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Published on Wednesday, 17 September 2014 00:26

Grand Prix de Wallonie 2014

Wallonie, Belgium

Wednesday September 17th, 198.2kms 

A short preview for the Tour de Wallonie as I am half taking a week off after a hectic week last week with the Vuelta and the Tour of Britain going on! It was a nice way to end the week though with a 14.7pt profit on Sunday to make up for a poor Saturday with the break in the TOB and Froome losing to Contador on the Ancares.. 

The race has been going since 1935, so has a long history and tradition. The TRW organisation took over running this in 2003 and since then there have been some epic battles over the hills of Wallonie, with Nick Nuyens winning this race 3 times in 6 years, Philippe Gilbert winning in 2011, Julien Simon in 2012 and Jan Bakelants in 2013. Simon and Bakelants are back to do battle again this year but Gilbert is not partaking. 

The Route

The route is the same every year more or less, an amble across the hills of Wallonie from Chaudfontaine to Namur. There are three tough climbs in the last 20kms or so, culminating in the final run to the line up the climb to the Citadelle of Namur. In a very twisty finishing 3kms they first hit a very steep 2kms which averages 10% with some parts 12-14%. From the 1km to go point it still rises but only at an average of 2%. It requires a strong finishing kick to get over the climb and a powerful finish to sprint away from whatever is left of the peloton, the race is usually in bits at this point.    

Contenders and Favourites

Very short preview, I like Bjorn Leukemans at 22/1 with Paddy Power. He has finished 2nd, 3rd twice, 6th, 10th and 11th in the six runnings of this race he has entered, a pretty impressive run of results. He has been riding very well this year with some big rides in the Flanders classics and recently he won a stage and finished 2nd overall in the Tour de Limousin. And just two weeks ago he finished 3rd in a Pro Kermesse in Geraardsbergen which took them half way up the Mur on each of the laps, so the legs are clearly in good shape. At 22/1 he is my only bet for tomorrow.

I think GVA will be a marked man and may be tired after coming back from Canada, he had a few tough races over there and doesn't want to burn himself out a week befor the World's. He is too short at 7/2 to me. Bakelants is a big danger as defending champion (and 5th in 2012) but he hasn't done much to impress me lately to suggest he is a good bet at 6/1. Julien Simon won it in 2012 beating GVA and Leukemans and is 8/1 to repeat that feat this year. He was also 9th last year, 2nd in 2011 and 4th in 2010. He is bound to be close again as it clearly is a finish he relishes and he might be worth an e/w bet. 

Tony Gallopin is taking part in it for the first time and could go well, but 5/1 doesn't interest me. Jelle Vanendert seems to be in reasonably good form, was prominent in Canada but I don't think he'll be top 3 here. Romain Bardet will be interesting to watch too but I'm holding off on backing him at 14/1, the sprint at the end might be too much for him. 

Recommendations:

0.75pts each-way on Bjorn Leukemans at 22/1 with Paddy Power

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