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Published on Thursday, 23 March 2017 00:55

E3 Harelbeke

Friday 25th March, 206.4kms

The E3 Harelbeke takes place Friday and is the next installment in the run of cobbled classics in Northern Europe, with Gent Wevelgem coming up on Sunday and the daddy of the Belgian Classics, the Ronde Van Vlaanderen on April 3rd.   

The E3 Harelbeke has been going since 1958 and it was named after the old E3 motoroway, which strangely is now known as the A14, but the race keeps the name. It is a fantastic preparation for the Tour of Flanders as it is over a vast majority of the same terrain and cobbled climbs of the Ronde, including the Paterberg and the Oude Kwaremont.

The race starts in Harelbeke's Grote Markt and travels east with a pretty flat opening 90 km, but hit the first cobbles around Oudenaarde and Zottegem with La Houpe after 92kms the first serious hill of the race. They reach the most easterly point just west of Ninove and after turning west and going through Geraardsbergen and Brakel it starts to get tougher with a succession of short, sharp climbs, some of which are cobbled, as the race loops between Ronse and Oudenaarde.

The race was won last year by Michal Kwiatkowski in spectacular style after a day of chaos and carnage with riders all over the road from a long way out. With just over 60kms to go Fabian Cancellara had a problem with his deraileur and dropped out of contention, only to come charging back through the field like a man on a motorbike. It was incredibly impressive to watch, as he hopped from group to group, burning riders off his wheel at an astonising rate, but for a while it looked like it would be utlimately futile as he had lost too much time to get back to the front group that contained several Sky riders and 6 Etixx-QuickStep riders, even though they took the gap down from over a minute to 26" at one point.

As they hit the Paterberg with 42km to go Kwiatkowski went to the front and shredded what was left of the front group, so there were only 12 riders left as they hit the Kwaremont with 39kms to go. Sagan then blasted over the top of the Kwaremont as word seemed to reach him that Cancellara was coming after them like a man possessed. And as he reached the stragglers of the front group, one of them was Jasper Stuyven, his team-mate, who dropped back to help him. With 32kms to go they made the bridge, in what was one of the most impressive chase-downs you are ever likely to see. It's worth watching the video below from around 36 minutes in to around 1hr 22 minutes to see him in full flow.

But as they hit the Karnemelbeekstraat with 31kms to go, Kwiatkowski defied the commentators, who said it was too far to go for anyone to attack on the climb, and launched a blistering attack. Peter Sagan went with him as Trentin and Stybar tried to come across.. Then Sagan went to the front and that was the end of them, and everyone else, Sagan and Kwiat rode away from them all and on to contest the finish on their own. The gap shot up to over 30" at one point with about 10kms to go, but with 1400m to go there was only 12" in it. It was Sagan's to lose, but lose it he did, as Kwiatkowski caught him napping with a powerful attack with 300m to go. Ian Stannard came out of the pack to make it a memorable 1-3 for Sky.

It made it two wins in a row for Team Sky, following Geraint Thomas's superb win in 2015, while Sagan took victory in 2014. Fabian Cancellara was a brilliant winner in 2013, simply riding off the front of a quality leading group with 35kms to go at the top of the Kwaremont, similar to how Thomas rode away from them all with Stybar in 2015. Sagan has been 2nd in 2016, 2nd in 2013, 1st in 2014 and should have been 3rd in 2015 but he tied up so badly in the last 4kms he was caught and passed by the chasers and ended up in 30th place!

Sandwiched between Cancellara's wins in 2011 and 2013 was a win for Tom Boonen, who took his record 5th win in the race, following his victories in 2004-07. Could Boonen extend his record to 6 wins in the race before he retires?

The Route

The race is an out and back loop that heads out east and then comes back west to start the criss-crossing of the hellingen around Oudenarde and Ronse after around 120kms. It is the combination of the winds, climbs and cobbles that causes the race to fracture all ove the countryside over the last 100kms. 

The new hill added to the route last year after just 28,9kms, the Katteberg stays, but it shouldn't have any bearing on the outcome except maybe to help some attackers try to get away. There are then fourteen more Hellingen to get over in the 94kms between La Houpe after 93kms and the Tiegemberg which comes with just 20kms to go. The full order of the hills is on the right, but it's when they hit the Taiaenberg with 133km gone that things really start to heat up - the 9.5% average over the 1250m usually causes the first real significant splits in any race that goes over it. 

The next 5 Hellingen will see some more pressure being put on at the front and the peloton will be wittled down hill by hill. But it's when they hit the Paterberg and the Kwaremont within 2.8kms of each other that the final selection will probably be made, a reverse order to what they do in the Ronde, when the Kwaremont comes first.

The Paterberg may only be 500m but it averages 12.5% and is particularly steep and rough near the top, while the Oude Kwaremont is cobbled for 1500m of its 2200m although its gradient averages 4.2%. You reach the top of the Kwaremont near the cafe where the Kwaremont beer Gantry is and you mistakenly think that might be it, but the hill keeps going for more than a kilometre after that and the cobbles are particularly rough in the last 500m. It's sometimes the case that the real gaps are made in this section as some riders are on the limit after the pitch up to the cafe and the stronger men press on over the rough last 500m like Sagan did last year. 

The decisive section though last year was the Kamemelkbeekstraat which comes with 30kms to go, when Kwiat and Sagan attacked. It is 1.5kms long at 4.9%, but it starts gently and gets steeper and steeper as it nears the top. Although it's not cobbled it's a horrible rough climb that I have struggled on a few times, my 12-year old boy dropped me on it last year!. There is one final Hellingen to get over with 20kms to go at the Tiegemberg, a 1km stretch at 6.5%, so if there is a select group up the road, this could be the last chance to try to get away solo.  From there it is a relatively straight and flat run in to the finish in Harelbeke with the finish outside the E3 stadium. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a top-quality field that lines up again this year, with all the main Classics riders taking to the startline for a race that although lacks the 'Monument' title of the Ronde, is still one of the most prestigious races of the spring campaign. It has a lot of hills and cobbles though making it a race more likely to be won by a break of some sort compared to say Gent-Wevelgem on Sunday which is more a sprinters race.

Dwars Door on Wednesday has given us some clues as to current form and health for the main protagonists and although I say it's more likely to end in a break winning, it's rarely from the original break of the day but from breaks forced in the peloton as the course gets more intense with about 100kms to go as they approach Ronse and the Kruisberg. 

Now he may have skipped Dwarfs Doors on Wednesday, but we have to start with Peter Sagan. What a man, what a rider, what an entertainer. He is reported to have said after losing MSR that “The results don’t matter. It’s important to give the fans a bit of a show". And give us a show he did. What did it take out of him though, both physically and mentally? He gave it everything, right to the last lunge that nearly won it. But Sagan seems to be made of tougher stuff than almost any other rider out there - I don't think he let's defeats like that affect him negatively though, if anything it just motivates him even more.

And he's had a nice break as well in which to recover, he should be ready to rip it up again on Friday. Everyone will fear Sagan - he is a danger on the Taaienberg, he's a danger on the Kwaremont, the Paterberg, in the run-in and in the sprint. There are just so many ways that he will have an influence on this race.

I think he will follow moves on the Taaienberg but then go hard on the Paterberg to make the first big selection, then go hard again on the Kwaremont, kicking on on the wide open road that drags on for about 500m more after the left turn off the cobbles. There may not be many with him by the time they reach the Kamemelbeekstraat a few kilometres later and he will send a few more out the back door there on the steep latter parts. If it comes to a reduced group sprint, he will almost certainly be there, and it will be hard to beat him.

But he is beatable, as we have seen several times this year already, with Kwiatkowski turning him over in Milan Sanremo and Van Avermaet beating him in Omloop. If there are some strong sprinters with him at the finish he might be beaten if he's done too much out on the road. If Greg Van Avermaet is there, he has the magic sign over him in sprints lately and could beat him again. At least his arch-nemesis Kwiatkowski isn't here, he's taking a break until the Pais Vasco.

Greg Van Avermaet already has the Omloop under his belt, a race that takes in many of these roads and cobbles. He also was 7th in KBK and 2nd in Strade Bianche, as well as 4th in the lumpy stage to Pomerance in Tirreno behind Sagan. Milan Sanremo didn't work out for him on the day, like for so many others, but he comes here eager to lay down a marker ahead of the big one in 9 days time.

Van Avermaet hasn't got a brilliant history in this race though, his best result was 3rd back in 2008 when he was just 22 years old, and after that 10th in 2014 was the next best result. He will mark Sagan closely, he will probably make the final selection, but I wonder if he holds back a little here in preference of saving himself for the Ronde. BMC have a back-up option in Jempy Drucker if it was to come down to a reduced group sprint, and they have a very strong team here with Oss, Gerts, Vliegen, Dillier, Quinziato and Elmiger to look after GVA up until go time.  

Tiesj Benoot and Tony Gallopin are the two main threats from Lotto-Soudal, Benoot being the most likelyto be involved in the big moves that go on the key parts of the course. Gallopin may be sent up the road a little earlier as he'd pack less of a punch on the hard parts than Benoot, it may be that they try to get him in an earlier break to give Benoot some assistance when the groups merge later on. Benoot of course came 5th in his first ever Ronde and was 3rd in the Omloop behind Van Avermaet and Sagan.

Although he seemed to struggle a little at times in DDV and missed the key moves, loitering at the back at times, he still finished 7th in the race, sprinting to 3rd in the first group home. It looks like Benoot might have just had an off-day, but whatever it was, Marc Sargeant, their DS was not a happy man after - "We can’t be satisfied with how we raced. The attractive racing from Lotto Soudal was nowhere to be found. We asked to race aggressively and to not be pushed into the defensive. Only Jelle Wallays, who attacked as planned, and Jasper De Buyst rode a good race. Gilbert and Lampaert showed us how it is done. After Gilbert’s attack on the Berendries we were chasing a dead-end. It was impossible to return. I hope this was a lesson learned and that we straighten our backs this Friday at E3 Harelbeke.”

Sounds like the Lotto boys will be fired up then for this one and Jelle Wallays is clearly riding well and will likely be sent up the road in an attack again. Maybe Benoot still isn't fully over the crash he suffered in Tirreno, but he claimed a few days later after the stage to Fermo that he was happy with what happened when he 'tested his legs after his crash', he finished 13th that day, but 29" behind Sagan. Or maybe they didn't expect the Gilbert move to stick from so far out and expected the sprinters teams to pull it back together, so was not giving it 100% with the key races to come in his calendar.  

Quick-Step have a formidable lineup here too and look like they are about the only team with the armoury to take on the tank Sagan. Niki Terpstra didn't impress me so far this season, and the fact he missed the main move again in DDV was a concern, they way he and Stybar chased back on to the 1st chasing group was super impressive  Maybe it was part of the plan, for Stybar and Terpstra to go later, but they both struggled a little on the Kwaremont and had to chase after that. I think he will improve after that performance though and could well feature again here in a race he finished 2nd in in 2014. He has also finished 13th, 14th, 14th and 15th though, showing that he's good, but maybe just not good enough to land a top 3 this year. 

Zdenek Stybar similar, he rode very powerfully with Terpstra to come back, but he also struggled on the Kwaremont and hasn't had a brilliant start to the year, bar his 4th place in Strade (but wasn't good enough there to even land a podium when one of the most fancied riders). There was a picture I saw from the brilliant photographer Jerard Gruber though of Stybar pounding up the Paterberg's 20% gradient in the big ring, there is power clearly there, he just needs to manage it more effectively.

Tom Boonen leads the team in yet another farewell race, but this is Tom's race - he's won it five times, dating back to 2004, 13 years ago. Tiesj Benoot was still in primary school 13 years ago! But it's been five years since he last won it in 2012, can he find the power from somewhere to make it 6 wins? I'm not sure - he's lacking that punch now that he needs to stay with the best guys on the Paterberg and the Kwaremont. But if, for some reason, the race turns out to be not as aggressive as expected, or if there's a regrouping on the way to the finish, then Boonen might get back on and would be a threat at the finish.

And on top of that they have Philippe Gilbert and Yves Lampaert who were a brilliant double act in DDV, Gilbert deserves a good result here after his unselfish work for Lampaert on Wednesday. Gilbert may well make the leading group with the way he rode on Wednesday, I think it will be a big ask for Lampaert to pull off two big rides in a row. 

You also have Alexei Lutsenko who went so well in Dwars, but it will be hard to follow that up as he looked to have emptied the tank on Wednesday. Sep Vanmarcke reportedly had gastric problems, rather than his ribs affecting him. it could explain why he just didn't have that top-end power on the Kwaremont to go with the big split... or as my source in Cannondale said to me 'he may have just lacked the intensity as he has been dieseling his races recently'.. so power, but no punch... Sebastian Langeveld and Dylan Van Baarle both went well in Dwars, they may feature here too. Van Baarle is one I think that will deliver a stunning, out of the blue ride some day. 

I could go on writing stuff about Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard, Gianni Moscon and Salvatore Puccio for Sky or Stijn Vandenbergh and Oliver Naesen for AG2R who could both feature, Luke Durbridge, Magnus Cort Neilsen and Matthew Hayman could have chances, as could Alexander Kristoff who is supported by Tony Martin. Trek have Jasper Stuyven, John Degenkolb and Fabio Felline, but as two of them are sprinters, and I don't think it will end in a sprint then you are counting on Stuyven to get a result and I can't trust him to do so. And as I have covered everyone up to about 80/1 I think we've passed the winner already. And that winner is Peter Sagan, I really can't see many who will beat him, he is in such good form at the moment and just so much stronger than anyone else.  

Trying to find who will beat him is a lottery, we could see Tiesj Benoot or Greg Van Avermaet go with him, GVA is particularly motivated and is one who can possibly break Sagan, he's done it several times already. But I think Zdenek Stybar could be the one to stay with him, anyone who rips it up the Paterberg in the big ring deserves my respect, I struggle up it in a 42x28.. If there are any sprinters make it with a front group, it's hard to know who goes with them, Alexander Kristoff maybe, but he really struggled on Wednesday. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Peter Sagan at 9/4 with Skybet 

0.5pts each-way on Zdenek Stybar at 10/1 with Ladbrokes or Sky paying 4 places

Matchbets

Boom to beat Stannard - 2pts at 13/8

Vandenbergh to beat Durbridge - 2pts at evens

Drucker to beat MC Neilsen - 2pts at 8/11

Naesen to beat EBH and Gilbert to beat Lampaert - 2pts on the double at 11/10, all with 365