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Published on Friday, 04 April 2014 17:55

Tour of Flanders 2014 Preview

Sunday 6th April, 259kms

Milan San Remo may be the first monument of the year and it did produce a thrilling finale, but for most fans, this weekend marks the start of the classics season proper. The Ronde Van Vlaanderen!

These coming weeks are where the real 'Classics' legends are born or add to their already legendary, hero-like status. There are plenty of past winners lining up, several in with chances of a repeat victory.

Fabian Cancellara won last year in commanding style, first putting the hurt on Sagan on the Kwaremont and then simply riding away from him on the Paterberg. In 2010 he attacked some 44km out on the Mollemberg and only Boonen could stay with him, but again, simply rode away from him too on the Muur Van Gerrard bergen to solo to victory.

Boonen himself is an absolute legend of this race, I was there in a field near Ronse with a huge crowd of fans who went delirious when their man won.

Winner also in 2005 and 2006, he has been one of the strong favourites for the race, behind Cancellara since his strong showing so early in the season in the Tour of Qatar and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. He suffered a family tragedy which understandably has seen him a little off 100% in recent days, but I fully expect Tom to be riding to his limit on Sunday.

Other winners lining up: Double champion Stijn Devolder ('08 & '09) is here and in great form.. more on him and why I'll be screaming for him Sunday below!

Nick Nuyens is here also, winner in 2011 but he hasn't found anything like that kind of form in a long time. And that's about it then, as between Cancellara, Boonen and Devolder there has only been Nuyens and Ballan (2007) who have managed to get a look in in the last 9 years. 

The Route 

The race starts in Bruges again, the beauty and tranquility of the city a marked contrast to the chaos and suffering to come. From there they head south to Roeselare and Kortrijk and do a little horse-shoe shaped loop before heading south east and on to Oudenaarde. 

And it is in this corner of the course where the race will be decided. Sure, a break will have gone early but it will be doomed even if they get 8-10 minutes.  They first head east, almost to Zottegem taking in the first four cobbled sections of the day.

Heading south again they take in section 5 of the cobbles on the Haghoek. At this point they'll have also passed 6 of the 'Hellingen' or cobbled climbs including the Eikenberg and the Molenberg but these are just appetisers to the main course still to come.

That's because after around 200km they start in to the decisive section of the race, starting with the second ascent up the Oude Kwaremont after 205kms, followed just 3km later by the Paterberg. More on those below, but as they are pretty tough obstacles there may be a selection of some sort but it may still be too far out to see any decisive moves from the favourites.

Just 7kms later though we could see the first major moves of the day when they hit the Koppenberg. I rode up this 2 years ago the day before the race and there are some key points as to why it can be decisive. First, they come in fast to it on a slightly downhill. Then it's a sharp right turn in to a really narrow funnel. The barriers stick out quite a lot on the road so the width they can pass is only about 3m wide. My thoughts when I saw it were "this looks like a crash zone" and sure enough in 2012 there was a crash there. Next, the climb is short but steep, rough and narrows even more the further up it goes (left). And finally, the cobbles are slippy! Even on a dry day my back wheel was slipping as I rode up it. The forecast says there is around a 50% chance of rain so it could get messy!

Positioning will be crucial and it could be where the likes of Devolder and Boom try to go as the favourites watch and mark Cancellara and Vanmarcke. 

Just 5km later they hit the Steebeekdries and 2km later the Twain berg. Both of these are on the easier side at around 7-800m and averaging around 5.5%, but nothing is easy after 222kms! Next up is the Kluivert which is 1km long at 6% and is the last hill before the probable decisive final ascents of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg.

The Kwaremont is horrible.  It's not the steepest at 4.2% average but it does go on for 2.2kms! It's where we can expect the final selection to take shape - last year, Cancellara put the hammer down and rode away from all bar Sagan. This year we could also see Terpstra, Vanmarcke, Thomas, Stybar, Boonen, Devolder and maybe more try to stay with Cancellara when he goes. 

What also makes this section so decisive is that just 3km later, with the lactic acid still burning in their legs from the Kwaremont they face a second ascent of the Paterberg.  It may only be 380m long but its 13.7% gradient rips things apart again. This is where Cancellara pressed the button and said sayonara to Sagan. From the top there's only 13km left to the finish in Oudenaarde.

Contenders and Favourites

There are plenty of riders who are in fantastic form at the moment and it should be a fascinating battle on Sunday. We have seen so much attacking racing lately it's been brilliant to watch.  The relentless attacking in Gent Wevelgem, the Three days of De Panne and Torreno have teed this race up to be potentially one of the most exciting races of the year.

One of the features of this year's race is the battle between the young guns and the old experienced classics masters. Boonen, Cancellara and Devolder have been there, done that, worn the t-shirts on multiple occasions.  Sagan, Vanmarcke, Kristoff, Defend old and even dark horses like Florian Seneschal of Cofidis are all still wet behind the ears.

We have to start with Trek Factory Racing for two reasons.  Firstly because I think Fabian Cancellara will take all the beating again this year. Reigning champ and destroyer of the entire field last year, the signs are looking good for him again this year.

He was unlucky to be caught up in a crash in E3 Harelbeke but his chase back was just insane. He was passing riders like they were sportive plodders. He is reportedly at the same level now as he was last year and that's an ominous warning to his rivals. He has placed in the top 3 in the last 10 monuments he finished, so expect him to be an instigator of the decisive moves in the last 40kms. 

What can stop him? OPQS look super strong this year and can work together to keep tabs on him. A very large nervous field on wet slippy roads could see accidents and crashes.  Two years ago when we were there he had crashed out in the feeding zone before they had even reached us. Sagan is a year older and looking strong. He is short at 2/1 now but I've had some 5/2 since January and have added some more at 11/5 this week.

If something happens to Cancellara or if he happens to just be on an off day then they have an excellent deputy in Stijn Devolder. Twice previous winner of this race, he somewhat lost his way a little for a few years after moving to Vacancesoleil, but this year has regained his mojo and is flying. 

I got word in mid March that he was in tremendous shape and targeting the Ronde.  He was available at 250/1 on Paddy Power and I got 0.75pts each-way on to win a nice four figure sum, so I'll be screaming him on on Sunday! I did post it on twitter near the time when he was still available at 100/1,  hopefully some of you took it, he's now 33/1 and as short as 14/1!! He could go early in the hope that he gets away as they watch Spartacus, and depending on who goes with him (an OPQS man like Stybar would be good to put off a chase from those guys!) they could make it. Otherwise he could maybe hang in there if it's a small bunch towards the finish and do the 1-2 with Cancellara over the last 20kms. 

Peter Sagan is probably Cancellara's biggest rival and it will be interesting to see if he can stay with him this year when he presses the turbo button. If he does, he probably wins. His form was a little mixed up until he dominated the E3 Harelbeke when he showed some serious power. He is sure to be right at the front as they hit the Kwaremont for the last time, but will he be able to hold on to Cancellaras wheel? His team isn't the greatest so he could find himself isolated. He looked good in the Three days of de Panne before he pulled out to rest and prepare for Sunday but I'm not interested in backing him, in fact I have a feeling he'll be outside the top 3.

OPQS have a super squad as you'd expect and serious competition for the eight places. They have potential winners in Boonen, Terpstra, Stybar, Vandenbergh, Van Keirsbulck and Maes. Terpstra put in a big effort this week in the 3ddp but came up short to his team-mate Van Keirsbulck. He looked shattered at the end today so I'm not sure he'll have it in the legs after 230kms on Sunday.

Zdenek Stybar was a revelation in Paris-Roubaix last year before coming a cropper thanks to over - exuberant fans. He hasn't been in great form though this year, coming close but not close enough so I don't fancy him to win this or get in the top 3. Vandenbergh could be one with a good chance for them though as he is in superb form and can maybe sneak in to moves Terpstra and Stybar can't. 4th in the Harelbeke and 5th in KBK, he finished with the main pack in 14th place in last year's RVV so is clearly comfortable on these roads. At the prices, I'd rather be on Vandenbergh at 66/1 than Terpstra or Stybar who are around 16/1. As much as I'd like to see Boonen win for the excitement and atmosphere I'm afraid he may not be 100% on Sunday and may not be in the firing line as they hit the Paterberg last time around. 

Belkin have a good team here too with Sep Vanmarcke their top man - he is in the form of his life at the moment. In the last 4 classics he has entered this year he has finished 4th (Omloop), 3rd (KBK), 5th (E3) and 4th (GW). He should be in the front group hitting the Kwaremont but can he stay with Fabian? I fear not but I think he could well be in the little group that chases him and could well make the top 3. He could be a good bet each-way with SkyBet as they are paying four places instead of everyone else who are paying three or if you think Cancellara will ride away from them maybe go with the 2/1 on a top 3 with Ladbrokes.

They also have Lars Boom who on a good day could well be involved.  He's the sort who will go early and hope to get a good group to help him stay away. I think that's the best he can hope for though. 

Lotto-Belisol have last year's 3rd placer Jurgen Roelandts who started the year well with two top 3s in Qatar. He has been close but just outside the top 10 in the Omloop, E3 and GW but his record prior to 2013 doesn't exactly instill confidence. 

Others who could be involved? BMC have Hushovd, Phinney and Van Avermaet who could all go well. In fact I thought Phinney was an interesting outsider in February and had a few quid each-way at 66/1 - but he's as big as 150/1 now! Van Avermaet can go well too at 40/1, he was excellent in Omloop but just missed out to Stannard but also took 10th in the E3 last week finishing 4th in the 'bunch sprint' ahead of Boonen and Roelandts.

14th that day was 20 year old Florian Senechal of Cofidis.  He won Paris-Roubaix as a junior and loves the cobbles. 19th in Omloop and 17th in Dwars Door Vlaanderen he could well be a surprise package at a massive price of 500/1.

There are a few sprinters who could be in with a shout if on a seriously good day such as Degenkolb, Kristoff, Démare, Ferrari and Farrar (left) but it's unlikely, although the forecast bad weather will suit Kristoff and Degenkolb. 

Sky have an in-form and very strong looking Geraint Thomas here and he should be with the main men as things hot up, as long as he hasn't crashed again by then..he's got Wiggins, Eisel, Knees, Boasson-Hagen and Luke Rowe to help him and could be a serious contender on Sunday.

Finally, a few outsiders at big prices - Pozzato at 80-1 could be intersring, Sylvain Chavanel at 50/1 and Langeveld at 100/1.

So it should be an amazing race - I'll do my best to send updates from the roadside over the weekend! Watch out for me, I'll be the one with the Cycling Betting flag!

Recommendations/bets placed:

Stijn Devolder - 0.75pts each-way at 250/1 with Paddy Power

Fabian Cancellara - 4pts win at average of 9/4 with various

Taylor Phinney - 0.2pts each-way at 66/1 (now 150/1!)

Florian Senechal - 0.4pts each-way at 500/1 with Paddy Power

Stjn Vandenbergh - 1pt on him to finish in the top 3 with Ladbrokes at 16/1.

Sep Vanmarcke - 2pts to finish in first 3 at 2/1 with Ladbrokes. 

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STARTLIST

Trek Factory Racing

1.CANCELLARA Fabian
2.DEVOLDER Stijn
3.IRIZAR Markel
4.POPOVYCH Yaroslav
5.ROULSTON Hayden
6.RAST Gregory
7.SERGENT Jesse
8.STUYVEN Jasper

Cannondale

11.SABATINI Fabio
12.SAGAN Peter
13.BODNAR Maciej
14.GATTO Oscar
15.KING Edward
16.KOREN Kristjan
17.LONGO Paolo
18.MARANGONI Alan

Lotto Belisol

21.BOECKMANS Kris
22.BROECKX Stig
23.DEHAES Kenny
24.LIGTHART Pim
25.ROELANDTS Jurgen
26.BAK Lars Ytting
27.DEBUSSCHERE Jens
28.GALLOPIN Tony

Omega Pharma - Quick-Step

31.BOONEN Tom
32.KEISSE Iljo
33.MAES Nikolas
34.STYBAR Zdenek
35.TERPSTRA Niki
36.TRENTIN Matteo
37.VAN KEIRSBULCK Guillaume
38.VANDENBERGH Stijn

AG2R La Mondiale

41.APPOLLONIO Davide
42.BAGDONAS Gediminas
43.CHAINEL Steve
44.MONDORY Lloyd
45.GAUDIN Damien
46.HOULE Hugo
47.MINARD Sébastien
48.TURGOT Sébastien

Astana Pro Team

51.BOZIC Borut
52.GAVAZZI Francesco
53.GRIVKO Andriy
54.GRUZDEV Dmitriy
55.GUARDINI Andrea
56.IGLINSKIY Valentin
57.KAMYSHEV Arman
58.MURAVYEV Dmitriy

Belkin-Pro Cycling Team

61.BOOM Lars
62.LEEZER Tom
63.TANKINK Bram
64.TJALLINGII Maarten
65.VAN EMDEN Jos
66.VANMARCKE Sep
67.WAGNER Robert
68.WYNANTS Maarten

BMC Racing Team

71.BURGHARDT Marcus
72.DILLIER Silvan
73.HUSHOVD Thor
74.LODEWYCK Klaas
75.PHINNEY Taylor
76.QUINZIATO Manuel
77.SCHAR Michael
78.VAN AVERMAET Greg

FDJ.fr

81.BONNET William
82.BOUCHER David
83.DELAGE Mickaël
84.DéMARE Arnaud
85.FISCHER Murilo Antonio
86.LADAGNOUS Matthieu
87.LE BON Johan
88.OFFREDO Yoann

Garmin Sharp

91.BAUER Jack
92.FARRAR Tyler
93.KREDER Raymond
94.LANGEVELD Sebastian
95.MILLAR David
96.VON HOFF Steele
97.VAN BAARLE Dylan
98.VANSUMMEREN Johan

Lampre - Merida

101.BONIFAZIO Niccolo
102.CIMOLAI Davide
103.FAVILLI Elia
104.MODOLO Sacha
105.PALINI Andrea
106.POZZATO Filippo
107.RICHEZE Ariel Maximiliano
108.WACKERMANN Luca

Movistar Team

111.AMADOR Andrey
112.DOWSETT Alex
113.ERVITI Imanol
114.GUTIéRREZ Iván
115.LOBATO Juan Jose
116.QUINTANA Dayer
117.SüTTERLIN Jasha
118.VENTOSO Fran

Orica GreenEDGE

121.DOCKER Mitchell
122.DURBRIDGE Luke
123.HAYMAN Mathew
124.HEPBURN Michael
125.IMPEY Daryl
126.KEUKELEIRE Jens
127.MOURIS Jens
128.TUFT Svein

Team Europcar

131.COUSIN Jérôme
132.DUCHESNE Antoine
133.ENGOULVENT Jimmy
134.GENE Yohann
135.JEROME Vincent
136.LAMOISSON Morgan
137.PICHOT Alexandre
138.THURAU Bjorn

Team Giant-Shimano

141.ARNDT Nikias
142.CURVERS Roy
143.DE KORT Koen
144.DEGENKOLB John
145.DEVENYNS Dries
146.JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt
147.SINKELDAM Ramon
148.TIMMER Albert

Team Katusha

151.GUSEV Vladimir
152.ISAYCHEV Vladimir
153.KRISTOFF Alexander
154.KUCHYNSKI Aliaksandr
155.KUZNETSOV Viacheslav
156.PAOLINI Luca
157.SMUKULIS Gatis
158.TSATEVICH Alexey

Team Sky

161.BOASSON HAGEN Edvald
162.EISEL Bernhard
163.KNEES Christian
164.PUCCIO Salvatore
165.RASCH Gabriel
166.ROWE Luke
167.THOMAS Geraint
168.WIGGINS Bradley

Tinkoff-Saxo

171.BENNATI Daniele
172.BRESCHEL Matti
173.JUUL-JENSEN Christopher
174.KOLAR Michael
175.KROON Karsten
176.BOARO Manuele
177.SøRENSEN Nicki
178.TRUSOV Nikolay

Androni Giocattoli

181.BANDIERA Marco
182.BERTAZZO Omar
183.FACCHINI Patrick
184.HOOGERLAND Johnny
185.PARRINELLO Antonio
186.RODRIGUEZ Jackson
187.TESTI Nicola
188.ZORDAN Andrea

Cofidis, Solutions Crédit en-ligne

191.CAMMAERTS Edwig
192.FOUCHARD Julien
193.GARCíA Egoitz
194.JõEääR Gert
195.LEMOINE Cyril
196.PETIT Adrien
197.SENECHAL Florian
198.ZINGLE Romain

IAM Cycling

201.CHAVANEL Sylvain
202.ELMIGER Martin
203.HAUSSLER Heinrich
204.HINAULT Sébastien
205.KLEMME Dominic
206.KLUGE Roger
207.PINEAU Jérome
208.SARAMOTINS Aleksejs

MTN - Qhubeka

211.CIOLEK Gerald
212.GERDEMANN Linus
213.KONOVALOVAS Ignatas
214.REIMER Martin
215.SBARAGLI Kristian
216.STAUFF Andreas
217.THOMSON Jay Robert
218.VENTER Jaco

Team NetApp – Endura

221.BARTA Jan
222.BENNETT Sam
223.DEMPSTER Zakkari
224.JARC Blaž
225.MATZKA Ralf
226.SCHILLINGER Andreas
227.SCHWARZMANN Michael
228.THWAITES Scott

Topsport Vlaanderen

231.DECLERCQ Tim
232.LAMPAERT Yves
233.THEUNS Edward
234.VAN ASBROECK Tom
235.VAN HECKE Preben
236.VANBILSEN Kenneth
237.WAEYTENS Zico
238.WALLAYS Jelle

Wanty - Groupe Gobert

241.DE VREESE Laurens
242.DRUCKER Jean-Pierre
243.GHYSELINCK Jan
244.KREDER Wesley
245.LEUKEMANS Bjorn
246.SELVAGGI Mirko
247.VANLANDSCHOOT James
248.VEUCHELEN Frederik