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Published on Thursday, 26 March 2015 21:55

E3 Harelbeke Preview

Friday 27th March, 215.3kms

E3 Harelbeke takes place on Friday and is the first taste of the cobbles proper in 2015 for most of the big favourites for the Monuments to come. As it contains a lot of the climbs and cobbles of the Tour of Flanders, all of the main contenders will be here to get in some serious practice with only nine days to go to the Ronde. Peter Sagan won it last year and managed to keep his hands to himself this time on the podium, much to the amusement of Niki Terpstra who finished 2nd.  

The E3 Harelbeke has been going since 1958 and it was named after the old E3 motoroway, which strangely is now known as the A14! It is a fantastic preparation for the Tour of Flanders as it is over a vast majority of the same terrain and cobbled climbs of the Ronde. 

The race starts in Harelbeke's Grote Markt and travels east with a pretty flat opening 110 km, but hit the first cobbles around Oudenaarde and Zottegem. They reach the most easterly point at Ninove after 85 km and after turning west and going through Geraardsbergen and Brakel it starts to get tougher with a succession of short, sharp climbs some of which are cobbled as the race loops between Ronse and Oudenaarde.

The 12 hills in order are La Houppe, Berg Stene, Boigneberg, Eikenberg, Stationsberg, Taaienberg, Oude Kruikens, Kapelberg, Patersberg, Oude Kwaremont, Knokteberg and Tiegemberg. 

Before Sagan's win last year, Fabian Cancellara was a brilliant winner of this in 2013, simply riding off the front of a quality leading group with 35kms to go at the top of the Kwaremont. You can see it (sort of as the director cut at just the wrong moment!) in the video below and he quickly put daylight between himself and Sagan, almost like a dress rehearsal for the Ronde just over a week after. Daniel Oss almost took a superb second after jumping from the chasing group of Thomas, Sagan, Langeveld and Chavanel but Sagan pipped him by milimetres on the line. 

It was Cancellara's 3rd win in the race following his victories in 2010 and 2011. Sandwiched between his wins in 2012 was Tom Boonen who took his record 5th win in the race, following his victories in 2004-07. 2009 winner Pippo Pozzato also lines up in the quality line-up again this year with the cream of the Flanders Classics favourites here to get a final preparation in to the legs. 

The Route

The race is an out and back loop that heads out east and then comes back west to start the criss-crossing of the hellingen around Oudenarde and Ronse after around 120kms. It is the combination of the winds, climbs and cobbles that causes the race to fracture all ove the countryside over the last 100kms. 

The 12 hills in order are La Houppe, Berg Stene, Boigneberg, Eikenberg, Stationsberg, Taaienberg, Oude Kruikens, Kapelberg, Patersberg, Oude Kwaremont, Knokteberg and Tiegemberg. It's when they hit the Taiaenberg with 130km gone that things start to heat up - the 9.5% average over the 1250m will cause the first real significant splits. 

The next 5 Hellingen will see some more pressure being put on at the front and the peloton will be wittled down hill by hill. But it's when they hit the Paterberg and the Kwaremont within 5kms of each other that the final selection will probably be made. 

The Paterberg may only be 500m but it averages 12.5% while the Oude Kwaremont is cobbled for 1500m of its 2200m although its gradient averages 4.2%. It is the Paterberg and the Kwaremont that do the damage and where Cancellara blew away his rivals in the space of about 1 minute in 2013. One point to note about the Paterberg and Kwaremont is that they do them in reverse order than in the Ronde.

In the Ronde, they do the Kwaremont first, and it's long but easier gradient allows the powerful riders to string it out and possibly ease themselves clear of some of the weaker riders.. That is followed by the Paterberg which is steeper but shorter, where the effort is more explosive and can lead to final selections like in the Ronde last year with Cancellara and Vanmarcke. Here, the sharper effort of the Paterberg comes first which means that the likes of Kristoff and Degenkolb could be shed early here and will have to work hard to get back in again by the time they get over the Kwaremont with 28kms to go. 

There is one final bit of Pavé to cross with 197km gone, a 1km stretch at 6.5%, so if there is a select group up the road, this could be the last chance to try to get away solo. 

From there it is a relatively straight and flat run in to the finish in Harelbeke but the one difference from last year is that the course is 3.3kms longer at the finish, the race now finishes outside the E3 stadium. The finish is still long and flat though and should end in a sprint if a small group comes to the finish together.  

Contenders and Favourites

Peter Sagan sprinted to victory here last year from a very select group of four which also contained Vandenbergh and Terpstra from E-QS and Sky's Geraint Thomas. All four are back to renew rivalries and they are sure to play a big part in deciding the outcome again. 

Sagan has started to click just in time for the cobbled classics with a good win in the 5th stage of Tirreno. He also came pretty close to winning MSR, finishing in 4th, three very strong sprinters were in front of him. With Riis having been fired this week, Oleg is throwing his toys out of his pram and there will be intense pressure on Sagan to deliver. It's been a funny old year for him though, lots of close misses before he finally took that win in Tirreno. He wasn't at his best in Strade, but he was far better in Milan San Remo. Which Sagan will turn up tomorrow? Who knows, but you would think he will be involved in the final selection. 

Favourite for the race though is two-time former winner Fabian Cancellara. There is no question that he is the king of the Flanders hills in recent years with multiple wins on these roads. He has an incredible calmness about him when all around him is chaos in these races, and his power is suited perfectly to the short bursts required on the likes of the Paterberg and the Kwaremont. He missed out on the decisive move last year as he crashed just before the Paterberg, he will be eager to make amends for that I think. He has been in reasonable, but not great form this year, we didn't see him attack on the Poggio or on the run in to the finish as he sometimes does, it was his team-mate Felline who was pushing it at the front, but when it came to the sprint, he was probably the first of the 'non-sprinters' in 7th place. I think though that the likes of Vanmarcke and Thomas will have the measure of him this year, and he will find it hard to get away from them. It might come down to a reduced bunch sprint of 5-10 riders and he might find a few too good for him. 

For Niki Terpstra to win he'll have to go away solo and that's a tall ask with a hard race in his legs from the DDV on Wednesday. If he comes here with a small group like last year then he will not win the sprint - he's not exactly Mark Cavendish is he.. He has been in great from though and is reaching his season peak with Flanders a week away. He is capable of getting away but it will require a bit of luck with regards the composition of the group with him at the time. If there's not many left and there are lots of different teams involved then there might be a bit of looking at each other. 

Geraint Thomas is in the form of his life this year, something he even admitted himself today. He showed this in PN when he broke the race up for Richie Porte, attacking and then being able to stay with Porte, who was flying, to take second place on the stage. He also showed his great legs in MSR, initially pushing it with Rowe and Swift in the break that formed after the crash on the descent of the Cipressa, and more so with his acceleration away from Oss in his bid for glory on the Poggio. With Bradley Wiggins looking to be team leader in Paris-Roubaix, Thomas will have to get a good result here I feel to get the squad behind him for PR.

He has a great record in this race in the last two years, and is coming here with better form than ever before. Can he step up and take the victory this year? It's going to be really hard. He will almost certainly be in the selections that form in the last 30kms, and it will depend on the composition of that final group as to how his chances will go. If Sagan is there, he probably won't win.. If it's the likes of Terpstra, Vanmarcke or some others, he might have a chance. He'll probably have to jump on the run in from the front group and try to stay away, but with a head-wind forecast for the final section of the race, it's going to be hard to solo to victory for anyone. The 16/1 offers a bit of value maybe, he has a good chance of a podium place again. 

Zdenek Stybar is another of the seriously powerful Etixx-Quick Step squad that could go well here. He is in brilliant form as he showed with his win in Strade Bianche, and was in contention in Milan San Remo before he was unfortunately taken out by Gilbert on the descent of the Poggio. He showed in Paris-Roubaix two years ago that he can handle the cobbles well, that was until he was unfortunately taken out by a spectator!). He still managed to finish 6th that day. We could see EQS with 2-3 riders in the final selection which will give them the option of letting Stybar attack late on, or he could even win it in a sprint. He has a big chance, but his price isn't brilliant at around 9/1. 

The most consistent rider in the peloton at the moment is Greg Van Avermaet and he comes here in the best form of his life too. So often the bridesmaid, he finally took a big win with a great stage win in Tirreno. He showed on the Poggio in MSR that he was clearly one of the strongest of the favourites, attacking hard. I wonder though will he go full gas in this, or will he hold himself back a little with the Ronde in mind next week - I'm pretty sure I know which one he would prefer to win. Holding back doesn't seem to be in his nature though, he always seems to give it his all. I wouldn't be surprised to see him getting over the Paterberg with the leaders and then driving it up the Kwaremont to try to get rid of some of the sprinter types. He may be part of the leading 10 or so in the business end of the race. 

Speaking of the sprinter types, Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb come here in great form after filling the top two places in MSR. Kristoff showed last year that he is very powerful on the cobbles of Flanders, chasing home the leaders on his own in the Ronde. He looked to be in trouble on the Cipressa last Sunday but recovered well to be in a much better position on the Poggio, but it may be that that slight weakness in his climbing might put him in trouble on the Paterberg, the others are sure to want to try to get rid of him. If they can drop him there and keep the gap to the Kwaremont he will have a hard time getting back on. He has been in such superb form though, I wouldn't be surprised if he hung in there but there is a danger I think that he might just struggle a little. 

On the other hand, John Degenkolb looks in fantastic shape at the moment. He always looked so comfortable in MSR, his face was at the front of the race for most of the last 20kms or so and he seemed to be climbing superbly well. That should serve him really well here and I think he has a fantastic chance of being in the final selection, as long as the celebrations and distractions of winning MSR don't get to him! Last year, he was able to stay with Thomas and Terpstra when they tried to explode it on the Kwaremont but ran out of gas a little later, I think he is capable of staying with them this year, or at least stay with the likes of Sagan and maybe Cancellara who might be just behind the leaders and they could pull it back together for him to take the sprint. I took 14/1 a few days ago with Bet365, there is still 14/1 available with Boylesports. 

Eddie Boassen Hagen, Sebastian Langeveld and Lars Boom are three riders who could go well, as could Oss, Chavanel, Keukeleire and Pozzato but I can't see them winning it with the quality and power of the riders I've mentioned above.. One 'outsider' that could go well is an old favourite of mine, Jurgen Roelandts. He missed the cobbled races last year because of an injury but has started to show some form this year at just the right time, he finished a fine 11th place last week in San Remo. 2nd in this race in 2011 (winner behind breakaway winner Cancellara) and 3rd in the Tour of Flanders in 2013, he knows these roads well and could come in under the radar here at a big price of 66/1.

Overall though, I think that Vanmarcke holds the key to this race. He will rip it up the Taaienberg first of all to make an initial selection and then should go again on the Paterberg and the Kwaremont. Who can stick with him? I think some or all of Thomas, Terpstra, Degenkolb, Cancellara, Van Avermaet and maybe Sagan can and it could come down to a sprint between Degenkolb and Sagan and Degenkolb could take it. There could be some late attacks though to try to shake off the sprinters, on the Teigemberg possibly, and if so Vanmarcke and Thomas could be the strongest there. One final word of warning, Langeveld tweeted today that he did a recon of the course and he said that he was thinking he needed a cyclo-cross bike as it was so muddy out on the course.. it could add an extra element of danger to the race that could dictate the outcome..  

Recommendations:

John Degenkolb - 1pt each-way at 14/1 with Bet365

Geraint Thomas - 0.75pts each-way at 14/1 with Skybet who are paying 4 places

Jurgen Roelandts - 0.4pts each-way at 66/1 with Ladbrokes