- Details
- Published on Monday, 21 April 2014 00:30
Giro Del Trentino 2015
April 21st to 24th, 2015
While some riders are sprinting up the Mur de Huy or preparing for Liege-Bastogne-Liege this week, others head for some mountain fun in Trentino. The four stages from the Tuesday to the Friday of this week offer a Team Time Trial and three tough stages with two summit finishes.
Can Richie Porte take another stage race win to add to Catalunya and Paris-Nice?
The format is the same as the Giro Del Trentino 2014, with a short TTT to open proceeding, different to what it was in 2013 when there was a short 128km stage 1a followed by a TTT stage 1b. This should lead to small time gaps between the main teams going in to stages 2, 3 and 4 but the time gaps from the TTT shouldn't really make any difference to the final standings with three tough stages to come and three summit finishes.
Last year's winner, Cadel Evans has of course retired, so it's over to his runner-up Dominico Pozzovivo to try to go one spot better this year. With most of the major Grand Tour stars getting in some practice for the TDF on the Mur de Huy, it's a pretty light line-up in terms of superstars that are here, but it still boasts the likes of Richie Porte, Pozzovivo, JC Peraud, Romain Bardet and Mikel Nieve.
There are plenty of 'dark horses' here too from the lesser fancied teams like Louis Meintjes for MTN Qhubeka, Davide Formolo and Franco Pellizotti.
The race is run through one of the most beautiful parts of Italy, skirting along the Dolomites just south of the Austrian border, which offers stunning scenery, steep climbs and the possibilty of snowy passes. First run in 1962, it lasted just two years before falling away again but was resurrected in 1979. It used to be a major Italian race for the local heroes preparing for the Giro but is now a far more international affair, attracting the sorts of names I mentioned above.
This is not a race for sprinters, and very few even bother coming here. In fact there has been no bunch sprint since 2010, but the final stage this week in Cles could be a key stage for those who can gallop, as it could offer a sprint finish.. The weather could play a key part too as they head up in to the mountains with rain and snow forecast for later in the week.
The Route and Stage Predictions
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Riva del Garda to Arco - Team Time Trial, 13.3km
Tuesday April 22nd
This is the exact same course as last year, just 100m shorter. Starting from the shores of the beautiful lake Garda, they head south-east along or close to the lake before turning north. After about 5kms they take a sharp left to do a rectangular shape and back more or less on to where they came from before heading north in an S shape to the finish in Arco. It is dead flat, with barely a change in elevation the whole way and is an extremely fast course for the power men to drive their teams on.
There is little to appeal as is often the case with TTTs, Sky are the 5/6 favourites and they should win, but last year, Movistar were the 4/9 favourites and didn't even finish in the first 3, scraping home in 4th! Instead it was won by 12/1 shots BMC who were marshalled superbly by Cadel Evans, to help set him up for overall victory. Sky have a strong squad here though, led by Porte, with Konig, Siutsou, Nieve and Boswell also here. They should win, but after last year, not sure I want to be backing them at odds-on. Konig was instrumental in Net-App Endura's brilliant second place last year, so he knows how to ride the course.
Second favourites are Astana at 9/4, and they too could go well, but with a lowly 6th last year, caution is again urged. Aru is not starting after all and the rest of the squad look light enough to me and devoid of a real leader, so, not interested.
The only team that really appeals to me are Cannondale Garmin at 11/1 - this is a far better squad than they had here last year, with Hesjedal, Dombrowski, Moreno Moser, Nathan Brown, Edward King and Davide Villela. They could go well, hopefully better than last year where they finished 5th, just missing out on a podium spot by 4".
So my recommendation for Stage 1 is to keep your money in your pocket as there is nothing of value from what I can see. If I was to be pushed for a bet though, I'd say have a half a point each-way on Cannondale-Garmin at 11/1 with PP.
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Arco to Brentonico, 168.2km
Wednesday 22nd April
This stage uses some of the roads in last year's second stage, but this year they are doing a loop north-west of Lake Garda over 131kms of rolling hills before they head south-east towards the tough final 37kms.
First, with 37kms to go they start on the Passo Santa Barbara, a tough HC climb that averages 6% for 14kms, hitting 8.6% max near the top. This should stretch things out quite a lot and lead to the selection of favourites being made for the final climb. After a very fast and tricky descent for 11kms, the road rises again for the final climb up to the finish in Brentonico.
The final climb isn't the toughest in the world, with the first 6kms not being very difficult at all, averaging around 5%. Then there is a little flat part betwen 5 and 6kms before it kicks up a little for 1500m or so, hitting 8, 9 and even 14% in parts. The final 500m are flat though meaning if someone has broken clear they will have to hold off the chasers on the run-in, or if it's a small group of favourites come to the line together it will come down to who can sprint best.
The penultimate climb looks like being the important one though and we could see some big attacks go here from some of the favourites, looking to get a head start ahead of the final climb. There may also be attacks near the top from those who can descend well, looking to gain an advantage over the 11km descent to the base of the final climb. If they are strong enough and can get a decent little gap, they might hold on as the climb isn't the hardest in the world.
Richie Porte has been installed as 3/1 favourite with Paddy Power but is only 2/1 with Bet365. He has been in great shape this year and this sort of course should suit him well, Sky will be able to drag him over the Barbara and probably stretch things out enough to thin it down to less than 30 riders heading to the final climb. As the final climb is relatively easy, with only about 1500m being up in the 8-10% gradient, he should be pretty comfortable and could possibly try an attack of his own. Not sure about the price though, it's a little short given the stage could be an open affair with that big climb coming with just 37kms to go.
Domenico Pozzovivo is next around 7/2 and although he scored a good win in Girona in the Vuelta a Catalunya, I think he was a bit fortunate and it was the others screwed up by letting him go more than anything else. He won this of course in 2012, sealing victory with a great win on the stage to Brenzone, Punta Veleno, but that was a much steeper and harder climb than this final one and I think it might not be steep enough for him to get away. The flat run in doesn't work in his favour either.
Mikal Landa is third favourite around 10/1 and he is too inconsitent for me to trust him. Plus, he was ill not so long ago so I can't trust him tomorrow. Louis Meintjes is a rider I like a lot and have tipped him up a few times at big prices where he has come close but no reward (for me!). The fancy prices are gone too on him now, no more 50/1 or 66/1, he is best price 14/1 for tomorrow and I can't take that price until I see a big ride out of him.
It really is a lottery after that so I think I am going to pick a few long shots that I think could either a) get in a decent break and maybe hold it all the way to the finish, b) could attack over the last climb/descent and hold it to the finish, or c) stay with the favourites until the sprint finish and may be able to outsprint some of the other climbing types!
One I like the look of at a reasonable price is Ryder Hesjedal at 40/1 with Bet365. He is a likely candidate for a) and b) above and could try to pull off a result like in the Giro last year (2nd behind Quintana) on the climb to Val Martello, or in his victory on the stage to La Camperona in the Vuelta. He hasn't shown much yet this year in his form but with him being the team leader for this race he is not tasked with looking after someone like Dan Martin and will have free reign to go and do something.
Another possible candidate is Blel Kadri for AG2R at 150/1. He hasn't had a great start to the year, but his team rode in to 4th place today in the TTT, which was a bit of a surprise, so he must be in reasonably good shape to help with that effort. Winner of a very similar sort of stage to Gerardmer in the TDF last year, with some tough climbs near the finish and a Cat3 climb to the finish line. He may be given some freedom to attack to take the chasing duties off Pozzovivo and might give us a run for our money at a big price.
With Fabio Aru not starting, Astana look a little bit rudderless to me - maybe Landa, maybe Rosa, but Paolo Tiralongo could well go off and do whatever he wants to do tomorrow. He rode well in Catalunya, taking a good 3rd place behind Valverde and Uran in the stage to Valls. He's 80/1 with BetVictor, he's half that price with some of the others and he could attack on the run to the final climb or even sprint to victory at the finish.
Fabio Duarte came 3rd last year in the stage to San Giacomo de Brentonico, a different route to the hills of Brentonico, on his way to an excellent 4th overall. He hasn't shown much this year either so far this year but he came alive around this time last year and went on to produce some decent results in the Giro. He's not a great price at 20/1, but he could be involved again tomorrow.
The final one I like is another old-timer at 37 (like Tiralongo) is Franco Pellizotti - he has been going well this year with a number of top ten places, and last year in trentino he finished 3rd and 7th on the two toughest stages, and followed that with a brilliant 2nd on the stage to the Monte Zoncolan in the Giro. At 33/1 he's another long shot worth a small bet tomorrow as he could be one for the c) above to sprint to victory from a reduced group. Richie Porte could well win, but that price is a bit short on a stage that could be a bit wild..
Recommendations:
0.3pts each-way on Ryder Hesjedal at 40/1 with Bet365
0.2pts each-way on Blel Kadri at 150/1 with PP
0.3pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 80/1 with BetVictor
0.5pts each-way on Fabio Duarte at 20/1 with Ladbrokes
0.4pts each-way on Franco Pellizotti at 33/1 with PP
Stage 2 Map
Stage 2 Profile
Stage 2 Last 5kms
Stage 2 Passo S. Barbara
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Ala to Fierozzo Val dei Mòcheni, 183.8kms
A demolition job by Richie Porte today, I don't know why I didn't pile in to him, he's been so good to me this year so far! It's all over now barring accidents you'd think, and it just depends on whether he wants to go and win a second stage tomorrow and put it to bed or whether he wants to just try defending tomorrow and get in a different type of training ahead of the Giro. I think that if he fancies it again tomorrow, he wins. I wasn't sure he would win today, I should have had more faith.. Instead I was waiting to back him for tomorrow's stage with a finish I thought he'd prefer. I actually thought he might be evens or shorter given how he rode away from them all today, he is in fact 7/4 with PP.
He was just brilliant today and his team teed him up nicely for when he finally attacked with less than 3kms to go. Pirazzi attacked and got a little gap, but suddenly Porte accelerated past him like he was going backwards and quickly put in a gap of around 12". He seemed to spend almost all of the last two kilometres out of the saddle, except for the last 500m or so which was downhill and he time-trialled it powerfully all the way to the line. He looks lean and powerful and should be well capable of following it up with another victory tomorrow.
Mikel Landa showed that he is in better shape than I gave him credit for and was the closest to Porte, 16" back. The surprise of the day for me was Damiano Cunego in 3rd place, leading home the chasing group 32" back, but actually looking at his recent results, he has been going really well, with a fine 2nd place in the Settimana Coppi e Bartali behind Louis Meintjes three weeks ago. He looked fast leading home the chasers, but if the finish was uphill like it is tomorrow I'm not sure he'd have been as fast.
Landa is the 6/1 second favourite and it is quite probable that he could come closest to Porte again tomorrow. He could be worth an each-way bet at 6/1 with Bet365 as he could well finish in the top 3 again, he was clearly best of the rest and seemed to be climbing pretty well. Torres, Konig and Zardini finished with Cunego in the 1st group on the road, Torres could be an interesting one for tomorrow with the uphill finish. Konig is keen on securing his podium spot so expect him to be agressive and to the forefront of the race also.
Domenico Pozzovivo was very disappointing today again, as Porte was attacking with 2kms to go, Pozzovivo was struggling and getting dropped. He's 12/1 tomorrow but based on that performance today I'm not touching him.
It might be a bit risky backing Porte now that he is in the lead and only has to defend, but I think he won't be thinking that way if he's in contention with 3 or 4kms to go. The other danger is that a break goes with no danger men in it, there are some huge time gaps already after just 2 stages and Sky just take it easy and don't chase. With two men on the podium, it will be up to Astana to chase and this could give Sky a nice armchair ride to the final few kilometres. If the break isn't dangerous, they might just make it. Picking who is in it is almost impossible, so I'm going to stick with Dickie Doors and that the break will be reeled in. If so, he will leave them all behind again you'd think and secure the overall victory.
Recommendation:
4pts win on Richie Porte at 11/8 with Bet365 (the 7/4 with PP was gone by the time I finished writing this..)
MatchBets:
Bardet to beat Pozzovivo - 2pts at 10/11
Pelizotti to beat Duarte, Porte to beat Landa and Meintjes to beat Mendes - 1.5pts on the treble at 13/8 with Bet365
Stage 3 Map
Stage 3 Profile
Stage 3 Last 5kms
Stage 3 Montagnaga
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Malè to Cles, 161.5kms
Well after a good result on Wednesday with Valverde, it was the opposite today with Porte where I gave back all the profits.. That really sucked today to see Pozzovivo, who had been dropped yesterday sprint away from Porte, Landa and Bardet to take the stage. Apparently his poor finish Wednesday was because he got a hunger knock a few kilometres from the finish, shame I found that out after his win today and not before. Still, even if I knew that I don't think it would have changed my view whatsoever, he was still way too short to back and I thought Porte would win.
Anyway, on to Stage 4, a circular, corkscrew kind of stage that winds its way around the finishing city of Cles until it reaches a circular circuit around the city that they so twice at the end. Along the way they pass two Cat 2 climbs, neither of which are very difficult, the second of which comes comes with 60kms still to go so they shouldn't really have a major factor in the outcome of the stage.
When they get on to the finishing circuit though they have to get over a short and sharp little hill out of Nanno twice - it's 2.5kms long but has a steep 700m section at around 11% which could split things up. There are still 3kms downhill to go once over it though so we could see a regrouping and a reduced group sprint finish.
Mauro Finetto is the 13/2 favourite for the stage with Bet365, but is only 4/1 with PP. At his best you'd think he'd be good enough to take this, but he doesn't look at his best at the moment, hasn't come close to a podium. Oscar Gatto at 9/1 looks interesting, he took an excellent 6th place in Strade Bianche and 6th in the GP Nobili not so long ago and this sort of finish suits him very well.
Simone Ponzi took 2nd place in that GP Nobili, a race he won last year. He took a whole load of top 10 places in Italian races last year and he could go well on this finish too. It's going to depend on team orders and positioning really as Finetto and Ponzi both ride for the Southeast team.
I tipped up Paolo Tiralongo a few days ago and he did ok but not good enough, down in 28th place. He could like this finish too. At first earlier today I was thinking that Astana riders might have had a lot of pressure lifted off them with the ridiculous decision by the UCI to just give them another 'final, final, final chance'.. But then tonight the twitter world was alight with rumours that Fabio Aru's 'sickness' that kept him out of this race was in fact due to problems with his biological passport.. Greg Henderson even called him out on Twitter, riders usually know the score with who the dopers are... So who knows now what the mood in the camp is and whether Tiralongo will be up for it tomorrow.
Stefani Pirazzi could try something on that sharp, steep ramp and could solo to the finish, he looks big at 50/1 with PP, he is only 18/1 with Bet365.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Oscar Gatto at 9/1 with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Stefano Pirazzi at 50/1 with PP
Stage 4 Map
Stage 4 Profile
Overall Contenders and Favourites
Last year my picks were Cadel Evans e/w at 7/1, Niemiec e/w at 12/1 and Pozzovivo win at 7/4.. They finished 1st, 3rd and 2nd, so not a bad outcome at all!
I'm quite pressed for time this week, I'll try to get a short overall preview done by Tuesday night, but I don't think the TTT will alter prices much unless Porte and Sky go out and crush it and he gets an immediate 20" or more cushion over his rivals. Initial thoughts are this is there for the taking for Porte, but there is little appeal at just 4/5, and there's not a lot of value either in Pozzovivo at just 3/1. I have my eye on a few others, but I'll wait until tomorrow night, I think they may get bigger in price rather than shorter after the TTT.
So the TT is over and I'm glad I steered clear of it, Bora-Argon pulling off a 150/1 shock by turning over 5/6 favourites Team Sky! It has seen Porte gain a small little advantage over some of his rivals though, but there isn't much in it. Prices haven't changed much, but in fact Porte has drifted a touch to 10/11 from 4/5.
Stage 2 is the first big challenge for the GC men with the tough climb of the Passo Santa Barbara coming just 37kms from the finish and then the summit finish to Brentonico, but I have a feeling that there might not be all that much between most of the GC favourites on the stage. The descent to the final climb and the fact it isn't the hardest of climbs may see a bit of a regrouping on the descent or in the first easyish 5kms or so of the climb.
Instead I think it will be stage 3 to Fierozzo Val dei Mòcheni that could be the significant stage with the Cat 1 climb summit coming just 22kms from the finish and that's followed by the Cat 2 summit finish to Fierozzo Val dei Mòcheni. The final climb is sure to be a fast and furious affair - it's only 8kms but it averages 6.7%, with several sections hitting 10-11%. Unlike stage 2 where the last 500m or so are flat, stage 3's finish goes up all the way to the line, averaging 5% for the last kilometre. This could be the stage we see Richie Porte attack away from everyone, we know by now the sort of average gradient that he likes, climbs around the 5-6% with a regular slope like this one.
I'm tempted to back him, he has done well for me after all this year with wins in Paris-Nice at 2/1 and Catalunya at 16/1, but I might just wait until after stage 2. He may win stage 2, he may do well, but I'm not sure about backing him at odds on. It may be that he loses a little bit of time on stage 2 and goes out to a backable price and then gets it back on stage 3.. we'll see.
I don't see any value in Pozzovivo at those prices (3/1) - he might win, he could podium, but equally he might be out of the running if a break throws things up in the air.. I'm just not sure about him. Same with Landa, he could do well like this time last year, but I'm not sure he has the form this year yet.
JC Peraud could do with steeper roads I think, he will be outsprinted on stage 2 and could be caught for pace on stage 3 if Sky really look to rip it up the final climb at a high pace to set up Porte. I don't see a lot of value elsewhere really, Louis Meintjes was one I was hoping to back but 20/1 is a bit tight, he could so with steeper finishes too I think to try to shake off the likes of Porte.
Diego Rosa has been going well lately and was left cursing his luck in Amstel Gold when on the attack with Nibali, he was brought down by Damiano Caruso on a bend. He could be left do his own thing with Landa, and he has the power to stay with a lot of the climbers as he showed in Amstel Gold - he's not a bad climber when he wants to, he finished second in the KOM competitionin Trentino last year after all. He's my only interest to start with at a reasonable 40/1 with Ladbrokes.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Diego Rosa at 40/1 with Ladbrokes
wait and see with Richie Porte..
