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- Published on Friday, 22 August 2014 12:13
Vuelta a España Jerseys betting
Who'll take home the Points, KOM and Young Riders jerseys?
I'll start this off by saying that there is actually a strong possibility that Nairo Quintana could walk away from this race with all the jerseys - the winners Red Jersey, the green Jersey of the Points leader, the blue jersey of the mountains leader and the white jersey of the young riders Jersey! And if he manages that, he'll have the Combined Jersey as well of course!
The reason being is that there are so many stages where he could score a lot of points on for both the KOM and the points, and if he justifies favouritism and wins the race overall, he will win the young riders jersey also.
King of the Mountains
King of the Mountains Jersey Competition
With eight summit finishes there are lots of points to be picked up by stage winners, and if Nairo Quintana is to win this race he will need to put time in to Froome on the climbs ahead of the TTs. To do so will probably require him winning several stages by a bit of a margin, where he can hoover up bonus time seconds along with the time he wins the stage by. In doing so he could well take enough points to land the mountains jersey.
It can sometimes take him a while to really get going though in Tours and in the first week there are a few stages where a breakaway rider could rack up some points if he decides to go for the jersey, and depending on how good that rider is, he could put up a fight to Quintana.
That's the problem with betting on the KOM jersey, it's very hard to know who is targeting it before the race starts. You could have someone who is feeling ok but knows they have no chance in the GC, like Rodriguez at the Tour this year, who just goes for the KOM instead.He knew he was riding himself in to form and would not be able to contest GC, despite people thinking he had a shot at it and were backing him at prices around 20/1 or so to win the GC.
And then you have the other situation like with Nibali, when by virtue of his stage wins he almost won it, the sort of situation we could see here again with Quintana. The reason why Quintana has such a good chance of winning it is down to the hard second and third week, the time when he tends to be at his best. With lots of points on offer and he possibly looking to kick on for the overall win, he could well take a few stage wins.
Who could challenge him for the KOM? Well Chris Froome is in a similar boat to Quintana - if he is 100% and crushing the opposition on the climbs then he will put himself to the forefront of KOM candidates. He often starts faster than Quintana in races, for example his stage win on the Planche des Belles Filles in the Tour 2012 on Stage 8 and the Stage 7 to Ax 3 Domaines in 2013. If so, then stage 6 to La Zubia could be one that we see him try to turn the screw and go for a stage win and possibly an early lead in the race, and possibly as a result, the KOM competition also. I don't think it will be a target for him at all though, I can't see him just falling back and trying to win it just because the GC might be out of his reach for whatever reason. So like with the GC, I am just a bit worried about his form to make a call on it just now, might wait until after stage 6 and review the situation.
I don't think Alberto Contador will be good enough to win this, I think he might have a stage win in him but I don't know if he'll have the consistency on the number of tough climbs they face to be able to compete for the jersey.
Joaquim Rodriguez will be an interesting one though - he tried, valiantly to win it at the Tour, but just came up short against the stronger men of Nibali and Majka who won too many points as a result of stage wins. Will he be going for the KOM or overall GC here? I think he is coming here to try for a high GC placing and the KOM competition might have to play second fiddle until that plan falls apart, if it does.
He has the punchy finish to steal stage victories and KOM points on some of the uphill finishes, but that requires him to be still at the front of affairs as they come to the finish, something he really struggled with at the Tour. But then again, that was all about building form, and that started to show signs of working in his blistering attack at the end of the Clasica San Sebastian. If GC slips away, he is a real danger for this as he can go on attacks like he did in the Tour to take intermediated KOM points and he should have better condition to maybe take the breaks to the finish this time around. 8/1 might be an each-way bet as he is sure to be top 5 at worst in the competition I think.
Thibaut Pinot was supposed to be coming here to target stages and to race without restraints or GC targets, and that could have freed him up to have a pop at the KOM title. I was considering his chances but then on Thursday he revealed he had spent the day in bed with a fever and that has put me right off him.
Julian Arredondo was a perpetual attacker in the Giro and it paid off with a stage win and the KOM jersey. Is he coming here to try again? It's entirely possible. A very strong climber who isn't afraid to go long with his attacks, he is a good outside bet to maybe get involved in this scrap. He may find himself a bit more of a marked man now though and will find it harder to win stages with this higher quality lineup than was at the Giro. 16/1 with Boylesports who are paying out on the top 4 interests me a little.
Johan Esteban Chaves comes here as a bit of an unknown package for Orica Green-Edge, a team not normally focused on things like GC or KOM competitions! The 24 year old Colombian could be one of those revelations of this race, like Aru in the Giro - he has already won two fantastic stages this year to showcase his climbing talents. The first, at the aptly named Mountain High in the Tour of California and the second at Verbier in the Tour de Suisse. It's hard to know though whether he will come here with the intention of sniping mountain points for the jersey or concentrating on riding a good GC race for experience, and possibly save his energy for one of the big mountain stages when he might just get up the road a little un-noticed. I think it might be the latter.
Others to consider - Valverde is close to the top of the betting but I can't see him going for this; Warren Barguil won two superb stages last year, but again I don't think this will be a target for him. Same goes for Aru, I think he might ride with ambitions of trying to finish in the top 10 again in a Grand Tour and that would mean he conserves his energy rather than go on tiring attacks for KOM points.
Dan Martin could be an interesting one though at 50/1 with Ladbrokes, he may be flying at the moment but the first ITT could possibly spoil his chances of a top 3 GC placing. If so, he could focus his sights on the KOM jersey, as he is well capable of infiltrating breaks and attacking to win stages. He has of course worn the KOM leaders jersey in the past in 2011 after he won Stage 8, beating Mollema, Cobo, Wiggins, Froome and Nibali!
There are a number of stages that suit his finishing kick and he isn't bad either for the mountain stages that come down to sprint finishes amongst the GC leaders. He can maybe give us a run at a big price over the next three weeks.
Recommendations:
Nairo Quintana - 2pts at 13/4 (4.25) with 888Sport
0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 50/1 with Ladbrokes
Julian Arredondo - 0.25pts each-way at 16/1 with Boylesports
Points Jersey
Green Points Jersey Competition
Again as above, there is a strong possibility that Nairo Quintana could win this jerey too. Lots of points will be out of the reach of the sprinter types as there are so many summit finishes/hilly stages. I've already given the reasons above for why Quintana could be winning this, but who could also get involved?
Looking at the betting though, it seems there are very few can win this unless they are good, GC climbing types - the odds are 11/4 Quintana and 6/1 for Froome, Rodriguez and Valverde more or less. It really is a coin toss between the three of these, and Quintana is an obvious favourite because of the likelihood he will place high up on so many stages.
Peter Sagan is also pretty short at 7/1 best though, but he is the kind of rider that could get involved in some of the hillier type stages as well as the sprints on the flat. In all there are just 5 stages really that the sprinters can really score points on, so it's impossible to see the likes of Bouhanni or Cavendish winning the Points. Sagan on the other hand though is well capable of mixing it with the sprinters and nicking a stage or two on the hillier type finishes, stages 3, 13 and possibly 18 look like stages that are tailor made for him. He scored points at will during the TDF and there are few riders who are complete all-rounders like him. He's the kind of guy who is even capable of a top ten finish in the shorter TT, not that they award points for a TT!
It's the last week though that could cause him problems as he is unlikely to be there at the end of the majority of the tougher climbs. He is capable though of getting in breaks that hoover up points along the way, so if he is in the running for the jersey, expect him to fight for every point. It would be interesting to see if it came down to the last stage and Sagan needed a good result to nab the jersey..
John Degenkolb is another who can mix it up in the sprints and on the hillier type stages, and in my opinion has a better sprint than Sagan in an out-and-out sprint, but also on the slightly hillier stages. He has had a good year and has chalked down a number of wins this year with the help of the formidable Giant-Shimano squad. After Kittel proved he was the best sprinter at the TDF, it's Degenkolb's turn to show what he can do. Stages 2,3 and 4 should be on his hit-list you'd think and he could get off to a flyer in the first week with a number of stages that suit. He looks a little interesting at 25/1, especially considering he could score well in the opening week.
Moving down the scale in terms of top sprinting ability but up the scale in terms of ability to score points on the hillier days we have Michael Matthews. After winning a stage in the Giro earlier this year he was gearing up for a run at the Tour where he was hoping to put on a big show.. That was denied by the unfortunate accident he had just days before the start when he came down on some gravel and was ruled out of the race. He endured a frustrating recovery on his turbo for a while, watching the Tour of TV, but he came back in the Tour of Poland with some good showings, taking a 2nd and a 3rd to finish 2nd overall in the point jersey. He looked pretty race fit and is sure to be chomping at the bit with some of those finishes on the opening week..
Now that he should be 100% again and he hasn't had a TDF in his legs, he should come here fresh, looking to make up for missing out on the big one. He has a good team with him here who most times (but not always!) seem to produce the goods to get him in the right place at the right time. He is 28/1 with Betfair Sportsbook while only 16/1 with most other books and that might be worth a small bet each-way. BetVictor went 50/1 though and I managed to get 0.5pts each-way on him at that stand out price.
I think if you think Nairo is going to win, or come very close to winning this Vuelta, then maybe this might offer a little bit more value than the 6/5 on him winning it outright. Rodriguez could challenge him for this jersey too but I don't think Froome or Valverde will. The challenges might come from the strongmen sprinters though, with Sagan and Degenkolb two in particular who could score well enough to put themselves in the frame. I don't want to back Nairo for everything though in case he comes down in the first week so I'll have a go at Degenkolb at a reasonable price.
Recommendations:
John Degenkolb - 0.3pts each-way at 25/1 with Ladbrokes.
Michael Matthews - 0.5pts each-way at 50/1 with BetVictor
Young Riders
Young Riders Competition
I have to start this by saying that our betting opportunities on this are severely restricted by a crap showing by the bookies on this market. Bet365, as of Friday lunchtime, are the only bookie offering odds on the competition, and the are WIN ONLY!
Quintana is 2/7 favourite to win this and I think that as long as he stays safe and upright there can only be one winner.. He probably will win the race, and if he does, he wins white also, but he is no bet at 2/7. If he doesn't win the race, who is it that could finish above him in the top 10 as I can't see him finishing lower than that, accidents and incidents aside?
There are a few talented youngsters in the race, with the Giro sensation Fabio Aru being one of them. But can Aru beat Quintana? It's highly unlikey. And is he any value at 7/1? I don't think so. There is a danger that two Grand Tours could catch up with him and he could slide down the GC if so..
Adam Yates has had a magnificent first year with Orica-Green Edge, winning the Tour of Turkey and the GP Industria and Artigianato, while also finishing 5th in the GC in the Tour of California and 6th in the Dauphiné. In each of those stage races he also finished top 3 in the young riders classification. The young man from Bury is in fantastic shape and is a real battler so could well come close to the top 5 of the young riders competition and possibly a top 20 finish to boot. But I can't see him beating the likes of Quintana - but 40/1, if we could get on each-way looks like a little bit of value.
There will be stern competition for the remaining two podium places behind Quintana though as you have the likes of Pinot, Barguil, Betancur, Landa and one that I have highlighted as having a GC chance at a big price, Wilko Kelderman. But again, until a bookie prices up the competition with some each-way betting there's no real bets to be had. You would effectively be betting that some misfortune befalls Quintana I think.
Recommendations:
No Bet until a bookie prices this up each way, but if you think Quintana will have a problem along the way, Kelderman and Yates are my two selections.
