World Road Race Championships

Details: Published on Saturday, 26 September 2015 18:36

2015 World's Road Race

Sunday 27th September, 259.2kms

The climax of the 2015 World Championships is on Sunday afternoon, starting at 2pm UK time - I'm liking these World Championships from the States, as the times are perfect for evening viewing! The Men's Elite Road Race is always a fascinating affair with many riders in contention for the win, and this year is no exception. Strap yourself in, grab a cup pf tea, there's plenty to discuss..

Last year's winner, Michal Kwiatkowski, was a bit of a surprise but was still a fancied rider as he went off at only 20/1, which looked too short to me. As it was, he probably surprised his backers by attacking on the descent off the final climb rather than on the ascent, taking advantage of a bit of lull amongst the favourites as they regathered themselves ahead of the finish. In a few seconds he was gone, and the others looked at each other waiting for someone else to take up the chase. They came after him hard, but the chase was not really coordinated, as it was every man for himself at that point - there were 15 different nationalities in the next 18 chasers home,

Kwiatkowski wins worlds

Gerrans and Valverde were left disappointed as they let Gold and Silver turn in to Silver and Bronze, and as the saying goes, you're either first or nowhere, not many people will be able to tell you who finished 2nd and 3rd in last year's World Road Race. Matti Breschel was also left disappointed as he missed out on a podium spot after a superb ride again in the World's. Van Avermaet, Gallopin, Gilbert, Kristoff, Degenkolb and Bouhanni rounded out the top 10.

It had been an interesting ride by the Polish team, who were 9-strong last year, they worked hard all during the race to keep it under control, Kwiatkowski clearly felt he had good legs. Worked so hard in fact, that half of them were out of the race long before the finish. But those guys were never going to feature at the finish so the plan worked well to use them up early and look after Kwiatkowski.

This year's race is very different to last year's in Ponferrada though. Last year's course was less urban and more hilly, with a 5km climb followed by the punchy 1km climb of the Mirador that made the final selection. In total last year they had to climb a total of 4,284m, whereas this year it will be a total of 1.648m. This year, the course includes a lot of cobbles, not something that would immediately spring to mind when you think of the likely road surfaces in America, but they have cobbles on the climbs, and on the descents, which will make it very interesting if it rains.

The Individual Time Trial was fascinating and we almost saw a 750/1 man Jerome Coppel win the Gold medal, but was pipped in the end by our man Adriano Malori and the winner Vasil Kiryienka. An incredible podium with a 66/1 winner, 40/1 and 750/1 3rd (best prices) but it was a major disappointment for the favourite Tony Martin and our favourite Rohan Dennis, who punctured and had to change his bike. But it was a brilliant battle between Kiryienka and Malori and at one stage it looked like we were going to land a nice winner as Malori closed down a big gap to just a few seconds. We had to settle for the top 3 return though, but not a bad result considering.

The Route

This is a tight, technical, urban circuit that isn't overly difficult on the face of it - the cobbles aren't too rough and the hills aren't too long. But put them together and possibly add rain and stretch the course over 260kms and it becomes a real battle of attrition. At 259.2kms it's 5kms longer than the course in Ponferrada last year, and although it has the three hills on the course, the total elevation of the race only comes to 1,648m, compared to 4,284m last year. That's 103m of elevation per lap, 16 laps. The U23 race on Friday night showed us just how hard this course can be. The Belgian rider showed us just what can happen on slippy cobbles when he put the power down coming around the bend on Libby Hill and the back wheel skipped from under him. It also showed just how hard the last 4kms are going to be, the race was blown apart and it was a real slog to the line.

The peloton starts the race heading west from Downtown Richmond, working their way onto Monument Avenue, a paver-lined, historic boulevard that’s been named one of the “10 Great Streets in America.” Racers will take a 180-degree turn at the Jefferson Davis monument and then maneuver through the Uptown district and Virginia Commonwealth University.

Halfway through the circuit, the race heads down into Shockoe Bottom before following the canal and passing Great Shiplock Park, the start of the Virginia Capital Trail. A sharp, off-camber turn at Rocketts Landing, 12kms in to the route brings the riders to the narrow, twisty, cobbled 200-meter climb up to Libby Hill Park in the historic Church Hill neighborhood. Libby Hill is going to be the first testing point on each circuit and one of the key testing point on the last circuit when the pace is going to be flat out. They enter the hill with a that sharp right hand turn and although the road isn't very steep, it still averages 8% for the 215m of the main part of the climb but the hill starts and finishes before and after the cobbled part. The road twists in an s-shape as they climb but if you are at the front, especially on the last lap, you will be able to ride up concrete drain on the right hand side of the road to get off the cobbles. Everyone else will be on the cobbles, but they are not exactly Paris-Roubaix like, they're quite small and smooth.

A quick descent, followed by three hard turns leads to the bottom of their next challenge, the 100-meter-long cobbled climb up 23rd Street. Although it's only 100m long it averages 12%, hitting a max of 13% so it will probably make a selection every time up if for a number of the final laps. Once over the top there's only around 2.2kms left to the finish line, so expect plenty of attacks on its steep slopes from the likes of Greg Van Avermaet before they descend into Shockoe Bottom. This leads them inside the final kilometre and on to the final 300-meter-long climb up Governor Street. At the top, riders face a 680-meter false flat to the finish. This final climb and false flat to the finish will be familiar to a number of the riders by now as it is the same finish as has been used in the time trials. We have seen some riders crawl up it in the TT, whereas others have charged up it and made time up in the last kilometre.

Former Pro Davide Cassani has made this video of the course below which shows that even some of the descents look tricky with cobbled roads and you can also see how Libby Hill can be climbed in the drain.

Course Map

2015 WC roadrace map

Course Profile

Climbs

2015 WC roadrace profile last4kms

Contenders and Favourites

I think the best way to go through the Contenders and Favourites for a race like this is by country, as there are just so many men that could win this race, it will at least bring a bit of structure to the thought process! Team tactics will be a hugely important factor in a race like this, with the countries with the bigger representations, like Italy or Spain, looking to wear out and grind down the opposition ahead of striking with their main men at the finish.

kristoff wins Starting with the country of the favourite - Norway - a country that has won the World Championships already in 2010 with Thor Hushovd, they have a big chance of doubling their gold medal tally with King Kristoff. This looks like a course made for Alexander Kristoff, and he has said as much this week too. A long, hard day in the saddle, possible wind and rain and plenty of cobbled hills to ride over. The big man showed once again this spring that he is a man to be feared over courses like the Tour of Flanders, always looking supremely powerful and in control and easily sprinting to victory from Niki Terpstra and the perpetually unlucky Greg Van Avermaet.

But it wasn't just Flanders he rode well in, he has been in incredible form all season. Right from the very start of the year winning three stages in Qatar, through KBK where he was 2nd, a stage in Paris-Nice, 2nd in Milan-San Remo, winner of the Tour of Flanders and the Scheldeprijs, stages in the Tour of Norway, Tour de Fjords, Tour de Suisse and the Artic race of Norway. The only blemish on his season was a blank at the Tour de France, but it looked for a while like he was going to win on the Champs Elysees, only getting passed at the death. Just recently he has warmed up for this race with a victory at the GP Ouest France - Plouay, a hilly circuit with a tough climb like here, just 4kms from the finish. He also finished 3rd in Quebec behind

He was 8th last year in Ponferrada, winning the 'sprint' ahead of Degenkolb and Bouhanni on a course that didn't suit him as much and I think he has a massive chance of victory this year. Norway will work, but they don't have to do all of the work - there are plenty big teams here like Italy, Spain and Germany who will be working to keep the race together, so Kristoff can sit in and hide away for most of the race. As we have seen in races like Flanders, Kristoff is capable of going away on an attack in the closing kilometres, especially with a finish like this, but more likely he will sit in and wait for the sprint finish.

The penultimate climb to the line will be a big test - if he is not on a good day he may not be able to go with the front-runners, but if he gets over that towards the front of the race, I don't think the final climb of Governer Street at 7% will be too hard for him. The finish is a deceptively hard pull up to the line, and it's a long finishing straight. It's unlikely we will see lead-out trains as such in such a chaotic sort of finish, so it will be every man for himself, and Kristoff is a master at the long, powerful sprint. He looks like a very strong candidate for the win to me and I backed him a few weeks back at 7/1.

It's likely that Norway will be riding solely for Kristoff, although Edvald Boasson Hagen and Lars Peter Nordhaug are two wild cards that could be called upon should anything happen to Kristoff, he has been known to have his problems on the cobbles sometimes. Breen, Bystrom and Laengan make up the rest of the six-man squad.

Almost joint favourite with Kristoff, and in 2nd place in the betting - where else would he be except 2nd place - is Peter Sagan of Slovakia. He too deserves to be at the top of the betting with a parcours like this, there aren't many better than him at a sprint from a select group at the end of a hard day with cobbled hills. He too has had a pretty good year, with no fewer than THIRTY NINE top 6 finishes this year, including fifteen second places.

He has been targeting these World's, entering the Vuelta when he hadn't originally planned to, but although it started brilliantly for him, it didn't exactly go to plan in the end. After seven top three finishes in the TDF, but no wins, he finally notched a Grand Tour stage win in the Vuelta, winning in a sprint ahead of Bouhanni and Degenkolb. And just when it looked like he was going to possibly win a second stage he veered in to the path of a speeding motorcycle and was sent flying. He had quite nasty road rash from the crash and abandoned that night, but I'm pretty sure he wasn't going to stay much longer in the race anyway, I think he would have pulled out to go prepare for the World's. The injuries probably made him pretty uncomfortable for a week or so, but it wouldn't have set his training back all that much, unless there was something deeper than just road rash.

He had three weeks to recover though and looked to be going strong in the TTT on Sunday and luckily avoided the crash that took out Rogers and Valgren. He hasn't got a good squad to support him though with just his brother Juraj and Michael Kolar in support, so he will have to ride his own race and piggy back the bigger teams.

Michael Matthews is really looking forward to this race and has the support of a powerful Australian team too. The nine-man Australian team includes Simon Gerrans, Michael Hepburn, Heinrich Haussler, Mitchell Docker, Luke Durbridge, Jay McCarthy, Matthew Hayman and Simon Clarke. Matthews has had this race as his big goal for the year, ever since the last World's, where he was left disappointed with 14th place. Matthews has had a solid year, getting off the mark in only his fourth race of the year in Paris-Nice on the uphill finish of Stage 3, ahead of Cimolai, Nizzolo and Kristoff. He also won a tough stage in Pais Vasco and finished 2nd for the second year running in Brabantse Pijl, when he should have won if they hadn't let Hermans go, a course that features a cobbled climb just a few kilometres from the finish also.

He also won a tough stage in the Tour de Suisse with three laps of a hilly circuit, finishing ahead of Sagan, GVA and Degenkolb. He drew a blank in the Tour de France but in preparation for these World's he won a stage in the Tour of Alberta and finished 2nd in the GP de Quebec, which he would have won again had they not let Uran go, but had Kristoff behind him. Mathews looks in great shape and will like this long slog, he almost won Milan-San Remo this year after all, finishing almost level with Degenkolb and Kristoff. If it does come down to a last lap charge to the line, he would have one of the best teams here, Gerrans, Haussler, Clarke and Durbridge will be right there at the front and he could be one of the few sprinters with a lead-out. He has a great chance of a top finish in this race and will have his supporters at 12/1.

Should anything happen to Matthews in the race, Gerrans looks, on paper at least, the most likely to challenge for the win. He can survive hilly courses as we know, being a winner of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but isn't a fan of the cobbles, he generally skips the Flanders races in favour of the Ardennes. He hasn't had a great year though with crashes and was totally anonymous in the Vuelta. But with Gerrans, you can never rule him out and the word is that the Australian camp could be split between supporting Bling and Gerrans. I am torn between ignoring him and wanting to have a saver on him just in case, he's a little bit short though as a back up plan with no form to go on at just 40/1. I'll think a bit more about him.

Germany are led by John Degenkolb, the brilliant winner of this year's Milan-San Remo, Paris-Roubaix and the final stage of the Vuelta just a few weeks back. Besides those wins though he has been a bit disappointing to me, especially in a year when Marcel Kittel let the door open for him to be the no. 1 sprinter at Giant-Alpecin. No stage wins in the Tour but an unlucky second to Martin in Cambrai, and almost no stage wins in the Vuelta, leaving it until the very last stage. He came very close to a podium in Valkenburg in 2012, taking 4th place behind Valverde after Gilbert and EBH had slipped the net. He showed that day (at 267kms) and in the Cambrai stage in the TDF (233kms) and at Milan-San Remo (293kms) that he is well able to handle long, hard days in the saddle and still come up with a decent sprint at the end.

He is supported in the German team by Geschke, Greipel, Knees, Martens, Martin, Voss, Frohlinger and Sieberg - a pretty powerful squad. You just know that Greipel will work his socks off for him if he's asked to and Martin, Knees, Geschke, and Sieberg will work hard to keep it together. If it comes to the sprint, he could well have Paul Voss, one of Sam Bennett's lead-out men at Bora-Argon, dragging him in to position on the false flat as they approach 500m to go. He probably needs to be on Krisftoff's wheel and hope that he has gone too long and hit him in the last 50m like he did in MSR. Again, like Matthews and Kristoff, he has a fantastic chance in this race and could well be World Champion on Sunday. His inability to finish things off this year worries me though, he hasn't showed the finishing power since the spring to show he can win this.

Should anything happen to him in the race, Greipel has a big chance, if on a really good day. On a really good day, these cobbles and these hills shouldn't trouble him greatly and he would be one of the best sprinters if he can be dragged to the last 300m in a good position. Simon Geschke looks the only other possible winner from that squad, if a strong break goes late in the race, he could be in it covering the move. If he comes to the line with a small group he could well win a sprint, depending on who he's against. That's a 300/1 long shot though.

Van Avermaet tdf15 The Belgians have a real problem - I'd hate to be the team boss this week. And when I say problem, it's a case of 'too many cooks' - there are so many potential winners in the team. Greg Van Avermaet is the shortest of the team in the betting, at 16/1 and he's a rider who I think will have a big ride on Sunday. GVA has been brilliant this year and remarkably consistent, he has been finishing in the top 10 of races all season long. 2nd in Strade Bianche, a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico, 3rd in Flanders, 3rd in Paris-Roubaix, 5th in Amstel Gold Race, a stage in the TDF and loads more top 10 finishes, he's really come of age this season. Desperately unlucky in the Clasica San Sebastian when he was knocked off his bike by the man moto moron, he showed how well he can climb that day, as he did in the stage win in the Tour when he sprinted away up the hill to Rodez and even managed to outsprint Peter Sagan at the finish. (left)

I think he will be the protected rider in the team Sunday and will cover the attacks in the last 4kms and go for it on the final hill up Governor Street. It's going to be hard to hold on up the finishing straight, but the chase will find it hard too like we saw in the U23 race Friday. I think he has a great chance of a top 5 finish at worst and the 16/1 with Corals paying 4 places, or Boyles paying 5 places if you can get on with them, looks a decent bet to me.

I think we will see Philippe Gilbert attacking on Libby Hill the last time up to stretch things out and make others chase him while GVA sits in behind the likes of Keukeleire, Vandenbergh, Vanmarcke, Boonen and Keisse. If it does come down to a bunch sprint, Boonen could be a big danger though on a selective day like this, but I'm not sure he's got the kick any more to beat some of those mentioned above. Ties Benoot has had a good year for a 21 year old and on another day he could go well on a course like this, but even finishing a monster race like this will probably be an achievement for him.

The Czech Republic have a strong squad here and are led by Zdenek Stybar who has a great chance on a course like this and with the weather looking like it's going to turn nasty, the former World Cyclocross Champion could really enjoy himself on Sunday. The superb winner of Strade Bianche ahead of GVA, he also won a great stage of the Tour, attacking on the hill in Le Havre, the sort of attack that if he did it on Governor Street could see him stay away to the finish. He is supported by Roman Kreuziger, Petr Vakoc and Jan Barta, and can sit in behind his Belgians and German mates and pounce near the finish. He is being heavily supported this week too as the weather is changing and is now as short as 10/1 with Paddy Power, he's still available at 22/1 with Corals though who are paying four places.

Reigning champion Michal Kwiatkowski is looking to try to retain his title and follow in the footsteps of Paolo Bettini in 2006/07 in making it two in a row. You have to go back to 1960/61 for the last time that we had a two-in-a-row winner with Rik Van Looy, it's not an easy feat by any means to win the World's two year's in a row. The Poles have only 6 riders this year, compared to the nine they had last year, but they have a strong squad to support him with Bodnar, Bole, Golas, Majka, Marcznsky and Paterski. He is being supported this week a little and varies from 20/1 to 33/1 and could well be involved at the finish. I think he will have a big challenge though to win this year though, he won't beat the faster sprinters if it comes down to a reduced group sprint, he will find it hard to get away being the reigning World Champion, and he hasn't exactly been in great form this year, the last time he even came close to winning was when he won Amstel Gold race in April. Not for me this year.

The three traditional powerhouses of world cycling - Spain, Italy and France just about squeeze a rider in to the top 10 in the betting, Alejandro Valverde being the shortest priced representative. Spain always have a strong squad at the World's and this year is no exception. Valverde probably leads the team, but there are a number of others who could also go well here - Joaquim Rodriguez, Luis Leon Sanchez, Daniel Moreno, JJ Lobato and Ion Izagirre are all capable of big rides, but the most likely scenario is they ride for Valverde and he sucks wheels in the closing stages in an attempt to get to the last climb with a chance of victory. I am not convinced he will be able to win on Sunday, he will have to work really hard in the last 5kms to be in a good position which will be hard on the cobbled finish and it may take the sting out of his sprint. He is not likely to go on the attack in the closing stages so I can't see him winning. Daniel Moreno could attack over the top of the steep 23rd Street and if the others look around at each other he might be gone before they know it. That's a long shot though!

Italy come here with a squad packed with talent, led by a man with a point to prove and some excellent recent form - Vincenzo Nibali. Nibali of course was thrown off the Vuelta after hitching the most blatant car ride you're ever likely to see, but it seems to have fired him right up. He went out three weeks later and came 2nd in the Coppa Agostini behind Rebellin, then won the Coppa Bernochi, beating Finetto and Trentin. 3rd and 5th in his next two races showed he is in great shape and it saw him being backed from 100/1 down to as low as 22/1, which I think is far too low now. Yes, he's the Italian champion and former TDF winner. Yes he is in great form and full of anger and motivation to prove a point after his Vuelta ejection. But I can't see how he can win it, unless he tries to solo to victory from before the final set of hills. He won't get away on 23rd St, he will struggle to make a gap on Governor street on the pull up to the finishing straight and he won't win a sprint unless he's solo! So, no, Nibali won't win as far as I'm concerned.

The Italian team have some fantastic talent to support them though, with a number of riders who could be winners on any given Sunday. Giacomo Nizzolo could hang in there and win a select sprint. Fabio Felline likewise. Daniel Oss and Manuel Quinziato are two machines that could go on the penultimate lap, and if with a good break, could make it all the way. Elia Viviani could win the sprint, if he is on an exceptionally good day and hangs in there on the cobble climbs, but frankly, I can't see it happening. Matteo Trentin on the other hand could be a big danger. The Etixx-QuickStep man trains on the cobbled hills of northern Europe with E-QS and has a good kick on him after a hard day - it could be that he is actually one of their best options if they decide to get behind him. Another of their riders with a big chance at victory here is Diego Ulissi - like him or loathe him, he's a bike racer who will like this finish. I'm not sure how he'll go on wet cobbles, but if he can hang in there until the finishing straight, he has a big chance of sprinting to victory from a small group. He's as big as 50/1, as short as 33/1 so he's had his supporters this week, but I think he's a little short for me now to win it.

demare u23 WC France have a number of outsiders that could go well on a day like this - if it comes to a bunch sprint, Nacer Bouhanni could go well, but I can't see it happening. If it's more a select group, Arnaud Démare has a decent chance of being involved. This may seem like madness, but he could be one of their best chances if they get behind him and ride to try to position him for the possible reduced sprint. 10th in Omloop Het Niewsblad, 2nd in a stage of Paris-Nice, beating Degenkolb, Kristoff, Matthews and Bouhanni, 7th in the bunch sprint behind the break in Gent-Wevelgem on that epic day in the rain and wind earlier in the season. In the Belgium Tour he finished 2nd in the first stage behind Boonen but won the next two stages on pretty lumpy course and in the Eneco Tour he finished 2nd in a tough stage behind Boonen again but ahead of the likes of Viviani and Greipel.

And his record in the World's isn't bad either - 5th in 2010 in the U23 race behind Matthews, Degenkolb, Phinney and Boivin, and then WON the U23 World Champs in 2011 in Copenhagen. What about late season form? Well he wasn't selected for the World's last year on a course that didn't really suit him, but instead he went out and won the Kampioenschap van Vlaanderen, the GP d'Isbergues and three stages of the Tour de l'Eurométropole, a pretty amazing end to his season, winning 5 races in two weeks. He has to be worth a shot at 150/1 with Corals eh? He's also 125/1 and 100/1 elsewhere. I can't see why he is 10 times the price of some of the other sprinters.

Besides Démare and Bouhanni, France also have big chances with Tony Gallopin and Julian Alaphilippe. Gallopin hasn't had a brilliant season when a lot was expected of him. A good winner for us in the stage to Nice of Paris-Nice in dreadful conditions, 4th in Brabantse Pijl, or 3rd in the sprint behind Hermans, since then he has been ok, but not great and not good enough to win this I think. Julian Alaphilippe though has had a really good year, the highlghts being his two 2nds in the Ardennes races. He rode a great race in the final stage of the Eneco Tour up the Mur de Geraardsbergen, chasing home the three breakaway riders with GVA to finish 5th. The team are probably not going to ride for him and he may be a bit young for a long, hard race like this, but if on a good day he could be near the front coming to the last 5kms and could try something on 23rd Street or on the final hill, he has a very good kick on hills like that as we saw in Fleche-Wallone and a good sprint at the end of a stage too. I backed him weeks ago after that stage of the Eneco Tour at 50/1, he's still the same price and he's worth a small saver I think.

And we have just reached the Dutch.. Another squad packed full of household names and world class riders. Who will they be riding for is the question, there are so many similar riders in the team.. Bauke Mollema looks the most likely given how well he rode in Alberta and Quebec, he is in great form at the moment. If you exclude his GC win in Alberta though, you have to go back to May of last year and the Tour of Norway to find the last time he actually won a race. He has finished 9th, 7th and 5th in Fleche-Wallone though and finished 18th and 11th in the last two World's so he could go well, he's as big as 200/1. Lars Boom could go well also if the conditions do get epic, he could try a long, late attack, as could Niki Terpstra, he has been putting in some big training numbers this week, apparently doing 1h 30mins behind a scooter with an average speed of 57kmph, he must be planning a big, long, hard effort on Sunday! He could be a trading bet on Betfair, but he is shorter on Betfair (35/1) than he is with the bookies, so it would be better to back him with Paddy Power at 40/1 and see if you can do cash-out if he gets in a dangerous move.

They also have Tom Dumoulin who should be recovered from his saddle sore and could well monster it up Libby Hill, like he did on the first stage of the Vuelta, on the last lap and time trial away from them as they look around at each other wondering who will chase him. Pim Ligthart could be involved but I can't see him winning, Gesink, Langeveld, Van Baarle and Van Emden make up the rest of the squad and they will all have their part to play, but I think they will be a very visible and active squad, but ultimately will come up short.

And there are just so many more who could go well Sunday evening, it's crazy. The British team look light compared to recent editions, with no Cavendish, Froome, Thomas, but they have Stannard, a man who could do a monster attack late on and solo to victory. Adam Yates might have a chance based on his ride in San Sebastian, but it will be hard for him to solo away from a field like this. Ben Swift would be their best chance in the sprint, if they can get him there but I don't think he'll be involved. Cummings might try a long effort, but I can't see any British riders in the top 10 this year.

RuiCosta-wc Portugal have former World Champion, and one of my favourite riders, Rui Costa here and if the conditions get nasty, his chances of a big result increase. He may be a former World Champion, but I think he still flies under the radar a little in races like this and is well capable of pulling off a big ride. He will like the course, the distance is no problem to him as we saw when he caught and passed Rodriguez in the finale of the 2013 World's. He warmed up for this with a fine 3rd in Montreal, chasing home Wellens and Yates and looks too big to me at 100/1. I backed him at 100/1 after Montreal but he's only 50/1 with that bookie now, but there is still 100/1 with Betway or you might get better than 50/1 nearer to the start on Betfair.

Denmark have a pretty decent looking squad here with Lars Bak, Rasmus Guldhammer, Chris Juul-Jensen, Michael Morko and Michael Valgren, although Valgren was pretty raw after the crash in the TTT. But their best chance of success is probably Matti Breschel, a man that seems to always go well in the World's. He has finished in 3rd, 7th, 2nd and 4th in the four World's he has finished in the last 5 years, a phenomenal set of results. He won two stages in the Tour of Denmark, showing that he still knows how to get his nose in front, but I think it will be a big ask for him to finish on the podium tomorrow.

South Africa have Daryl Impey who could go well, as could his team-mate Michael Albasini for Switzerland on a course like this. Taylor Phinney is probably the only American who might feature at the business end, but Tyler Farrar could surprise a few, he's on home soil and has been riding well this year. Sam Bennett could go well for Ireland, although the longer distances are something he still is getting used to, and Conor Dunne is almost a certainty to get in the early break of the day! Lithuania have a potential hope in Ramunas Navardauskas, he likes a wet and hard day.

drucker But finally I come to my joker of the day - a 200/1 shot! Luxembourg may have only three guys in this race, and Didier and Kirsch may not even finish, but in Jempy Drucker they could have a lively outsider for glory here. Jempy has had a good season, culminating in a fine win in the Surrey Classic. He has admitted himself he likes the races to be as long and as hard as possible and he won't mind the rain. He's good over cobbles and packs a decent sprint at the end of a hard day. Instead of going to Richmond early he stayed in Europe and rode in the Classic Impanis - Van Petegem where he finished 5th. I think he could hide away in behind the Belgians, Dutch and Germans, where he'll know a lot of the guys, and could finish well. I backed him at 250/1 with 5 places during the week and he's still available at 200/1 - I don't think he's a 200/1 shot.

Conclusion

So there we are. As Carlton would say 'Who's going to reach out and grab the glory?" It's very, very hard to call. I could back thirty guys and possibly still not have the winner! But working through all of that above, I am sticking with Alexander Kristoff as my main pick, but having watched the U23 and Junior races so far, there could be carnage.. there were so many guys with problems and mechanicals and slips. I don't think there will be too many guys coming to the last hill in the front group, it could be like Tuscany two years ago. Or there could be a bit of a regathering on the flat section before Governor Street and we could see an all out battle up the final hill and a small group of 20 or so come to the line.

The tough, strong men like Stybar, Van Avermaet, Costa, Terpstra, Trentin, Nibali, Kwiatkowski, Degenkolb, Kristoff, Drucker, Sagan and possibly Valverde. Maybe Matthews, Démare, and other like that can hang in there too, and we could either see the likes of Van Avermaet or Costa attack solo or it comes down to a sprint amongst them - and Alexander Kristoff could be involved either way. It might all depend on just how many 'domestiques' there are to help pull things back together, if it's just the main favourites then it will be just a mess of guys looking at each other and someone could well slip away and stay away, like Kwiatkowski last year. It's going to either be a fantastic race or 255kms of boring tactical chasing and 6kms of all out attack, hopefully the former. I've scattered a few bets below between favourites and longshots, hopefully we can see a winner from them.

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