Tour de Romandie - Overall Preview and Stages

Stage 1 - Ascona to Sion, 200.9km 88.5km

Wednesday April 30th

 

 

  

Stage 3 - Le Bouveret to Aigle, 180.2km

Friday 2nd May

I hit the post again on stage 2 with Nizzolo as he finished 3rd, but at least we landed the place money at 7/1. It was a strange sprint by him though, he had to come from very far back with about 300m to go, found himself at the front and decided to take it up too early. He did one of those sitting down sprints, so you know he was out on his feet and he did well to hang on to 3rd, just!

Albasini took another great sprint, but the favourite Kittel was well beaten again, he was a dreadful price at 5/2 and I hope none of you backed him. Hofland and Mezgec were outside the top 10 too but Mezgec helped land my 2.8/1 treble by beating Kittel. It was my 3rd top three result out of three, hopefully we can notch a winner in the last few stages.

Stage 3 is going to be the first real test for the GC candidates as they crest four Category 1 climbs on a tough day of climbing. The significant news though that has to be kept in mind ahead of the stage is that the forecast is pretty bad again for tomorrow, with cold temperatures and snow on the climbs. There are rumours that the course may be amended again if the weather gets too bad, but so far they look to be quite confident that it will go ahead as planned. If will make things tougher though on the climbs and will make it a real hard day for some. Descents could be very tricky too..

They start by heading from Le Bouveret by the lake and after 15kms pass through the finishing town of Aigle before heading south towards Martigny. They are climbing ever so gently for the first 45kms or so but they suddenly the road rises up as they hit the 1st Cat 1 climb of the Col des Planches. This will be a real hard test to start the day off and a lot of riders will be in the autobus very early on in this stage I think. It rises to a height of 1411m over its 9.5kms, averaging 9.7% with some really steeps parts.

The descent is tricky at the top with a number of tight bends but the rest looks to be straight and fast for about 9kms, but it could be quite dangerous if the weather is bad. Then it's upwards again as they climb to Champex-Lac. This is a longer climb at 15kms at an average of 5%, but it gets tougher in the second half of the climb with the last 9kms or so averaging 6.5%. Anyone that was starting to suffer on the first climb will really struggle on this longer one and could be in for a long day in the saddle.

It's a fast descent then for about 12kms to Martigny and a flat run of about 30kms more before hitting the figure of 8 loop on the way back to Aigle. First up they head west to take in the climb of Les Gilettes, 9.9kms at 7.4%, and then shortly after that they start the final and crucial part of the stage with the climb up to Villars-sur-Ollon. The start of the climb is the hardest as the first 10kms average 6.5%, and if the GC men's teams decide to push it then there might not be very many left at the top of the climb. It's 15km long in total at an average of 5.6% as it eases off in gradient a little at the top.

Then it's a fast charge down towards the finish for the last 15kms. With 4kms to go it flattens out, goes through a sharp right with just over a kilometre to go and then hits a little rise with 300m to go which could be the platform for the stage victory if there isn't a lone rider out front.

I think the race will whittle down climb by climb and even though the last climb may not be the hardest, they will have had 150kms of hard racing in their legs by the time they hit it. I think there could be 30 or so guys come to the last climb together and we may see 10-15 get over the top together and head towards the finish. That is, unless we get a lone breakaway on the last climb, as with a fast descent and only 4kms to go on the flat, they have a chance of making it.

Looking at the early odds that have come out it would seem  that the bookies were impressed by Vincenzo NIbali's attack on Tuesday as he has opened the 4/1 favourite. This is very short but let's look at whether it's worth backing. Up until Tuesday Nibbles hasn't really shown much this year. I fancied him to take off on the descent and he duly did. It's a lot easier attacking on the descent like that though than attacking going uphill, especially if he is still not at his peak. And he may well attack on the descent again, but I feel he may have to attack before the top to try to gain extra time as he may not be able to hold off the chasers again. He is certainly a rider who excels in the cold and the rain as we have seen before, like in the Giro last year, but will he be prepared to take too many risks?

With the first 45kms or so being relatively flat and lots of riders wanting to try to get away early, expect a frantic opening to the race. An early break will go, probably of 6-8 guys and they should probably build up a healthy lead over the first two climbs. But with many of the climbers and GC hopefuls marking this stage down as the crucial one, expect the pace to ramp up on the third  climb up to Les Gilettes. At nearly 10kms at over 7%, this is where the pace should really shoot up and a first major selection is made. Anyone that gets dropped on this one has very little chance of getting back on as the next climb starts immediately after the short 8kms descent. This final climb isn't that hard though, the first 10kms are the hardest at 6.5%, so we might see slight outsiders giving it a go early on in a bid for glory as the GC men watch each other.

Bet365 have 4 riders next on 7/1 - Talansky, Spilak, Costa and Froome. In order - Talansky is not good enough I think to leave these guys behind and will be outsprinted by a few of the better sprinters amongst the climbers if it comes to the most likely scenario, a small bunch finish. Spilak has a great chance tomorrow - an aggressive attacker, he lit up the 4th stage last year and only Froome was able to get across to him. They worked together well and it looked obvious from a fair way out that he was going to be given the stage. I expect him to be aggressive again tomorrow as he wants to win the GC and needs to take time ahead of the TT. He may attack early on the steeper parts but more likely he will give it a go with 3-4kms to go to the top.        

Rui Costa also has a very good chance at tomorrow's stage. He took 3rd in that stage 4 last year, winning the 'bunch' sprint ahead of Valverde, Betancur and Peraud and if it comes to the descent and the finish as a small group he may well either attack on the descent (or chase after Nibali) or in a sprint he would be one of the favourites.

Finally, Chris Froome. Who knows really what sort of form he is in but his prologue was solid if not spectacular and he was up sprinting for bonus seconds today, finishing 5th. The word from the camp, and Richie Porte, is that Froome's number's and his form in training are excellent. He seems to be over his chest infection (if he ever had one) and if so then the other's could find themselves chasing his shadow on the final climb tomorrow if he presses the turbo button. He has a great chance of getting away on the climb, but will he be solo? I don't think Nibali will be able to stick with him and he might be expecting a Nibali trademark descent attack so decide to try to leave him behind on the way up. Costa could stick with him, as could Spilak and maybe Talansky. On the whole though, I don't think he will go solo and might find one or two faster than him at the finish.

Down the betting there are some interesting candidates - +-Peraud at 40/1 looks big but I don't think he will get away on the way up or will win the sprint at the end. Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche are two that interest me though a lot. Majka has been riding well and took an excellent 4th place in the overall at the Crit International, taking the young riders jersey and a good 5th place on the stage won my Mathias Frank. He could well be the foil for Roche tomorrow, attacking early on the climb to make the others chase. If they don't chase him down he has the ability to take it to the finish. At 40/1 he looked a good each-way bet to me.

Then we have Roche, his team-mate. He has very little miles of racing in the legs, but is in good shape. He will need to be getting to his best with the Giro just over a week away and we might see him attack  on the descent tomorrow. Depending on the make-up of the final group though he may well wait it out for the sprint as he wouldn't be the worst sprinter in the world. He is a little tight at 18/1 with Bet365 but let's see what price Paddy Power have him at and I'll update this a little later (as at 22:20 PP still hadn't priced the stage, think they are waiting on me..).

Tinkoff-Saxo spent a lot of time at the front today, which was a bit confusing as to who they were working for, but I think it was just a good training session ahead of more serious plans for tomorrow. Roche is feeling confident enough too, in this article on Sticky Bottle tonight he has said “I’m feeling good so far but tomorrow is a big test with four big climbs. Hopefully I will be up there tomorrow and be competitive on the stage.”

Others to consider? I think Kwaitkowski will finally feel the effects of a hard two weeks and may fade on the last climb. If he isn't on a great day he may actually work for Martin who could still harbour GC ambitions. That final climb isn't overly difficult and if OPQS can look after Martin till about 5kms from the top he may just hang in there and give himself a great shot of winning it in the TT Sunday. Mathias Frank has a good chance too, he is riding well at the moment too, winning that stage in Crit International ahead of Peraud and on home soil, inspired by his compatriots double win he may well give this a real go tomorrow. At 25/1 he is worth a small interest. 

Jacob Fuglsang could be one for the late attack at 33/1, as could Riccardo Zoidl - he is still a bit of an unknown quantity and may well be left slip away on the last climb. But this boy is a really good climber - 6th on the stage up to Mont Faron in the Tour of the Mediterannean this year on his way to 3rd place overall. It's only his first year as a World Tour rider, but on the Continential Tour last year he pulled off some very impressive results in the Austrian Alps. I'm hoping he does something tomorrow as I have him backed for the overall, but also the 40/1 for the stage looks appealing.

What about my dark horse, Nino Schurter, the MTB'er? 18th on today's stage, he could well surprise tomorrow too at 66/1. And don't forget Tommy Voeckler, he is likely to attack on that second last climb (or maybe even earlier) just so we can get lots of footage of him with his tongue hanging out and he shouting to himself. Can't see him being involved at the finish though. Van Garderen is still recovering from his crash in the prologue though and if it gets really hard or the surface is dangerous we may not see him finish with the leaders.  

So there could be any number of things happen tomorrow - a long, lone break could win it, but good luck with picking the candidates in that break! More likely though we will have a small group of 30-40 start the last climb together. The likes of Froome, Majka, Spilak might attack, Costa and Nibali on the way down. But I think 10-15 guys might come to the finish together and if it does, Roche, Costa and possibly even Albasini, who could be still there, would be the likely sprint winners. It could be a day for the men that can handle the cold and the wet and I am happy with my choices in that regard. Not a day to go mad with the stakes, but scatter a few small each-ways around I think.

There are some match bets that look good value to me though too, these are listed below. Why not post your 3 picks in the comment section below for tomorrow's stage?

 

Recommendations:

0.6pts each-way on Rafael Majka at 40/1 with Bet365

0.8pts each-way on Nicolas Roche at 18/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Riccardo Zoidl at 40/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Mathias Frank at 25/1 with Bet365

Match Bets - Roche to beat Kwiatkowski at 4/5, Rui Costa to beat Talansky at 13/8, Mathias Frank to beat Thibot Pinot at 1/2 and Riccardo Ziodl to beat Geniez at evens. Four x 2pt singles, 1 x 1pt fourfold that pays 13/1. All with Bet365

  

 

 

Stage 4 Fribourg to Fribourg, 174km

Saturday May 3rd

So Froome lit the race up today, responding to an attack from Nibali which didn't last very long.. Froome caught him, then raced away from him. Spilak was once again the only one able to respond to Froome, but once again, Froome was 'beaten' by the Katusha rider, in an almost exact repeat of last year's Queen stage. Froome traded below 1/2 in running in but I reckoned he would be outdone and got a nice 5pts of a pay bet off at 1.48 (risking just under 2.5pts).

It wasn't a great day for the stage bets, but they weren't far off at all - all 4 picks were inside the first 22 home with Mathias Frank not too far off the top 3 in 6th place. The match bets were awesome though, 4 out of 4 singles and the four-timer all landed returning over 17 points in profit. Spilak is in to 3/1 for the overall now though behind Froome who is 2/9 now with the TT to come on Sunday.

Stage 4 is a 6 lap circuit race that starts and finishes in Fribourg. Its 174km course does 6 laps of the 29km loop south of the city, taking in the 3rd category climb that is due south of Fribourg. It may only be a Cat 3 climb but it's still going to hurt given the exertions of the Queen stage the day before. The climb starts with a short 2.6kms ascent at an average of 4.9%, then it dips down for a little bit before kicking up again for 500m at an average of nearly 12% over a cobbled stretch of road. 

The stage is similar to stage 1 and 2 in that it could end in a sprint finish, but it will require the sprinters to be able to hang in there over the climbs 6 times around. It may not look like much on the map comared to the sharper points of the previous stage but the 12% section will really hurt and in total they climb over 2200m in the stage so it could see the race blown to bits if the pace is really high. I think there will be some really aggressive attacking for the last 2-3 laps as it is the last road stage of the race and many will have nothing to ride for in the final TT on Sunday. It is possible that we will see a small break or a solo rider get to the finish ahead of the main pack.

The bookies have once again priced it up though as if it will end in a sprint finish with Marcel Kittel the favourite again at 7/2 with Paddy Power, followed by Nizzolo at 9/2 best with Bet365, Albasini at 6/1, Mezgec and Hofland at 7/1. All very tight and if it does come down to a sprint it could be harder to pick a winner than you might think. Kittel is 7/2 and not odds-on as he should be in a field like this, and I agree as I think he might be found out again tomorrow. 

If the pace does shell Kittel and a few others out on the last lap (or even maybe before it) as they climb the hill. I think there will be lots of attacks on the last lap or two and we might see an escape group go. If that happens, then Jan Bakelants at 100/1, Tony Martin at 33/1 (stage hunting seeing as the GC is now well gone) and Oscar Gatto at 125/1 could be worth having tiny bets on. Maxim Iglinsky was one that I fancied too for tomorrow, saw he was 50/1, started writing this preview and about 20 minutes later he was 25/1 so I missed the boat on that one. I wanted to back him though so took some 25/1 anyway. 

As is is though, it is likely to come down to a bunch sprint, but I'm going to once again go against Kittel. Nizzolo is getting closer but just didn't have the class or the final power to overcome Albasini on Stage 2. He should be right up there in the top 3 to 6 tomorrow again but at 9/2 I don't think he is great value any more. Luca Mezgec screwed up his chances on stage 2 by getting himself into trouble on the descent to the finish and was way too far back at the finish and got blocked in his run and finished 13th. I think he will be going all out tomorrow to make up for it and to try to take something out of the race for Giant-Shimano. At 15/2 with Bet365 he was worth a bet, he is only 4/1 with Paddy Power (too short).

I wouldn't be surprised either to see World Champion Rui Costa have a go tomorrow, He seems to be riding in to form well and even though he suffered a lot on the climbs yesterday he hung in there and sprinted to a good 3rd place on the stage. He tweeted after yesterday's stage that 'tomorrow is a new day, I hope to get better of my shoulder' which I am guessing he means that his shoulder is getting better and he is looking forward to today's stage! At 33/1 with Paddys he could be worth an each-way.

So it could be anything again tomorrow, a long big break, a late attack on the final ramp 10kms from home or on the descent coming back. I have picked a few likely lads for that at big prices, but the most likely scenario is we will see a reduced bunch sprint finish and I hope Luca Mezgec can get it right this time. 

Recommendations:

0.25pts each-way on Jan Bakelants at 100/1 with Paddy Power

0.25pts each-way on Oscar Gatto at 125/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Tony Martin at 33/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Maxim Iglinskiy at 25/1 with Bet365

1pt each-way on Luca Mezgec at 15/2 with Bet365 

0.3pts each-way on Rui Costa at 33/1 with Paddy Power

Matchbet treble - Mezgec to beat Kittel at 4/9, Nizzolo to beat Hofland at 8/15, Iglinskiy to beat Kwiatkowski at 4/9. The treble pays 2.2/1 with Bet365 

 

 

  

 

Stage 5 - Neuchâtel to Neuchâtel, 18.5km

Sunday May 4th 

1 second. That's all that separates the top two on the GC going in to the final stage, an 18.5km time trial... 

Today's stage 4 went pretty good for me, my 100/1 shot Jan Bakelants got in the break of the day earlier than I could have imagined and took it all the way to the line. His attack on the 12% slopes with 10km to go shedding Marino and Vuillermoz to ensure a guaranteed payout with just three going to the line. Unfortunately, even though he looked strongest out on the road he failed to attack or muster any sort of sprint and finished 3rd of the 3. Albasini has had the Tour of his dreams with a third stage win today, easily outsprinting Voeckler. Still, it was a very nice 25/1 winner with Bakelants taking 3rd!

Back in the pack Kittel was once again shelled out the back as I predicted and NIzzolo was taken out in a crash with about 5km to go. Mezgec got held up in the crash but got back on and finished 5th in the bunch sprint, taking 8th place. Oscar Gatto, who I tipped at 125/1 took an impressive 3rd in the sprint for 6th place. Hofland and Kwiatkowski didn't start today meaning the Match-bet treble I had became a single, but that won too. 

It's a pretty straightforward challenge ahead of the riders tomorrow. A flat 8km stretch to warm up as they head away from the lake and towards the hills, is followed by a 2.25km climb up past Frochaux. It may only be 2.25kms but it's tough, averaging 8.3%. It is short enough though for the power men to really go at it. There are no really steep parts and it isn't long enough to tilt the advantage back towards the climbers. It is a perfect course for the likes of Martin and Froome, but it will be interesting to see how some of the others go in the search for the seemingly certain 3rd spot on the podium.  

There are two races going on in this stage, and Chris Froome is involved in both - the battle for the stage win and the battle for the GC. He wins the stage, he wins the overall, but he doesn't need to win the stage to win the overall, just finish ahead of Spilak by more than 1 second. Actually, you could say there are three battles, as there are only 12" between 3rd place Costa and 7th place Fuglsang! There could be a real big rearrangement of the top ten by the time this TT is done. 

The weather is good with a headwind forecast on the way out but a strong tailwind on the way back, expect Tony Martin to really put the power down on the way back on his 55 chain ring or whatever monster gear he decides to choose! He is the 6/4 favourite for the stage and it looks like a pretty solid bet. He will fly along on the flat section before the climb, has been climbing well lately so won't lose huge amounts over just 2.25kms and will rip up the road on the way back with the wind behind him. He got brought down in the crash today that took Nizzolo out but didn't look injured or anything like that. He was dropped in the Queen stage early on but took it easy from then on with the TT in mind. 

Chris Froome is obviously the big rival. He may have lit things up on the Queen stage, but it wasn't super impressive from him I thought. Yes, he accelerated away from the pack but then was rather easily caught by Spilak who had no problems staying with him and outsprinted him for the stage win. He will lose time on the flat bits but will make time on the hills, but will it be enough? I don't know. It's going to be very tight. He could lose 10-20 seconds on the flat out and back to the climb, but can he make up 20-40" on the climb? Maybe not. 

Simon Spilak is clearly in great form, the way he caught Froome and won the stage was very impressive. He isn't the worst time triallist in the world for sure, he was only 7" behind Froome in 5th place in this stage last year. In the Pays Basque TT last month he finished a very impressive 4th, just 16" behind Martin over 25kms on a course that included two climbs (and just 9" behind Contador and 1" behind Kwiatkowski). A performance like that tomorrow would not only see him challenge for a top 3 spot on the stage, but possibly even for overall honours if he can beat Froome. He is 12/1 for the stage with Bet365 and I think with what is at stake is a good shout for a top 3 place. 

Rohan Dennis is 10/1 second favourite though and although he is an excellent TT'er I feel that maybe he just won't have the same motivation as Spilak tomorrow, seeing as he languishes in 46th place. What about the others? Well, put simply, they are not  going to trouble the top two I think. Andrew Talansky could put in a big ride, but again doesn't have much to ride for, he should be safe enough for his top ten finish. Movistar have a number of guys who could go well tomorrow - Izagirre, Castroviejo or Intxausti, but I would expect 4th-10th for them. 

I think it could be really close tomorrow. Martin will be off long before the top 2 in the GC, so we will have an early benchmark to watch. I expect him to set a time that will not be troubled up until the top two in the GC hit the start ramp. Froome can run him close I think, but I expect Martin to win it from Froome and Spilak. Take the 6/4 with Paddy Power, far better than the 10/11 at Bet365. 

I hope you enjoyed my previews of the Tour of Romandie, I managed to pick a winning bet on every stage and with the Matchbets on Friday and the 25/1 place today I've finished nicely ahead again. Plus, the 8/1 on Spilak for the overall looks like landing the each-way bar an accident.

The Giro is up next, and there's some important news coming about that in the coming days. 

Recommendations: 

Tony Martin - 4pts win at 6/4 with Paddy Power

Simon Spilak - 1pt to finish in the Top 3 at 6/4 with Bet365

Match Bets - Talansky to beat Izagirre at 4/6, Martin to beat Froome, 8/15, Ludvigsson to beat Peraud at 2/5, Majka to beat Reihenbach at 4/9, Zoidl to beat Uran at 4/9, Fuglsang to beat Frank at 4/9. A six-fold pays 9/1 with Bet365.