Tour Down Under  - Stage 3 

Norwood to Campbelltown, 145km

A brilliant surge to the line by Diego Ulissi had me shouting at the TV this morning at some ungodly hour like 4.30am. Not only did he land the 8/1 each-way bets I recommended, he also puts himself firmly in with a shout of winning this race and landing the 20/1 I recommended pre-race. 

And to cap it off, I landed the 1-2 again with Gerrans taking 2nd, but as I had recommended him as a win-only bet it means nothing to the bank balance, only satisfaction in doing a double 1-2 in the first two stages! Not forgetting an honourable mention for my 66/1 shot Will Clarke who did indeed attack early and spend most of the day out in a break, but was unfortunately reeled in with about 20km to go.

I did tweet last night that I had placed a match bet on Bennett to beat Kittel, Goss to beat Ewan, Ulissi to beat Porte and Gavazzi to beat Roelandts - the four-timer paid 9/1. Bennet was a cracking bet at 4/5 and Ulissi and Gavazzi did the business, but unfortunately Goss finished a few places below Ewan to spoil it.     

The Route

Stage 3 - Norwood to Campbelltown, 145km

Stage 3 takes in some of the areas passed through on stage 2 as the riders head a little bit further north-east this time past the Chain of Ponds. The route is a rolling course but it is pretty flat, so it should set it up nicely for the charge for the KOM on Corkscrew Road that comes with less than 7.5km to go!

It is short and sharp and there should be some splits that may not get back together seeing as there will be a super-fast descent to the finish in Campbelltown. It's the stage that Geraint Thomas won brilliantly last year (see video below) and he is sure to give it another go this year. Simon Gerrans will love this finish again and he could really put himself out of sight if he wins the stage and takes the time bonuses here. He has said he fancies this climb of Corkscrew Hill and is looking forward to this and the Willunga Hill stage.

We can also expect the likes of Evans, Porte, Moreno, Bakelants and Ulissi having a go. If the GC guys aren't 100%, or get caught out in a bad position it could cost them significant time on the GC. This was where Slagter gained time last year on his way to overall victory. The last 3kms are straight and fast, downhill all the way to the line. A canny sprinter can do as Thomas did last year and win from a reduced group, that could well be Gerrans again!

Tour Down Under 2013 - jump to about 1:08:00 to watch the key action up Corkscrew Hill

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Contenders and Favourites

As mentioned already above, Simon Gerrans looks like he will take all the beating in this stage, he can get away with a small group on Corkscrew and may be just too fast for his rivals at the finish. But at 2/1 I think that is a bit too short to back for me today. This is a day that I think Evans will love too - this is the kind of hill he will be able to hang in there on with the leading group, and if he has the legs may be able to have a go near the top and he is an excellent and very fast descender. If he gets away with a small group that does not contain Gerrans then he will give it 100% down the run-in to the finish. I took some 7/1 with Paddy Power  when they opened, but then BetVictor came out with 10/1 so I had some of that too!

Another that interests me at a very big price is Robert Gesink at 60/1 with BetVictor . He finished strongly yesterday, taking 5th place ahead of a lot of the fancied riders and he might be interested in giving this a go up Corkscrew Hill. If he gets a gap at the top of the climb he may have the power to hang on, possibly even better if he gets a few other besides Gerrans or Ulissi to go with him, they may be watching each other.. It's a long shot, but it certainly isn't a 60/1 shot, he is only 17/1 with Paddy Power and 25/1 with Boyles which is more like it.

Watch twitter later for price updates and match bet suggestions - @cyclingbetting is my handle. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way Cadel Evans at 7/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pt each-way on Cadel Evans at 10/1  with BetVictor

0.5pt each-way Robert Gesink at 60/1 with BetVictor 

Fun bet - 0.5pt each-way double, Cadel Evans 10/1 and Tom Boonen (Tour de San Luis) at 12/1 with BetVictor - it pays 77/1!