Tour Down Under - Stage 4

Unley to Victor Harbour, 148.5km

791/1!! 791/1 - that's the combined accumlated odds of picking the winners of the first 3 stages of the Tour Down Under. Cadel Evans acted out the script to perfection to solo away from his rivals on Corkscrew Hill to take a fantastic victory and complete my hat-trick at a generous 10/1.

cadel

Add that to Ulissi in Stage 2 at 8/1 and Gerrans in Stage 1 at 7/1 and if I had rolled the winnings from a £10 stake from the outset I would now be sitting on £7910. Alas, I don't go all-in like that, but I'm happy with my profit for the week to date.

Ulissi is still most definitely in the hunt for a top 3 and Rory Sutherland is doing his best to help us land the 200/1 by moving in to 9th place. Of course Cadel's impressive victory has thrust him in to a healthy looking advantage and 1/3 favouritism, possibly busting the Gerrans for overall victory bet, but his win at 10/1 was an effective hedge you could say to soften that blow. I wouldn't rule Gerrans out of it completely though, he loves Willunga Hill.

The Route

Stage 4 - Unley to Victor Harbour, 148.5km

Stage 4 should see the sprinters duel it out again, with only the early climb up Corkscrew Hill to really trouble them, and it comes so early it's not even worth mentioning almost! The scenery should be spectacular even if the racing may not be, an early break will probably go in the first 10km and they'll be reeled in with 5-10km to go. With a bonus sprint coming 40km from the finish they may even look to drag them back before that, depending on the gap - with Gerrans chasing time now he may get his OGE team to chase and control the race so he can go for time here and let the sprinters go for the stage win. It should then end in a big bunch gallop where you have to favour the likes of Kittel, Greipel or Viviani.

Stage 4 Map

tdu st4 map

Stage 4 Profile and Last 3Kms

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Contenders and Favourites

In the only out-and-out 'sprint' of the TDU so far on Tuesday's Stage 1, Simon Gerrans played it brilliantly to come from behind André Greipel who was battling a slope and a strong headwind. Even though many thought Greipel would not be in the mix because of Menglers Hill, I had faith and landed a nice 14/1 each way bet, and he showed that he is in very good shape at the moment too.

Tomorrow should give the sprinters their first proper sprint finish, as although the course is rolling and lumpy in parts it really is a day that will almost certainly finish in a big bunch gallop. Kittel was supreme in the People's Choice Classic, coming from a mile behind to pass Greipel and take the race. I think he is going to be the sprinter to fear this year and Cavendish will relenquish his crown as the world's best sprinter to the big German.

Greipel has the leadout train and the individual power to be right in the mix so he has to be fancied for the stage, and looking at the bookies prices it was a coin toss between him and Kittel when prices opened. BetVictor opened with Kittel 10/11 and Greipel 11/10 and Paddy Power were 11/10 on Kittel. As I think it is pretty much going to be a match bet between them I was all over the 11/10 on Kittel. Their prices have moved around a little since but you can still get 11/10 with Paddy Power for now.

As for the other spot on the podium, well that's a lot harder to call. Caleb Ewan and Matt Goss are 3rd and 4th in the betting around 10/1 but I'm not interested in either of them at those prices. Elia Viviani has had a poor race so far and needs to get involved in the finish and try to land a top 6 place to try to rescue something from a poor tour so far for Cannondale, Cameron Wurf in 34th place their highest placed rider. He might be worth small stakes each-way at 14/1 with BetVictor

Steele von Hoff was impressive on Tuesday's stage 1 finish too, hanging in there on Menglers and sprinting to 3rd place - I think he will be a stronger candidate for the 3rd spot, but his lead-out train will be one man less as Nathan Haas will be protecting himself for the GC battle ahead as he lies in an impressive 4th place.

Watch twitter later for price updates and match bet suggestions - @cyclingbetting is my handle.

Recommendations:

3pts win Marcel Kittel with Paddy Power

0.5pt each-way on Van Hoff at 16/1 with BetVictor and 0.25 pts at 33/1 with Bet365

0.5pt each-way on Elia Viviani at 14/1 with BetVictor

Fun bet - a win double on Quintana for today's stage of San Luis and Kittel for stage 4 of TDU - at the time of writing no bookie was offering both races yet, some are still to price up TDU.. If I can get on Quintana at 6/4 and Kittel at evens it pays 4/1.