th place, more than 11 minutes down. He had a tough Vuelta though and it may affect him tomorrow. Based on his form this year, and particularly on slopes like this, he should be right up there with the main leaders, but may find a few just too fast for him.
Joaquin Rodriguez is 8/1 also and he still seems to be in reasonably good form judging from his effort to light things up on Sunday on a course that was not really suitable for him. He was no match though for the leading group last year, not able to go with the leaders and the year before, although he took 4th place, he was 36" behind Contador, and I think he could have to settle for a similar sort of placing tomorrow.
Forget Dan Martin I think, he bruised his leg and gave himself a dead leg when crashing Sunday, and last year he struggled to stay with the leaders. Dani Moreno looked good last year for a while, sprinting up to the leaders and going right past them but then seemed to run out of gas and Ulissi and Majka left him behind to finish 3rd.
I think he could be a bet this year though as he is sure to race it a bit smarter and he could well be the team leader tomorrow. Purito might be tired after Sunday and Moreno might get the protected rider status - he sometimes gets the nod but doesn't really seem to have been given it at all lately, this could be a chance for him, as Purito might be waiting for Lombardia. He also has Giampaolo Caruso in the squad who finished 14th last year so they have plenty of talent that can cause problems in the last 4kms.
Arredondo, Pelizzoti, Duarte and Zardini could all be involved at the finish but it's hard to make a solid case for any of them. Domenico Pozzovivo - 50/1 for the 4th place finisher last year looks like a monster price, but Pozzo hasn't raced since June at the Italian National Championships as he crashed and broke his tibia in a crash shortly after. He says he has recovered very well though and is aiming for Il Lombardia. He recently said “It’s a crazy idea and so it might not be taken into consideration [by the team]. I have suffered and I still suffer physically but I believe that that the head makes the difference.” as he tried to assure the team he was ready. It will be interesting to see how he goes, it may be that this is a good warmup for Il Lombardia.
I think though this is going to be a hard race to call but Contador is in fantastic shape and is the most likely winner. Dani Moreno can land a podium spot with possibly Aru also taking a podium spot.
Recommendations:
1pt win on Alberto Contador at 9/4 with PP
0.5pts each-way on Dani Moreno at 12/1 with PP
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