Stage 2

 

Stage 2

Tarare to Pays d'Olliergues-Col du Béal, 156kms

No easing in to this race, as the first time they hit the open road they tackle a mountain stage. They head west to the eastern edges of the Massif Central and across a bunch of climbs en-route to the summit finish on the Hors Catégorie Col Du Béal.

It starts with a Cat 2 climb inside the opening kilometres and a Cat 4 after just 16kms but then it settles down for the next 66kms or so but then kicks up again over the next 33kms, crossing two Cat 2 climbs and a Cat 3. 

From the top of the Col des Pradeaux there is a 10kms descent, followed by 17kms on the flat where they take in the intermediate sprint with just 26km to go in Ambert. From Vertolaye at the 141.5km mark they start climbing the final climb up to the Cote Du Béal. This is a tough start to the race and will cause some real problems and time gaps for some of the weaker climbers after just one stage.

It averages 6.6% over the 13.6kms of the climb but there are some steep sections along the way, such as at the 5km point on the climb where it averages 9.2% for a kilometre and the last kilometre which averages 8.4%. It's typical of the Auvergne region with it's wooded climbs and remoteness and should be a good stage to watch.

This climb was used in the 2010 Tour de L'Avenir when Yannick Eijjsen won the stage from Darwin Atapuma with Andrew Talansky back in 3rd. The rider who finished 10th on that stage and went on to win the overall was none other than man of the moment Nairo Quintana. On the same climb that day former leader Alex Dowsett lost 23 minutes so that gives you the kind of time gaps we could see on this stage.     

 

Contenders and Favourites

What a great start to the race for me and Chris Froome with the Sky man destroying the field to take a commanding lead. It may sound strange to say he destroyed the field when he only won by 8" but it was a stunning performance to come in just after Contador had set the fastest time with a brilliant TT and blow it away to bely the huge odds of 20/1 that he was. So a great start to the P&L with bets landed at 13/1 and 20/1 and 3 of the four match bets landing, just Chavanel letting us down for a clean sweep. 

What have we learned then in 10 short kilometres? Well Froome is clearly in fantastic shape - he went out latest in the day when the wind had turned against the late finishers, and despite not being a prologue specialist by any means, be was unstoppable. He powered up the Cat 4 climb in the TT tuck position and just looked so smooth and strong. It was a big marker, not just from Froome, but Sky as a whole as the team all put in great performances with Kiryienka, Thomas, Porte and Lopez all finishing within 30" of Froome. He is ready and the team are ready. 

We've also learned that Contador is in brilliant shape too. In a discipline that isn't his forte at all it looked for a minute or so like he had won the stage at the ridiculous odds of 66/1. He climbed strong and kept the power all the way to the line so he really is feeling good, and he tweeted after that he had 'great sensations' on the bike. 

Nibali went better than expected and in fact was faster than the top two over the climb. We'll find out tomorrow how great his form really is though with the first real mountain challenge. 

I can see a good break going early on a rough, lumpy stage like this with lots of fresh men who might have pottered around in the TT, waiting for today. I don't think they will make it to the finish alone though, I think Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo will want to keep things under control, especially with time gaps still so small, and set up their men for the first showdown. 

The final climb is long at 13.6km but it isn't the hardest of climbs, despite getting steeper at the top. We should see Sky's train of Lopez, Kiryienka, Thomas and Porte all pushing hard in turn as they head up through the first 10kms. T-S will want to get Contador in with a shot of attacking Froome so expect them to help out too. We may also see the likes of Hesjedal pulling for Talansky. 

I think though we will see a small group of 8-10 distance the rest as the pace really lifts in the last 2-3kms as they hit the steeper parts. Sky will keep the power on for as long as they can and there should be plenty of attacks as soon as they burn their last match. Chris Froome could well try to spin those legs at 800RPM as he likes to do, but there could be a few with fresh legs that can hang on to him tomorrow. If he is as good shape as he looked in the TT though he could well just ride away from everyone to victory and he is a strong favourite at 2/1. But what if there are 5 or 6 that are still with him with 500m to go? Does he win the sprint? Can they attack him and get away to win? It's possible, so let's look at who that could be. 

Contador is almost certain to be there, and I think he will be desperate to attack and strike back at Contador for stealing the TT victory from him. He should be able to match Froome on this climb, it's not too steep and one that suits Contador for a late attack. He could well try something inside the last kilometre and if Froome hesitates at all, he could be gone. He'll have Beltran, Sorensen and Hernandez to work for him and it is just his nature to want to attack Froome all the time. He surprised me with his fantastic TT and I think he has a great chance of sprinting away from Froome inside the last km and take victory. At 7/2 he is my first bet.

Nibali was superb today and we should expect him to be right up there tomorrow too. If it comes to a late showdown though I think he will be beaten by a number of other likely candidates and will not win a small sprint so he doesn't appeal to me at 8/1. I'd rather see how he goes tomorrow than back him at that price. 

One that also pleasantly surprised me with his performance today was Jurgen VDB. A superb ride saw him finish in 17th place, but just 15" off Froome and only 2" outside a top 10 place. He was 5th fastest over the climb though too showing that his climbing legs are looking ok, albeit over a very short test. He is the kind of guy that could go really well tomorrow, he could be under the radar a little, so to speak, with Froome and Contador and if he is still in the mix with 2 or 3kms or so to go and the top two are looking at each other a little bit he may well take off and could make it.

He won a similar sort of stage in 2011 in the Critérium up to the finish in Saint Pierre de Chartreuse, which also coincidentally was 13.6kms  with a similar gradient, the last 2kms averaged around 9%. At 40/1 I thought he was an interesting bet for the stage, but also, I liked the way he went today and have had a point each-way bet on him to win the overall at 50/1 too. He was only 40/1 pre-race so I can't understand how he has been pushed out to 50/1 after doing what to me looked like an excellent TT. 

One rider that can sprint away from all these guys at the finish though if a small bunch makes it is Dani Moreno. He should have good climbing legs, coming off the Giro and could be more 'race fit' than some others. When prices opened he was 25/1 with Paddy Power and that was too big to ignore, I had a half a point each-way on him. He is now closer to 14/1 but still worth a small bet I think. If it does come to a small bunch with 1km or so to go, expect to see him flying off the front and charging to the line as Contador and Froome look at each other to see who will chase him down!

Andrew Talansky did a cracking TT today to finish fourth, will be interesting to see how he goes tomorrow on the first mountain stage, he might struggle to hang on to Froome and Contador if they go for it towards the finish. Adam Yates didn't do a great TT so I might watch and wait to see how he goes tomorrow before considering him for stages later in the week. Wilco Kelderman rode well today too and should have good legs after the Giro but I fear will not be able to best the big boys here. Simon Spilak should be right in the mix too and could try the 1-2 with Moreno but as I have him for the GC (and he didn't do the best of TTs), I'll watch tomorrow with him I think. Tejay Van Garderen can be another to go well tomorrow, he didn't do a bad TT, and should be challenging but may be caught for pace at the finish. 

Edit, 8:03am: Spilak was too big to ignore at 80s on Betfair,  he's only 33/1 with Bet365. I had 0.4pts at 80s. His last victory was over Froome on a mountain after all!

Recommendations:

Alberto Contador - 2pts win at 7/2 with Paddy Power

Dani Moreno  - 0.5pts each-way at 25/1 with Paddy Power

Jurgen Van den Broeck - 0.5pts each-way at 40/1 with Bet365

Jurgen VDB - 1pt each-way for the overall GC at 50/1 with Bet365

Simon Spilak - 0.4pts at 80s on Betfair.

Match Bets

Jurgen VDB to beat Roman Bardet, 1pt at 6/5 with Paddy Power

Intxausti to beat JC Peraud, 1pt at 4/7 with PP

1pt double on the above, pays nearly 5/2

Moreno to Beat Hesjedal, 1pt at 5/6 with Bet365 

 

Stage 3

Stage 3

Ambert to Le Teil, 194kms

This looks like one for the sprinters, but a lumpy early part of the stage which sees them tackle the Cat 2 climb of the Cote de Lavet after just 18.5kms is sure to see an early breakaway go up the road for most of the day. The next 120kms or so is a rolling up and down route which is mostly descending though until they reach around 143kms gone when they reach the Cat 2 climb of the Col de La Mûre.

This is a short little sting with 40kms to go - 3.8km at 6.3% average could see a selection, but the chances are that the sprinters teams will pull it back together before the finish in Le Teil. 

The finish is almost dead flat and we should see the fast men battle it out for one of the few chances they get in this race. 

 

Contenders and Favourites

What an incredible stage today with Froome showing everyone that he not only wants to win this race but he wants to crush the opposition in to submission. He attacked relentlessly like he was being chased by an imaginary rabid dog. But in hindsight, for all that effort, he didn't put that much time in to the opposition, with Contador sticking with him, a Kelderman with a Giro in his legs only 4" back and the likes of Anton, Yates and Reichenbach just 40" back.

 

I'm sure he'll take that result and that lead but he probably would have had a similar result with half the effort. He clearly wanted to make a mark today though and lay down the law, he drove his team until the last man fell away and then exploded the race with a surge that did for most of the leading group. Nibail was disappointing but did exactly as I expected him to - be there but fade at the finish. JVDB was a very pleasing revelation today and we were very unlucky not to collect on the 40/1 each-way for the 3rd place, beaten by a fitter Kelderman. The 50/1 for JVDB is looking better now though, he's in to 33/1 best price, sitting in 5th place just 35" off Froome, and looked good for his first race back in weeks. 

So we were unlucky with both our main bets today but the match bet on JVDB and Moreno won, unfortunately Intxausti had a stinker and even though Peraud finished way down in 56th, Intxausti was 108th - very disappointing considering how good his TT was.   

On to stage 3 then and it's looking like a sprint that Arnaud Démare will win, as long as the break of the day doesn't make it. There are very few sprinters at this race and he is by far and away the best sprinter on paper here. Three weeks ago at the Tour de Picardie he was 2nd on stage 1 to Bryan Coquard but won the next two sprints and took the overall. On the 3rd stage he beat Meersman in to 3rd place and really shouldn't fear him tomorrow. 

He has another couple of wins and a bunch of top 5 placings, and has beaten Greipel, Sagan and Bennett in a sprint in Tirreno-Adriatico when 2nd, on a course not too dissimilar to tomorrows with 3 classified climbs early on and a flat run for the last 60km or so. 

Giaccomo Nizzolo is probably his biggest rival, but as we saw in the Giro, he is beaten too often on flat sprints by fast Frenchmen! He will probably be top 3 but I don't think he will beat Démare, although he will probably do it to wind me up after so many close 2nds with him in the Giro. Others that can go close? Julian Alaphilippe was a massive 150/1 when prices opened, well done on some of you for getting that (Joe!) but now he's 40/1 it's a lot tighter. He is a real prospect though and could well be in the thick of things tomorrow. He did a fantastic TT to finish 14th and came in a creditable 43rd in today's stage, only 4'26" down so clearly has good legs. Even at the much shorter 40/1 he is worth a small investment each-way. Maxime Bouet is massive too at 200/1 with BetVictor, he could be close to the front at a nice price.

Gianni Meersman should be up there too and possibly Daryl Impey but just in case the peloton takes a breather after a hard opening stage and a strong break makes it I'm sticking a pin in a few at big prices for an interest. Thomas Voeckler at 150/1, Lars Boom at 200/1 and Alex Howes at 200/1 are possibles for a break.

I think though it will come down to a sprint as it's probably FDJs best chance of a stage win with Démare. And if it does come to the sprint, it's hard to see anyone beat him.

Recommendations:

Arnaud Démare 6pts win at 7/4 on Betfair, looking to lay back 2pts in play around evens.

0.3pts each-way on Julian Alaphilippe at 40/1 with Paddy Power

Maxime Bouet - 0.1pt each-way at 200/1 with BetVictor

Thomas Voeckler - 0.1pt each-way at 150/1 with Bet365

Lars Boom - 0.1pt each-way at 200/1 with Paddy Power 

Alex Howes - 0.1pt each-way at 200/1 with Paddy Power

 

Stage 4

Stage 4

Montélimar to Gap, 167.5kms

Another stage that on paper looks one for the sprinters, but that's not a given with the Col de Manse to get over just 12kms from the finish. 

At 10kms long at an average of 6.9%, the Col is sure to be a launching pad for those who don't stand a chance in a sprint finish. But it's not just the up that they need to worry about, the descent is quite tricky too.

This was the scene of a little bit of excitement in the Tour of 2013 when Contador tried attacking Froome, who was in the yellow jersey at the time, but lost it on a bend and Froome nearly ran in to the back of him, forcing Froome to unclip. Froome was not impressed with Contador's tactics that could have cost him the race. 

It was also the same descent where in 2003 Joseba Beloki rolled a tub and came smashing down, sending Lance Armstrong to take to the field on a cross-country route that is one of the few impressive things to remember about Armstrong.

EDIT, 11/06: Thanks INRG for pointing out that this isn't the same descent today that caused those incidents above, I hadn't realised.. Instead they are turning right off the Col de Manse and turning right down to Romette and not Rochette. It is still a narrow and tricky descent with an uneven surface so should still cause a few problems/give a few riders an advantage. 

There are only 12 very fast kilometres to the finish once over the Col de Manse and if it is anything like the Tour stage we should see a reduced peloton, including the GC men, battle it out at the finish after pulling away from the rest.  

 

The less said about stage 3 the better.. Arnaud Démare had a penalty kick to win today after Nizzolo had crashed out of the race and he couldn't even place in the top 5. I had managed to lay off about 2/3 of my stake on him in play at odds of 2.0, 2.16, 1.84 and even as low as 1.61 so not too much damage done and had a very nice position on him had he won. Superb result for Giant Shimano though with Niclas Arndt 1st and Van Rensburg 3rd at 125/1. I don't know what price Arndt was but I'm guessing 200/1 at least.

Stage 4 is going to be a really hard stage to call. On paper it should be a day for a breakaway and a hard day in the saddle for the strugglers in the peloton. It looks like just one long drag for more or less 140 kms before they descend in towards Gap and start off again on the finishing circuit that take them up over the Col de Manse. With just 12 fast and tricky kilometres from the top of the Col de Manse left there isn't much time to regroup, it'll be every man for himself. 

It's a very hard stage to call as there isn't the usual reasons why teams try to engineer a result at the finish. Hardly any of the sprinters will be with the leaders if the peloton reaches the Col together so there is no reason for the sprinters teams to work. The GC me know that no major damage will be done on the Col as it is not difficult enough so it's not worth putting in a big effort to pull back a break and rip it up the climb possibly. 

Having said that though the time gaps are still pretty small so the break, depending on the makeup of it, should be kept relatively under control by Sky as they don't want anyone close enough to Froome to get a big lead. Also, as there are some teams with punchy climbers who will fancy the final climb, they might join Sky later on to pull back the break. It really could be anything - the break could make it, they could be caught before the Col, counter attacks could go on the Col and we get a solo/small late break winner, or we could see a reduced sprint with the main GC men and about 30/40 guys. In the Tour stage last year there were 25 riders who got away and hit the Col together, from where Rui Costa accelerated away to take a great stage win. 

I think there could be some strong candidates that could look to get in the break of the day that are worth backing to start with. Sylvain Chavanel will love this stage and was in great form coming in to this race with superb results in Dunkirk and Tour of Belgium, but didn't do a great TT or climb up the Béal. But now he has lost enough time, he'll be able to attack! Maybe there's method in his madness..! He will be keen to get in this break I think and as long as there are no really strong climbers he should be ok on the final climb.

Even if he loses a bit of time he's a fantastic descender, as we saw when he rode away from the chasers in the stage he won in Dunkirk a few weeks back, he descended like a madman, or as Sean would say, 'A Kamakaze descender'. So he can make up lost time on the descent possibly and will be hard to beat in the finale. At 14/1 he's my first win bet. At one point today in stage 3 with 20km to go, the late attackers were flying off the front and Chavanel made a move up the right hand side as if he wanted to go after them, but his wise head I think told him to sit tight, it was never going to stick and he saved energy! Either that or he didn't have the legs but I don't think that's the case!

Jan Bakelants is in a similar mode to Chava, a strong breakaway rider, with the freedom to attack and with a team that is stage hunting now Kwiatkowski is out of it. He was unlucky for me in Romandie when he finished 3rd in the lumpy stage 4 to Fribourg at 100/1, beaten by Albasini and Voeckler in a sprint. He is only 40/1 tomorrow but I think he may be involved. Thomas Voeckler could well be involved in the break too but at 25/1 he's a bit short for me, but he was very active at the front late on in stage 3. 

Greg Van Avermaet has been riding well lately too, with a top 3 in a lumpy stage in the Tour of Belgium, but more pertinent is his good 9th place finish in stage 5 of the Tour of California where they had to get over the HC climb of the San Marcos Pass 30km from the finish. He didn't climb well on the Béal, finishing in 88th place but now he is far enough back to attack too. With Tejay all but out of the GC now he should be allowed up the road at some point and tomorrow looks like one for the Classics man. At 50/1 with BetVictor he was worth a small bet.

If it does come back together on the Col we are sure to see plenty of attacks but Sky will look to suffocate everything. Contador will attack repeatedly I think to dish up a bit of Froome's punishment, and will go hard on the descent again. Nibali could well attack in his trademark style on the descent but will not be given any leeway. Kwiatkowski is way too short for me though at 10/1 or so, 18/1 with Bet365 is still not appealing enough for me.

One man I do want to have a punt on though for the finish is Simon Gerrans. If the GC men go on the attack and things get very fast up front and strung out then that group could really reduce down and most sprinters will get burned off. If Gerrans can ride like he did in Liege then he should be right in the thick of it as they come to the sprint finish and he could well take the stage. He may even get in the break of the day to give us a double chance of the stage win. Watch out for Tony Gallopin and Julian Alaphilippe to see if they can get over the final climb and if so they could pose the biggest danger to Gerrans. Alaphillipe sacrificed himself today with a huge turn at the front with 1500m to go, but may have a better chance tomorrow if he can hang in there at 66/1. 

Recommendations:

Sylvain Chavanel - 1pt win at 14/1 with Paddy Power

Jan Bakelants - 0.3pts each-way at 40/1 with BetVictor

Greg Van Avermaet - 0.3pts each-way at 50/1 with BetVictor

Simon Gerrans - 0.5pts each-way at 15/1 with Bet365

Julian Alaphilippe - 0.2pts each-way at 66/1 with Paddy Power  

MatchBets:

2pts on Van Avermaet to beat Julien Simon at 11/10

1pt on Voeckler to beat Hesjedal at 1/2 

2pts on Chavanel to beat Visconti at 4/9

1pt on Gallopin to beat Kwiatkowski at 8/11

1pt on the fourfold with Bet365 pays 6.8/1

 

 

Stage 5

Stage 5

Sisteron to La Mure, 189.5kms

Stage 5 could be one of those 'this should be a boring transition stage but actually turns out to be a lot more exciting than expected'. With three Cat 3 and three Cat 2 climbs along the way the action is going to fast and furious and although the final 20kms are flat(ish) and it may be one the sprinters have marked down, it wouldn't surprise me at all if a break wins this stage. 

 

Once over the Col de la Morte with 40km to go there is a fast, tricky descent for 10kms before they start the Côte de Laffrey, otherwise known as the Rampe de Laffrey, and a stretch of road that is one of the deadliest in France, famous for its many car accidents. Although it appears not too tough at just 6.2% average for 6.3kms that's deceptive as the first and last kilometre are lowish gradients and there are several sections along the way that are 12-14%. It's the kind of climb that will suit an aggressive puncheur but it's a full 20kms of rolling roads until the finish in La Mure, so it will be very hard for a late attack on the Laffrey to hang on all the way to the finish. 

So two days running now we have had a 200/1 winner, with today's second place rider Gustav Eric Larsson not even on the bookies price lists last night. I'm guessing here but I would think Stage 4's runner up Boeckmans was probably triple figures as well for the win, so it's been a tough two days. Jan Bakelants got in the break for us but managed to screw it up and let Trofimov go first and then Larsson and Ligthart so the little group he was with was only fighting for 4th place. Chavanel tried repeatedly to get in the break of the day but missed the one that stuck. Van Avermaet came in with the group of favourites so had no problem with the final climb, shame he didn't get in the break either. At least he landed our 2pt match bet against Julian Simon at 11/10.

It wouldn't surprise me either if we had another triple digit winner tomorrow, it's another brutally hard stage to pick a winner from. It starts relatively easy on paper, but I think it will be far from it. Everyone will know that a break is highly likely to win today's stage so everyone with stage ambitions will be battling to get in the break of the day and we could see an hour of very fast racing until the elastic snaps and the break goes. By then they may well be half way up the first climb of the day, the Cat 2 Col de Manse. This is the same hill they went over at the finish yesterday, but coming at it from a different, harder side. 

I think a similar sized break will go tomorrow, about 12-15 guys and there should be 5-10 maybe that get over the top of the Côte de Laffrey with 20km to go, and we could even have a solo raider clear heading in to the last 20km charge to the line. 

The stage is really lumpy with the 6 climbs listed above along the way at pretty regular intervals. As long as there are no clear dangers in the break, then Sky and T-S may well be happy to let it go.

It really is a stick a pin in the list time again, and I am just going to pick a few at big prices and maybe look at the members of the break when it forms to decide on some in-play choices too. 

First up on my hit list is Liewe Westra. The Astana man has been active, notably when he attacked the peloton on the run to the finish on stage 3 and it took a while to reel him in. This sort of terrain is perfect for him, the climbs are not too long but are short and sharp and he could well be one of the few left at the front hitting the top of the Laffrey. Winner of the final stage of the Tour of Catalunya over the lumpy finishing circuit, we could well see him excel on this course, as long as he gets in the break. He is nearly 6 minutes down so should be given some rope. With him away, Astana won't chase either. At 40/1 he's my first pick. 

Alex Howes is a favourite of my boy after he gave him his bottle at the Scheldenprijs a few years back and I hope to be cheering him along tomorrow. Garmin have had Hesjedal and Talansky being active but Howes could well get his chance tomorrow on a course that should suit. He announced himself to the world with a superb ride in Amstel Gold two years ago and at 150/1 I thought it was worth a small investment that he has a go tomorrow. He finished Stage 4 in between Froome and Contador in the front group so he clearly is going well. 

Chavanel tried a number of breaks but missed the main one but I think he might be worth another shot tomorrow. His price is slightly better than yesterday at 16/1 but I think I'll wait to see if I get a bigger price on Betfair tomorrow morning. Thomas Voeckler tried a few efforts today but they were pretty mediocre and he faded and dropped out the back on the final climb. He may have been saving himself and losing some time to get more rope tomorrow but I can't see why he is such a short price for the stage at just 6/1 with BetVictor (8/1 with Bet365). I'm not sure he'll get up the road tomorrow and if he has a few decent climbers/sprinters types with him then he'll be beaten to the win.

Bakelants said this after today's stage: "I hesitated when Trofimov went. I should have gone with him, but I decided to stay with the group. We didn’t really cooperate behind him. So in the end he won. In the last 3 kilometers on the descent I tried to make a small gap to try and secure a place. But OK, it didn’t work out. In the end I went for the sprint. I earned 7th place, which isn’t what you want after working hard in a breakaway for such a long portion of a stage. But, it is what it is. It shows that I have the condition to be there in an important action, which I have also shown at other races before this. We will see in the next days if there will be a possibility to get in a breakaway and try to attack and win the stage.” So he clearly is disappointed with his result and is keen to right the mistake, so I wouldn't be surprised if he gave it another go tomorrow. At 66/1 he is worth a small stake too.  

Two more lottery picks then are Pierrick Fedrigo at 80/1 and Chad Haga at 200/1. Fedrigo hasn't had a great race so far but can be a dangerous rider on a stage like this. He finished a good 8th place in the lumpy stage won by Chavanel in the 4 days of Dunkirk recently and won the Paris Camembert last year, beating Pierre Rolland in the breakaway of four that fought it out. at 80/1 he is worth a stab. Finally, a lottery ticket 200/1 shot in Chad Haga. The young American has been riding very well in this race, finishing right at the front of Froome's group today. The top placed Giant Shimano rider is 5'28" behind Froome so is far enough back to be let go and close enough to make getting in the break worth it as he could move up quite a few places. 3rd in the US nationals recently, he's my 200/1 fun bet for tomorrow.  

Late last night Lars Boom was available to back at 160 on Betfair and that was too big a price to ignore, he is only 66/1 with the bookies. I had a small 0.3pts bet on him. Same for Greg Van Avermaet,  400s was just too big for someone who is 50/1 best price with the bookies; 0.2pts win.

Recommendations:

Liewe Westra - 0.3pts each-way at 40/1 with Betfair Sportsbook

Jan Bakelants - 0.2pts each-way at 66/1 with Bet365

Pierrick Fedrigo - 0.1pts each-way at 80/1 with BetVictor

Chad Haga - 0.1pts each-way at 200/1 with Bet365

Alex Howes - 0.1pts each-way at 150/1 with BetVictor

Lars Boom - 0.3pts win at 160 on Betfair

Greg Van Avermaet - 0.2pts win at 400 on Betfair

 

Stage 6

Stage 6

Grenoble to Poisy, 178.5kms

Again, this looks like it should be one for the sprinters but with four little collines to get over in the last 25kms or so then anything could happen again. The peloton takes a breather as they head north towards Annecy with the large mountain challenges of the weekend stages looming on the horizon. 

 

The stage has big breakaway written all over it again with a  rolling,  lumpy profile for the first 10km or so. After 89kms they crest the Côte de la Bétaz,  a 4th Cat bump of 1.5kms at 4.4%.

After the descent it's pretty flat for the next 50km or so until they reach the series of bumps on the run to the finish with 25kms to go. First up at the 156kms mark is the Cat 4 Côte de Marcellaz-Albanais,  which is 4.6kms at a gentle 4.1%. There's another uncategorised bump at Chavanod just 6km later where Chava might get the nod to attack (sorry...)

With 9 km to go they start on the final categorised climb of the day. The Côte de Ronzy, it may only be 1.7km long but it's punchy at 6.3% average and should be the launchpad for the late moves that could decide the stage. But what you can't see from the profile above or on the Mountains list above is that there is one major obstacle for them to overcome. Inside the last 3kms they have to get over quite a steep ramp up towards the Flamme Rouge that hits 15% in places and averages around 9%.

The Cote de la Route des Vignes should be enough to remove some of the out and out sprinters (not that there are many here) and looks more suitable to a puncheur. Normally you would say step forward Simon Gerrans. This should be his sort of finish but he has been pretty awful all week, rolling in another 10mins down today. Maybe he has been sandbagging and treating the week like a training ride with just this stage in mind, but his lack of competitiveness and the fact he is being dropped so easily has me worried that he could struggle again on the two categorised climbs. 

Sylvain Chavanel is the second favourite at 12/1 with Paddy Power and he too has been a bit disappointing this week. He came in with great form and ambitions to do well but has been well out of the action so far. You can see him try a trademark attack with 2km to go but I'm not sure I want to back him at just 12/1. I think the stage will come down to a reduced bunch of about 60/80 guys hitting the last climb with 2.5kms to go and it will be every man for himself again. I am just going to pick a few fancies as I have no real strong convictions on any of them to be honest. 

One I do like though is Daniel Moreno, I'm willing to give him another chance at 21/1 on Betfair, he could skip away on that steep pull with 1.5km to go. Katusha have now won two stages in a row with Trofimov and Spilak so the confidence will be high in the camp and Moreno will not want to leave without at least giving it a go I think. The last two stages look set to be GC battles so this could be his last shot. 

Romain Bardet has been riding very well and finished 5th on today's stage and also finished 4th on the tough 2nd stage in Bayern Rundfarth recently which featured a very steep finish. He may well be involved tomorrow too and looks big at 50/1 (he's only 18/1 with Bet365). 2nd in the hard stage 4 of the Vuelta Catalunya ahead of Contador and Rodriguez and Quintana and winner of the Valence Drome Classic in March with a perfectly timed attack with 3km to go. I think at 50/1 he could be in with a big chance and have backed him each-way. He is only 5" behind Kangert for a top 10 place so the time bonuses should move him up if he can take some, so some extra motivation there. 

There could be a bunch of guys like Gallopin, Vichot etc who could be involved if they can get over the final climb but I'm going to leave them I think. My final pick though is a man who can get over these sorts of lumps and will be very hard to beat if it comes to a small sprint on the last flat kilometre. Arnaud Démare has history of getting over these kinds of finishes such as in stage 2 of the Four days of Dunkirk which he won. He and his team are smarting after missing out on winning the stage that he was hot favourite for so will be fired up to make amends tomorrow. At 22/1 with Paddy Power he was worth a win bet. 

I wouldn't be surprised either to see the two Giant-Shimano guys up there at the finish either, Nikias Arndt and RJ Van Rensburg are two very strong riders who can sprint and do the short punchy climbs. Maybe Arndt will even work for VR this time around. At 40/1 and 50/1 they were worth small stakes too. (edit, 09:21: scratch RJVR off if you haven't backed him already, unfortunately I've just seen he crashed yesterday and is in a lot of pain. He has signed on though but Arndt might be worth a shot on his own). 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Arnaud Démare at 22/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Romain Bardet at 50/1 with Paddy Power

1pt win on Daniel Moreno at 21/1 with Paddy Power

 

0.2pts each-way on RJ van Rensburg at 50/1 (don't take this now if you haven't yet..)

0.2pts each-way on Nikias Arndt at 40/1

Stage 7

Stage 7

Ville La Grand to Finhaut Émosson, 161.5kms

Things are getting serious now and the two last TV stages should be exciting viewing given the amount of challengers still in contention. They head in to Switzerland for this stage after leaving the shores of Lake Geneva and head towards Martigny and the final climb up from Finhaut. 

 

This is a really hard stage, starting with the Cat 2 Côte des Gets after just 22kms (10.3kms at 4.9%), followed 22kms later by the tougher Cat 1 climb of the Col du Corbier (7.5kms at 7.5%). 16kms later and they are climbing again, this time the Cat 3 Pas de Morgins (6kms at 5.6%). 16kms of descending down to Monthey and a chance to catch their breath on the 20km flat run along the valley, taking in the intermediate sprint after 126kms. 

The finale for the stage is going to be well worth watching though as they tackle a two-part final climb. First up is the tough Col de la Forclaz (12.6kms at 8.2%), then a quick 10 minute descent before they hit the final climb up to Finhaut-Émosson. The 10.2kms at 8% will test all the riders and should decide the final GC places. This is a really hard climb, and the 8% is a bit false as the first kilometre averages only 1.4%, then they hit a steep part for a kilometre at 9.2% with parts hitting 17%, then it goes back down to 3.9% for the next kilometre. But from there it really kicks up - the next 8kms average around 9% with several sections in the double digits.

There is a slight dip with 1200m to go to 'only' 6.2% but then they face something brutal at the finish - 200m at 28.3% average! Yes, 28.3, not 8.3. That is one of the steepest slopes in cycling and they have to do it after 161kms and 10kms at 8%! It will require a very large rear sprocket and a 34 or 36 front chainring or you'll be walking! Sorry - scratch all that, the official communique that has come out just last night from the organisers has a completely different finish with no 28% slopes. It now looks likes it finishes at the 6.2% section, making a big difference to the way the finish is going to be fought out.

How poor though to make such a massive mistake in the profiles that have been on their site for months.. these are the guys who organise the TDF, I'm off to check that they don't have the finish on the Mall in London showing a 20% gradient.....

It is a stunningly beautiful finish to the stage though with views of the lake and the Chamonix valley below.

 

Stage 7 was hugely frustrating for me. After picking out Westra and Bakelants the previous day and Bakelants two days running, he only goes and wins today when I had nothing on him. Very annoying. A rough day for Froome who came down in a little crash in the last 10kms but thankfully it wasn't a day that the GC men were going to be scrapping it out at the finish and the peloton sat up and waited for him to get back on.

He has cuts on his hip, elbow and abrasions all along his back and shoulder but he says he is ok and it shouldn't be a problem tomorrow. It could be a different story once he has had it cleaned up and the adrenaline subsides, he might find that he is actually quite sore and may have a difficult nights sleep.. The bookies think it might be a problem though as he has drifted from 2/7 this morning to 8/15 now, the biggest price he has been since Monday. 

There is a good chance that a break will stay away as riders are getting tired and Sky have worked hard all week and may just be starting to fatigue. Froome would be happy to see a break take the bonus seconds so Sky may not chase a break. Having said that though, I think his rivals see an opportunity with Froome's injuries to go for it though and T-S, Belkin and Lotto should look to push it hard to the last climb. 

Even though there is a good chance of a break staying away, the bookies also find it impossible to split Froome and Contador for the stage, Skybet go 7/4 choice, Boylesports go 2/1 choice, Paddy Power and BetVictor make Contador favourite, and I think based on the images of Froome's injuries and knowing the effects it will probably have on his body tomorrow, I think I would have to side with Contador too in that match bet. I think Froome will still be right up there but will be doing the following and hanging on rather than the instigating and attacking I think. He should be able to finish close to Contador though and take it to the final stage where he will have had another night to recover.

Contador has looked super strong, super agressive and is full of ambition. I've never been a big fan but you can't deny he is exciting to watch race and he is certainly throwing it down to Froome in this race with his attacking style. I think he will smell the blood in the water and go for Froome tomorrow, he has a great opportunity now to put him under real pressure. I think the 2/1 has to be taken for Contador, this is the big chance for Contador and I can't see him letting up tomorrow. His team have had an easy ride for several days now so they should be relatively fresh and able to help him get to the final part of the climb with a much reduced group. From there it is up to him and it seems there are very few who can match the accelerations of Froome and Contador, so if he goes and Froome isn't 100% then you'd think there can only be one winner. That final 200m is as steep as the climb up to the Muro de Guardiagrele in Tirreno-Adriatico where he rode away from Simon Geschke almost in slow motion. 

Vincenzo Nibali is saying that he is getting the 'sensations' back in his legs and that he is warming up nicely. He will probably do like he did on Monday though, hold on until it really explodes and then slip back a little, this finale is too steep for him I think. Wilco Kelderman though is flying and is full of confidence, nicking back some time Thursday to put him on the same time as Contador, just 12" back from Froome. He is likely to be right up at the front too, but will the exertions of the past month catch up with him? He seems full of energy though and is a likely candidate to chase them home in 3rd, maybe even better if he attacks them as they shadow box a little early. 

Jurgen Van Den Broecke is also going really well and looks confident and comfortable. He is only 23" off a podium place and only 35" off the lead so he too will be looking to make his mark tomorrow. He was full of love for Froome today, talking to him towards the end of the stage and tickling his fingers after (above) but there will be no niceties tomorrow when the battle heats up. 20/1 for the stage looks big but I fear he could be a 4th to 6th place man again tomorrow. Although the new finish will suit his frame a lot more than the 28% gradients we thought it was at the finish.. 

I think Talansky could go well tomorrow too but again will be in that 4th to 6th place group I think so 20/1 doesn't really appeal. One that leapt off the page as soon as I saw it on Betfair though was Romain Bardet at 120 on Betfair. He is only 40/1 with the bookies and I was tempted to back him at that price. I just had to have some of him at 120 and have had 1pt on him at 120 to win a very nice sum. I will look to trade out of it at a lower price if possible, but I think that is an amazing price for a rider that could well be in the last 20 or so guys on the climb coming to the last few kms. 

Other than that, there are few others I think that will get a look in at the finish, the pace from T-S and Sky will have seen off most long before the last 5kms or so. Dani Moreno might be there or thereabouts, but he has been dropped long before he has been able to get in a blow so far. Winner of the Angliru stage of the Vuelta last year, Kenny Ellisonde would be someone to watch out for but he struggled on the climb on stage 5 and lost over 4 minutes, so I'm not sure about him. Adam Yates might surprise a few at 40/1 and Dani Navarro at 125/1 could be in the last group also and looks very big.

Recommendations: 

2pts win on Alberto Contador at 2/1 with Boylesports

1pt win on Romain Bardet at 120 on Betfair

Match Bets:

Alberto Contador to beat Chris Froome - 2pts win at 8/11

Romain Bardet to beat Tejay Van Garderen - 2pts at 8/15

Adam Yates to beat Leopold Konig - 1.5pts at 2/5

 

Stage 8

Stage 8

Megeve to Courcheval Le Praz, 130.5kms

Well there we go. Froome was clearly more injured than he was letting on and just as I suspected he might he suffered a lot today and couldn't respond to Contador's brilliant attack. He tried to ride tempo back to him but the bird had flown and he was left floundering 20" back, not even able to muster the strength to sprint at the end to try to reduce the deficit. He said his thighs were 'blocked' apparently, guess they felt heavy and lifeless as I expected them to. It meant a good winning match-bet but unfortunately they had let the break get too much of a lead, so Contador's move, which should have been a stage winning one only saw him take 4th position. Bardet rode well and was in the last group of favourites on the road when Contador attacked, finishing '6th' of the GC men, so not far off at all for a 120/1 man.. 

The final stage then and after a quick downhill start for 14kms or so they start with a tricky little climb up the Côte de Domancy. It may be just 2.5kms long but it's a 9.6% average but it actually extends on past the Cat 2 KOM point for about another 7km until they reach Megeve. An easy downhill for 10km and then it kicks up again for 13.4kms at 5.2% up the Col Des Saisies. 

This is followed by a long (30km) descent to Alberville and about 30km on the valley before they hit the final climbs of the race. With 106km gone they hit Moutiers and start up the Côte de Montagny. This is 8kms long at an average of 6.5% and we are sure to see some fireworks on this climb as those with stage ambitions and GC time to make up look to steal a march before the final climb. 6kms of a descent and then up the final hill to Courcheval le Praz, a 5.9km drag at 6.2%. 

I really don't know what to make of tomorrow. Froome has to attack, but with a win time bonus of 10" for the stage winner he has to win by 5" if Contador chases him home in second. It's a big ask to drop Contador considering how beaten up Froome looked today. Can he ride away from him? He couldn't on Monday's stage when he was 100%, so what's to say he can do so now? The most likely scenario is that Sky will push a vicious pace and reel in what ever breakaway has been away on the final climb, Froome needs the bonus seconds. The two of them will mark each other you'd think all the way to the last few kilometres and may well drop all bar possibly Talansky who is getting better as this race goes on.

If Froome attacks, Contador will follow, but if it comes to a sprint Froome will probably win, unless he is hampered by his injuries again. He looked under a lot of pressure today and if Bertie attacks him again with 500m to go, will he be able to go with him? It's going to be fascinating, we may well see Froome win the stage and Contador take the overall. I think both will be pretty happy with their week then, Froome with 3 stage wins and the knowledge that accident aside he had Contador in his pocket. Contador will take the overall and get a great confidence boost ahead of the TDF.  It's one to watch and enjoy I think as I don't know which way it will go.. Froome is marginally favourite at 9/4 with Paddy Power with Contador 3/1. I really can't see any of the other GC men involved, Nibali isn't good enough, Van Den Broecke can't respond to the accelerations, Kelderman is looking like the last month's racing is catching up with him. If I was to go out on a limb though I think Froome will win the stage by a second or two from Contador and Contador will take the overall. Talansky to fill the 3rd spot.