Details

Published on Friday, 22 August 2014 16:02

Vuelta - Other Betting Markets 

Number of Stage Wins? Top 10 Finish?

There are not as many specialist markets as were available at the Tour but all the same there are a few that are worth considering. Bet365 and Paddy Power as usual are the best with offering a wider selection of markets, so let's take a look to see if any of them jump out at us as bets. I'll be updating this with bets as I see them so make sure to come back from time to time. 

 I'll be updating this with bets as I see them so make sure to come back from time to time. 

Top 10 Finish

There isn't a great deal of value here for most of the top riders in the betting - 1/4 that Froome doesn't crash again and finishes in the top 10 anyone? You won't get rich backing those kind of bets. An interesting point to take from Alberto Contador's price to finish in the top 10 at 9/10 is that the bookies reckon there is just over a 50% chance he'll finish in the top 10, even though he is 4th favourite at as short as 7/1 to win overall. He either does very well, or he flops out - it's a difficult one to call that, as if he is in good shape and the break has healed up miraculously well thanks to being massaged by Oleg Tinkoff with Caviar and Champagne then it looks like an amazing price - 9/10 to finish in the top 10?! Why not post your thoughts in the comments box below as to whether that's a bet or not!?

Maxime Monfort is one that catches the eye at 10/1 to finish in the top 10, I've already spoken about him in my 'Outsiders' preview - Lotto are getting behind him, with even JVDB saying that he will stop and wait for Monfort if the need arises, he is their man for the GC. Not a bad time triallist and not a bad climber, he could come close to landing this at an appealing 10/1. 

Wilko Kelderman is tight at 17/20 with Paddy Power to finish in the top 10, but I think that could be a pretty solid bet if you don't mind taking odds on prices. He looked sharp and strong in Utah and is a very good TTer so he should be capable of getting pretty close to landing this. 

6/4 for Hesjedal, 2/1 for Evans, Pinot and Barguil, 9/4 for JVDB, I'd rather be laying than backing at those prices. 

Adam Yates at 6/1 and Zubeldia at 5/1 have chances to sneak in to the top 10 but I think I'll leave them for now. Phil Deignan could be a surprise top 10 finisher at a big looking 25/1, he showed in Poland he is in good form and has improved his time trialling. It's a big ask if he is supporting Froome, but if he is given a bit more of a free hand like in the Giro he could well go close. 

Recommendations: 

1pt on Maxime Monfort at 10/1 with Bet365

1pt on Wilko Kelderman at 17/20 with Paddy Power

0.5pts on Phil Deignan at 25/1 with Paddy Power

Top 3

The only bet that really jumps out at me is the 11/8 for Joaquim Rodriguez with Betfair, all the rest are too short for me. 

'To win/not win a Stage'

There's not a lot of value in most of the odds out with Bet365, plenty I would back at really short prices, and in a way they probably do offer value, but I just don't feel like risking a small return on a freak result whilst having money tied up for three weeks I could put to better use!

Riders like Txurruka (1/6), Cunego (2/7), Bennatti (2/9), CA Sorensen (2/7), Hesjedal (4/11), Gesink (2/9), Boonen (2/9), Felline (1/6) are all 'value' to not win a stage, it's free money. 

Some at slightly better prices that appeal to me:

Nacer Bouhanni to win 2 stages or more - Evens. Bouhanni has a great chance to win a couple of stages at least in this race with five flatish finishes and a dearth of out-and-out sprinters at the race. There may be some doubts about his motivation seeing as he is off to Cofidis at the end of the season, but he showed he is a class above ordinary sprinters again when winning his stage at the Eneco Tour. I think he has a strong chance at winning stage 2 and has a good chance of picking off another of the remaining four sprint stages. 2pts win.

Johan Esteban Chaves to win a stage - 5/2. Not great odds for an almost unknown rider riding for a team not known for their mountain goats, but Orica Green-Edge have a special climbing talent on their hands here. Stage winner at the Tour de Suisse to Verbier and Stage winner to Mountain high in California, he has shown he can climb with, and drop, some of the best climbers in the world. He looks like a Grand Tour stage win waiting to happen and the Spanish roads should suit him well. I think it might be worth a 1pt shot at 5/2.

Alejandro Valverde - this one is a hard one to call - the 11/8 on him not to win a stage looks appealing, had he not won the Clasica like he did just a few weeks back. Ordinarily, the 4/6 on him to win a stage would be a monster bet, he always seems to be able to pull off a stage win. But with his new role as guardian to Quintana will he be allowed chase stages? He can't go on the attack to try to win in case it puts Quintana under pressure and if there are bonus seconds on offer when a small bunch comes to the line he should be helping Quintana get them rather than try to steal them you'd think. It could backfire, but I think no stage win at 11/8 is worth a 2pts bet. 

Julian Arredondo to win a stage, 13/8. Arredondo could well be given freedom to chase stage victories and the KOM jersey, like he did to great success in the Giro and it's very possible that he gets himself in one of those breaks that makes it again. With 8 summit finishes and several other hilly finishes, he has plenty of opportunities. 1pt win at 13/8.

Philippe Gilbert at 8/11 to win a stage given his form in the last few weeks is tempting, but I think I'll leave it. 

Team Classification

 Movistar are the 11/4 favourites for this but I'm not sure I want to be backing them at that price. Yes, Quintana and Valverde will probably finish in the top 10 but there are too many of the rest of them with doubts over them that could see the team as a whole struggle in this competition. If they go drilling it from long ways out on some stages for Quintana, there might not be many of them left near the end of the big climbs and they could be big time losers which could hurt them.

BMC are the 9/2 second favourites and with Evans, Sanchez, Dennis, Morabito, Wyss and Gilbert, they should do well on the summit finish stages and the 'hilly' ones also. 

Belkin are the ones I like though, 2nd in the TDF team classification, a full 32 minutes ahead of Movistar, they have a very sollid core of strong riders who are capable of high finishes on a lot of the tougher stages. Kelderman, Tens Dam, Gesink and Clement are all capable of top 20-30 finishes and it's possible that Kelderman, Tens Dam and Gesink could even be inside the top 15. At 13/2 with Ladbrokes they offered a little bit of value to take the team title this time. 

Garmin Sharp, Katusha and Sky are pretty close in the betting around 7/1 and they are hard to split for sure. Who knows what sort of Sky team turn up and how many of them actually finish the race. Garmin-Sharp could literally be anything - Martin, Hesjedal and Talansky could rip it up or we could see some big disappointments. Katusha pin all their hopes on Purito and Moreno.. 

I'm happy to stick with a small bet here on Belkin at 13/2. Unfortunately the cowardly bookies are betting win only on this market as that is a backable each-way price, but I think it's worth 1pt win. 

Related Articles