Details

Published on Saturday, 04 October 2014 17:06

Il Lombardio

Sunday October 1st, 254kms

The race of the Falling Leaves gets a makeover this year with a new route that finishes in Bergamo. The previous route was predominantly an east to west route that finished in Lecco, this year's route goes almost the complete opposite direction across Lombardy, starting in Como on the west and finishing in Bergamo after a loop in to the mountains north of the city.

Bergamo has hosted the Tour of Lombardy before, finishing there between the years 1995 to 2003, in fact in 2003 the route was the same in title - Como to Bergamo, but it was a very different route entirely. 

Joaquim Rodriguez is bidding for three in a row, something not done by any rider in the modern era, not since Fausto Coppi in the 1940s. A rider in the news this week for his move to a new team and the fact he was going studying in university, Damiano Cunego, was the last rider to win three times in the race, taking victories in 2004, 2007 and 2008. 

The route still is packed with big and small climbs, with the total ascension coming in at a pretty testing 3000 metres. The big difference to this year's route compared to last year is that the majority of the climbing is packed in to the latter part of the course, with the main climbs coming in the last 90kms. One of the significant changes in terms of historical significance is the position of the famous Madonna Del Ghisallo in the route, as this year they crest it after only 58kms rather than with 46kms to go like last year. This means that we are probably not going to see them go past the iconic climb as TV coverage will not have started yet. 

The Madonna del Ghisallo is a shrine to cyclists - the chapel at the top is a monument to champions past and fallen cyclists, with an eternal flame burning in their memory. From the bike of Fabio Casartelli who died tragically in the 1995 Tour de France after hitting his head on a concrete bollard, to Fausto Coppi's old Bianchi, it's a place that should be on most cyclist's bucket lists. The museum beside the chapel has the pink jersey of the Giro winner from every year since 1931 to 2014 in a stunning display. 

Joaquim Rodriguez won it last year with a brilliant attack with just under 10kms to go on the Salita di Ello, attacking off the front of a group of only about 30 riders, Dan Martin, Valverde and Majka gave chase but were ultimately unable to reel him in as he charged towards the finish in pretty awful conditions. Dan Martin did something that we are now getting pretty used to seeing and crashed in the last 200m, unshipping his chain and just about hanging on to 4th place from a charging Gasparotto. Valverde showed why he is favourite for this year's race, chasing home Purito on his own after dropping Majka and Martin.

The weather conditions look like being more favourable to the riders this year with no rain forecast and sunny conditions. They'll have a light headwind when heading east. I'm kinda disappointed with that though, I thought the rain and poor conditions last year made it a more epic race, it was great to watch. 

The Route

Starting in Como on the southern shores of Lake Como they head north to the first challenge of the day and no doubt the scene of the launching of the break of the day, if it hasn't gone sooner. The Madonna Del Ghisallo is their first challenge but coming so early in the race it shouldn't really cause too many problems. Even so, it still is over 8.5kms at an average of 6.2%, but does hit 14% in parts, meaning some will be struggling early doors.

Then as they head towards the city of Bergamo they roll along more or less flat roads for 100kms or so until they reach the Colle dei Pasta, a little bump in the road on their way to the more serious climbs. 

Not long after finishing off the Pasta they'll be gnoccing on the door of the first real challenge of the day on the Colle Gallo as they move in to the northern section of the course. The Gallo is a smaller and easier climb (7.43kms at 6%, Max of 10%) than the Madonna del Ghisallo, but coming as it does after 160kms, it will be a far harder climb. It's quite a steady climb though. 

There's a 12km descent off the Gallo down in to the valley and to the base of the main climb of the day, the Passo di Ganda. This should be the scene of the first fireworks of the day when some of the teams like Katusha, Tinkoff-Saxo and Movistar start to put the pressure on to shake off the sprinters and the weaker links.   

At 9.2kms, it's the longest climb of the day and also contains some of the steepest ramps, hitting 15% near the top. The overall average is 7.3%, but the first 7kms or so average around 6.5%, while the last 2kms are a much harder 9.8% average. A long, tricky 15km descent follows, then a short ramp of the Bracca, as they head in to the last 40kms and the crucial part of the race. 

With 216kms gone, what's left of the peloton tackles the Berbenno, 5.5kms at an average of 5.3%, but it does start to flatten out and even go downhill in the last kilometre - so the main part of the climb is closer to a 7% average. With only 26kms to go from the top to the finish we are sure to see plenty of attacks from what's left and it could be the decisive point of the race. It may be too early for some who might want to wait until the final climb, but others will not want to leave it that late to be jumped on the last climb. It mean the action will be fast and furious from hereon in. 

Finally, they hit some flatish, rolling roads for around 10kms, which any escapees will find very hard to hold off a chasing pack on. Finally, as they enter Bergamo they have one final climb to get over, the Bergamo Alta, a 1.3km ramp at an average of 7.9%, with parts that not only go through a tunnel, but also go over cobbles and hit maximum gradients of 12%. It'll be a super exciting final stretch where we could see a lone rider like Rodriguez make his bid for glory. Once over the top it's just 3.5kms to the finish, 3kms of which are on a fast descent with lots of bends. It's only really the last 200m or so where it eventually levels off a little, but if someone has 10" or more getting over the top of the final climb they probably won't be caught.  

Contenders and Favourites

Looking at the last two years you'd think Joaquim Rodriguez stands a great chance of winning this again this year, and he is, in places, the joint-favourite for the race around 4/1. Boyles are going out on a limb a little with their offer of 13/2 on him, but seeing as they don't lay me more than about £1.50 on a bet these days it isn't much good. I tend to side with them though on taking him on, I don't think he'll win. 

The historical facts are against him, with no rider as I said since the '40s managing to land three in a row. Also, I think he just isn't in his form of old as I have written repeatedly of late. Does the finish suit him to jump away like last year? Yes and no. Yes, the final climb has steep parts that suit his explosive style, and he could get away and solo to the finish like he did last year. No, as he has been unable to really explode away from a group at all lately - San Sebastian was the closest he has come but he didn't have the power to maintain it and Valverde caught him and dropped him.

Also, the last big climb of the day, the Berbenno comes with 20kms to go to the final climb so those that might have lost contact have plenty of time to get back in contention before the final short, sharp burst. So although it may be a reduced group, there could still be 30-40 in contention coming to the last climb.

On the positive side, he had a relatively easy race at Milano-Torino on Wednesday, as he just had to follow wheels with Caruso and Chernetckii up the road and Dani Moreno also with him. He let Aru and Contador do the work and just ambled along behind them. It is clear now it was Katusha's plan to try plan B and plan C on Wednesday, I was just unlucky that it was Caruso and not Moreno who took advantage! Still, happy to land the 12/1 3rd place. With 4 riders in the top 7 Katusha are clearly in form and in Moreno and Caruso he has great allies to support him.

Valverde is an obvious shout again though, the finish suits him possibly even more than Rodriguez as there is also a chance that it might be a small group comes to the finish together and he could outsprint whoever he is with, as we saw in the World's, only Gerrans was able to outsprint him at the finish. 5/2 - 4/1 doesn't really appeal to me, although if you fancy him, taking the 4/1 each-way with Boyles who are paying 4 places might give you a pretty decent chance of at least getting your money back on the place, and a 4/1 shot at the winner. 

Philippe Gilbert is 3rd favourite at around 10/1 and he is an interesting one. He kicked things off at one point in the World's last week inside the last 5kms, making the attack up the outside which saw him chase  down Valverde and take Gerrans, Gallopin, Breschel and Van Avermaet with him. He then buried himself for GVA, being the only rider who seemed prepared to try to chase Kwiatkowski down in the last 3kms. In hindsight, maybe it was a bad idea as Gilbert could have stood a better chance in the sprint than GVA and as they weren't catching MK maybe they should have worked for a podium place for Gilbert instead.

I put him at a very similar level to Rodriguez at the moment, maybe not quite explosive enough to leave them all behind but should be right there at the finish in the group that hits the decisive final climb. Twice winner of this race of course in 2010 and 2009, he is perfectly at home on these sorts of rolling roads. Add in a cobbled section on the final climb and you'd have to fancy him to be one of the first home. If BMC can have Van Garderen, Sanchez and Morabito looking after him coming to the final two climbs he has a real chance.  

What to make of the new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski? Well the course looks perfect for him if he can repeat his effort from last week - a lumpy course, but one that he can save his effort for until the last sprint up that 1km climb and charge down to the finish, possibly pedalling on the top tube again! World Champs don't have a great record in this race though, the come-down, the celebrations, the media responsibilities etc can be very draining and very distracting. He was 20/1 earlier in the week I believe, and that offered a little bit of value, but now he is closer to 12-14/1 not so much. I think even if he is feeling ok and not too put out by the week he's just had, he will be marked too closely as the likes of Gilbert, Valverde and Purito will not let him pull the same stunt twice. He might struggle on the long climb of the Ganda too if T-S or Movistar decide to put the hammer down. 

Alberto Contador will find it hard to win this too, he will have to go long from the Berbenno I think to have a chance here, he won't be able to get away on such a short, sharp climb as the Bergamo Alta and will have a big task to hold off the quality of riders that will be chasing him. But going form that far out, with about 35kms to go will be a big ask. T-S will have to have thinned the peloton out dramatically on the Ganda and the Bracca, possibly shedding the likes of Gilbert and Kwiatkowski. It could be Contador's only chance, so we could see a furious pace up the Ganda. 

There is a sub-plot in play as well though tomorrow in that Valverde sits just 14 points behind Contador in the race for the World Tour title, with just the Tour of Beijing still to come. It may be that we just see Contador shadow Valverde tomorrow in an attempt to neutralise his chances of closing the gap. 

Daniel Martin - how I'd love to see him get something out of this race to finish the season on a high. He was going very well last year but couldn't go after Purito at the time of his escape, but looked very strong in pursuit, almost dropping Valverde and Majka at one point. Dan isn't the same Dan though this time around and could still be feeling the effects of his crash in the World's. He was down to race Milano-Torino during the week but didn't so maybe it was either a precaution to recover on time for Lombardy, or he really got banged up, he did suffer from a dead leg and bruising.  

He has had some good results in this race though, finishing 8th in 2009, 2nd in 2011 and 4th of course last year. He is rueing his bad luck this season and even tweeted this earlier this week:

"Anybody know where I can get some luck? Will draw the line at virgin sacrifice."..

I'm not sure he can win tomorrow, I don't think he was going all that well in the World's he was too near the back too many times for me, Roche was going far better. He should be close but I think it's a big ask for him to end the season victorious. 

Fabio Aru may be fancied by some but I can't see it happening, the finish is too short and sharp for him to get away. He finished 4th in Milano-Torino Wednesday but seemed to be too preoccupied with where Purito and Contador were at times. This is a race for cool, old heads I think and I don't think he will be able to get away from these guys and doesn't have a good enough descent/sprint to win it in the run-in. 

If things don't work out as planned for Purito, Katusha have strong back-up in Caruso and Moreno, but I think it will be all for Purito. Two that I do like at big prices when they opened were Michael Albasini and Rinaldo Nocentini at 66/1 each of them. 

Michael Albasini was very active last weekend and was continuously on the attack, but raced it poorly - had nothing left at the finish when the big moves came. This course will suit him perfectly though you'd think with the lumpy finish to it. He should play it a bit more conservatively this week and with the favourites possibly all looking at each other he could take off on the Bergamo Alta, or even on the Berbenno before it. If he comes to the finish with a small group he has a good chance of the win. There is still some 66/1 available with Boyles paying 4 places. 

Rinaldo Nocentini is a rider I like and picked him out for some stages of the Vuelta, where he disappointed. Out of the blue on Wednesday though he put in a great performance in Milano Torino, looking very strong as he attacked with Chernetckii and Caruso of Katusha. In fact, it was he who attacked again as they approached the 1km to go banner and shook off Chernetckii, but Caruso was able to get back up to him and then accelerated away from a tired Nocentini. That got me interested in him for this race, as he looks in great shape on a course that should also suit him, but it's a long shot looking at the stats as he has only finished this race four times in ten attempts!

Samu Sanchez, Tony Gallopin and Bauke Mollema can also go well around the 33/1 mark, of the three Samu Sanchez can descend brilliantly so could take a flyer off the top of the Bergamo Alto, but Bauke Mollema might also go for a slightly longer one if the favourites are all looking at each other. I think Rui Costa isn't 100% and I don't think he'll be involved tomorrow. Frank Schleck has been going well lately too - 8th in the GP Wallonie and 9th in Milano-Torino when he was riding the final climb with the big guns, he could go well too at a big 100/1. 

Overall though, a very hard one to call. Hopefully Nocentini, Albasini and Schleck can give us a bit of excitement in the run in, but the main bet is on Philippe Gilbert to get reward for his unselfish work last weekend at 10/1 or possibly bigger on Betfair. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way at 66/1 on Michael Albasini with Boyles paying 4 places.

0.5pts each-way on Rinaldo Nocentini at 66/1 with Boyles paying 4 places.

0.3pts each-way on Frank Schleck at 100/1 with Betfair Sportsbook or Betfred

2pts win on Philippe Gilbert at 10/1 or bigger.  

Match Bets

Bauke Mollema to beat Rui Costa - 1pt at 4/6 with Bet365

Valverde to beat Kwiatkowski, Rodriguez to beat S Sanchez, Gilbert to beat Gasparotto - 2pts on the treble at 7/4 with Bet365

Read Milano-Torino Race Preview >>      

Related Articles