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- Published on Friday, 31 July 2015 07:13
Vuelta Favourites and Contenders
A look at the leading players in the GC Betting
This looks like being one of the most competitive Vuelta's in many a year. Not what you want to hear when trying to pick a winner, we'd rather it was less competitive and it was a narrower field of possibilities! But as a cycling fan, this has all the hallmarks of what could be a monumental battle in the Spanish sun.
The Tour de France didn't disappoint this year in many ways, with drama and spectacular racing from the first stage to the very last. Where it did disappoint, for some of course, was how the race was seemingly over after just the first week with Quintana, Rodriguez and Valverde over two minutes down and Contador almost a minute down on Froome after just four stages. Team Sky had done a superb job with the strong squad they picked in keeping Froome safe, and not only safe, but well ahead of his big rivals on the dangerous opening stages.
Many expected that it might be Froome that might struggle in the opening stages and Nibali could be the one to take advantage, and that Nairo might have a nightmare on the cobbles. How wrong that was, as Froome, aided by an excellent team with Roche, Thomas, Stannard and co. looking after him, powered over the cobbles, as did Nairo, and despite trying on a few occassions, Nibali didn't get away..
And less than one month later, the top three on the podium in Paris are back to renew rivalries at the Vuelta. Froome is aiming for an historic Tour-Vuelta double, and also looking to go one place better than his two second places in the Vuelta in 2011 and 2014. Quintana will be desperate to make up for losing the Tour in the opening week, as he was clearly the better rider over the final week, but the damage was already done and irretrievable. He'll also be keen to make up for his awful mistake last year when crashing in the time trial while descending, a crash that was followed by another crash the very next day that saw him abandon with a damaged shoulder.
Alejandro Valverde is a past winner of this race, in 2009, but has also finished 3rd, 3rd, 2nd in the last three years and 2nd again in 2006 to Vinokourov. Will he be in support of Nairo once again, or will he be riding his own race? I think we all know the answer to that question. And then, we have Nibali - winner of this race in 2010 and runner-up to Chris Horner in 2013, who also has a point to prove after a relatively disappointing Tour which got going all too late for him. Nibali finds himself sandwiched in the betting between his two team-mates - Fabio Aru is the shortest price of the Astana Musketeers at 9/1 best price, Nibali is 11/1 and Mikel Landa, the Spaniard, is 16/1. It will be an interesting dynamic to see how they ride the race, will it be one for all or all for oneself?
And finally of course we have a whole host of interesting 'outsiders' - from a Tejay Van Garderen looking for redemption after his illness in the TDF, a Domenico Pozzovivo looking for a good performance in his first Grand Tour since his horrible crash in the Giro, Joaquim Rodriguez, Rafal Majka, Sergio Henao and the forgotten man of the pro-Tour this year, Jurgen Van Den Broeck.
It's a course that will challenge them all - a Team Time Trial to start will suit some, but not others. The individual Time Trial will see big time differences between some of those named above. But it's the mountains where this race is going to be won and lost, with no fewer than 9 summit finishes, all of which come in the first two week's racing. There are long and hard climbs, short and steep climbs, and everything else in between. And it also wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility that we get a surprise stage thrown in too, a little like stage 2 in this year's TDF which ultimately was what cost Quintana the Tour win. Maybe a wet day in the Pyrenees or in Andorra, or a wild and windy day with echelons while crossing some of the more exposed sections of southern Spain.
Whatever happens, it's sure to be a brilliant race and one that is extremely difficult to predict once again. I'll go through each of the main contenders and leading outsiders below to see what sort of verdict I can come to..
Chris Froome - Team Sky
3/1 Best Price (Paddy Power)
I said in my Tour preview that Froome has been hit and miss this year and he continued that sort of form in the Tour with a fantastic first week and a mixed last week where he was just about hanging on. The party line was that he had come down with illness in the final week, even so far as to come out with the overly dramatic statement that he almost pulled out on Alpe d'Huez (as if).
But let's face it, as much as we can reflect on the what might have beens with Quintana and whether he would have won had he not lost so much time early on, the fact of the matter is the race is won over three weeks and Sky and Froome were better prepared for it. There were questions over the team selection and in the final week they were creaking, no question about that, but they got it spot on in the first week and that laid a rock-solid foundation for the win.
His acceleration on stage 10 to La Pierre St Martin, once Richie Porte had blown things apart, was incredible, not even Nairo could stay with him, although Movistar claimed after that he had been feeling a little under the weather. It was a tactical ploy it seems by Sky to try to crush all their rivals by as much as possible by the 10th stage, that even if he faded a little in the last week and the likes of Quintana improved, he would have a large enough buffer to hang on.
Now this race is a very different proposition - there are four summit finishes in the first week alone, so all his rivals will have to be tuned up completely to a fast start this time, no chance to try to take advantage of a third week shift in power. Sky should do ok in the TTT and Froome should do well vis-a-vis his main rivals in the ITT, and we all know how well he can climb, so he has to be considered a serious favourite once again.
Factors to consider though on the negatives side - history is against him, like history was against Alberto winning the Tour/Giro double. Only two people ever have completed the TDF/Vuelta double, Anquetil and Hinault. This is a weaker team than he had at the Tour and some that did the Tour with him could be fatigued. And he could be fatigued - look at how tired Contador looked at times later on in the Tour with a Giro in his legs, he lacked zip and power. Froome had a hard Tour, despite how he made it look at times, he was on the limit on several stages, especially in the last few tough mountain stages.
He hasn't done any serious racing since the TDF, but has enjoyed himself on the Criterium circuit, getting to lots of places including Marcoles which involves a lot of travelling and late nights. Quintana and Movistar won't make the same mistake again and they know now how to crack Froome. Multiple attacks and early attacks - break the team long before the final, decisive climbs of the day. And the first week could be exceptionally tricky - not only will you have the usual first week nerves and crashes, but the temperature should be really high and with four summit finishes that week, any slip up or incident that delays you could mean serious time losses.
But all things going well, you would think he is probably going to be on the podium at the very least, but again, there's little value in him at just 3/1 best price. If fatigue hits him hard though we could see him slip down the ladder to some of his more fresher rivals.
Nairo Quintana - Movistar
11/4 Best Price (Boylesports)
Unlucky in the TDF or bad tactics and execution? Probably a combination really. It probably wasn't Movistar's fault if someone let the wheel go on stage 2 and caused the split, but they should have been more alert and should have done more to prevent the crucial time loss.
He was great over the cobbles, battling hard to stay with the leaders but he was a bit disappointing to not be able to stay with Froome on stage 10 and lose more time. He came in to his own in the final week and he was denied two stage wins by lone breaks by Nibali to La Toussuire and by Pinot on Alpe d'Huez.
In 2014 he started the Vuelta brilliantly with the powerhouse TTT putting him in 2nd place for the first 8 stages, and he moved in to the leader's jersey on stage 9. Then disaster struck in the ITT on stage 9 as he descended off one of the hills. He took a bend too wide and smashed in to the barriers which sent him catapulting over the bars. He was just about fit enough to start the next day, but another silly crash that he was caught up in on a straight road the next day saw his retirement. There is no doubt I think that he would have been a serious challenger to Alberto Contador for the win and he possibly would have won had he stayed upright.
Nairo looks to me like he lacks confidence in himself sometimes and seemed to wait too long at times in the Tour to make his move. On stage 19 to La Toussuire he waited far too long to attack Froome, there was only 5.1kms to go when he finally attacked. It was too late to win the stage and was too late to put enough time in to Froome. I think though that he will have taken a lot of confidence out of the last two mountain stages though as he took 1'50" off him in those two stages. There are plenty of mountains in this race, 9 summit finishes in total so he will have plenty of opportunities to attack Froome and the rest.
He took part in a number of the post-tour criteriums, winning two in Roeselare and Roosendaal, so he has kept the legs ticking over. It will be important to be ready for stage 2 again this time, but it won't be the winning of the race, it will be stages 7, 9 and 11 where he will come in to his own and where he should be looking to make his mark. The TTT should be ok for him, Movistar have a strong looking squad for it. He will need to have a decent lead going in to the final TT against the likes of Van Garderen and Froome though as they will take time out of him. There is one last chance if he needs to take time though, on the penultimate stage with its four Cat 1 climbs, but with the summit coming 20kms from the finish he will need to have a decent gap over the top to hold it to the finish.
I think he has a big chance of course - I thought he would win the Tour, but like him, was disappointed the way it turned out. He has a decent team here with him, should be in great shape after the Tour and should hopefully make no mistakes this time with splits and lack of attention. I'm really looking forward to seeing if he can make up for the disappointment of the Tour.
Alejandro Valverde - Movistar
9/2 Best Price (various)
Well - will he be supporting Nairo, or will he be looking after his own interests? He showed in the Tour de France that both is possible, but it didn't always look like he was 100% looking out for his team leader, although he did put in an awful lot of work for him in the last week. Valverde has won this race of course in the past, but the sequence of 3rd, 2nd and 2nd in the last three years will have hurt. He will be desperate to finish on the top step of the podium, but I think taking any step on the podium would be another excellent result in what has been an excellent season again. Love him or loathe him for his past, he is a brilliant rider and I can't help but admire him for how he races his bike.
He was very emotional after finally landing a podium spot in the Tour de France, saying it was his life's dream, and it is a weight off his shoulders. He will get the same boost as Quintana possibly from a good TTT but he will suffer in the ITT. I think he will be there or thereabouts in all of the mountain stages and has a superb chance of finishing on the podium yet again in this race.
I think he will support Nairo again, as he has more chance of winning the race for Movistar, but by virtue of his ability to finish high up in most stages in the hills he could well take that 3rd spot. The bookies aren't taking many chances with him though, they obviously think a podium spot is very likely too - 9/2 each-way means you just about make a tiny profit if he places 2nd or 3rd. Might be better value backing him to finish in the top 3 straight.
Fabio Aru, Vincenzo Nibali and Mikel Landa - Astana
9/1 Best Price (William Hill), 11/1 (Paddy Power) and 16/1 (Ladbrokes)
The Astana conundrum - even the bookies are finding it difficult to decide who should be the favourite amongst their three GC men - Aru, Nibali and Landa. If you looked across different bookies, all three of them are available at 9/1. Aru is slightly shading favouritism though around the 7/1 level, but was 9/1 with Hills (now is 7/1 best price), although Nibali is also available in several places at 7/1 also. Landa is the general outsider of the three though at around 16/1.
Nibali almost made the podium in the Tour after a dreadful start which saw him 1'38" down on Froome after just 4 stages and 6'57" down in 10th place after just ten stages. But he managed to rescue his race with a win on stage 19 to La Toussuire, although it was tainted by the fact he deliberately attacked when Froome had a mechanical which forced him to stop. He attacked from an awful long way out though, something like 60kms to go and not even a charging Quintana could pull him back, winning by 44". To finish 4th after where he was after 10 stages was a pretty impressive performance. He seemed to be getting stronger as the race went on. Nibali has gone well in Spain in the past of course, winning the race in 2010 and finishing runner-up to Chris Horner in 2013 (can we just say he won in 2013 too?!).
He wasn't supposed to be racing in this race originally though, and he has said on Thursday that he has no idea of the route. I think he will ride for Aru though, he proven that he can handle these Grand Tours, but tends to lose the head a little - he will benefit from Nibali's influence and experience.
Fabio Aru was a revelation in the Vuelta last year, finishing 5th overall and taking two stage victories and that came on the back of a spectacular Giro also when he finished 5th overall and took a stage victory. This year, he has been in pretty spectacular form again, finishing 2nd in the Giro behind Contador, taking seven top 6 placings, including two stage victories. His two stage wins came two days in a row on stages 19 and 20, the second one a very satisfying pick in my stage 20 preview.. He showed some fantastic form though in general, amazingly the lowest he finished in any of the 21 stages of the race was just 29th place in the ITT, and no worse than 26th place in any of the road stages!
But there could be his achilles heel in this race - the ITT on stage 17 - he could lose a lot of time to the likes of Froome, Van Garderen or even his team leader Vincenzo. There is no doubt he will be mixing things up and attacking with abandon like he tends to do, but will he be good enough to beat Froome or Quintana if they both stay upright and healthy? I doubt it. He has been away at his altitude training camp though in Sestriere again, along with Tiralongo, Rosa, Cataldo and Zeits. He should be ready for the climbing of the opening week.
The third member of the Astana trilogy is Mikel Landa and the Basque rider will be desperate to do well on home soil - will he get the support of his team to try to get the best result possible here, or will he be working for Nibs and Fabs? I think it will be the latter to be honest and the 16/1 doesn't really tempt me at all at the moment. If the team dynamic changes for whatever reason, then he might be worth looking at.
Experience and guile should say that Nibali is the bet of the Astana team, but with a Tour in his legs maybe he won't be 100%. Youth and exhuberance of Aru might just take him to a higher placing alright it might be interesting to see if any bookie offers a market just on the top placed Astana rider. He looks the best bet of the Astana lot at 8/1, that's worth 1pt each-way I think.
Joaquim Rodriguez - Katusha
16/1 Best Price (Bet365)
Joaquim Rodriguez won two stages in the Tour, but I still think it was a disappointing Tour for him. I think his two stage wins were good, but a little fortuitous... Ok, he flew up the Mur de Huy, but Valverde, Martin and other guys who should have been challenging him were badly positioned and still not at 100% fitness either. His win on Plateau de Beille came on the back of a break that was let build up a massive lead and he just happened to be the best of the climbers in the break on the day, denying us a 66/1 winner in Fuglsang who finished 2nd on the stage! He tried and failed to win the KOM jersey, in fact he really struggled on some of the big mountain stages.
29th place overall on the GC will not have been a result he'd have been aiming for pre-race, but he is now back on home soil and he has a great record in this race too, his last 5 years results read 4th, 4th, 3rd, 19th, 4th. He finished 4th last year, but was 1'35" behind Valverde in 3rd place and 3'25" off of Contador, although he was 1'23" ahead of Aru in 5th place. He is sure to give a good account of himself again, he always trys to give it his all, but we may see him resort to stage hunting or going after the KOM if his GC chances fade again. I think the 16/1 is terrible value, but watch out for him on stages 2, 4, 6 and 14.
Domenico Pozzovivo - AG2R
25/1 Best Price (Corals)
Domenico Pozzovivo had one of those crashes in the Giro where you genuinely feared for his life upon first seeing the incident, but thankfully it wasn't as bad as it looked and the likeable Italian was back on his feet in a few days. His return to the bike was also pretty impressive, starting the Tour de Suisse just one month later. Not only did he start, but he took a fine 2nd place on the 5th stage behind Pinot and finished a very respectable 5th place overall. Since then he placed 6th in the Italian national road race, but was 1'25" back on Nibali, and this week he is taking part in the Tour de l'Ain as a final preparation for the Vuelta.
The race won't start well for Pozzo though with the TTT, AG2R would be one of the poorer squads at this discipline. But from once the road starts to kick upwards though he should be near the front on most stages. He is the kind of guy that could launch an opportunistic attack while the main GC favourites look at each other and before you know it he'll be 30" up the road riding to stage victory. He is also one of those small, explosive riders (he's only 56kgs) who will like some of these tough stage finishes, expect to see him on the wheels of the likes of Valverde, Rodriguez and Quintana ready to pounce if the opportunity presents itself.
He has only partaken in the Vuelta once, in 2013, where he finished 6th and took two 3rd places on stage finishes, one on the second stage on the summit finish to Alto do Monte de Groba won by Nicholas Roche, and the second, more impressively and more significatnly in the 38.8km Time Trial on stage 11. That day he was 3rd behind Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara, but ahead of the likes of Nibali, Sanchez, Valverde and Majka. If he can reproduce a performance like that, and stay with the mountain goats on most of the big stages then he has a shot at a decent placing at a decent price of 25/1. He is going to have to free-style it a little in the mountains I think as he won't have much support but he's a dark horse for me that could surprise a few.
Tejay Van Garderen - BMC
33/1 Best Price (Betfred, Ladbrokes)
The news that started to filter through that Tejay was slipping off the back of the bunch on the very first hill of the day was pretty ominous sounding. There must be something wrong with him, he must be sick were the immediate responses to it and it was like a hammer blow to our bets on him, which had given us a lot of hope for the previous two weeks. He had ridden pretty well up until then, had sat in 2nd place for a lot of the race and although he was unable to go with Quintana or Froome when they realy put the hammer down, and his 3rd place was under attack from Valverde going in to the crucial final mountain stages, he was still in a podium spot when he had to pull out. We'll never know though how well he'd have fared as he had to step off in tears on stage 17.
Where that leaves him for this race is anybody's guess. Will he be highly fired up and motivated that he was sitting in 3rd place in the Tour with only four days to go? Will he be desperate to take revenge and look to make a mockery of his odds (which look big at 33/1 given that there's a TTT and an ITT where he will make up a minute or more on some of his rivals.)
But will a minute be enough to see him take a top 3 placing? I have my doubts this time. His climbing was ok in the Tour, but on the very first test on La Pierre St Martin he lost 2'30" to Froome, 1'26" to Quintana and 29" to Valverde. On the short climb to Mende on the stage won by Steve Cummings, he lost further time to all his key rivals, 30" to Froome and Quintana and 36" to Valverde. If he leaks time like this during a Vuelta that contains no fewer than nine summit finishes, he will find himself slipping further and further back.
As long as he stays healthy, he is an almost certain top ten candidate, a very possible top 6 and an outside chance at the podium, but I think he will need luck on his side this time. One to watch for during the race though as, if he is climbing and riding better than I expected, he might pull off a great TT and pull himself right in to the mix. The first week will be very telling for his chances.
Others
The race is most likely going to be decided amongst the guys named above, but there is still the possibility of a shock winner, but according to the betting, it's not going to happen. Taking the best odds available on the top 8 in the betting I've mentioned above, the over-round comes to 105.7%. That means that taking the best prices on the top 8 in the market, you will lose overall. It's a pathetic state of affairs that this is basically saying that there is a 106% chance that the winner will come from this lot, and that's on the best prices. Some bookies, like the jokers at 888Sport are operating to a 132% over-round on their top 8 in the market. Their top 8! There's another 190 riders in the race but they are already making a 32% profit if they take equal bets on the top 8 in the market.
Of course it doesn't work like that and they will take the bulk of their money on Froome and Quintana, but to offer such shitty odds on the other contenders is really poor. But who of the outsiders can win at big prices like Cobo a few years ago or Horner in 2013? Not many to be honest. Something interesting that caught my attention just today though was an interview Froome did with Matt Slater of the BBC. Apparently Froome says that he is worried about the nature of some of the stages, with the steady tempo for 90% of the stage and then an explosion up a final climb.
He said, and I already made this point, that he prefers the longer, more attritional climbs. He also made a comment about the road deciding who the leader will be and that it could be Henao or Nieve. It's interesting that he says that, either he is doubtful about whether he can pull it off following his Tour exertions, or he is bluffing. Either way, Henao is 50/1 and Nieve is 200/1 and maybe it's worth a small saver on them at massive prices on Betfair. He seems to be making a lot of excuses and Sky are downplaying his chances, but they would do that, wouldn't they.
Other than them? Well, Jurgen Van Den Broeck is an old favourite of mine and the fact he is 100/1 with the bookies tempts me a little, but he has not exactly been at his best in recent months (or years you could say). He seems to be very low in self-confidence and belief and since an underwhelming performance in the Giro, where he finished 12th. He abandoned the Tour de Suisse on the 8th stage, then went and won the Belgian Time Trial Championships a few days later. In the Tour de Pologne a few weeks ago he finished 5th in the Time Trial and 15th overall, but his 5th place in the TT was 1'16" behind Bialablocki the winner, so nothing to write home about. Top ten at best I think for JVDB.
Daniel Moreno, Dan Martin, Pierre Rolland, Darwin Atapuma, Johan Esteban Chaves, Rodolfo Torres, Andrew Talanksy - all decent riders who could go well on some stages, but they're not going to be troubling the podium here I think, even at tempting odds of between 125-200/1.
Conclusion
It's hard to get away from Quintana - the stars could align for him and he could win this race comfortably with several stage wins and the KOM jersey to boot. Easier said than done of course with a tough TDF in his legs, but he is the best climber in a race packed with tough climbs. He can hold his own in the ITT and he has a super powerful team with him to help take Sky apart before the final climbs of the race.
Froome seems to be making lots of excuses and there doesn't seem to be the confident vibe coming from him that there was for the Tour. He is also drifting somewhat on Betfair which is significant. On the other hand, Quintana is being backed solidily and the 9/4 is starting to disappear, I wouldn't be surprised if he went off 2/1 generally and shorter in places. I'm going to stick with Nairo and have had a bet on him to start with. I might go in again after the TTT depending on how it went or maybe ahead of stage 3 or 4.
I also like the look of Aru each-way, I think he has a good shot at the podium, and a fresh and motivated Pozzovivo could go well at a decent price.
Recommendations:
4pts win on Nairo Quintana at 9/4 with various
1pt each-way on Fabio Aru at 8/1 with Paddy Power (take the 7/1 with various)
0.5pts each-way on Domenico Pozzovivo at 33/1
