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Published on Friday, 30 September 2016 17:06

Il Lombardia 2016

Saturday October 1st, 240kms

The 'Race of the Falling Leaves' has a new route this year, and two new climbs to get over in the last 70kms, with a little sting in the tail too with the short but punchy climb of the Bergamo Alto just 3kms from the finish. 

The Bergamo Alto was crested in the finale of the race in 2014, when Tim Wellens attacked and blew the race to pieces and only a small group including Ben Hermans, Philippe Gilbert, Alejandro Valverde, Fabio Aru and Sammy Sanchez got away over the top. With only 3kms to the finish the group stayed away, but just as they were all lining up and looking at each other for the sprint, Dan Martin, who seems to have gone unnoticed to the group, attacked hard with less than a kilometre to go and quickly wrapped up the race.

It showed that the finish is extremely fast and if you can take even 3-4 seconds in to the last right-hander you will probably hold on for the win. You can see Martin's attack in the video below, Gilbert looked, but almost dismissed him, a bad mistake to make... 

The race was won in spectacular fashion last year by Vincenzo Nibali, landing a nice winning bet for us. He was just too good for the rest as he soloed away to victory, coming home 21" clear of an impressive Daniel Moreno who chased valiantly and looked for a while like he might catch him. The race was blown to pieces though with riders coming home in twos and threes, Thibaut Pinot was 32" down in 3rd, with Valverde leading home a small group with Diego Rosa and Mikel Nieve, with Esteban Chaves and Sergio Henao just 10" behind them.

It showed what a hard course it was last year, and this year's looks as hard if not harder, with a relentless barrage of climbs coming over the last 115kms of the stage. They start in Como and head south-east for around 20kms before turning sharply left and heading north to take in one of the fixtures of this race, the Madonna del Ghisallo.. 

"The Ghisallo is to this race as the Poggio is to the Sanremo, or as the forest of Arenberg is to Paris-Roubaix. These locations will never go out of fashion, as long as there are crowds of enthusiasts who will take a train, a car or a bike to travel across Europe and wait for hours for riders to pass by. This year, for its 109th edition, the race will start in Bergamo and finish in Como: 245 kilometres climbing up and down Ghisallo, Muro di Sormano, Civiglio, with one of the toughest descents in cycling, and San Fermo della Battaglia, to pay tribute to Garibaldi’s soldiers who gave their lives for the Unification of Italy. The last 70 km will be really demanding.." 

Luca Gialanella, La Gazzetta dello Sport

Il Lombardia, formerly known as the Giro di Lombardia, is an interesting Classic in that the route normally is always changing. You have Milan-San Remo which varies the route but always goes from Milan to San Remo, via the Poggio every time. Paris-Roubaix, Liege-Bastogne-Liege more or less the same, but Il Lombardia usually changes the start and finish cities every year and winds over various mountains in between, but the Madonna Del Ghisallo and the Muro Di Surmano are normally its Poggio, Arenberg Forest or Oude Kwaremont. 

But this year they are sticking to the same two cities as last year, just reversing the start and finish towns. It does mean though that as a result of starting in Como, the Madonna del Ghisallo becomes almost insignificant, coming with almost 180kms still to race.. And there is no Muro di Surmano this year as they skirt past it on the way to the Ghisallo.

But there are plenty of challenges still in store for them, with the 20km long climb to Valcava after 120kms probably the first battleground where the stronger teams will look to whittle down the peloton. The climbs come one after another then for the next 80kms, with four hard climbs to get over, including the new climbs of the Sant’Antonio Abbandonato and Miragolo San Salvatore.  

Joaquim Rodriguez is bidding for a third win and to (possibly) retire in style, looking to join Damiano Cunego, the only three-time winner of the modern era - only Binda and Coppi have won it more times. With no Vincenzo Nibali this year, Dan Martin is back to try to regain his crown that he won in spectacular fashion in 2014. The Irishman has a great record at Lombardia - in his first time riding in it in 2009 he finished 8th. He has also finished 2nd to Oliver Zaugg in 2011, 16th in 2012, 4th in 2013 (but that doesn't tell the story of his crash in the last 200m..).

The Route

Starting in Como in a reversal of the finish town of last year, the riders zig-zag their way east over 245kms to the start town of last year's stage in Bergamo. The stage is 4kms shorter than last year's race at 241kms, but looks far harder, with it appealing even more to the climbers this year than last, even though climbers dominated the top 20 of last year's race. 

The Madonna del Ghisallo is traversed after just 65kms, so a climb that normally would play a big part in deciding the outcome of this race will only serve the purpose of helping the break of the day gain some time and possibly strip out those who can't climb or are on a bad day. After descending for 15kms or so they hit a flat-ish part for around 45kms as they go along the shores of Lake Como, with the brief interruption of the Colle Brianza (4kms at 6.6%). 

After 125kms they start on the lower slopes of the biggest climb of the day up to Valcava, with the climb from the bottom to the top coming to almost 20kms, but the official climb is 11.6kms at 8% average. The climb gets very steep in the last half though, with the section between 7.5kms and 10.5kms in averaging nearly 12%. Once over the top there's a fast and twisty descent for 20kms before they start on the four climbs which come thick and fast over the next 50kms. 

First up is the Berbenno, which barely gets a mention, but it is still 6.5kms at 5% average. Next is the new climb of the Sant’Antonio Abbandonato, a nasty 8.9% over 6.5kms, but most of the climb is spent around 10% gradient. Just 8kms later they start on the next new climb, the Miragolo San Salvatore, a longer climb at 8.7kms, but easier at just 7% average, but with an almost flat last kilometre the average is probably closer to 7.5%. 

6kms of a descent takes them to the final main challenge of the day, the Silvino, which is a bit like the San Fermo Della Bataglia at the end of last year's race, it's not too hard at 5.4% average over 6.9kms, a big ring climb for some, a power climb rather than one for the pure climbers. From the summit there's just over 28kms to go, 12kms of which are the fast descent. 13kms of flat and suddenly they rise up out of Bergamo and on to the fan-packed road to the Bergamo Alto climb. 

Two years ago it showed itself as an exciting and challenging end to the race, with Tim Wellens stirring things up and BMC chasing him down in an effort to set up Gilbert. The road is pretty steady, but goes through some really narrow and twisty sections and even goes over a cobbled section for 500m or so once they squeeze through the doorway arch through some builidngs. If you can be at the front over the cobbles you can get the drain and save energy, the others have to plough on over the cobbles. The descent also is quite tricky, with some very tight bends and narrow passages, and only really flattens out with about 600m to go. It's a very fast finish which can favour a lone breakaway, but equally, as should have been the case in 2014, the race can also end in a bunch sprint. 

Contenders and Favourites

So after a bit of a hiatus, I'm back! I was a little burned out after the Vuelta to be honest, and had to catch up with other things in life for a while.. The Vuelta was excellent for me and my followers, we had plenty of winners, including Sky in the TTT at 5/1, Brambilla at 12/1 and capped off by De La Cruz at 125/1. Besides the Eneco, none of the races since have really excited me ahead of them so if I couldn't get motivated for them, I doubt many of you really cared either from what I could see on Twitter.. 

And besides, the bookies have practically shut up shop on cycling for the season, there have been very limited options out there at times.. Anyway, good to get stuck in again though, I'll be covering the World's also, but first, let's see if we can find the winner of Il Lombardia again this year. 

This race is always a tricky one to try to read - you have riders coming towards the end of their season and are tired; riders whose whole end of season might have revolved around this race, and others who are either already on holidays in their heads or thinking about next season. For many this will be one of their last race days of the season, seeing as the World's is a sprinters course this year, so for the climbers in the peloton, it's the last chance to shine.

And this race has history and prestige - the 110th edition of the race, the last Monument of the season, with a list of world-class winners in the past. It's a  climbers race, but puncheurs have in the past been able to hang in there, just look at the result in 2014, when Philippe Gilbert, Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert were all near the top of the result sheet. But in 2014 they did only 3,000m of climbing, a full 1,000m of climbing less than they will this year. It is also 900m more of climbing this year than last year's edition, when climbers dominated the race. I think the puncheurs will find it difficult to stay there to the finish this year to give themselves a chance at the sprint finish, so I'm mostly ruling them out and sticking with climbers. 

No Vincenzo Nibali this year, which is a bit of a pity as he should have liked this course, but Astana have a live one in his place in Fabio Aru. He made a valiant attempt to do something two years ago on the Bergamo Alto, coming out of the crowd after Tim Wellens, but couldn't bridge, it was Gilbert who eventually made the move that pulled Wellens back. He rode very well in the first stage of the Giro del Toscana, taking 4th place just ahead of the sprinters, and in the last three Italian races this week he has finished 6th, 9th and 4th. His 4th in the Giro dell'Emilia was impressive, he finished with Uran and Bardet, just 3" behind Chaves.

But how can he win this race? He isn't explosive enough for the Bergamo Alto (we saw that two years ago) and he is not fast enough in a sprint finish. He might have to go long in order to split things up, but I can't see that lasting home either. They also have dangers in Dario Cataldo, Diego Rosa, Andrei Grivko, Jacob Tueglsang and Miguel Angel Lopez.

After crashing out early on in the Vuelta Lopez has come back to racing in Italy and has the bizarre looking stat on his results sheet for the last five races of DNF, DNF, DNF, 1, DNF, with the 1 being a pretty impressive win of Milano-Torino on Wednesday, finishing ahead of Woods, Uran, Moreno, Ulissi and Aru on the Superga. This is no Superga finish though, but he might try going early too, possibly to try to help Aru later in the race.  

Alejandro Valverde, as always, has a big chance of a top 3 placing I think and the 9/1 looks pretty tempting with Bet365, although there's a slight worry that he pulled out of Milano-Torino with a 'small illness'. He will have no problem with all the climbing, and if he can have a team-mate or two with him at the finish he could well take a reduced bunch sprint. I'm thinking Dani Moreno, Giovanni Visconti and Ion Izagirre could well be there and all three could even have chances themselves - Dani Moreno is riding exceptionally well at the moment and Gio Visconti took a great win in the first stage of the Giro della Toscano.. Visconti could be used as the early attacker on the Miragolo or Silvino, Moreno could attack on the Alta, allowing Valverde an easy ride.  

Dan Martin, Gianluca Brambilla and Julian Alaphilippe lead Etixx and it's a strong three-pronged attack that they have. Martin of course won on this finish in 2014, and although I expect a big race from him again, I can't see them letting him get away with that move twice. So it will mean he will have to attack early or get away with a very small group of maybe 3 or 4 on the Alta. I don't think he'll be explosive enough to get away on his own and will find it hard to win I think, although he is sounding confident on Twitter tonight, tweeting 'Last time Il Lombardia finished in Bergamo...."

Brambilla could have a free card to play though, he could attack early too and let Dan sit in, and he has the sort of explosive kick on him that he might be able to attack away from rivals in the run-in. And Julian Alaphilippe also could be a joker they can play here as he can sit in as well and maybe try his luck from a reduced sprint at the finish. 

Rui Costa has been hit and miss since the Tour, not posting great results really, but then rode really well in the Euros to finish 6th. He should like the course and maybe in the hunt at the finish again, and depending on who's there with him, he could come close to a podium spot, like he did in 2014. But Lampre also have another excellent chance of a winner in Diego Ulissi, and should it come to a sprint finish in a reduced group, we might actually see Costa working for him as he'd have a better chance in the sprint.

It could be that they let Costa try his move early on on the Selvino or even on the Alta, and Ulissi could try to sit in and sprint it out. He has been in sensational form lately with 8 top 10 finishes in his last 14 starts, including a win, two 2nds and a 3rd. I fully expect to see the two men in pink to the fore at the business end of the race. 

Joaquim Rodriguez is a double winner of this race (and 3rd in 2011), so knows how to win races here, but I think he will find it very hard to win it this year, the explosiveness needed is no longer there. Rigoberto Uran was 3rd in this race in 2008 when only 21 years old, behind Cunego (Viisconti was 4th) and was also 3rd behind Rodriguez in 2012. He has been riding really well lately and is the kind of guy who is explosive enough to get away on the Bergamo Alta and hold it to the finish. 3rd twice this week in races in Italy, and the Cannondale team looks strong with Villela, Woods, Slagter, Moser and Formolo - I expect quite a few of them to be involved at the finish. 

Esteban Chaves is riding really well at the moment, as we saw when he took a brilliant win in the Giro dell'Emilia this week, holding off a high quality field. He seems to have held his shape well after a rest following the Vuelta and he could be a big danger here for a longer-range attack.. We could well see him attack, either on his own, or with some accomplices on the Miragolo on the steeper parts of 7-9% in the latter half, power down the 6km descent holding a small gap and then go again hard on the Selvino. Whether they can hang on over the Bergamo Alto is the question though, the pace will be brutally fast at that stage

I know I said I would leave puncheurs out of it, but Greg Van Avermaet has been riding so well all year, and climbing so well, that it is hard to ignore the Olympic Champion at 50/1. He won the Gold medal after all on a course that was supposed to be a climbers course, and he also took a very mountainous stage to Le Lioran in the Tour. BMC has a strong team here, with the likes of Ben Hermans, Samu Sanchez, Alessandro De Marchi, Damiano Caruso and Darwin Atapuma all potential candidates for victory had they been riding for another team. 

And they have Philippe Gilbert of course too, but even he seemed to admit this week that the course is too hard for him, he's there to see how far he can get and support the other guys. Ben Hermans rode really well here two years ago in trying to set Gilbert up, he was strong over the Bergamo Alto, he might be required to do something similar this time. If it becomes a brutally hard climbers race over the three big climbs from 60kms or so to go, then Darwin Atapuma might have a chance to get in to an elite group of climbers, he was climbing well in the Vuelta and did alright in the Giro Dell'Amilia and Milano-Torino this week too, and finished 23rd here the last time he did this race in 2013. 

Tom Dumoulin will be thinking about the TT in the World's coming up and although he might go well, I can't see a scenario where he wins here. Our hero from San Sebastian Bauke Mollema looks a decent price at 40/1 again, he's been riding ok since but didn't finish the Giro dell'Emilia this week, but I also like the look of his team-mate Fabio Felline at a massive looking 125/1 with Bet365. Felline had been riding out of his skin at the Vuelta and seemed to be able to do almost everything - climbing, sprinting, time-trialling - he could be a real dark horse again for this and at 125/1 I couldn't resist it..

And finally, Roman Bardet - the Frenchman leads the line for AG2R and he too has beein in good form of late with a fine 2nd place this week in the Emilia, and 9th in Milano-Torino. He finished a superb 2nd in the Tour of course, beating Nairo Quintana, and looks to have carried his form pretty well. But unless he can ride away solo, he won't be winning this I think, he won't outsprint some of the likely guys to be involved at the finish. Alexis Vuillermoz could also be in with a chance here, he can climb well and has a decent kick on him at a finish, and it may also be that he gets away with the likes of Visconti and Brambilla earlier in the race as the favourites watch and wait.   

So it's a ridiculously competitive Lombardia this year - last year I was pretty confident with Nibali, this year there is no stand-out candidate to me, and I haven't even mentioned a whole bunch of other guys like Gesink, Cunego, Bakelants, Wellens, Pozzovivo and Torres. And one last thing to think about - the weather - there is a chance of rain in the afternoon, which could make the final descents a bit tricky, and even the ascent on the Bergamo Alta with its cobbles and tight archways could be sketchy.

Chaves is too short at 5/1, not interested in Aru either at just 10/1. Valverde looks far too big at 10/1, but I'm guessing he's been friendless in the betting if he has been ill, so that to me is a warning sign too - if Valverde was 100%, he wouldn't be 10/1. I think Dani Moreno could go really well here, especially if Valverde isn't well, and maybe it's worth taking the 12/1 with Ladbrokes as they are paying 4 places. Van Avermaet at 80/1 with Ladbrokes also is worth a nibble, as is Felline at 125/1 with Bet365. But I have had a good feeling for Rigoberto Uran for this since watching him in the Canadian races recently and his ride in Milano-Torino made up my mind to make him my main bet of the day at 12/1.  

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Rigo Uran at 12/1 with Paddy Power 

0.25pts each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 80/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Fabio Felline at 125/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Dani Moreno at 12/1 with Ladbrokes paying 4 places. 

Match Bets

Uran to beat Bardet, Chaves to beat Aru and Hermans to beat Atapuma - 2pts on the treble at 2.1/1 with Bet365

Rui Costa to beat Poels - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365