- Details
- Published on Monday, 16 February 2015 00:03
Tuesday February 17th to Sunday February 22nd
After a training spin around Dubai, Vincenzo Nibali heads to the Tour of Oman looking to lay down a marker for the start of the season. With two-time winner and defending champion, Chris Froome, heading to the Vuelta a Andalucia this year, it will be interesting to see who steps up to challenge Nibali, with the race likely to come down to the ascent of Green Mountain again on stage four.
Alberto Contador may be joining Froome in Andalucia, but Nibali won't have it all his own way though with some quality riders still heading out to Oman to take him on. Thibaut Pinot, 3rd in the Tour de France last year, Rafal Majka, Tour of Poland and dual Tour de France Stage winner in '14 and Alejandro Valverde are all going to be there to take on the TDF champion. Nairo Quintana was scheduled to start his European season in Andalucia but misses it as he's recovering from a crash in the Colombian national road race.
We will also see the likes of Tejay Van Garderen (2nd in 2014), Joaquim Rodriguez (winner on Green Mountain in 2013), Leopold Konig, in his first team leader role for new team Sky, Roman Kreuziger, Allesandro De Marchi and Warren Barguil, so there is plenty of quality on show. There are 18 teams of 8 riders again so there is plenty of strength in depth in some of the bigger teams, with the likes of Astana, BMC and Tinkoff-Saxo posessing more than one GC contender depending on how the race pans out.
As it's the third part of the middle eastern trilogy a lot of riders who have been competing in either Dubai or Qatar are lining up again here to complete their warm-weather season openers before heading back to the cold of Europe. But many others like Barguil and Pinot are making their season debuts, so it'll be interesting to see how they go against those with some race miles in their legs.
2014 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Froome | Team Sky | 22h 02min 26s |
| 2 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC | at 26s |
| 3 | Rigoberto Uran | Omega Pharma Quick-Step | at 31s |
The Route
I said above that this race is likely to come down to the climb up to Green Mountain on stage four, as it did in 2014 when Chris Froome put down the hammer and just rode away from them all. But don't underestimate some of the other stages for their race-shaping potential. Stage 1 does look very straight-forward and will probably end in a sprint. Stage 2 may look like it may end in a sprint, but the last 75kms are along the coast and the coastal winds could cause some problems. Add in two sharp little climbs inside the last 25kms, the summit of the last coming just 4kms from the finish, and there could be a shake-up sooner than some expected.
Stage 3 looks a lot more straightforward though, with a figure of eight circuit that heads inland but finishes on the coast at the Al Mussanah Sports City for a likely sprint finish. Stage 4 though is the one that should see things blown apart as they head out in to the hills and up to Jabal Al Akhdar, or Green Mountain as it is known. It's a tough climb - 5.7kms at 10.7%, with the last 1.5kms averaging 13.5%, and a very different type of climb to the Alpine or Pyreneen types of climbs. The road is wide and exposed, it's like racing up a dual carriageway that averages 13%! There are very few tactics involved in a climb like this, it's just put the power down as hard as possible for as long as possible and just burn everyone else off your wheel.
Stage 5 could potentially be a far more exciting stage with the four-time ascension of the climb of the Bousher Al Amerat likely to shake things up dramatically again. Stage 6 is the usual, end of stage race sprint so the GC is unlikely to change.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Bayt Al Naman Castle to Al Wutayyah
Tuesday, February 17th, 161km
A relatively easy start to the race with a 161km spin from Bayt al Naman Castle that heads inland for a little while to take in two intermediate sprints and then heads back towards the coast and the finish at Al Wutayyah near Muscat. Watch out for the finish though, it does kick up to the line in the last 400m, meaning it may not be the pure sprinters we see to the fore.
The betting is now up for Stage 1 and Kristoff is understandably favourite at 7/2 but it's pretty tight at the top of the betting. We all know by now the form Kristoff is in, but I did say that he might have been getting tired towards the end of Qatar and was indeed nowhere to be seen in the last sprint. Mattheo Pelucchi is in the form of his life it seems judging by his super back-to-back victories in Majorca, where he took some notable scalps.
Andrea Guardini and Peter Sagan are next at around 6/1 and they have both showed good legs this year also - Sagan with five top 4 finishes and Guardini with four, but they have not managed to take a win yet. The uphill finish should suit Sagan more than Guardini so I'd side with him out of those two. Bouhanni and Démare didn't get to have a proper head-to-head yet but Bouhanni does seem to be getting closer of late whereas Démare has gone backwards since his 3rd on stage 1 in Qatar.
There is no more of the 50/1 I got on Bennett when he won last week, he's just 12/1 now, he's a contender now in any stage like this you'd have to think and confidence in the team will be sky high. They have Konrad for the GC but I think they will fancy their chances in a number of these stages, starting with the first one. Sam likes an uphill finish and should be right in the mix.
Matty Goss, Adam Blythe and Tom Boonen could all be involved in the finish but I'm leaning towards Matteo Pelucchi to continue his winning form with a powerhouse sprint. Alexander Kristoff and Bennett could complete the top 3.
Recommendations:
1pt win on Matteo Pelucchi at 4/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 12/1 with various.
Matchbets
2pts win on Pelucchi to beat Guardini at 8/11
1.5pts win on Bennett to beat Modolo at 4/7
1pt double on the above two at 1.7/1 all with Bet365
Route Map
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Al Hazm Castle to Al Bustan
Wednesday, February 18th, 195km
This could be a really interesting stage - it starts relatively calmy with a drag up to Al Awabi and the first sprint at Tawi Al Sayh. They descend more or less for the next 100kms until they hit the coast where they hit the second intermediate sprint at The Wave. With 25kms to go they hit the climb of Al Hamriyah which rises 100m. Then after a 10km descent they start the climb of Al Jissah, which tops out around 220m and then its a fast and twisty 4km descent down to the finish in Al Bustan. The last kilometre is flat with a small kick up for the last 100m. It's likely that we'll get a reduced peloton of around 30 guys or less coming to the finish, possibly even a solo rider after that last climb and descent so close to the finish.
The climb of Al Jissah should get rid of most of the pure sprinters - 1.4kms at 9% is sure to hurt a lot of legs and string things out a lot. And it's only 5.5kms to the finish in Al Bustan from the top, 4kms of which are downhill so there could well be a solo winner or a small break get away to fight it out. The kinds of guys who are on my shortlist are Peter Sagan of course, Greg Van Avermaet, and possibly Valverde, Rui Costa and Dani Moreno.
Sagan looks the most likely winner and might finally get his head in front after a whole pile of close shaves. That late climb and the charge down to the finish suits his style perfectly and it was how he won a stage here last year by being aggressive and unpredictable when others are less so. He will probably look to split it up and go solo or he probably won't mind if he takes a few with him as he will beat most non-sprinters on the line and the 11/4 with Ladbrokes and Skybet looks tempting.
Greg Van Avermaet is one of my favourite riders and I'd reallylike to see him step up this year and win some big races. He is going really well already this year - a great 3rd place on stage 2 set him up for a very respectable 5th place in Qatar and he was prominent quite a lot during the week. This sort of finish is perfect for this classics rider - he will attack up this hill and has the strength and condition now to be able to drive it home down the descent to the finish. He will probably have to do it solo or at least without the likes of Sagan or Kristoff and the likes though or he probably will be outsprinted.
There is a slim chance that some of the sprinters might make it - Sam Bennett is very capable of getting over these sorts of climbs, just remember his stage win in the Tour of Britain in 2013 when he got over Caerphilly Mountain with the likes of Quintana and Wiggins and then easily outsprinted them at the finish. And he almost won the stage where he was mugged on the line by Ciolek up the hill to Kendal. If he can be one of the select group that gets over, he will have a great chance of the win. He has slimmed down a lot and is clearly clicking in to gear too so he could be in with a shout. Other sprinters that might make it are Kristoff, Boonen and Pelucchi..
JJ Rojas, Eddie Boasson Hagen, Colbrelli, Sutton, Valverde - these are all the kinds of guys who can get involved also, but picking one of them is almost impossible. I'm going to stick with Sagan as the winner with Van Avermaet in the top 3 and a small saver on Bennett just in case.
We were unlucky today with Pelucchi, he finished 3rd, but we had him win only.. Guardini winning bust the match bets though, although Bennett did save us a little by beating Modolo. Work to do now to get back on track..
Recommendations:
1pt win on Peter Sagan at 11/4 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 15/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 28/1 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Finish
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Al Mussanah Sports City to Al Mussanah Sports City
Thursday February 19th, 159km
An interesting stage today, came very close to a nice winner with Greg Van Avermaet nearly doing the business, losing out by a wheel to Cancellara and Valverde. Stil, the each-way at 15/1 paid out for 3rd place. It was also a good day for the GC bet on Van Garderen, he looked good and now sits in 9th place. What a win by Cancellara though, showed that he cannot be ruled out just yet for any of the upcoming Classics, he had a disappointing Sagan well and truly in his pocket again. Nibali and Pinot suffered today though, Nibali earlier than I thought he might, and it's looking good at the moment for the TVG match bet.
Stage 3 looks to be the most boring stage on first glance, and even though there are two little lumps to get over they are nothing to worry about really and the stage should end in a sprint. The only thing that could disrupt the sprinters having it all their own way is the fact the course changes direction all day long, with lots of opportunities for headwinds, tailwinds and more importantly, cross winds.
So it's going to be another sprint then, but who's going to win this time? It's all very tight of course with nothing really separating Kristoff, Guardini, Pelucchi and Bouhanni. Mr 5th place, Sagan is just after them and then Demare, Boonen and Bennett. With Green Mountain to come the next day we may see some riders take it a bit more conservatively tommorrow and so I think it is likely to come to a bunch sprint.
Kristoff struggled today, and may be tiring after a hard couple of weeks. Guardini seems to be getting better as the weeks go on and could well be in the top 3 again tomorrow. Pelucchi was unlucky on Stage 1, he should be involved again. Nacer Bouhanni seems to be getting closer though and may be starting to click in to gear. At 7/1 he is twice the price of Kristoff and Guardini, are they twice as likely to win? I don't think so. Demare and Bennett could well be involved in the top 5 battle and if Etixx-Quick Step decide to try to split it in the wind then it may help Boonen to a win.
It's getting to a point of sticking a pin in a list a little bit though with lots of guys flying at the moment, some getting better and some maybe tiring. I think Bouhanni and Cofidis might finally get it right though and he is worth a shot. The 4/1 with BetVictor offers a tempting each-way shot, it's likely that he will make it in the top 3 again.
Valverde is now the evens favourite and he does look in a commanding position given the ride he put in today. Majka, Van Garderen and co are not far behind him though so it most definitely is still wide open as far as I'm concerned. I say wide open, but realistically it should be one of the top 19 given the lead they hold on everyone else. Louis Meintjes rode very well today and I'm very encouraged by his ride. He is now in to 40/1 and that is still a decent price I think. Van Garderen is now as short as 5/1 but there is 7/1 with Bet365.
There is another rider who has come on my radar at a huge price but the bookie offering him are win only for the overall which is disappointing.. I'll be mentioning him for stage 4 though!
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 7/1 with Skybet
1pt each-way on Andrea Guardini at 4/1 with BetVictor
Nacer Bouhanni to beat Modolo (4/9) and Kristoff to beat Sagan (2/5) - 2pts on the double at evens.
Route Map
Profile
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Sultan Qaboos Grande Mosque to Jabal Al Akhdar (Green Mountain)
Friday February 20th, 189km
A scratch day today with Guardini unlucky for us in 2nd, beaten by an Alexander Kristoff who just keeps impressing as the weeks go by. The 4/1 each-way meant we got our stake back, but Bouhanni was unlucky, just missing out on getting us an each-way payout finishing a very close 4th. The match bet double won though so we ended up flat on the day. The GC has stayed the same, so still all to play for.
Stage 4 is likely to be the decider of the race, or at least the decider of the top 5 or 10 who may still battle it out on stage 5. Ths stage starts right on the coast at the Sultan Qaboos Grande Mosque and they start climbing gently right from the start. They rise 600m in the first 80kms and then hit the plateau which they ride along for more or less 100kms until they reach the base of the Green Mountain climb after 183kms.
The climb is 5.7kms at 10.5% and is pretty steady and relentless the whole way up. It starts with 2kms at 10%, then a kilometre at 12%, then it eases back to 6% for a kilometre, before kicking up again to average 13.5% for the last 1.7kms.
Last year, Sky played a perfect 1-2 with Sergio Henao attacking first on the climb, forcing all the others to chase, and it was TVG and Uran who closed him down eventually, only for Froome to launch a trademark explosive attack and left them for dead as you can see in the video below. Tejay Van Garderen chased him home 22" back and then came Uran, who was so exhausted he had to be held up by none other than Eddy Merckx after the finish line!
There is no Froome this year of course, but we may see the likes of Deignan or Lopez soften them up for Konig to attack, but a Froome he most certainly is not! It should be a stage that we see Van Garderen, Nibali, Valverde, Rodriguez, Majka, Kreuziger, Pinot, Moreno, De Marchi, Barguil and Rui Costa show us how their respective pre-season training has gone.
Of course since I wrote that above a few days ago we have seen Rodriguez and Pinot are not in the best of condition (as I sort of expected..) but Valverde, Van Garderen and Majka are looking good. It should be a real battle tomorrow, it's a real shame that it will not be broadcast live, I'd love to be watching it as I have the day off!
Valverde is best priced 2/1 favourite for the stage and as short as 6/4. Of course he looks in great shape as usual and almost won the second stage, only just being beaten by Cancellara. You'd have to think that Movistar will look after him as long as they can, but as I said in my original preview below, I don't think they have the best team over there. A case in point was that Valverde was the only one in that front group on Stage 2, the next best was Lobato at 46" and then Ventoso and Amador who were 2'46" back. I just don't fancy Valverde at that sort of price tomorrow.
Van Garderen as I have said before is my fancy to win this race overall, and if so, he has to make his move tomorrow. He has previous form here and I think he should go very well tomorrow. He is 10/1 for the stage with Ladbrokes, which looks interesting. He is going well and has a very strong team with him - there were 4 of them in the leading group on stage 2..
Majka is second favourite at 7/2 and you'd have to think he'll be right up there, especially as he went well on the climb on stage 2, showing he has some zip in the legs. He tended to blow hot and cold last year a little and didn't start the season very well, so it'll be interesting to see how he goes this year on such a tough climb. 7/2 looks short as well to take a punt on his form.
Dani Moreno went well on Stage 2, finishing in 8th. He did ok, but not great on Green Mountain last year though, finishing in 14th place, 1'23" behind Froome , after working for Rodriguez. He is 9/1 for tomorrow but I'm not sure he will be in the top 3.
After their performance on Stage 2 I can't have Nibali, Pinot or Costa. Two guys who I am really looking forward to seeing how they go tomorrow though are the MTN Qhubeka duo of Louis Meintjes and Jacques Janse Van Rensberg. Meintjes is in great form and finished with the leaders after lighting it up for a while too on Stage 2. He should like this climb and I am happy with my 80/1 on him for the overall, he could well move on to the podium tomorrow with a big ride.
Janse Van Rensberg is also flying at the moment - he recently won the South African road race championships and took 3rd in the African championships. He also went well on stage 2 and has been saying how much he is looking forward to Green Mountain for the last couple of days. He thinks a podium place is a possibility, and if he wants to deliver on that he will need to put in a big ride tomorrow. At 66/1 he is worth a small bet just in case he follows through with his fighting talk! Meintjes is also maybe worth a bet at 33/1, but as I have the overal bet running on him I think I'll leave it at that in case he has a bad day.
Julian Arredondo finished well on Stage 2, taking 6th place in the sprint despite not really being a sprinting type at all. This is much more his terrain and he goes well at the start of the season, judging by his performance in San Luis last year. He's not a great price at 8/1 but could well go long and try to hold them all off, he is capable of it. I expect a big performance from Van Garderen also, I'm hoping for a top 3 finish at worst...
Recommendations:
1pt each-way at 8/1 on Julian Arredondo at 8/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way at 66/1 on Jacques Janse Van Rensberg with Bet365
Match Bets:
Greg Van Avermaet to beat Cancellara 1pt at 8/11
Van Garderen to beat Majka - 2pts at 6/4
Louis Meintjes to beat Fuglsang - 2pts at 11/10
Patrick Konrad to beat Valls - 1pt at 4/6
Route Map
Profile
Green Mountain Climb
Stage 5
Stage 5 - Al Sawadi Beach to Ministry of Housing
Saturday February 21st, 152km
The race was blown apart on Green Mountain, as expected with Rafael Valls pulling off a massive surprise to win from Tejay Van Garderen. Valls was something like 150/1 to win today and 200/1 to win the overall, so well done to the guys who picked him out, pretty inspired picking! There's only 9" back to TVG though so it is still all to play for. Hopefully the podium place is secure for TVG though at the very least, would be nice to see him take the lead back tomorrow with a big ride..
Almost finished flat today with Meintjes and Van Garderen doing the business at odds against in the match bets but Van Avermaet possibly saving himself to work tomorrow and Valls busting the match bet against Konrad. Pretty close with Van Rensberg who finished in 7th and Meintjes is only 3 places off the podium.. probably a leap too far though at this point.
Stage 5 then and for 85kms it is a flat run along the coast until they reach the Sultan Qaboos Grande Mosque and then they start on 4 laps of the closing circuit which sees them tackle the climb of Bousher Al Amerat 4 times - twice from each side as they do a loop over the climb twice. Once over the climb for the last time there is a very fast 7km descent and then a 5km run to the finish.
The stage last year saw Froome try to blow things apart and only Uran was able to stay with him, but on the descent Peter Sagan used his super descending skills to bridge across to them and they were joined by Nibali. Froome then was distanced by this trio on the descent and then Sagan made a pretty audacious move to bunny-hop the central divide in the road to get a better line in to the finish (you can see it at 2'.20" in the video below). He didn't really need that advantage as he was easily the quicker of the three on the line. The peloton more or less caught them on the line, with Sagan's advantage given at just 2".
This year this stage comes after the climb to Green Mountain, whereas last year it was before so the tactics and state of the GC could be very different. Last year Froome just had to stay close enough to who ever won, knowing he had good legs for Green Mountain the next day. This year, with gaps of just 9" and 19" back to 2nd and 3rd then it should be a lot more agressive. Van Garderen and Valverde will have to attack and shake off Valls if they want to win this race. I can see Movistar and BMC being super aggressive and will do their utmost to shake off Lampre-Merida and Valls.
Really hard to say how the stage is going to go but I'll try to take a look at the prices later on when they are out and take a view then. Rui Costa rode well today and might like this course. We know Sagan likes this stage and he is sure to be involved too. Van Avermaet should be involved too normally but he is bound to be asked to do TVG babysitting duties tomorrow so may have to sacrifice personal ambitions.
I'll try to post some picks later but I can't guarantee it as I plan on being in a pub until quite late.... :-)
Route Map
Profile
Finish
Stage 6
Stage 6 - Oman Air to Muttrah Promenade
Sunday February 22nd, 133km
The final stage from Oman Air to the Matrah Corniche should end in a bunch sprint but the change in direction from west to east to east to west inside the last 40kms and the climb of Al Jissah with 26kms to go could shake things up. It could be one last chance to try to take the GC title off the leader if there's not much in it.
It's the usual suspects again at the top of the betting with Kristoff as short as 6/4 with BetVictor, once again being the worst for prices out there. Ladbrokes are far better at 5/2.. is it worth taking? His competition will come from the same guys he's been beating regularly recently - Guardini who is 5/1, Sagan at 8/1, Pelucchi and Bouhanni at 10/1 and upwards for the rest. There are a couple of little hills to contend with, the climb of Al Hamriyah and the Climb of Al Jissah, the second coming with just 27kms to go, but they're unlikely to prevent the stage from ending in a bunch sprint.
Tejay Van Garderen was annoyed with the abandonment of today's stage as they wanted to not only try to get the time back on Valls, but they also wanted to get in some good training for the classics to come. It may be that BMC take it out on the peloton tomorrow and try to make it as hard as possible to try to see what happens. There are bonus seconds out on the course, just before and just after the Al Jissah climb, so there is a possibility Van Garderen could nick back some seconds, but unless they can get him away in a break before the finish, or split the peloton and leave Valls behind he is unlikely to move on to the top step of the podium.
The last 3kms are dead flat and straight so it should be a flat out sprint again. Kristoff is short, but he is in the form of his life at the moment, and has beaten all these guys several times already. 5/2 is a little tight though maybe, he is due a bad luck day again, like in the final stage of Qatar when he and his team went missing and Sam Bennett took the win. With a fast, flat and wide sprint here again we should see Bora Argon and Bennett involved in the scrap at the finish again and he is a backable price again I think at 25/1.
Bouhanni is getting closer and closer and 10/1 with Ladbrokes makes some appeal but I'm not sure I want to trust him again to see him finish 4th.. Guardini has been supremely consistent of late and the 5/1 with Bet365 is attractive like a few days ago as a 'bet to nothing', in that he has a high probability of finishing in the top 3 to give a small profit, but with a good chance of the win also.
Matteo Pelucchi should be in the picture again you'd think, the 10/1 with Bet365 is worth taking if you're a fan of his, he could well podium. Boonen, Demare, Arndt, Modolo, Blythe and Rojas should be close but not for me tomorrow. So, it's hard to look past Kristoff, but let's try some of the other guys - it could be like Qatar where we see Guardini and Bennett catch him out and they are worth a shot each-way.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 25/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Andrea Guardini at 5/1 with Bet365
Kristoff to beat Sagan, Guardini to beat Pelucchi and Bouhanni to beat Modolo, 2pts on the treble at 9/4 with Bet365.
Route Map
Profile
Finish
Overall Contenders and Favourites
Alejandro Valverde was priced up as the 9/4 favourite in early prices from BetVictor - opened 3/1 then went 4/1, then 5/2, then 9/4 so someone must have had a pound or two on him. He has now settled down around 2/1 but is as short as 7/4 with Ladbrokes.
You can see why he would be favourite with the course that they face - stages 2, 4 and 5 should be to his liking. He has of course got some good miles in to the legs already with a win and a 2nd in Majorca and 2nd on that stage up to the Hatta Dam behind Degenkolb in Dubai. I think he was unlucky on that stage in that Movistar were caught on the hop by Degenkolb, I don't think they expected him to do that at all (like us all) and Piti had too far to make up once he got going.
This is the first time he has gone to Oman though and the first time he will face the power climb of Green Mountain. He does go well early in the season, as can be seen from his destruction of the field in the Ruta del Sol last year, particularly on the punchy little climbs. This is a very different type of climb altogether though and I wonder how he'll cope with it. He is a renowned wheelsucker, so if someone makes a jump and attacks and the other favourites let Valverde do the chasing, you wonder if he will come through and do it..
He has a strong looking squad with him but they're not the best climbers in the squad and he may find himself isolated and open to attacks. One very important point to bear in mind is that Valverde felt sick on the last day in Qatar and didn't start the stage. There were rumours earlier that he may not be starting the race, but there doesn't seem to be any evidence to back that up and Movistar have said on their website that he is riding and "has a shot at the top places". Since I wrote this earlier I have had a conversation with Rob Hatch, who is out there for Eurosport and he said that "He looked fine to me today & said he wanted to achieve something here".
That will be 4 days from pulling out of Qatar 'sick' until he starts in Oman, which isn't a lot of time at all and he may not be 100% yet, which is probably why the rumours started earlier..
Vincenzo Nibali is second favourite at 5/2, so not a lot of difference between them at all.. Nibali has of course been here before, winning on Green Mountain in 2012 and finishing a ridiculous 1" behind Peter Velits in the GC the same year. He didn't start 2014 very well, with the Tour goal in mind, but this year he is pushing himself harder to be fitter for races earlier in the season. He rode a good training race in Qatar, featuring at the front of the peloton quite a lot in the service of Andrea Guardini. He put in some big turns on the flatter parts, but interestingly, when it came to the Hatta Dam, he literally hit a wall and crawled up to the finish, dripping in sweat.
It will be interesting to see now how he goes on the long and steep climb of Green Mountain this year, will he be leading and attacking, or will he be hanging on for dear life for as long as possible.. Stage 2 might give us an early indication of his form as there could be a GC battle already over the closing climbs of that stage.
There was a very interesting quote from him today though from the press conference. He said that "I don't think I'll have the level to win. Valverde for example has had a lot more racing days than I've had and I'll also keep an eye out for riders like Rodriguez and Majka. If I feel I don't have the level maybe I'll just focus on a stage win, like the one with the climbs to Boucher Al Amerat."
So we have the top two favourites, one of which may be sick, or may have been bluffing and just couldn't be arsed riding the last stage in Qatar, and the other who has more or less thrown in the towel before the race starts! Mind games or important warning signs?!
Next up we have Tejay Van Garderen who opened around the 6/1 mark. I was hoping he might have been bigger with Valverde and Nibali here, and indeed he has now opened at 10/1 with several others. Van Garderen interests me because of two performances. Firstly, of course because he was closest to Chris Froome over the Green Mountain last year and was clearly the best of the rest. He powered up at a pretty decent pace and eventually burned Uran off his wheel. He seemed to be reasonably fresh at the top too climbing out of the saddle, compared to Uran who barely made it across the line.
The other big performance that I was impressed with from this stage's point of view was his victory on Monarch Mountain in the USA Pro Challenge last year. It's quite a similar climb with big wide open roads with nowhere to hide, although not as steep, it is longer. He looked very strong on that and attacked with a lot of power at the 1km to go banner and only Rafal Majka could stay with him. After powering away from everone else (they put 20" in to the next rider in 1km) he still had enough to easily outsprint Majka. If Valverde and Nibali watch each other, or if they are not at the top of their game he could ride away like that. He also probably has the best team in the race too with Van Avermaet, Velits, De Marchi, Teuns, Caruso and Schar.
Joaquim Rodriguez is right there at the top of the betting also around 5/1 but I'm not interested. He did win the Green Mountain stage in 2012 but I think that's a very Purito than what is going to turn up there this week. I can't see him ride away from this pack like he did back then. He might have fun on stage 5 but he will lack the finish to take anything out of that stage too.
Rafal Majka is an interesting one - Saxo come here with Kreuziger and Sagan also in their lineup, so what will their ambitions be? Stage wins for Sagan? Kreuziger as team leader? Majka was quite slow to get going last year, not showing any real strong form until the end of March at the Criterium International. Same the year before where it was half way through the Giro before he started showing something. He does like these sort of grinding, power climbs though and may go well on it. I'm not sure I want to back him at just 12/1 though with those doubts.
Leopold Konig will be interesting to watch in his first outing in the Sky squad, he won't get many opportunities to be team leader there. He has started the year well with an excellent 3rd place in the Tramuntana in Majorca, but he was a full 1'33" behind Valverde. He took 5th in the other race in Majorca he took part in but again was beaten by Valverde. It's a reasonably good squad with him and Philip Deignan should like this sort of climb, should remind him of his days a few years back when racing on the hot, wide open roads of the US.
Rui Costa, Dani Moreno, Julian Arredondo, Poels and Fuglsang should all be prominent on different stages and could be involved on the Green Mountain decider, but I'm not sure they're good enough. Thibaut Pinot says he is in good shape and he is happy with his form but that he won't know for sure until he starts racing against the other guys. He should like this climb but might find it a bit hard for his first hard race this year. He prefers the climbs to be a bit longer and not as steep though I think so he might not be able to stay with the likes of Van Garderen, Nibail or Valverde if they are in good form.
Outsiders to keep an eye on? Greg Van Avermaet is flying at the moment and will like some of these stages with the tough finishes. He will struggle a little on Green Mountain, but if he can limit his losses there he could gain time back the next day with a good break. It just depends on what team orders are and how TVG is going.
Same could be said about Damiano Caruso - he looks big at 150/1 but he will probably have to work for the two top guys in the squad. If he was in another team I'd be backing him at that price. Louis Meintjes has started the year well with a dominant 2'26" win in the African Continental Championships. He also took 4th place in the African Continental Time Trial, 9th in the SA road nationals and 3rd in the TT, so is obviously in good condition for this time of year. At 80/1 he could be worth a small each-way bet.
Matthias Frank is another who could go well here, he leads the IAM squad who are after starting the season really well with good wins for Haussler and Pelucchi. The one thing holding me back is the poor showing in Majorca, he finished 62nd, 106th and 149th in the three races.
So who wins then? Valverde has a really good chance of course, he is a class act without question. Nibali in his prime should destroy most of these guys on Green Mountain, but even he admits that he is not anywhere near his prime. Van Garderen to me looks like the one that can take advantage of any weakness in those two and should be one of the first home on Green Mountain. He should be canny enough and protected enough on the other stages to not lose time and could well win this race I believe. Louis Meintjes and Leopold Konig could make a podium spot at 80/1 and 16/1.
Recommendations
1pt each-way on Tejay Van Garderen at 10/1 with William Hill
0.3pts each way on Louis Meintjes at 80/1 with Bet365
0.4pts each-way on Leopold Konig at 16/1 with Bet365
Matchbets:
2pts on Van Garderen to beat Nibali at evens with Bet365
