Details

Published on Friday, 15 May 2015 22:50

Giro d'Italia St 8

Fiuggi to Campitello Matese

Saturday 16th May, 186kms 

After a sprinters stage and a lumpy Milan-San-Remo type of stage, we're back in to the hills again with a summit finish up to Campitello Matese. The Giro traditionally has a hilly stage on the second Saturday of the race and this year is no different, with an afternoon TV treat in store with another battle between the big three. 

I say the big three, but had written that intro before the misfortune that Contador met on stage 6. The peloton took it easy on him today out of respect for the Maglia Rosa but the gloves should be off again tomorrow. It might be a different story altogether tomorrow if he has to sprint out of the saddle to chase attacks and he admitted tonight that it is going to be tough.. It is up to Porte and Aru and the others to take up the mantle of attacking and making the race, there can be no sympathy and pity in bike racing. Just ask Andy Schleck about Chaingate...

In the winter Campitello Matese is a popular Ski station, but it should be clear for this stage, it's not as high as the Alps, which are still white in parts. It should be the setting for the favourites battle, part II.   

The Route

It's a tough day in the saddle today, another challenge for the GC favourites as they head in to the Appenines. We're heading further south-east but starting to head across Italy towards the Adriatic coast, with a nice easy start to the stage with a flattish opening 50kms. From the town of Sora at the 50km mark though they start climbing the climb to Forca d'Acero, a Cat 2 climb that goes on for almost 30kms! It goes in two steps, the first part is 16.4kms, then a little dip for 2kms before the final run to the summit at 80.7kms. It averages just 5%, so it's not the hardest of climbs, but the length can be a real killer. 

They then descend for the best part of 65kms with a couple of little rises along the way, untl they reach the town of Isernia at the 148.4kms mark where the second intermediate sprint is located. 25kms later they hit the final climb to the finish, a tough climax to a tough stage. 

The final climb to Campitello Matese has been used a number of times before in the Giro, with Bernard Hinault winning here in 1982 on his way to his second Giro win. It is officially clocked at being 15.65kms at an average of 5.9%, but it's not completely accurate as the first 2.5kms average just 1.2%, bringing down the average. WIthout that easy first part, the average is closer to 6.9% for 13.1kms. The part between km 10 and 14 are the hardest, hitting a max of 12%, but then it eases off to just 3.2% with 1km to go, then actually descends a little for the last 500m to the line. It is a twisty, winding final 10kms with lots of hairpin bends to negotiate and it should make for an exciting Saturday afternoon show.  

Contenders and Favourites

Very unlucky today, Lobato being pipped on the line by 66/1 shot, and the man I dismissed as not capable of winning on pan y aqua, Diego Ulissi. Another great result for a former doper this year. Matthews was apparently suffering from allergies today, dropped back to the doctor's car with about 60km to go and although he was there in the last 400m he just suddenly stopped like his chain broke. Gerrans took up the challenge and almost made it, finishing 3rd.

Nizzolo just about won his match bet with Viviani, they finished 146th and 148th! Phew! After Niemiec Wednesday I guess I deserved a piece of luck. Unfortunately, because Modolo sacrificed himself to set up Ulissi, he blew the big match bet versus Mezgec. He really should have won that as Mezgec finished way down in 38th place. With Formolo winning his match bet though we finished flat on the day. Contador did very well to get to the finish with the leaders, he even hung on to the the pink jersey, something I thought he might let go to Aru by dropping back in the last kilometre.. Let's see how he copes with this stage now tomorrow though..! 

The first summit finish on Wednesday on stage 5 showed us there is a definite split in the heirarchy in the race - it was Aru, Porte and Contador at the top level, with the rest a level below. Mikel Landa was absolutely superb though, hauling the three GC men behind him with a huge pull at the front that reeled in Dillier and almost reeled in Chavanel. The Movistar guys, Uran, Chaves, Atapuma, Cataldo etc just aren't able to respond to the violent surges - they grind on behind but the damage is done quickly. 

This is a similar sort of finish to Abetone, with a slightly steeper average at 6.9% for the main 12kms. The big difference is the finish. Abetone climbed all the way to the line, whereas here on this climb, it eases to 3.2% for 400m or so from the 1km to go mark and then the last 650m is actually downhill at an average of -1.6%, so if a small group comes to the line together again it will come down to a fast downhill sprint which should favour the likes of Aru.. 

It is likely we will get a similar sort of stage to stage 5 - the early climb is sure to see a big break go early, and depending on who is in it again, they could have a chance of making it all the way to the finish again. What was noticable in stages 3, 4 and 5 was how the various teams approached them. On stage 3, Tinkoff-Saxo rode at the front almost all day, for no apparent reason other than a show of strength. On Stage 4, it was Astana's turn as they ripped the race to pieces with five men at the front (and two up the road). On stage 5, they rode side by side for a long time on the final climb, neither team seemingly wanting to take it up, and that allowed the break to stay clear. 

One noticeable factor in all this is the lack of Sky's presence at the front of the race - no Skybots, no Sky trains for Richie, he has been very much left to his own devices so far. Ok, Nieve had a puncture at a bad time at the bottom of the climb on stage 5 and König came near the front for a little while, but really they have not been visible at all. Maybe it's all a game plan from Dave, to let them ride at their own pace until the final week when they may need to protect Richie's lead after the TT, but if it is, they are playing it very cool altogether. It could be a master-stroke by Brailsford, letting Astana and T-S punch themselves out on the first week.. Watching today's stage though it was interesting that we suddenly started to see five Sky riders visible near the front with 7kms to go, the most we have seen together on a hill yet in this race.. 

After stages 4 and 5, the question here again is will a break make it or not, and if it does, who could possibly be in it? With just five guys in the break Wednesday it looked like it should be controllable. Commentators on Eurosport (could have been Flecha, could have been Stephens, can't remember..), experienced guys, said it should be catchable, but as Mick Rogers once said, when Chavanel is in a break you know you're in for a tough day. There was a Mexican stand-off in the peloton and as the kilometres rolled by the gap wasn't coming down. 

Stage 3 was more chaotic with a huge bunch of guys up the road and Davide Formolo was strong enough and brave enough to go for broke as the gap dropped and it paid off. The break has a chance again this time, the parcours is perfect for an early break with the first climb coming 50kms in and going on for 30kms. Strong guys will build up a big lead here again. The rest of the stage is hard to get a good chase effort going on too as it rolls and undulates so much. And with a tough, longer stage to come Sunday, the peleton might be happy to let them go. 

But on the other hand, this is a summit finish and only the second one in the race so far. It also comes on the back of a hard, 264km stage which will have made for some very, very tired legs. With Contador possibly going to struggle now with his shoulder, Richie Porte had been made favourite for the overall race at just 5/4 for a while last night, but after today he has slipped back out to 2/1 best price. I think that's worth another 2pts bet to add to the original. He looks capable of marking Aru and Contador's explosiveness must surely be blunted now, so if he can stay within 30 seconds until stage 14 he should destroy them both in the TT and take a minute lead in to the final week possibly. And if he turns it on like I hope he can it could be even more..

I thought he had a big chance of winning stage 5, and only for the remnants of the break hanging on we'd have had a return on our 10/1 each way bet as he should have finished 3rd. He has looked calm and collected so far in the race even though he has been left isolated at times, when Contador attacked he didn't panic. When he did decide to close the gap he rode up to him with ease and never really looked in trouble. He is looking confident and looking very lean and fit. 

Could we see him take up the mantle of favourite today and go for the stage win? It's definitely possible. It's a sort of stage finish that should suit him again, but the gradients of the key final 3-4kms are a bit steeper than Abetone. If he does want to win it though he will have to attack from a way out as he will need a gap to hold on at the finish - he will not win a sprint finish as we saw on Abetone.. Bernie Eisel tweeted this then tonight and it added to my confidence in the wee man.   

Elia Viviani ist back in red, next two days Richie Porte will show, that he thinks pink ;-) More:... http://t.co/haeLJkzUb5

— Bernhard Eisel (@EiselBernhard) May 15, 2015

Fabio Aru has a monster team with him though and they will probably look to control things again tomorrow for all of the last climb. Landa, Tiralongo, Kangert, Rosa and Zeits will take up the train duties and will string things out until there are probably just 20 or so left in the front group. Landa has been superb and has a real chance of taking a top 10 placing in this race, possibly even top 6 if he keeps going until late on in each mountain stage. He could be the last man standing tomorrow again for Aru, but will Aru attack from a few kms out or wait for the sprint? He knows he has the beating of Porte and Contador in a sprint so he might just wait for that.. but there's a possibility that some others might be still there that can sprint too, he may have to go early. 

You should never write Contador's chances off of course, but I think it would be a bit too ridiculous if he was to win tomorrow. He is 6/1 joint second favourite with Porte but surely he can't be 100% and I can't be backing that, not sure I even want to back him each-way. I wouldn't be surprised if they were happy to get rid of the pink jersey tomorrow by a few seconds in order to take the pressure off for a few days.

Rigo Uran is 4th favourite but his price jumps to 25/1, showing just how wide open it is after the top 3 in the betting. Uran has been caught out both times so far that the top GC men have pushed it, but he reportedly had been suffering from a cold. Has he recovered enough though to stay with them this time? If he can hang in there until the finish he should be one of the favourites for the sprint. I'm not sure he can though.

Stefano Pirazzi is 25/1 also and the little Italian from Alatri was expected to do something today as the finishing city of Fiuggi is only 16kms from his home town. As it was he was unable to do anything, finishing in 60th place, but maybe he can go a bit better tomorrow and go on the attack on the final climb. 25/1 is too short for me though. 

Mikel Landa is 25/1 best price, as short as 16/1, but I think he will be on domestique duties so I'm not backing him. Roman Kreuziger is just 33/1 and I think he too will be babysitting and on domestique duties, so it's a no for me on him too. He will either be tasked to keep the pace at a certain speed for Bertie, or if Alberto is suffering he will probably be asked to look after him and pace him to the finish to try to reduce losses to still keep him in the running. 

Ryder Hesjedal ranges from 18/1 to 33/1 and i think that's a bit too short, he might be looking after Formolo. I think he is a rider to watch at some point in this race but maybe not tomorrow. Giovanni Visconti though is one that interests me at a nice looking 40/1 with Skybet. 4th on the stage to la Spezia behind Clarke and Montsalves, it's been a couple of years since he last won, but he seems to be riding well and took 3rd on a similar sort of stage in 2013 to Serra San Bruno. He could be still in there at the finish and would be one of the better sprinters, or he could even attack a little early on the climb. Movistar have had a pretty poor Giro so far and Visconti is their highest placed man on GC at 56", they might work hard for him tomorrow on a stage he is capable of winning.

Carlos Betancur - yes, Carlos Fatandround.. He is 66/1 for tomorrow, but I think he may be starting to show signs of getting some form and fitness - he finished 24th on today's stage, incredibly his best result since Paris-Nice 2014.. yes, he has not finished higher than 24th in any race in over a year.. But he was right up there today and not far off the front of the race. He might do nothing tomorrow, he might finish 20 minutes down, but I am curious to see how he goes and am going to have a small bet on him at 66/1.

I don't think Cunego, Zardini, Formolo, Ulissi or Izagirre will be good enough to go with the top guys, but Darwin Atapuma, Esteban Chaves and Leo Konig should go well too, could see all three in the top 10. 

Overall though, as you probably guessed by now, I think we will see Richie Porte finally go on the attack and take the stage win, as long as the break have not spoiled things again. Visconti can go well too, and Aru should be in the top 5, but Betancur will be one I'll be very curious about tomorrow.. He even came out tonight and said the finish today wasn't steep enough for him, sounds like he's feeling good!

Recommendations:

2pts each-way on Richie Porte at 6/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Giovanni Visconti at 40/1 with Skybet

0.25pts each-way on Carlos Betancur at 66/1 with various

Matchbets

Van den Broeck to beat Hesjedal - 1pt at 11/10

Ellisonde to beat Bongiorno - 1.2pts at 5/6 both with Bet365

Will Hill Acca - Porte to beat Uran, Aru to beat Contador, Nieve to beat Henao, Caruso to beat Cunego and Landa to beat Kreuziger - the five-fold pays 8.2/1, 1pt on it.