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Published on Saturday, 08 October 2016 21:36

2016 World TTT Championship

Sunday 9th October, 40kms

The Doha World Championships are finally here! Much has been made of the motives and madness of hosting a World Championships in one of the hottest and flattest countries in the world, and already this week rumours are swirling that the road races are going to be shortened because of the extreme heat. 

But what did they expect? Money clearly was the reason they have taken the race to a dusty oven where maybe 2% of the population give a damn, and where if you try riding a bike around Doha you take your life in to your own hands amongst the swarms of Toyota landcruisers and Range Rovers. I have a good friend who lives on the Pearl where the World Champs are being held and he has been keeping me filled in with exactly how crazy it is that they are hosting the World Championships there. 

This is the country where it regularly hits the high 40s and once caused a can of coke to explode in his car, the temperature got so high. A country where a sand storm can blow in in minutes and completely obscure visibility, so badly that workers have to leave early for fear of not getting home safely. A country where 15,000 residents of the Pearl are furious about the fact they have been informed that they will be effectively trapped on the island for nine days and will be shipped to their parked cars outside the island on golf buggies! And as my friend put it, he wouldn't even dream about trying to cycle to work in 35 degree heat, he probably wouldn't come off best with a run in with a local Land Cruiser. 

But the proceedings kick off with the Team Time Trial on Sunday the 9th, followed by the Elite Men’s and Women’s Individual Time Trials on Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th. The Elite men race over the same course and distance of 40kms, whereas the Elite Women race over a shorter course and distance of 28.9kms. The team time trial only returned to the World Championships in 2012 after a break since 1994 and it's unique in the World Championships in that riders don't compete for a country as they do in all the other disciplines, but ride for their trade teams instead.

BMC are going for a hat-trick of wins, and are looking in ominous form to do so after their strong displays in the recent Eneco Tour and Tirreno Adriatico earlier in the season. They scorched around the 38.8km course in Richmond last year at an average speed of 55.275kmph, beating Etixx-QuickStep by 12" and Movistar by 43". That followed an equally impressive victory in 2014, winning the gold medal by a considerable margin of 32 seconds from Orica GreenEdge and Omega Pharma Quick Step 4" further back in 3rd.

BMC and Etixx are no strangers to a bit of rivalry at team time trial, and it has been BMC who have been on top for quite a while now, beating them again in the Eneco just a few weeks back.  Last year Paddy Power had made EQS their marginal favourite at 7/4 to BMCs 2/1, and I was happy to take the bigger price on the men in red and black. Etixx-QS, or rather Omega Pharma Quick Step as they were at the time, won the title in 2013 and 2012 and are sure to be going all out to try to take their title back from BMC.

As I mentioned earlier, it is the trade teams that take part in this race, for the honour of putting a sticker on their team bus for the next year, but not everyone is as enamoured with the event - the cost of taking a team there, reported to be around €30-40,000 has seen some teams decide against going to Doha, most notably Tinkoff-Saxo. And there was almost a boycott of the event by all 18 World Tour teams until the UCI backed down from making it compulsory to take part. 

The Route

The course starts up at the Lusail Sports Complex to the north-west of the Pearl, with a whole series of tight bends inside the first 7kms. The teams can barely ride 400m without a sharp 90 degree turn left or right, or even a complete 180 turn. It could be the making or breaking of some teams, as those that can corner well as a group and accelerate out of the bends quickly will have a distinct advantage over those that can't. 

After that the road straightens out for a while to allow the powerful teams to put the hammer down between the 1st and 2nd time check. with long stretches of dead flat and straight roads. After they pass the Doha Golf Club and the university they enter the Lagoon and Pearl areas of Qatar where they should be quite protected from any winds due to all the high-rise buildings that dominate the area. They sweep down on to Porta Arabia, arcing around it on Porto Arabia Drive before almost looping back on themselves on Pearl Boulevard and up to the finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

BMC are aiming for a hat-trick, can anyone stop them? No matter what team they picked out of their whole squad, they would have had a chance here of a top result. As it is, the squad they have picked of Rohan Dennis, Taylor Phinney,  Daniel Oss, Manuel Quinziato, Stefan Kung and Joey Rosskopf is a seriously powerful squad and the bookies aren't taking any chances with 4/7 the best price out there. 

This is almost the exact same team as last year that won, with Silvan Dillier replaced by Joey Rosskopf. These six riders were all in the team that won the TT in the Eneco a few weeks back (along with Van Avermaet and Tom Bohli) so they got some good practice in. This is a very powerful team who all know each other really well. They are powerful on the straights and well organised and fast around the tight bends. They have all the qualities to take the win here again and will take some stopping. But 4/7 is not a great price now is it. 

Etixx-QuickStep are probably their biggest rivals with the power they have - Tony Martin, Bob Jungels, Niki Terpstra, Julien Vermote, Yves Lampaert and Marcel Kittel make up this very strong squad. Martin, Terpstra and Lampaert are the only three from the team last year, with Vermote, Jungels and Kittel coming in for Kwiatkowski, Boonen and Uran. Jungels is a very strong addition to the team, and Vermote is more than capable of holding his own in a TTT like this, he's a very strong rider. Marcel Kittel might be a surprise for some, but he's a pretty decent time triallist and a very strong rider who may well give his all over the first 20kms or so and pull away then. 

Jungels, Kittel, Martin and Terpstra were all in the Eneco team that finished 6" behind BMC in the Eneco, and Lampaert and Vermote will add power and experience to that team and they could be best of the rest. Can they beat BMC?? It's possible - but I think it will take a mistake from BMC or an extremely good day from Etixx to do so. But are they worth backing at just 11/4? I don't know about that.. 

Third favourites are Movistar, and they have a really strong looking team here with Amador, Castroviejo, Dowsett, Sutherlin, Erviti and Oliviera are all very capable time triallists and they are a team that ride really well together in TTs like this. Sutherlin, Erviti, Dowsett and Oliveira were in the team that only finished 4th in the team time trial, they will have to raise their game quite a lot to pull back the 25" they lost by that day to BMC.  

Team Sky pulled off a nice win for us in the Vuelta TTT at very tasty odds of 5/1, albeit that they won by so tight a margin, that Movistar momentarily were shown as having beaten them. Eventually it was given to the Sky boys, it was a great ride by them, but an equally impressive ride by Movistar to almost beat them. Of course there is no Chris Froome here, but they still have a pretty strong squad, although not as strong as it could be with the likes of Vasil Kiryienka and Michal Kwiatkowski not having the best of seasons

I actually think this is a pretty weak team with Roche, Van Poppel, Thomas and Ben Swift completing the lineup. And with the cloud hanging over the team at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised if they had a poor day at the office. I was going to suggest taking them on in matchbets, but the only matchbet on offer with them was at Bet365 versus LottoNL and that was 1/2 for Lotto, which is a bit short. 

Orica Bike Exchange are very confident of a big ride in this race and have a very strong team here too with Durbridge and Tuft, who recently won the Duo Normand for the third time joined by Edmonson, Impey, Matthews and Hepburn. This is a team that has finished 2nd twice, 3rd and 4th in this TTT over the last four years, and have the power to come close to a podium spot again. I don't think they have the power to beat BMC, but they could give Movistar a run for their money for the third spot. 

LottoNL Jumbo went really well in the TT in the Eneco Tour, finishing 3rd, 2" ahead of Movistar. It was a strong team in the Eneco and they were highly motivated, can they repeat that sort of performance here? Roosen, Van Emden, Roglic, Kelderman and Leezer were all in the Eneco team and are joined by Campanaerts, so they are very familiar with each other and have been training together for several weeks now. Can they sneak on to the podium at a big looking 11/4 for the top 3? I'm not sure, the competition is going to be strong and I'm not sure the collective effort will be as good as that from Etixx, Movistar or even Orica. 

And the rest? Astana, Katusha, AG2R and all the others, well I think they will be lucky to come within a minute of BMC here and have no chance of  a podium spot either I think. Giant-Alpecin can go well, but again will be for 4th to 8th I think, but they are good enough to win their H2H with Astana. And that's about the only thing that appeals to me for tomorrow is a matchbet accumulator, but none of the bookies are even offering that option.

So our options are pretty limited tomorrow, and I am actually really tempted to call it a 'no bet' day, which is annoying after all this effort..! BMC should win, I think Etixx will be 2nd and could be within 15-20" of BMC and the battle for 3rd is probably going to be the best contest out there tomorrow with Movistar, Orica and LottoNL all fighting it out. I'm leaning towards Movistar with that squad, but again there is no value in them at just 1/2 to finish in the top 3.

4pts win on BMC at 4/7 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

LottoNL to beat Team Sky - 4pts at 1/2 with Bet365