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Published on Thursday, 21 August 2014 23:13

Vuelta Outsiders 

The Outsiders that could shine in Spain!

Not only do we have a tremendous lineup at the very top of the betting with Froome, Quintana and Contador ready to do battle, but there are a whole host of others just below them who are ready to try to take their chance at glory. From former Tour winners to up and coming stars, one of them could seize their moment with so many doubts about some of the top favourites.  

Cadel Evans and Samuel Sanchez - BMC, 150/1 each of them

Cadel Evans comes to the Vuelta on the back of two impressive victories at the Tour of Utah, showing that he is in top condition ahead of his second Grand Tour of the year. He rode well at the start at the Giro, leading the way from stages 9-11, but tired towards the end of it. Age is catching up with the former Tour winner and we may see something similar here at the Vuelta.

What we did see though from his two stage wins the TOU is he has lost none of his guile or will to win, nor has he managed to improve on his celebration routine! He showed all his years of experience to steal the two stage wins, his second one in particular when he charged around the outside to slingshot through the final bend was pure class. He may come here as 'a protected rider' but I think he will struggle to make a big impact on the GC when the going gets tough in the third week.

He may be able to steal a stage win along the way though, he could get in a late break that contests a stage win and has the skills to do so. Let's hope he has been working on his celebration though, that weird A-OK, finger and thumb gesture followed by the thumbs up is embarassingly bad!

BMC come here also with Samuel Sánchez and apparently he is in really good shape and they are hoping for a good showing from him. He knows these roads well and has been building up to this all year. Granted, he hasn't really performed at the highest level for quite a while, but he could be one to watch over the next three weeks.

Sánchez finished second in 2009 and third in 2007, when he won three stages. The 2008 Olympic champion also counts a third-place finish at the 2010 Tour de France among his 14 Grand Tour appearances. BMC have said that Sánchez is the team leader, which is an interesting decision considering how well Evans rode in Utah. He had a pretty ordinary race in Poland, finishing 24th and I am struggling to see how he will make the leap up to a top 5 placing here. 

And what about Rohan Dennis?! The mid-season switch from Garmin-Sharp may have rubbed some of his former team-mates up the wrong way but he is probably keen to impress the new employers while showing his former what he can do.. Some wise heads I know are on Dennis at 1000/1 but that is a fair ask to lift himself above Sánchez and Evans in the team pecking order. His 98th in the Eneco Tour, coupled with his disappointing TT (10th) is putting me off him. 

BMC also have Philippe Gilbert who will be stage hunting, and judging by the form he showed at the Surrey Classic and the Eneco he should come close to picking off a stage or maybe even two. 

Thibaut Pinot - FDJ,  100/1 (200/1 on Betfair)

Thibaut Pinot comes here on the back of a hard Tour de France where he was made work really hard for his podium place. He was a real star though of the race, attacking on climbs, chasing Nibali, and time-trialling out of his skin to steal 3rd overall on the penultimate stage. According to FDJ though he is targeting stage wins and not the overall here, which could well be because is still fatigued after the Vuelta.

I can't see him holding back though and it seems to be in his nature to want to attack and ride at the front of races he is involved in, as long as the body is able. He hasn't raced since the Tour though, except for some money-spinning criteriums, so he should be well rested. We may see him ride within himself for the first week or so and we'll know by stage 6 just what sort of shape he really is in. He may fade in the third week if his exertions in France catch up with him but we may see an attack or two out of him along the way to light things up.

The Lotto-Belisol Boys

Lotto-Belisol come here with a strong looking squad despite Jurgen Van Den Broeck not riding for the GC. What a difference a few months makes with JVDB.. He went from coming 3rd in the Dauphiné to being an outside challenger at the Tour (until he crashed several times and got sick) to being 500/1 and not even considered it seems for this?! That's a hell of a slide.. He has said that after the Tour he just left his bike in the garage for 10 days just to recover, and after that went training in Majorca.

According to L-B directeur Sportif he is fit and ready though but apparently will only be stage hunting. Instead, they are saying that Maxime Monfort and Bart de Clerq are their two men for the GC, with Monfort in particular the main leader. If indeed Monfort is their hope for the GC he is a massive looking 1000/1 - Monfort is a talented rider who can pull off some big performances, but then again he has never really done anything at the highest level to suggest he is suddenly going to break in to the top 3 here. He did finish 14th in the Giro this year so it'll need a big step up from him to land the odds at 1000/1, but at that price I couldn't resist a tiny each-way bet. 

Bart de Clercq is an interesting one - he is a quality rider which we haven't seen a great deal of this year but is possible of pulling off breakaway wins and can go well in the climbs. L-B say that he had two big objectives this year, the Tour and the Vuelta, and seeing as he didn't do much in the Tour (left after stage 8) then the pressure is on to deliver in Spain. They seem to think that De Clercq will like the two time trials, especially the first one, but like Monfort I think it's a big ask to ask them to go toe-to-toe with Quintana and Froome.

Haimar Zubeldia & Julian Arredondo - Trek Factory Racing,  500/1 and 250/1

It seems a bit strange that the guy who finished 8th in the TDF and 7th in the Clasica and is on home roads is 500/1 and double the price of his young colleague. Yes, granted, no-one saw Zubeldia at all at the Tour de France, he was wearing the new Trek Cloaking Device, but still, surely he can muster another top 15, possibly top 10? Should be be 500/1? Well, yes probably - just because he is the most boring rider in the world and will never do anything to try to win. 

Julian Arrendondo won the mountains jersey in the Giro and took a stage and a 3rd place, but finished way down in 61st place. He way well go after the KOM jersey again here, it is possible that he can do enough breaks and good stage finish placings on different days to suck up points. But that will probably be to the detriment of his GC chances, so no bet on him, even at 250/1.

Carlos Betancur - AG2R, 150/1

You can forget about Betancur, he is un-motivated as he is leaving AG2R at the end of the season and dreadfully out of shape.. Dupont and Bouet are their GC men but I can't see them breaking the top 15, let alone the top 5.

Others of note to watch? 

Adam Yates could have a big race for OGE. Luis Leon Sanchez will be Caja Rural's main man but is more suited to stage hunting than GCs these days. Luis Meintjes is a very promising South African climber riding for MTN Qhubeka in their first Grand Tour so I'm sure he will be fired up to do something. One to watch for hilly breakaway stages. Winner Anacona is a talented climber who could fill Horner's shoes if the old man isn't at the races. As could Mikel Nieve fill Froome's shoes should he falter. 

Overall though, I think Nairo is going to take all the beating. He will attack frequently I think, particularly in the second week and if there are any weaknesses among Froome, Contador, Rodriguez and Horner Movistar will smash it up for Quintana in the lead in to the final climbs so he can skip away. He may have a lot of time to make up on Froome after the first ITT but with time bonuses for stage wins he could claw it back slowly but surely. And if Froome cracks completely, as is possible, and Contador is incapable of really mustering a challenge then he should have little opposition beyond maybe Purito Rodriguez and Horner and maybe Kelderman. 

Froome could be anything though - if he turns up race fit and strong of mind and body he could be untouchable. He could put big time in to all his rivals in the Time Trials and could hold on, or even accelerate away from the best of the rest on the climbs. If it went well for him he could win by 5 minutes plus. But the doubt is there, and even though he is being backed late on Thursday like the word is good, I'm prepared to wait and see.

Lots of others are in with a shout as you can see above then - Kelderman, Evans, Horner, Sanchez, Martin, Aru, Uran.. Whatever happens, it's going to be a cracker so check back here for updates as the race goes on.  

My Ante-Post bets and recommendations:

Nairo Quintana is now approaching a backable price at 6/4 on Betfair - 2pts bet recommended to start with 

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 66/1, 0.5pts win at 96 on Betfair for a trading bet

0.1pt each-way on Maxime Monfort at 1000/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Wilko Kelderman at 80/1 with various.