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Published on Saturday, 15 October 2016 00:36

2016 World's Road Race Championships

Sun 16th Oct, 257.5kms

The course couldn't be more boring, the weather couldn't be more oppressive, the interest from most cycling fans couldn't be lower - a depressing state of affairs ahead of the World's Road Race. But it is what it is, and the sprinters here will hopefully deliver us 15 minutes to remember on Sunday evening. 

Nothing will match the drama of the final lap last year though, when the incredible, incomparable, unstoppable Peter Sagan simply rode away from the best riders in the world and soloed to victory. Not only was the win impressive and hugely memorable, but the celebration after the victory was pretty special too and showed just how highly he is respected and regarded by his peers as they all seemed genuinely happy for him, high-fiving him like a team-mate.

So far we have seen plenty about the heat and the lack of fans for the events so far, it has been hot (but not as hot as it can get in Doha) and lots of riders have suffered, but as Gavin Mannion pointed out on Twitter, racing in Southern California is often hotter.. The crowds have been an embarassment though, with more security on the course than spectators. The Team Time Trial saw less than 100 spectators I'd guess in the last 200m, the only visible clue that there was anyone there who actually cared was the colourful Dutch LottoNL fan with his big flags about 50m from the line.

But as my friend in Doha pointed out to me, it was a Sunday, and people work on a Sunday in Qatar, so the number of 'locals' who could pop out to watch were limited already. And as it was close to 40 degrees, then even popping out for a while was something many of them weren't really up for, there simply isn't the interest amongst the locals. Seeing as the road race is on a Sunday again though, will it be more of the same? It's possible - but hey, they don't need to sit in the sun for 6 hours any more than we need to watch it for 6 hours, they can pop out after work and catch the last half hour and that should be all they need to see. 

Can what we have seen so far in the TTs and the other road races tell us anything about what to expect for Sunday? Well yes - it's going to be hot, and riders will be exhausted and maybe even get sick. I wouldn't be surprised if there are lots of abandonments in the last 50kms (if they keep it to the full planned distance) and possibly lots of crashes, like we've seen in other races as riders become weak and disorientated with heatstroke and exhaustion. Just look at  Callum Scotson of Australia in the U23 TT on Monday, he got sick down his left sleeve in the closing kilometres and for a while looked like he was drunk on the bike, weaving and wobbling along. It took him from a medal-winning position to an eventual 10th place, leaving his brother Miles to take bronze.

Also, that closing circuit is going to be tricky for a large peloton to be coming through at speed near the end of the race, that is, if there is still a large peloton together as they come to the closing laps.. we could have had a lot of abandonments by the time we get to the crunch. And that is something else to think about - how many team-mates will the sprinters have left by the time it comes to the last lap and the leadout? 

The Elite men's time trial went pretty well for us, with almost a clean-sweep of bets that landed nearly 16pts profit.. Tony Martin was simply untouchable and back to his brilliant best to make it four gold medals. Vasil Kiryienka did a far better ride than I expected, but stand by my claim that 5/1 was a ridiculous price for him! Jonathan Castroviejo landed the each-way money for us at 20/1, once again finishing in the top five of a TT this year, he really has been the most impressively consistent of all this year. 

And what about Ryan Mullen? An incredible ride from the 22-year old saw him sitting in the hot seat for over an hour as rider after rider came and went and were unable to shift him off of the hot seat. He was eventually to finish 5th, but that was a sensational result and bodes well for the future. And he cosily landed the match-bet with Smukulis, as did all the other match bets, it was a very good day indeed. Poor rides from Dennis (6th) and Dumoulin (11th), justified my decision not to touch them, Van Emden did ok, but the writing was on the wall when he couldn't beat Mullen. There were also good rides from Lampaert, Hollenstein and Jungels to fill out the top ten. 

The Route

As per the TT courses, not a lot to say about this boring circuit. They do go out in to the desert though, where the wind can really pick up at times and sand can be a problem, but it shouldn't cause too many problems I think this week as the wind is forecast to be pretty low, around 5-8mph. The good news for the riders though is that the temperature is forecast to be lower on Sunday, dropping to around 33-34 degrees, a pretty typical day for the Tour de France or the Vuelta.. 

After starting in the Aspire Zone, just south-west of the Pearl, they head north out of the city, past the Lusail Sports Complex and out in to the desert. They keep on heading north until they reach Abu Yazoul and turn around and head south again, past Al Khor, skirting along close to the coast. They carry on past the Lusail Sports Complex, passing it on the other side this time, and on to the pearl. By the time they cross the finish line on the Pearl for the first time they will have covered 151kms, and then enter a 15.2km circuit of the pearl, which they race seven times. 

There are nine sharp bends on the course, with lots of roundabouts too, but a lot of good straights too which will work against any breakaway, as they enter the last 3kms there are a series of tight bends - culminating in a sharp right-hander that is almost a hair-pin bend, then on to the finishing straight which arcs to the right along Pearl Boulevard. 

Contenders and Favourites

We'll get a break of course, but it will take either an enormous fuck up by the peloton, or the strongest break of guys possible , e.g. the top ten in the time trial on Wednesday! So that's probably not going to happen, and it's likely that as we hit the last 5 laps or so the break will be reeled in. This will then mean we will see the stronger nations like Germany, France and Australia come to the front in team formation and ensure no further attacks get away in order to set up the inevitable sprint.

Let's face it, unless there is a hurricane blowing out in the desert, it's going to be a terrible bore for about five hours, maybe the last hour at most will be worth watching, possibly only the last 15 or 20 minutes.. But hey, it's the Word Championships, with the best sprinters in the world, so the finish should be good right?? 

Let's start in betting order, but covering the other options within the country teams, as some countries have more than one option. 

Peter Sagan (Slovakia) - 5/1 favourite. I want to start by saying that this is a silly price for Sagan.. A three-man-team, or more like, a one-man-team, he will not be getting a leadout on Sunday. His brother Juraj and Michael Kolar are probably not even going to finish, let alone be leading a charge up the middle of the road on Sunday afternoon. And even if Sagan does surf wheels of other trains and comes to the last 200m in with a shot, is he really capable of outsprinting some of the best sprinters in the world, with their strong leadout trains?

Well, the simple answer is yes - yes he is capable of still winning a race like this, regardless of team support or whether he's up against the best sprinters in the world. Because, he IS one of the best sprinters in the world on his day. He has finished in the top 3 on 6 of his last 8 road starts, winning 4 of the races, including the European Road Race Championships and the GP in Quebec. He has 13 wins already this season, well and truly smashing the 'curse of the rainbow jersey' myth. He has also finished an astonishing 39 times in the top 10 this season (not counting TTs).

He can do almost anything on a bike, but for sure he'd have liked a few hills or a bit of rain and mud like in Richmond last year. He has won 4 stages of the Tour of Oman though in the past, and has finished in the top 4 seven times in the past in stages of the Tour of Qatar, but has never won a stage (two 2nds, two 3rds). Some of his wins this year have been breath-taking, possibly none more so than his sprint in stage 3 of the Eneco Tour when he weaved his way through a wall of riders and nicked it on the line. it was an incredible display of strength, speed and bike handling, and if it's a messy sprint like this on Sunday, there's no better man to navigate through. (see video below from about 5 mins onwards).

Mark Cavendish - Great Britain - 6/1 (as low as 4/1). I honestly don't know why he is this price.. I think he should be 10/1 or bigger and even then I don't think I'd back him. I had one of my biggest World's bets on him in Copenhagen in 2011, but I really fancied him that day, I don't fancy him for Sunday. 

Firstly, there is the whole bronchitis thing and him being sick in the past few weeks.. if that is true and he was ill, it will mean he will probably not be at 100% for this. Secondly, I don't think he has been sprinting all that great recently. He was only 6th in Paris-Tours on Sunday and was beaten by Bennett in the Giro del Toscana, in fact he hasn't won a race since mid July in the Tour. But then again, what a Tour he had, confounding his critics (me included) when he landed four stage wins. 

It's a strong team that GB have here though, with Blythe, Stannard, Rowe, Cummings, Dowsett and McLay, but I'm not sure they are the best leadout train. They will be strong in the last 30kms, helping to pull in the breakaway and keeping the pace high, but I've a niggling suspicion that it might all fall apart for them and Cavendish in the last kilometre. He may well prove me wrong and win it, but I'm not going to be backing him at 6/1.

As for their other chances, Cummings could try his trademark late attack and try soloing to victory, and Swift, McLay and Blythe could have chances if it is a really messy sprint or there has been a split for some reason and they are on the right side of it. 

André Greipel - Germany - 13/2 (as low as 9/2) - the lead man of a very strong looking German team, Greipel is a serious contender for victory here on Sunday. Nils Politt, Tony Martin and Jasha Sutterlin are three massively powerful engines that will drag him in to position in the last kilometre, and Degenkolb and Kittel will be powerful allies in the battle for position. 

Ten stage wins this season, including 3 in 12 stages in the Giro and the final stage of the Tour on the Champs Élysées, he also took the first stage in the Tour of Britain a few weeks ago and came very close to a stage win in the Eneco, pipped by Sagan. He has won a stage in the Tour of Oman in the past (left) and five stages in the Tour of Oman, and I think with that German team, he will get a great leadout, and has a very strong chance of victory on Sunday. 

The backup options for the Germans are the envy of most other nations, with Marcel Kittel and John Degenkolb offering seriously strong alternatives. Marcel Kittel has had more wins this season than Greipel, with 11 wins and has already claimed a World Champion title this week with Etixx's win in the TTT. He is looking close to back to his best again, and only for Greipel being who he is, Kittel would be leader on this team as he is one of the top sprinters in the world, without question. Kittel rode the Tour of Qatar in 2015, but had a disaster, as he was way off form, but has won three stages in the Tour of Oman in the past.

John Degenkolb is still continuing his recovery from the horrible injuries he suffered at the start of the season, but he is almost back to his best. He was getting closer and closer as the Tour de France wore on, then took his first win of the season in the Arctic race of Norway, beating Kristoff, Démare, Hofland and Van Poppel. He followed that up with a win in the Munsterland Giro just over a week ago, so he comes here in good form too.

Should anything happen to Greipel in the closing kilometres, Kittel and Degenkolb can get involved, and indeed would have good chances of taking victory themselves, Kittel in particular, and this is reflected in the fact that his price is more or less the same as Greipel's at 6/1, although William Hill are a stand-out 15/2 on him. 

Fernando Gaviria - Colombia - 8/1- The way in which Gaviria won the sprint in Paris Tours on Sunday was simply sensational. I can't recall too many other sprinters pulling a stunt like that in all my years of watching cycling. One I can remember fondly, although he wasn't a sprinter, was when Bauke Mollema jumped in a stage of the Vuelta in 2013 with about 700m to go too as the sprinters briefly paused.. He held on my a similar margin.. I remember it fondly as I had picked him at 130/1! 

Anyway, it was amazing, if very frustrating to watch.. Amazing in its audacity and speed, seizing a moment using all his track-racing skills to accelerate on the right and quickly get a gap.. The others looked at him, and decided he was mad to go so soon.. Démare in particular, as he was on his wheel, something he regretted after. Amazing in that he landed the win bet for us, but frustrating in that we didn't know it was him until he had crossed the line, after enduring 600m of cursing the fact that Richeze had decided to attack instead of leading out Gaviria!

It showed a few things though - 1. he doesn't need a leadout, as Etixx were a bit of a shambles that day, something I didn't expect. He worked his way to the right position by himself more or less and then took it upon himself to jump, as he had no leadout. 2. He is clearly in superb shape and full of confidence and will be a real danger in this sprint.

In his last six starts he has finished 1st twice and 2nd twice, Seven wins this season is a pretty good return for a 22 year old, especially considering the team he is in.. He has to play second fiddle to the likes of Kittel and Boonen. But when he gets his chances and the team gets behind him, he is lethal.

But he doesn't have the power of Etixx behind him on Sunday, instead it's the rather weaker Colombian national squad. He has the experience of Rigo Uran to look after him, and the power of Avila and Vargas, but they are not exactly a team that will strike fear in to the hearts of France, Germany or GB. But as I said, it may not matter - he is a track sprinter who is excellent at positioning himself and can fight his own corner. Remember also that he possibly would have won Milan San Remo this year had he not crashed on the final bend, he's a class act.

I was so impressed by him in Paris Tours that I immediately took the 16/1 that he was available at with Skybet, it looked a great each-way bet to me. He is now half that price as the bookies woke up a little later on, but at 8/1 I think he's still worth a small bet, he has the skills and the speed to be right up at the front.

Alexander Kristoff leads the Norwegian team, and the Norwegians have had a good week with the victory for Kristoffer Halvorsen in the U23 race on Thursday. Halvorsen won it in the style of Kristoff at his very best, a superbly powerful sprint, getting up to pip the German rider Pascal Ackerman on the line. But Kristoff has been far from his best this year, he has had a disappointing year by his lofty standards. Well I say disappointing, but he has actually won 12 races this year.. but it's the quality of the races - if you take away the 4 stages he won in his races in Norway, his other results were in places like the Tour of California, the 3 days of de Panne, and 3 stages in the Tour of Qatar at the start of the season.

But that last stat is important - 3 stages in Qatar this year, 5 stages in total in his career, including a stage this year which took in a lot of this World's circuit. He beat Mark Cavendish that day, but really that was all he had to beat, the rest behind him couldn't be classed as world-class sprinters. But it shows that he can handle the heat and handle the circuit.

He has a strong team with him too, with Eddie Boasson Hagen, Vegard Stake Laengen, Vegard Breen, Sonder Holst Enger and Sven Erik Bystrom all are pretty strong engines, but I think only EBH could be relied upon to be still there to guide him to the last 500m, maybe Enger too. Can he podium or even win it? I think he'll find it hard given the form he has been in this year when up against the big boys. He didn't win a classic this year and didn't win a stage in the TDF, he seemed to have lost some of his top-end speed - and in a flat out, 60kmph sprint like this one, I'm not sure he has enough raw speed to challenge the fastest guys.

Nacer Bouhanni and Arnaud Démare lead the line for France, but looking at the betting, Bouhanni is clear favourite of the two at around 14/1, with Démare as big as 40/1. I'm not sure why there is such a discrepancy between the prices, I guess it all comes down to who the team will be riding for on Sunday, and that's clearly looks to be Bouhanni.. But looking at both of their chances, it's hard to split them and they would be serious rivals if this were a regular trade-team race.

Bouhanni has 10 wins this season, in races like Paris Nice, Andalucia and Catalunya, but missed out on the Tour de France after his altercation with a hotel guest prior to the start. Bouhanni can be one of the fastest guys in the world on his day, but he can also be an absolute disaster.. it wouldn't surprise me to see him cause a crash in the last kilometre when things get dicey. He won the Tour de Vendee two weeks ago, but was only 7th in Paris Tours, not a great result on a similar kind of finish. What he has going for him, which none of his rivals have really, is his trade-team lead-out train of Soupe, Petite and Laporte are here with him and could make a big difference in the last 2kms. His recent form just hasn't been good enough in my mind though and I'm not backing him.

Arnaud Démare on the other hand seems to be going really well, winning Binche-Chimay-Binche last week and then finishing 2nd in Paris Tours.. He might well have won it had Gaviria not escaped away, he finished very fast and was cursing his decision to let Gaviria go when on his wheel, as he was feeling really strong. He has only won five races this year, but one of those races was Milan-San-Remo, when he finished incredibly fast to take the win from Swift and Roelandts, with Bouhanni back in 4th.

To me Démare has a better temperament and better power for what will be a power-man's sprint I think, and I'd much rather back him at 40/1 than Bouhanni at 14/1. He is of course a former world champion, winning the U23 race in 2011 (right) so he is very capable on the big occassion like this. 

Tom Boonen is pretty short in the betting at just 16/1 or so, but that is because he is MR QATAR, with an astonishing 22 stage wins and four overall GC victories in the Tour of Qatar, although the last of his stage wins was back in 2014. Winner of the Brussels Cycleclassic just recently and the Ride London Surrey Classic just before that, he seemed to be in good shape at the end of the season. He didn't fare too great in Paris Tours though, finishing down in 21st place.

He leads a very powerful Belgian side, with Van Avermaet, Debusschere, Keisse, Keukeleire, Naesen, Maes, Stuyven and Roelandts all there to help him out. Keukeleire, Debus, Keisse and Stuyven will be a very strong leadout for him and Van Avermaet might be free to try attacking in the closing laps to make others take up the chase. He could well be put in the mix by that leadout, but I don't think he has the speed these days to beat these guys. If anything should happen to Boonen, Debusschere or Keukeleire could take up the sprinting duties. 

Dylan Groenewegen has had a really good season too, taking 11 wins, including the Tour de l'Eurometropole two weeks ago, beating Boonen in to 3rd. He has been winning races all season, from a stage in Valenciana in February, through to the Dutch Nationals and two wins, a 3rd, 4th and 5th in the last month. The best he was able to manage in the Tour de France though against these sorts of guys was a 4th place, but his LottoNL leadout was mainly responsible for that, they were pretty hopeless.

The Dutch team that is here with him looks a lot stronger on paper, with de Kort, Dumoulin, Van Emden, Terpstra, Van Poppel, Langeveld and Van Baarle offering up some serious power. Terpstra, de Kort, Van Emden and Dumoulin are massively powerful and experienced and I can see them powering to the front in the last 3kms with Groenewegen in tow. He is very fast, but a little inexperienced in big races like this, as we saw in the Tour de France, will he be able to cope with the pressure? He seems a very nice, relaxed guy though and if he gets a good run at it he may come close to a podium spot. 

Caleb Ewan we assumed would be leading the Australian team, but apparently they are all in for Matthews.. the betting suggests otherwise though.. As usual, it's a very strong team that the Aussies have here. Dempster, Docker, Durbridge, Hayman, Haussler, Matthews, Renshaw and Von Hoff are a vastly experienced bunch of guys, with Dempster, Docker, Durbridge three diesel engines for doing the heavy lifting out on the course, and Haussler, Matthews and Renshaw will take over in the last 5kms to get Ewan in the right position.  

Ewan has five wins to his name this season, he has done well in some races, but has been off the pace in too many races for my liking. He took his stage win well in the Tour of Britain final stage up the hill in London, but he has really been off the ball since then, not getting close at all in the Eneco Tour. I think he still lacks a bit of guile and experience, and in fact, if Matthews was a slightly faster sprinter in a flat sprint like this, he might be more reliable than Ewan. Ewan looks a big price at 33/1, but I don't think he'll make the frame, maybe 5th to 10th at best I think. 

Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani are the main men for the Italians here, but I'm not sure either of them are good enough to win this or even make the top three.. Nizzolo has had a good season, culminating in his win at the Italian Nationals, taking five wins along the way. He also won the Giro del Piemonte just two weeks ago too, showing he still has good form. Back at the start of the year, in the Dubai Tour, he finished 3rd, 3rd, 2nd and 6th in the four stages, so he is comfortable in the desert, although the Dubai Tour was much cooler than they'll face here. 

Elia Viviani has had a pretty mediocre season as far as I'm concerned, with only two wins all season, by far the worst return of all the sprinters named so far. One of those was way back in the Dubai Tour in February and the other was in the 3 days of de ..he's not going to be featuring Sunday, it wouldn't surprise me if he DNF'Ed. 

Sam Bennett flies the flag for Ireland and he is not without an outside hope here. He did after all take a great stage win in the Tour of Qatar in 2015, on a stage that incorporated some of the lap of the Pearl. He beat Guardini, Bouhanni and Peter Sagan that day with a brilliant sprint, surfing wheels and jumping clear with fantastic acceleration. After a disaster in the Tour de France and some illness more recently, he seems to be finishing the season in fine form, with two wins in the last 3 weeks, beating Cavendish in Toscana and also taking Paris-Bourges for the second year in a row.

He may not have a big team with him, but he has the power of Ryan Mullen, the 5th placer in the TT on Wednesday, and as he put it, he's going to be 'Sam Bennett's personal camel' on Sunday. Matt Brameier will probably be in the early break of the day as per usual, but he may be asked to stay and look after Bennett seeing as they have a sprint candidate this year. I backed him at 150/1 after his win in Paris Bourges, he's as low as 25/1 now with Paddy Power, but there is still 80/1 out there. 

Magnus Cort Nielsen is probably Denmark's best chance of a winner here, he packs quite a punch in a sprint. Supported by the powerhouses of Chris Juul Jensen, Michael Morkov, Lars Bak, Matti Breschel and Soren Kragh Anderson, he should be well looked after on the day, but I feel that he will struggle to break the top ten, let alone the podium. 

And that's about it really. There will be lots of attacks and looking at the junior road race today, there's also a possibility that there will be lots of crashes and maybe not a lot will finish in the first group. It's possible we get a similar scenario to today where a strong break will get enough of a gap to fight out the finish, but I think that is more unlikely with the pros and will be more like the U23 race.

André Greipel reckons the Belgians and the Dutch will try to split the race up out in the desert, but they reckon they will have the firepower to react. Other nations may not be so lucky, there will be lots of crashes in this race with the heat, fatigue, twists, turns, and the pinchpoints that are out on the course - this pinchpoint on the right caused crashes today as the barriers squeezed up on the left just before the bend and riders had nowhere to go. 

So it's likely we get a drastically reduced peloton as we come to the final laps of the race, 257kms in that heat will take a lot of guys out of it. It will take a strong team, and a strong guy who can sprint up the slight uphill finish to the line. I'm discounting Cavendish, Bouhanni, Boonen, Viviani and Ewan as I don't think they will be winning. I really like Germany's chances here - Greipel looks just the right kind of guy to me to charge up that finishing straight after a leadout by Degenkolb and Tony Martin. If things don't get too crazy out in the desert, Kittel could be there as well, but I'm worried that if there are splits and problems along the way, Kittel could get lost, as as is often the case with him. 

I also like the chances of Gaviria as he looks in such great form and will have the top end speed to accelerate away from many of his rivals. I also like Démare as he offers value at 40/1. It should be a boring afternoon, unless things kick off out in the desert, but the last lap should be interesting - if it is a seriously reduced peloton, then France, Germany, the Netherlands and Australia should be favourites to dominate the sprint. Kristoff could also be in the mix as he won't mind the distance and if it gets messy and there are splits he should be on the right side of it. Much has been made of the heat, but look at the u23 and Junior winners this week so far - they were from Norway and Denmark!

Of course, we could see it blow apart and the likes of Van Avermaet, Sagan, Terpstra and so on could be involved - but I'm backing a sprint finish, and Gold for André Greipel. But knowing Peter Sagan, he'll either ride away from them all, or beat them all in a sprint - it's just going to happen, we all know it.... resistance is futile...

Recommendations

2pts each-way on André Greipel at 13/2 with Boylesports

0.5pts each-way on Fernando Gaviria at 8/1 with Corals

0.5pts each-way on Arnaud Démare at 33/1 with Corals

0.25pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 80/1 with Corals