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Published on Monday, 20 April 2015 22:43

La Flèche Wallone 2015

Waremme to Mur de Huy

Wed. 22nd April, 205.5kms

After an exciting finish to Amstel Gold Race in Holland on Sunday, the focus now switches to the Belgian Ardennes with La Flèche Wallone on Wednesday, followed on Sunday by 'La Doyenne', Liege-Bastogne-Liege. The Mur is a fearsome finish to La Fleche Wallone and has an extra special significance this year, being the finish for a stage in this summer's Tour De France.

Lots of riders will be looking for victory of course on Wednesday, but plenty others will be here to get some practice and knowledge of the finish ahead of stage 3 of the Tour in July.

WIth 10 bonus seconds available on the day and the possibilty of traffic problems on the narrow roads causing gaps, the GC men will be looking to stay out of trouble and it should make for a frantic finish to the stage. Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay Van Garderen are all here, only Alberto Contador of the leading TDF challengers is missing. 

First run in 1936, the Fleche missed just one edition during the war in 1940. The race is of course dominated by the finish up the famous Mur de Huy, a savage brute of a hill to finish off a tough race. 1.3kms at an average of 9.3% with sections hitting over 24% in places. Go too early and you get swamped by the late finishers. Valverde timed it perfectly last year and burst past Dan Martin, who looked like he had it in the bag. Same with Betancur and Gilbert in 2013, who were passed by Dani Moreno's late burst. 

But there's a lot more to the race than just the finishing dash up the Mur. Not only do they climb it twice before in the race, but as they criss-cross between the provinces of Namur and Liege they hit a bunch of other Côtes along the way. 

The event was first run on roads from Tournai to Liège, growing from 236km to 300km - its longest ever distance - in 1938 and the route has changed venues and distances many times over the years. Again this year there is a huge change to the route with it being 6.5kms longer and starting in Waremme way up in the north this year, instead of Bastogne last year which was way down in the south. There are some minor alterations to the finishing circuits too but no change to the thrilling finale up the Mur.

There have been four riders who have won this race three times including Eddy Merckx, Moreno Argentin and Davide Rebellin. Davide Rebellin takes to the start again this year going for a record breaking fourth win but there is also previous winners Moreno ('13), Rodriguez ('12), Gilbert ('11) and Valverde ('06 and '14) here, Valverde going for a record-equalling third title.   

The Route

There's a major change of direction to the race this year, as they now start in Waremme, some 24kms north of Huy and head generally south-east for around 55kms until they hit Durbuy, where they start to turn and head back north-west towards the finishing circuits. Along the way they cross the first climb of the day, the Côte des 36 Tournants which they hit after just 22kms. They join the finishing circuit at Ohey after 84.5kms and for the next 34kms they roll along part of the second lap of the finishing circuit. 

They hit the  Côte de Bellaire first after 92kms, it's a kilometre long at 6.8% average - a nice warm up for what's to come. This year they do the Côte de Bohisseau on the first passage after 100kms, unlike last year where they by-passed it by going in a straighter line across the top of the circuit. The Côte de Bohisseau is a tough 7.6% average for 1.3kms and hits sections of over 13% in the first 200m, then they have an 18km run to the finish line passage of the Mur de Huy. Don't expect any fireworks first time up, but it could trigger some attacks by those eager to try their luck from a little further out. 

Just 13kms later they hit the Côte d'Ereffe (2.2kms at 5.9%) as they head out on the second circuit. They continue to head south-west as far as Ohey where they start back on the same road they passed 58kms before. Once more over the Bellaire, Bohisseau and the Mur before starting on the smaller, red circuit after 176kms you can see in the map below. This time, shortly after the Côte d'Ereffe they cut right with 13kms to go and head back to Huy where they take a slight detour off the original route to head over the Côte de Cherave with just 5.5kms to go. Then it's the charge to the bottom of the Mur for the last, frantic charge up the hill. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a finish that can catch a lot of riders out but can see others who like the steep gradients come from very far back over the closing 200 metres. Just look at where Dan Martin came from in 2013, with 150m to go he was in about 12-15th place, he ended up almost taking 3rd, missing by millimetres with a super-impressive surge.

It is quite a small pool of riders really who can win this race, it's very unusual for breakaways to win, as the teams of the favourites will keep a tight leash on the break and should reel it in in plenty of time to allow their leaders to take good positions near the front in time for the Mur. 

Early prices has the reigning champion Alejandro Valverde as the favourite at 3/1, followed closely by Joaquim Rodriguez at 5/1. Valverde loves a finish like this on a tough course like this and will be well looked after by a strong looking Movistar squad again. He is sure to try something similar to last year, just needs to be in the first 10 or so in the last 300m or so and he is likely to rocket away from them all again. Winner in 2006, 2nd in '07, 21st in '08, 7th in '09, 7th (but stripped of it) in '10, 46th in '12 and 7th in 2013, he's almost always gone really well here. 

He's been in good form and has prepared well for the Ardennes Classics, and that showed with his decent second place in Amstel Gold on Sunday. He never looked like beating Kwiatkowski who got the jump on him but he did manage to beat Matthews in the sprint which was unexpected. I say unexpected, but Matthews was exhausted after chasing Gilbert down on the hardest part of the Cauberg. I also think it is important for the likes of Valverde to gain some confidence ahead of the TDF stage here and lay down a marker. As big as winning a classic like this is, winning the stage in the TDF probably carries a lot more prestige, especially if it could mean the winner could take the yellow jersey. He's in good shape, he's last year's winner, he's a strong favourite for the win. 

Joaquim Rodriguez finished in 32nd place in AGR, in the group led home by Tim Wellens, 18" back, which was a big disappointment for him, he was expected to be up there with the likes of Gilbert and Valverde. Katusha are blaming the crash that happened 40kms from the finish as it held up quite a few of them and they expended a lot of energy to get back on and Rodriguez was too tired.

Winner of the race though in 2012, 6th in 2013, but way down in 70th in 2014, he also finished 2nd in 2011 and 2010 so he is pretty consistent with his results in this race. If indeed it was just down to misfortune then he should be very fired up to make amends for it on Wednesday and should be a big danger. The question is, does he try to go first and attack out the pack and hold off Valverde and co. or does he sit in and follow Valverde and try to outsprint him at the finish? I think he'll have to go first and try to hold on like he did with his brilliant win in 2012, I don't think he'll get past Valverde , like he couldn't get past Evans in 2010.

Dan Martin was very prominent for a lot of the race Sunday, staying near the front of the race more often than he normally does, it looked like he was going well and hopeful of a decent finish. As it was, he was unable to go with the early attacks from Gilbert and Matthews, instead had to scramble with the chasers to hang in there, but was never a challenger in the sprint, he finished in 15th, towards the back of the leading group. The finish up the Mur is much more to his liking though and I expect him to be in the first three on Wednesday. He should be right near the front with 500m to go and just needs to time it right and hope for a bit of luck in running. He can explode away from most of these guys, but whether he can hang on again all the way to the top is the question, he faded last year, whereas the year before when he came from further back he finished incredibly fast, passing lots of guys in the last 100m. 

He will have to watch Valverde, Rodriguez and possibly Kwiatkowski too and then try to time his counter-attack right. It will be hard to beat the two Spaniards on this finish, but he is capable of it. He loves this race, as he texted a few days before La Fleche last year:

Fleche Wallone. Possibly my favourite race of the year. Incredible atmosphere and no hiding on the Muur. Strongest wins #wereready

— Dan Martin (@DanMartin86) April 22, 2014

He was pushed out a little by PP from 11/2 to 7/1 though after Sunday, so he didn't impress the bookies too much, but that is because others like Valverde and Kwiatkowski have shortened in price.

Michal Kwiatkowski was very impressive at the finish on Sunday, pulling off a very powerful sprint at the end of a hard last 2kms. He positioned himself well in the lead up to the sprint and once he got in front of Valverde he pulled across in front of him to stop him coming past him again. We knew he was in good shape, but to win the sprint like that in the Rainbow Stripes was impressive. I think though the circumstances in how Matthews exhausted himself going after Gilbert made it easier for him, but it was a very strong sprint nonetheless.

Third behind Valverde and Martin in 2014, he was looking good for parts of the climb, leading at the front, then seemed to go through some bad moments and was passed by the likes of Mollema and Arredondo, then went again only to be passed in the last 150m by Dan Martin and then Valverde. He was absolutely on the limit though and it may be that he finds a few too strong for him again this year, especially if Sunday's win took a lot out of him. He is in great form though and is clearly very strong as he showed in Sunday and he should be good enough for a top 5 again.

Next we start to move in to the outsiders a little bit, and first up is Sergio Henao. I say outsider, well he was when he was 66/1 less than two weeks ago, but since then his price has plummeted to an almost unbackable 10/1. Yes, he's got a chance, I said so in a twitter conversation with @SpringClassics on the 9th April, he was smart enough to take some, I forgot to! He has been riding well on the steep stuff, and it was his performance on the wall up to Aia in Pais Vasco that triggered his price collapse. It was he who went in pursuit of Simon Yates, finishing just behind him, but holding off Purito Rodriguez to finish 2nd of the favourites group. He then followed that with an excellent 4th place in the TT up the same hill the next day. He is as short as 5/1 now and I can't recommend backing him at that price. 

2nd in 2013 behind Moreno, he finished powerfully to pull away from Gilbert and Sagan who were flagging and reel in long-time leader on the climb, Carlos Betancur. If he can finish like that Wednesday though, he should be able to finish in the top 6. If you're a Sky fan, or just a Henao fan, I can't put you off backing him, but take the 10/1 with Coral, the 9/1 with PP or even the 7/1 with Boyles who are paying 4 places, just don't take the 5/1 with Bet365!

Winner that year, Dani Moreno also has a good chance of a good result, all depends really what happens with Rodriguez and whether he'll be let do his own thing or whether he will be tasked with stretching things out for Purito. He's got the punchy finish, or should I say, he had the punchy finish, he rarely troubles the podium these days, let alone the top step. The stage to Valdepeñas de Jaén in the Vuelta 2013 was the last time he won something. I don't think he'll be troubling the podium again Wednesday, even at 14/1.

Philippe Gilbert has been struggling on this climb in recent years, he just doesn't have the punch any more to win on a hill like this. Simon Yates has sacrificed his chances of defending his title in the Tour of Turkey in order to race Fleche-Wallone and Liege, and he could have a good chance of being up at the front in the last 300m. The finish can be a real challenge for newcomers and in his first ride last year he finished way down the field in 78th place. It's a race he might win in years to come, but his lack of experience might find him out again this year. 

Bauke Mollema has gone well here in the past but I don't think he's in top shape, Julian Arredondo same, he led it for a while last year but faded badly in the end. Jelle Vanendert has had some good results here in the past, a 4th and two 6th places, he seems to know where to be and how to time his run pretty well and he can go close again at 40/1.

I think it will be too punchy for the likes of Froome, Uran, Quintana, Gallopin and Nibali and it will be amongst the guys named above, it's very unlikely we will see a surprise winner, unless the break of the day manage to build up a huge lead and the peloton screw up. 

As someone put it to me today, it's like the old line about the World Cup that Lineker uses "And in the end Germany win on penalties" - it feels a little like that with Valverde and this finish. I think we'll see the usual attacks go too early and fade, from the likes of Arredondo and Yates, we'll see Mollema, Kwiatkowski, Rodriguez and Gilbert grinding it at the front, only for Valverde and Dan Martin to come past them at the finish. It could be a real battle between the two of them, but I think Valverde will take it. I'm backing Valverde for tomorrow, but I'm also backing Dan Martin in a double for Liége-Bastogne-Liége at a massive 64/1 with PP.. I think he has a big chance on Sunday, why not have a nice little bet running on him if he goes well tomorrow?! 

Recommendations: 

3pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 10/3 with Corals

1pt each-way double on Dan Martin at 64/1 to win FW and LBL with Paddy Power

Match bets:

Nibali to beat Kreuziger - 1.8pts at 4/6

Mollema to beat Dani Moreno - 1pt at 13/8

Kwiatkowski to beat Gilbert (4/11), Arredondo to beat Chaves (1/3) and Albasini to beat Poels (4/11) - 2pts on the treble at 6/4, all with PP.