Paris Nice 2015

Stage 1 

Stage 1 - Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse to Contres

Monday March 9th, 196.5km

A dramatic outcome to the prologue today when long-time leader Rohan Dennis was beaten by just 0.31 seconds by Kwiatkowski. It was a brilliant ride by Dennis and a better one by MK. They relegated Tony Martin to 3rd place, but Bradley Wiggins was way off the pace, down in 12th. Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas and Van Garderen did good times to give them an early edge on some of the other GC favourite. They already have around 20" on Barguil, Bardet and Aru, with Talansky about 10" back. 

The results have seen Porte stay solid around 2/1 but Kwiatkowski has tumbled from 9/1 to 7/2 best price, and as short as 15/8 with BetVictor which is a ridiculous price. Dennis has halved in price to 22/1 from 50/1 and Luis Leon Sanchez is in to 25/1 from 66/1 after a fantastic ride to take 4th place. John Degenkolb and Michael Matthews put in two great rides to take top 10 places. This puts them in with a chance of taking the yellow in the coming days with the bonus sprints, as they sit less than 12" back.

This is the first stage for the sprinters, with a dead flat route that takes them from the south-west suburbs of Paris to Contres down in the countryside. They will be heading almost due south for almost the entire distance, only turning right to head west when they hit the second intermediate sprint with 10km to go.

The wind will be important to watch for though as it is likely to be a cross/head wind for most of the day which could cause echelons. The fact that the second intermediate sprint comes with just 10kms to go should mean that the break will be reeled in before then in order to give Matthews and Deggers a shot at the yellow. The change of wind direction for the last 10kms might make it interesting depending on which direction it will be coming from.

It'll almost certainly come down to a sprint finish and we should see a real battle. Alexander Kristoff is the favourite at 11/4, followed by Greipel at 6/1 with Demare and Bouhanni at 10/1 and 7/1. Giacomo Nizzolo is 14/1 and Matthews at 20/1.

Kristoff of course is in great shape and did a pretty good TT today, taking 40th. In his most recent outing he was well beaten by Cavendish but in turn was clearly better than everyone else. He has been dominating sprints all year but this is the first time he has met Greipel this year, so it will be interesting to see how he goes against the big German. It may all come down to who has the best leadout and to me that is clearly Lotto Soudal, with de Gendt, Hansen, Henderson, Bak and Sieberg here to put him in a winning position. I think he needs to ride it like Cav did in KBK and make Kristoff commit early before using his power to come past him at the end. 

Demare and Bouhanni meet again to renew their post FDJ rivalries and they both come here after having a pretty poor start to the year with the best they have mustered between them were two 3rd place finishes. Bouhanni was starting to show signs of clicking in to gear and was unlucky in KBK, and has his main man Geoffrey Soupe with him to get him on the right wheels in the last kilometre. Demare has a decent leadout with him too but has really not been on the pace so far this year, it just hasn't clicked for him at all. 

Giacomo Nizzolo rode very well in KBK last week and just missed the final split. He did a good TT today too, finishing in 32nd so the legs are clearly good. The 14/1 with Ladbrokes looks ok for an each-way bet. 

It's hard to really pick anyone with confidence on the opening sprint of the race with the likes of Matthews not having raced yet this year, but clearly he is strong given the Prologue performance today. A flat sprint isn't really his thing though, but he might go for the bonus sprint with 10km to go to cut the lead back. There are lots of other guys who could get involved and with it being the first road stage and with so many teams and sprinters battling for position, it could be a really dangerous and chaotic sprint. Coquard, Bonifazio, Boonen, Hofland - they could all podium with the right leadout and luck in running. 

So it's a small stakes day with a preference for Greipel given the strength of his leadout, Nizzolo can come close at 14/1. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Andre Greipel at 6/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Giaccomo Nizzolo at 14/1 each-way with Ladbrokes

 

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Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Zooparc de Beauval - Saint-Aignan to Saint Amand Montrond 

Tuesday March 10th, 172km

It looked for a while today like Nizzolo would get up to save the day, he was looking sure of a place when all of a sudden he died and was passed by Coquard and Haussler. Kristoff was superb though, led for a long time, towing a lot of guys behind him and they couldn't come past him. Bouhanni came fast, Haussler came fast.. Degenkolb misread the 300m to go sign according to a tweet he tweeted later on. Demare was nowhere as was Greipel, a poor return from Greipel for a lot of work from his team-mates. 

Another almost dead-flat stage which leaves the Zooparc de Beauval - Saint Aignan and heads south east between the cities of Bourges and Chateaurouxt to a finishing circuit around the town of Saint Amand Montrond. They cross the finish line for the first time with 46kms still to go and go out on a loop north-east of the town, taking in the first climb of the race, the small 3rd Cat ascension of the Côte de la Tour. They crest that with over 40kms still to go to the finish so it is unlikely to have any bearing in the outcome of the race and it'll almost certainly end in a very fast sprint finish. 

It does look like Kristoff is unbeatable at the moment but I can't be backing him at 5/4, there were a lot of guys who got close and may step it up tomorrow. All it takes is bad luck in running too with that many guys fighting for wheels and it's all over. I can't trust Greipel now either at just 6/1 after today, it may be that he hasn't recovered so well after all from that illness he had a few days ago. Bouhanni looked ok but didn't have the power to get past Kristoff and was going backwards as the rest were coming forward in the last 50m. One who did one of the most impressive sprints today though was Heinrich Haussler - he was blocked first by Coquard on the right and then when Coquard got out his way he was blocked by the stopping Degenkolb, he had to stop peddaling. He still kicked again though to take 5th. He looks very big on that performance at 33/1. 

Degenkolb might read the signs better tomorrow and get closer, he showed good power but blew up too early. Rojas looked ok, Coquard looked fast.. it really is a lottery again and I think it's a day to keep the powder dry for later in the race 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Heinrich Haussler at 33/1 with Ladbrokes. 

 

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Stage 3

Stage 3 - Saint Amand Montrond to Saint Pourçain sur Sioule

Wednesday March 11th, 179km

As they continue to head south-east they enter the departements of Allier and Puy de Dôme and it starts to get a little lumpier. Three Cat 3 climbs on the menu, but another 7 uncategorised hills along the way too to maybe make it a day for a breakaway or the punchier riders in the group. The main climb of the day, the Col de la Bosse (2.4kms at 5/1%) is passed with over 80kms to go though and the remaining hills are pretty manageable for professionals like these guys. It'll probably end up in the third sprint of the race, possibly with a slightly reduced group if the pace is really hot and the winds are high.

After two days of stages that have dawdled along and ended in chaotic bunch sprints, this stage could see a little more action. We could see a strong early break go that could get a big gap and force some hard chasing over the hills of the last 90kms.

We could see attacks out of the bunch by the classics types of guys on the Col de la Boss as it is quickly followed by another Cat 3, the Côte de Vice and a several more little lumps over the last 60kms. If they can get a gap of 30" to a minute and things are a little broken up behind it might be hard to organise a chase quickly. But that's still a long shot I think as that first hill isn't very hard at all at just 2.4kms at 5.1%. 

Just in case though that a break goes early or on that hill, one rider who I have been wanting to back at some point this week is Thomas Voeckler.. Europcar are under massive financial pressure and are on the verge of folding. They need a big performance from the team this week to help find a new sponsor and the pressure is mostly on Voeckler and Coquard, but more so Voeckler as the figurehead of the team. 

I was a bit surprised and disappointed to see him on the attack Monday as it looked like a waste of energy, but it actually served a great job in getting the team a lot of coverage, especially in the manner that they kept fighting. It also could have been a good stage to blow off the cobwebs for Tommy, an excellent training day with another shot at an attack in mind. He took it easy today on a recovery day, even stopping to help Coquard which ended up seeing him lose 5 minutes. This will make it a lot easier for him to get away. 

He likes a rolling course like this too and likes it around the Puy de Dome/Auvergne area as well and he may well be planning a crack at it tomorrow. I may be jumping the gun and he may have another stage in mind later in the week but I just have a feeling about tomorrow. At 150/1 it's worth a small investment just in case. 

Of course,  the most likely outcome looking at the course and the betting is a bunch sprint, but today's result has muddied the waters a little again, with Kristoff much bigger now at 13/4 and Degenkolb shorter at 9/2. Greipel of course had to go and win today after I tipping him yesterday, that was bloody annoying. He's the same price as today though instead of shorter, the hilly terrain balancing against his return to form. Michael Matthews and Démare are 8/1 and 10/1 as they got closer today and they won't mind the hilly stuff too much. Démare in particular, he was very close to the stage win and finally looks like he is finding his legs. Degenkolb made no mistake with his reading of the distance markers today and was a very close 3rd. He will be a big danger on a course like this.  

It's a very difficult stage to call though. Can Deggers move it up a few spots and take the win? Will Kristoff come roaring back? Will Demare continue his upward trajectory? I think I'll forget about Bouhanni for now, the guy wanted to win today to pay tribute to the victims of the helicopter tragedy as he knew one of the victims, the boxer Alexis Vastine. He even wore a black jersey at the start line today, but still didn't get close to the podium. If he can't do it with that motivation then he just doesn't have the legs right now. Add in the fact that his main leadout man, Soupe, has gone home makes him unattractive to me for tomorrow. 

One thing to note about the finish though, which could have a big impact on the outcome, is that the final 500m has an average gradient of 3% and there is a tricky right-hand bend with just 300m to go. It looks like a sprint for the stronger men, especially if the hills have taken the sting out of the legs of some of the sprinters. Degenkolb has the added incentive of knowing that he will take the leader's jersey should he win tomorrow and with an uphill sprint like this, and a good squad around him he's my favourite to win tomorrow. 

Giaccomo Nizzolo left me down on Monday when he faded in the last 50m and dropped out of the top 3. He should be there or thereabouts again tomorrow on this uphill finish which suits him better and the 66/1 with PP looks massive. Michael Matthews also has been looking good and the Orica-GreenEdge guys are looking strong at the finishes and could well be the team to lead in to that last right hand bend. If they do, Matthews could have the speed to finish it off on a finish that suits. 

Kristoff of course should be involved but I fear that in the battle for that last bend, he might get squeezed out of it by OGE, TFR and Giant-Alpecin and may lose a few places that could cost him.

Recommendations:

1pt win on John Degenkolb at 9/2 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Giaccomo Nizzolo at 66/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Thomas Voeckler at 150/1 Bet365 (has been cut to 50/1, is still 100/1 with BetVictor

 

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Stage 4

Stage 4 - Varennes Sur Allier to Croix de Chaubouret

Thursday March 12th, 204km  

Well what a go Thomas Voeckler gave it today - you've got to hand it to him, it was a wonderful effort. He missed the break of the day, but went after it and caught it! Then they built up a lead of well over 5 minutes and for a while it was starting to look like they just might do it, and my 150/1 was going to be in with a shout of landing the place money at least. 

Instead they were reeled in and the finish turned out exactly as I had predicted it in one sense - OGE took control, delivered Matthews to the right place on the final bend and he did the rest. They even squeezed out Kristoff as I thought they might! The good news was Nizzolo also got involved and landed a cracking bet at 66/1 taking 3rd place. That returned a profit of 3.55pts on the day here, added to the 2.5pts in T-A, so an alright day. 

The preceeding stages may have been ones for the sprinters, but this is the first real showdown since the prologue on the opening day for the GC contenders. This is a long and hard stage, at 204kms the longest stage of the week. After leaving Varennes-sur-Allier they once again continue heading south-east and hit a road that seems to be straight more or less for over 100kms. If there is a break goes early and there is a wind from the south-east they will have a very long day in the saddle. 

There are two easy Cat 3 climbs early on, they are both part of the same rise really that takes them to the top of the Col du Beau Louis after 54kms. From there it is relatively easy for 90kms, but as they reach Saint-Galmier and the hills north-east of Saint-Etienne it gets quite tough. Two Cat 2s and a Cat 3 climb inside 12kms as they reach the 152kms point are sure to start to sting the legs. After 5kms on a plateau they descend 5kms to start up the climb of the Col de la Gachet, a Cat 2 climb, and this is followed just 3.5kms later by the Cat 3 Cote de la Croix Blanche.

Then a fast descent down to Saint Chaumond where we are sure to see some try their luck on the descent in an attempt to get a little cushion ahead of the final climb up to Croix de Chaubouret. This Cat 1 climb is long at 10kms, but not the toughest climb in the world, averaging just 6.7%. It has a very steady gradient though, maxing out at just 7.8% about 3kms from the finish. It's a power climb and will be ridden at a furious pace by Team Sky I'd imagine in an effort to thin out the GC contenders.

Richie Porte is the favourite for the stage around the 3/1 mark, Rafal Majka is 2nd favourite but his price varies massively from a crappy 7/2 with BetVictor to 9/1 with PP. I think this climb is perfect for Porte and Sky - as long as a break hasn't got too much of a gap then he will be going after the stage win. The gradient is not too steep and the climb is not too long - 10kms at 6.7%. It's a very steady climb though and the last 5kms are slightly tougher, around 7.2% average. I think Sky will hit the front with 6-7kms to go and start to stretch it out at a really fast pace - Wiggins, Knees, Nordhaug and Luke Rowe will do their bit early on in the climb and then Thomas and Roche will take over to deliver him with an opportunity to attack with 3-4kms to go. 

The climb has a very similar profile to the climb of the Alto do Malhao in the Algarve which he won on last month and also the Willunga Hill climb which he skipped away on in the TDU (7% average). Of course he may feel confident of winning this on the Col d'Èze TT on the last day but I think he might be a bit worried about Kwiatkowski who has a 15" head start on him and is clearly in great shape. I think he will want to attack him tomorrow and take back at least 10" on him to make him a lot more comfortable going in to the last few stages. It was Kwiatkowski after all who chased him home in the Algarve just 3" back. 

Kwiatkowski could go ok here too but he has struggled in the past on longer climbs - it may not be the hardest climb in the world, but at 10kms it's a lot longer than the climb in the Algarve which was hard for only about the last 3kms. I think Sky and BMC will pile on the pressure and try to get rid of him and I think they might succeed in putting him under pressure, his team isn't exactly full of climbers, but he does have Tony Martin to drag him up the hill. 

Rafal Majka had a great year last year and his climbing was pretty impressive at times. He wasn't able to stay with Van Garderen in Oman though on Green Mountain and he finished 17" behind him. His prologue was pretty hopeless though so I'm not sure what his fitness is like, he is out of the running almost from day one, being 36" down, 21" behind Porte. He could fight back tomorrow but I'm not sure he has the legs. 

Romain Bardet is around 10/1 and he apparently is full of anger about the Lloyd Mondory EPO situation and could try to take it out on the road tomorrow. He will not beat Porte on the final TT so he will have to take time tomorrow. I think though that it is neither long enough or steep enough for him to really get going so he might have to settle for a top 5 chasing home Porte. 

Van Garderen, Talansky, Kelderman and Aru are all quite similar and are all close in the market around 16/1. It's hard to pick one over the other given the lack of form to go on this year, and there wasn't much between most of them in the Prologue. Aru though struggled and lost 33" so he might be the least fit of these guys. Van Garderen could go well and will also be looking to try to gain some time on Porte ahead of the final stage. I'm struggling to split them though, I'd lean towards Van Garderen maybe making the top 3, but 8/1 is a bit tight for him. 

Others who could get involved? Geraint Thomas will need to look after Porte, but if Porte is not feeling 100% or if he is being marked too closely by his rivals, they could play the 1-2 and let Thomas attack. If they hesitate, he could be gone. When he won his stage in the Algarve he absolutely flew up the hill to catch, and then drop Taaramae. If he can repeat that sort of performance tomorrow he could solo to victory again. Hard to know what team orders will be eh?!

Intxausti, Costa, LL Sanchez, Fuglsang, Spilak, Taaramae, they could all be involved at the finish and there is a chance that a small group of 20 or so riders come to the finish together - who would have the best sprint then of all this lot? Thomas maybe!? Or what about Michael Matthews? Can he hang in there long enough to contest the sprint? It's possible, he showed great legs today, he is in the yellow jersey and he has a good team around him. It's a long shot for sure, but at 125/1 he might just be worth a small e/w bet. Remember the ride he did in the Giro last year to stay with Evans and the break on the stage marred by the massive crash? Well I do, I had him backed at 8/1 - the final climb was 9kms at 5.1%, not that different to this one.. I think though it is going to be a Sky show day and we could see Porte move himself in to pole position going in to the final few days. 

Recommendations

2pts win on Richie Porte at 3/1 with BetVictor

0.5pts each-way on Geraint Thomas at 33/1 with various

0.25pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 125/1 with PP

 

Match-Bets

Geraint Thomas to beat LL Sanchez - 2pts at 11/10

Porte to beat Bardet and Van Garderen to beat Kwiatkowski -  2pts at 11/10 double

 

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Croix de Chaubouret

 

Stage 5

Stage 5 - Saint Étienne to Rasteau

Friday March 13th, 192.5km

An almost perfect prediction for today, with Sky doing EXACTLY as I expected of them practically, winding it up on the climb to set up Porte for the win. I got a call on the train home tonight from my boy who had watched it live at home, he said "did you see Sky today, tactical genius - Nordhaug and Roche killed it and then Thomas and Porte were brilliant" - I couldn't have put it better myself. Nordhaug started the pain, Roche twisted it up several nothches unil there were only about 25 left in contention. 

Thomas did a brilliant job also - attacking at the 3km to go mark forcing Porte's rivals to give chase. Bardet tried and faded. Van Garderen tried and faded. Aru couldn't do anything. Kwiatkowski did a lot of the chasing and by the time he pulled Porte up to Thomas he had nothing left for when Porte went over the top. Thomas showed just how strong he is at the moment by jumping after Porte and riding to the finish with Porte to land the 1-2. Porte at 3/1, Thomas e/w at 33/1. Very nice. Thomas also beat Sanchez to add another 2.2pts but unfortunately the match bet double went down because of the great 3rd place finish by a dogged Kwiatkowski. 

Porte is now hot favourite to win the GC - he is only 1" behind Kwiatkowski and you'd think he'll easily beat him on the final TT by 10 or 20 seconds. He is as short as 1/4 with PP but as 'big' as 4/7 with Bet365. Thomas is looking good to land the each-way money too at 33/1, he is now in to 5/1 as he is just 3" back and 24" clear of 4th place Van Garderen. Kwiatkowski is around 3/1 to take it, he will need to take the win tomorrow you'd think in order to land those odds. 

Unlike in the Grand Tours where a tough mountain stage is almost always followed by another tough mountain stage (or 3 or 4!), this stage goes back to being sprinter friendly again you'd think. Although, looking at the parcours a little closer, this could be the day for the big break to make it. 

Straight from the start in St Étienne they hit a Cat 1 climb up the Col de la République which they cross after just 12.5kms. It should be an explosive start to the day and we could see a group of 10-15 riders chance their luck and try to get away early. And if they do they have a long day in the saddle as they wind south to Rasteau. In the last 67kms there are a couple of little lumps to make things interesting - the Cat 3 Col de Deves after 125kms, the Cat 2 Cote de L'Aleyrac after 148kms and the short, punchy Cote de Buisson which they crest with just 8.5kms to go. If the break are still away I'd expect the stronger men to make their race-winning move here.

If the peloton have closed the break down by now though, expect a furious charge up the Cote de Buisson - once over it there is a descent for the best part of 7kms until they hit the 1km to go mark and the road kicks up again inside the last 700m, making it a tough uphill sprint finish which averages around 6%.

This means we can count out a lot of the 'sprinters' tomorrow, like Greipel, Bouhanni and maybe even Kristoff. Instead, it's a stage for the puncheurs to battle it out up the last 500m. Michael Matthews is the 4/1 favourite and I think he has a rock solid chance of making it two stage wins tomorrow. He didn't quite have the legs today to hang in there when the pace hotted up, but lasted until 6km to go, but he was sensible enough to sit up and save the legs once the elastic snapped. 

Orica GreenEdge were super impressive in leading out Bling on stage 3 and I was kicking myself I hadn't backed him as I had predicted they would do that. I think it could be the same tomorrow, they will take control with 2-3kms to go and release Matthews who should finish it off again. Philippe Gilbert has been very active in this race, going on long breaks, attacking for mountain points etc. He is clearly feeling good and putting in the hard miles for his Ardennes campaign. He should like this finish, but the question is, will he go on the attack early or wait? I can't see him going with the mountain goats over the Cat 1 climb that starts the stage so I think he'll wait for the finish. If he is in the first 5-10 with 700m to go he is sure to attack. At 8/1 he could be an each-way shout. 

John Degenkolb smashed it up the Hatta Dam in Dubai, but since then the only thing he's been smashing are his handlebars in frustration. He hasn't had much luck since then and I think he may find himself out of luck again tomorrow. 

Michal Kwiatkowski could do with every second he can get ahead of the final test up the Col d'Eze so he could be in the mix also. He has a good finishing kick on him as we saw in Strade Bianche last year, and also today at the finish he sprinted well to limit his losses sufficiently to retake the yellow jersey. He is only 8/1 with BetVictor (consistenly seem to have some of the worst prices) but is twice that price with PP. It could be a messy finish though and there is a possibility that he will just look after himself if it gets a bit dangerous. 

Geraint Thomas is 33/1 again, and it's tempting to let profits roll on him. He is clearly one of the strongest in the race and should like this sort of finish too. I wouldn't put it past him to try to go for the stage win to try to get compensation for losing out today, and also as Thomas will probably retake it on Sunday he could get a few days in yellow!

Matti Breschel and Sylvain Chavanel are two who could do well too around the 40/1 mark, Chavanel did well on a finish like this in Andalucia when he placed 3rd for me at 100/1, he seemed to struggle today though on the climb so he might be a little off the pace tomorrow. 

JJ Rojas has been sprinting well and has three top 6 placings to his name already in this race. He won a stage in Qatar on the flat and might come close again tomorrow but I fear it might be too hard a finish for him. Giaccomo Nizzolo landed a great e/w bet the other day at 66/1 when powering up the hill to 3rd place, he is a similar price tomorrow with Ladbrokes and he could well be involved at the finish again. 

What about a break making it? Well, yes, it's possible. All depends on who is in it. There will probably be a pretty decent group of climbers go away on the Col de la République and if they are strong enough as a group and consist of the right teams they could just stay away. If Orica GreenEdge can get some men in the break then they won't have to chase all day, so expect the likes of Michael Albasini, Simon Yates or Simon Clarke to try to get away. Thomas Voeckler I've made a case for already so I won't repeat that, but he is a ridiculous 25/1 now instead of the 150/1 he was the other day.. he'll probably be involved in a break, but that price is ridiculous now. 

Adam Hansen, Thomas de Gendt, Florian Vachon, Jerome Pineau, Nicholas Edet and even Tony Martin - they could all be the types of guys who could be involved in the break of the day at big prices. 

I think though that the likes of OGE (if they miss the break), BMC, Etixx-QS and Giant-Alpecin will do enough to reel in the break to set up a sprint finish. If that happens I think OGE will again take control and deliver Matthews to the win. Gilbert, Nizzolo and Thomas could be close too.

Recommendations: 

2pts win on Michael Matthews at 4/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Philipppe Gilbert at 8/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

0.1pts each-way on Simon Clarke at 200/1 with Betvictor

0.1pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 100/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

Thomas to beat Kwiatkowski - 1pt at 5/2 with Bet365
 

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Stage 6

Stage 6 - Vence to Nice

Saturday March 14th, 180.5km

Less than 200m... After 185kms or so out in a break, a truly valiant effort from my 100/1 poke Thomas de Gendt ended just 200m from the line. It was heart-breaking for him and heart-breaking for me! With 10km to go they had only 30". With 5kms to go it was still around 30". He almost held off a charging peloton for 10kms. And of course Matthews who I had backed win only finished 3rd.. After a great day the day before, this was a disappointing day. Even Thomas who I backed in a match bet with Kwiatkowski at a big 5/2 managed to finish just one spot behind Kwiatkowski... grrrrrr.. On to Stage 6.. 

This is a stage typical for the last day or two of Paris Nice. After leaving Vence, a stone's throw from the suburbs of Nice, the route first loops south and west before doubling back to Vence again. They will have climbed over 300m by the time they pass Vence again and start up the Col de Vence (9.7kms at 6.6%), a nasty Cat 1 ascension which will have some riders under pressure already after just 35kms.

Once over the Col de Vence they start on the longest descent of the race at nearly 40kms down to the valley at the foot of the Côte de Levens (6.2kms at 5.5%). Just 16kms they tackle the Côte de Châteauneuf (5.4kms at 4.5%) followed by a 5km descent down to the town of Contes. They then climb again for more or less 22kms, taking in two climbs along the way - the Cat 2 Côte de Coaraze (5.9kms at 5.6%) and the Cat 1 Col Saint-Roch (9.6kms at 4.5%) which tops out at just over 1000m. 

Again they face another long descent of over 20kms this time before they tackle that last big challenge of the day, the Cat 1 Côte de Peille (6.6kms at 6.8%), the summit of which is just 27kms from the finish, 25kms of that which is downhill. Once at sea-level on the coast there is just over 2kms of flattish roads on the run in to the traditional finish on the Promenade d'Anglais. There is one last little obstacle though with 1500m to go - the road rises up for 500m at around 6% and back down again to a flat sprint for the last 600m. 

This really could be an anything stage - it could be a long breakaway makes it, it could be a late break that goes on the final climb, it could be an attack on the descent off the final climb, or it could come down to a sprint amongst a reduced group of the stronger men. With the Col d'Èze Time Trial the next day Sky and the GC men's teams might be happy to let a break fight it out and just control it in behind, but there could be plenty of guys who will want to do well on this stage as it is effectively the last stage of the race for most. 

The betting is wide open for this and like the stage in Tirreno, it's nearly impossible to pick a winner. Kwiatkowski is the 5/1 favourite with Paddy Power and there's obviously a few good reasons for that. He knows he probably needs more time to hold off Richie Porte who is hot favourite to win the TT the next day, so will be desperate for bonus seconds. He should be able to stay with the leaders based on how well he has been riding, none of the climbs are too tough and the final little kick up with 1km to go could give him a chance to attack and shed a few riders for the finishing kick. If it comes to a small group sprint he could win. 5/1 is too short for me though.

Tony Gallopin looks short also at 12/1, but he is one that I'd rather be on than Kwiatkowski. The descent is perfect for a Gallopin attack and I'd be surprised if he didn't try it. Gilbert, Voeckler, Thomas and Matthews are all 12/1 and again, these are all possible winners depending on how the stage pans out. Thomas could attack late on from the leader group again to force Kwiatkowski on the chase to tire him out, possibly freeing up Porte to attack him at the finish to try to gain some time.

Voeckler will probably have to go early and it will be difficult for the break to make it as lots of teams will want to get something out of this final road stage, so not for me at that stupid price. Gilbert could win a reduced bunch sprint or attack off the front down the descent. De Gendt is only 18/1 for tomorrow, ridiculous price again given he has done 380kms in the attack over the last two days. I think he'll take a day off tomorrow and try to do a good TT up the Col d'Èze.

Chavanel and Luis Leon are 18/1 and again, they could have a say in the finish - either attacking late on the climb and/or on the descent, but again who knows.. Cimolai, Wellens, Slagter, Bakelants, Breschel, Rui Costa - it really could be a free for all tomorrow and I'm really struggling to make a strong case for any of them. If a break does go, a few at big prices that could be involved are Bob Jungels at 100/1, Albasini at 80/1, Dumoulin at 50/1.. 

I think I'll wait until the race is in-play tomorrow and make a call when I see how the race unfolds, but I'll just have a few small bets on the few guys I fancy to be involved at the finish. Gallopin looks in good form and will like this finish. Matti Breschel could hang in there and would be a danger in the final reduced sprint, he looks big at 100/1 and Geraint Thomas could try to shake things up and maybe gain enough time to secure second spot on the podium.   

 

Recommendations: 

Tony Gallopin - 1pt win at 12/1 with Ladbrokes 

Matti Breschel - 0.3pts each-way at 100/1 with BetVictor

Geraint Thomas - 0.5pts each-way at 12/1 with Ladbrokes

 

 

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Stage 7

Stage 7 - Nice to Col d'Èze

Sunday March 15th, 9.5km

What a crazy day today. Chaos almost from the very start and it was hard to keep up with everything that was happening. Kwiatkowski and the E-QS boys attacked and dropped Porte and Thomas. They came back only for them to do it again. Again they came back to them, but this time the E-QS, including Tony Martin blew up and Kwiatkowski was left on his own. The conditions were awful and many riders called it a day. Others, like Tejay Van Garderen suffered badly in the cold - Bob Jungels said he was so cold he couldn't feel his body. 

Up front, Gallopin attacked with over 25kms to go and when Porte and Thomas and Co. pressed on Kwiatkowski was dropped. Then all of a sudden Porte was on his ass after sliding out on a corner. In fairness, he got up instantly and was back on his bike in seconds and quickly caught up with the chasing group. All of a sudden they cut back to see Thomas banging on his left brake lever, he seemingly had gone down too off-camera. Kwiatkowski managed to catch them but out front Gallopin was going further and further away to land the 12/1 recommendation, securing a 10.4 points profit on the stage. 

And so on to the final, and possibly the deciding stage of this year's Paris-Nice, the famous TT up the Col d'Èze. This stage was dropped from the route last year as part of a route redesign which put a lot of riders off riding the race. This year they have brought back the Èze TT, a prologue and a summit finish and the race looks a lot more exciting for it

The last time they did the hill TT, Richie Porte destroyed the field and you'd have to think that we could see a similar outcome this year. The climb is most certainly not the hardest they'll ever tackle, but it is still pretty tough. Officially clocking in at 9.6kms at 4.7%, the final 1600m are actually flat so the 'climb' itself is closer to 6% for 8kms. The bottom of the climb is the hardest so some will find it really difficult to get in to a rhythm. The first 2kms average 8.1% then it eases off a little to 5.8%, then 3.8%, then 3.3% for the next three kilometres. It then kicks up again near the 5.5km time check, with the next 3kms averaging 6.1%. With 8kms gone it flattens out to just a 1.2% gradient for the final 1600m.

As it is just 8kms of climbing at 6%, it's not one for the pure climbers, more the all-rounder who can climb well and time-trial well. Bradley Wiggins only just won this stage in 2012, beating Lieuwe Westra by just 2", but there were big gaps behind them with the 3rd place rider, JC Peraud a further 31" back, and Valverde 52" back in 6th place. In 2013, the last time they rode the TT, Richie Porte won by 23" from Talansky and 52" to Van Garderen in 5th place. As long as Porte can stay within 20" of the leader going in to this stage, he probably wins the overall on this stage.  

That is what I said last week when writing the overall preview, the actual time gap is 36" to Porte, which is a little longer than I thought it might be, but at least it is to Gallopin, a rider I think Porte should have no problem beating. The question is, can he beat him by more than 36"? Last time they raced up this climb in the 2013 running of the race, Porte beat him by 1 minute and 56 seconds. Of course Gallopin has improved a lot since then and he seems to have carried his great 2014 form in to this year judging by his performance this week.

But I think he will really have his work cut out to stay 36" ahead of Porte on this climb. He says "I know Col d'Eze extremely well. I must have climbed it at least 20 times in training this winter. It's not too hard a climb, I know it extremely well." so he is sure to do alright, but Porte is an absolute specialist on this climb and should be capable of putting 40-50" on him, he can'y have improved by 1' 20" since the last time they did it. By my rough calculations he'll have to go 2kmph faster for the 9.6kms than he did last time around, that's a big ask, especially as Porte looks so strong. 

Geraint Thomas continues to prove what I said at the outset that he is going extremely well at the moment.. he was super strong again today, doing an awful lot of work for Porte and still looked strong at the end. He is a good climber, a good TTer and showed on the Queen stage that he is climbing with some real power. He is a big danger to Porte and could wrestle his way back on to the podium again after dropping down to 4th today. 

Michal Kwiatkowski continues to fight but looked pretty exhausted at the end of today's stage. He gambled today with his team and they did a great job - for a while. By the end he was struggling and it took the double crash from the Skybots to let him get back in to this race, he should be 20" back. With rain forecast for all day tomorrow it's going to be cold again. This could affect him if he is running low on energy and I think he might struggle to break in to the top 3 on the stage and can't see him taking the overall. I think 4-5th on the stage for him. 

Fabio Aru took it easy today with GC out of contention and he did a great mountain TT last year in the Giro of course. He has been working on his time trialling over the winter so he will probably be looking for a good test of his progress on this stage. This is no Cima Grappa though and he's better with steeper roads so he might have to settle for 4th to 10th I think.

Tony Martin is a danger based on his power and general time trialling ability, and because the gradients aren't all that steep. He had a hard day today though looking after Michal and looked exhausted when rolling back after he could give no more. He should set a good early time though but I think the later starters will push him down.

Tejay Van Garderen is another who really suffered today and all chance of a podium place is now gone, I'm glad I avoided him after all for the GC.. He smashes it up the Vail climb in the US Pro Tour and will be looking to salvage something from a disappointing race for him, so I think he could go well. It all depends just how much that stage took out of him today as he was freezing - that can really sap the strength and stiffen the body. He is capable of creeping in to the top 5 though, possibly even the first three. 

Simon Spilak rode really well today to reward his each-way backers who saw the weather forecast was going to be cold and wet. He actually celebrated crossing the line, he confessed afterwards he was just so focused on staying away from the chasing pack with Porte that he didn't realise there was someone up the road.. He can climb, he's not the worst time triallist in the world and if the rain and the cold comes again as forecast, he will be in his element. He is just not in the same league as the top guys though so I think he'll struggle to get in the top 5. Chavanel could go well on this climb too, but 5th to 10th at best for me too. 

I don't really see any others getting in to this really, I think it will finish Porte, Thomas, Van Garderen, Kwiatkowski, Gallopin, Aru, Spilak, Chavanel, Martin and De Gendt in that order! There's no value in backing Porte at 4/7 but Thomas offers a little bit of value at 10/1 to podium. I've backed him a lot this week and he's done ok so far, hopefully he can finish off the week well with a podium on the stage and the overall. 

Recommendations: 

1pt each-way at 10/1 on Geraint Thomas with Ladbrokes

MatchBets:

Aru to beat Majka - 2pts at 8/11

Thomas to beat Kwiatkowski and Van Garderen to beat Talansky - 2pts on the double at 5/4 with Bet365

 

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Col d'Èze