Tour Down Under  - Stage 1

Nuriootpa to Angaston,  135km 

Stage 1 of the Tour Down Under was in doubt over the weekend, as the extremely hot temperatures in the Adelaide area were causing bush fires which were posing a potential danger. Thankfully the green light was given this morning and what an interesting start to the race it should be.

The Route

Stage 1 - Nuriootpa to Angaston,  135km

Stage 1 takes the riders on a 2 lap loop of mostly flat to rolling countryside in the wine valleys of Adelaide, but has a sting in the tail with just 15km to go. The riders suddenly take a sharp right and start heading up Menglers Hill Road for the KOM which comes with 123.3kms done. The Mengler Hill main section is just over 2.5kms long at an average gradient of 7.1%.

The hill does roll along for a few kilometres more after the KOM, with great views over the Barossa valley before descending down to the finish in Angaston. so any strong riders who put the pressure on up the climb should really press on over the final few kilometres before their rivals can recover and coordinate a chase down the other side. 

Cadel Evans has warned about the importance of Menglers for the overall. He clearly has done his homework and he thinks that some will lose valuable time if they get dropped as there isn't much of the race left after it to try to get back on again. It shouldn't really phase most of the main contenders, but if anyone is off form at all they will be found out very early on in the race. The run in to the finish will be fast and furious. There are three sharp turns inside the last 4kms but there's only a slight left hander to worry about in the last 500m. The last 500m slope slightly upwards, so if it comes to a sprint it will suit the power sprinters like Greipel, Gerrans and Goss. Kittel was a very impressive winner of the People's Choice Classic on Sunday (above) but I am not sure he will be in the mix at the finish in this stage. 

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Contenders and Favourites

Not a lot of bookies pricing it up (888sport are the same company as Unibet as you can see from the duplication of prices) but the other two stalwarts of cycling betting market making are present as ever, with Bet365 and Paddy Power  both out with prices at this stage. We may get more out later today but I can't see them differing much from the prices on offer, left.

The betting shows just how hard it is to call a winner on this opening stage, with Simon Gerrans the joint-favourite with Caleb Ewan around 6/1, then it's 9/1 Greipel, 14s for Matthews and Alaphilippe, 19s on Goss and 22s on Viviani. 

The top two in the betting are very interesting for contrasting reasons. The Senior and U23 National champions are poles apart in terms of experience but there is no doubt Ewan is a special talent. We all know what Gerrans is capable of and I can see him putting in a very big performance in this stage to try to lay down a marker. He was super in the Nationals last week and will be full of confidence. It is the kind of finish he will love and you can expect OGE to be fully fired up for this stage.

Ewan makes his first serious start against World Tour teams and sprinters and it will be fascinating to see how he gets on. He wasn't afraid to get involved in the final sprint in the people's classic, taking 3rd spot behind Kittel, but I am worried as to how he gets on in this race now it gets 'real'. Chris Sutton was a similar young rider - U23 champ in 2005 when he made his TDU debut riding for Ewan's UniSA-Australia team  and as he put it he 'got his head pounded in'.

He's got the power and the climbing skills to not be overly worried about  Menglers, but if things get heated in the last 4kms he may be nudged out of it. There will be no niceties handed out to a 19-year old when the likes of Viviani, Goss, Greipel and co are going full gas. Viviani is the kind of guy who would put him in a barrier if he tried to take his wheel..

As Matt White, OGE's  head DS put it "in the nitty-gritty of those finales, there's going to be no love lost in not letting one of those guys get in position. He is going to struggle. There is a level of respect that all the World Tour teams have for each other and then a different level for the ProContinental teams, and the national and guest teams." So as much as I would love to see him take an incredible stage win, or at the least be involved at the finish, I will watch and wait before putting money on him I think, especially at a best price of only 8/1.

André Greipel is one that I like the look of though. He is a better climber than most sprinters, especially over these kinds of short, sharp climbs and he has a good team with him to put the hammer down and try to blow the likes of Kittel and Viviani out the back door. If he does get over the top with the likes of Gerrans, Rojas, Evans, Thomas, Porte and co, he would have to be favourite to take the sprint. That is a big IF though that he stays with the leaders over the top, but even if he loses a little time his train might be good enough to get him back in contention. At 14/1 he is worth a small bet each-way with Paddy Power.

Marcel Kittel showed a tremendous turn of pace to reel in Greipel, who looked the winner with 200m to go, but I cannot see him getting over Menglers with the leaders and am ruling him out of contention with a fair degree of confidence! Same goes for Steele Van Hoff. Diego Ulissi might spring a surprise too, but I feel he could save himself for later in the week.

It really is a lottery outside of that though for now, so just two small bets recommended on Stage 1:

1pt win Simon Gerrans at 7/1 with Paddy Power  

0.5pt each-way Andre Greipel at 14/1 with Paddy Power