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- Published on Tuesday, 22 April 2014 01:30
Giro Del Trentino - Overall Preview and Stages
April 22nd to 25th, 2014
While some riders are fine tuning their Giro preparations at the Ardennes Classics, others head to Trentino for some mountain training. The four stages from the Tuesday to the Friday of this week offer a Team Time Trial and three tough stages with summit finishes.
The format is slightly different to last year's in that last year there was a short 128km stage 1a followed by a TTT stage 1b, but this year it is just a team time trial of 14.3kms. This should lead to small time gaps between the main teams going in to stages 2, 3 and 4 but the time gaps from the TT shouldn't really make any difference to the final standings with three tough stages to come and three summit finishes.
Last year's winer Vincenzo Nibali isn't here and his deputy will be Michele Scarponi, who is confident of being able to fill his shoes. There's a pretty high quality field here for it with Cadel Evans leading BMC, Domenico Pozzovivo leading AG2R, Ivan Basso leading Cannondale, Igor Anton leading Movistar and Bradley Wiggins leading Sky to name a few.
There are plenty of 'dark horses' here too from the lesser fancied teams like Niemiec for Lampre-Merida, Bongiorno and Pirazzi for Bardiani-CSF and Pellizoti for Androni.
The race is run through one of the most beautiful parts of Italy, skirting along the Dolomites just south of the Austrian border, which offers stunning scenery, steep climbs and the possibilty of snowy passes. First run in 1962, it lasted just two years before falling away again but was resurrected in 1979. It used to be a major Italian race for the local heroes preparing for the Giro but is now a far more international affair, attracting the sorts of names I mentioned above.
But even though it is being considered a Giro prep for some, the significant absentees are two of the Giro favourites Nairo Quintana and Joaquin Rodriguez. In fact out of the top 3 from last year, Nibali is absent, Santambrogio is suspended and Maxime Bouet, a surprise 3rd last year, is the only one appearing.
This is not a race for sprinters, and very few even bother coming here. In fact there has been no bunch sprint since 2010! The weather could play a key part too as they head up in to the mountains with rain and snow possibly forecast for later in the week, especially on the Queen stage on Friday.
The Route and Stage Predictions
Click on each tab to read stage previews and recommendations. Stage information and predictions will be added closer to each stage.
Second favourites are Sky at 13/4 and that's a terrible bet in my opinion. They may have Bradley Wiggins here but the rest of the squad is pretty average and geared towards the mountains with Deignan, Siutsou and Cataldo and ehat's more they only have 6 riders starting compared to every other team's eight. At 1/4 for the top three it's a dreadful value bet and I would happily lay that all day. 
Well after a surprise winner in BMC in the Team Time Trial on Tuesday, there are some interesting time gaps already from Cadel Evans. Big losers on the day were 4/9 shots Movistar who had a disaster in finishing off the podium in 4th place. NetApp Endura were the surprise package of the day though with a storming ride to finish in 2nd place, 4 seconds ahead of Sky who had a great ride considering there was only 6 of them and only 5 finished together.
opportunity in the last kilometre. I wouldn't be surprised if he went up the road with a km or so to go but equally I wouldn't be surprised to see him follow Evans wheel and sprint it out with him. 11/1 with 
A tremendous battle at the top of the climb on Stage 2 saw Bardiani's Edoardo Zardini take a great stage win, having been on the attack with Pirazzi and Landa, where he proved the strongest and rode away from them to win solo. He was chased home by Niemiec, Evans and Duarte inside the last kilometre as they left the peloton in pursuit. Unfortunately for my each-way selection, Evans, he finished in 4th just out of the money. It was a good result for the overall though as Evans now leads with Niemiec in 3rd. I'm also happy to have stayed away from a ridiculously short Pozzovivo today, he finished in 5th, 23" down on Evans and Co.
Things really start to kick off as they head towards the finishing town of Roncone on their northward run towards the little loop they are doing just south of the Lago de Ponte Pia. Heading towards Roncone they hit the Cat 2 climb of the Doone which averages a nasty 7.1% over 3kms. Then there's about 17kms of rolling roads before the next big test, the Cat 1 climb up to the Paso del Durone, which they approach from it's harder side. This is a real tough climb, reaching an altitude of 1039m as it snakes its way up over it's 7kms in length. It averages 8.3% but hits sections as high as 11 and 13% as you can see in the diagram on the right.
Fabio Aru could be the man for Astana on this stage as I can see Scarponi struggling on these gradients, indeed he may work hard for Aru during the stage to help set him up for a crack at the final climb (he finished 30" behind Aru on that stage in the Giro). Aru showed he had the legs on stage 2 beating Scarponi by 12" to finish in 6th, just behind Pozzovivo and I think he will be right up there again tomorrow - 14/1 might be worth a small each-way.
This legendary climb is 21.5 km long with 38 hairpin turns and has a 1463-meter altitude gain to reach a height of 
Overall Contenders and Favourites
If there ever was a chance for Domenico Pozzovivo to win a stage race then this is it. The course should suit him down to the ground and the opposition is pretty average to be fair. He will lose time in the opening TTT despite his deceptively good TT skills himself, but it shouldn't really bother him. The time gaps may be only 20-30" to his main rivals and with time bonuses available on each stage finish then he is well capable of wiping that deficit out with a few decent stages.
We may see him gain time on all bar a handful of the favourites who should finish with or very close to him on Stage 2 but I think it could well be on Stage 3 he makes his move rather than on the Queen Stage, Stage 4. He likes it when it's steep and the finishing climb on Stage 3 to Roncone is perfect for him in my opinion. The climb itself is around 30kms long if you take it from the valley after the descent off the Passo del Durone but as they approach the summit there is a little plateau of around 4kms before they start up the final ramp to the finish. The pace will have been high up to this point and so there will probably only be 10-20 of the main contenders still in contention.
But it's the final ramp where we could see Pozzo skip away from them. In the last 2.5kms they hit 15% slopes then back to 10.5% and back up to 13.5% for the last 500m. He could put 30" or more in to the likes of Evans and Scarponi here. Then on the Queen stage, depending on whether he is defending a lead or needing to grab a few more seconds then he is capable of doing both.
Second favourites around the 7/1 mark are Cadel Evans and Michele Scarponi and they are two quite similar riders nowadays. Punchy at times to try the occassional attacks, found wanting at other times when the nippier younger generation do their thing. Cadel was super in the Tour Down Under, landing a great bet for me at 10/1 on stage 3 up Corkscrew Hill, and then came to Europe and rode well in Strade Bianche but disappointed in Tirreno, we barely saw him at all as Contador and Kwiatkowski were stealing the show, pulling out before the final stage when over 30 minutes down.
He bounced back though with a good showing in the Pays Basque to finish 7th overall and put in some good work in the uphill stages. He should be there or thereabouts for sure as he is looking in good shape this year and the vibes are good coming from BMC (and the camp should be buzzing this week with Gilbert's run of results). I would think he is top 6 material, possibly even top 3 and he is worth backing each-way at 7/1 with Paddy Power, he is as short as 4/1 with Skybet and 9/2 with Bet365. Bookwalter, Oss, Eijssen and Morabito are on the Giro squad so they'll be looking to make a good impression for their captain too.
Scarponi has come off his traditional high-intensity, high-altitude training camp that he does every year around this time and the former winner (2011) comes here as team leader with Nibali absent. He has podiumed also in 2010 but he has also had some terrible results here so he really is a hard one to predict what way he will go. I feel though that he is not a good top 3 candidate and I will not be backing him at 7/1. He did ok at Andalucia and Tirreno-Adriatico but finished in 9th place and I can see a similar sort of result here. He lost over four minutes to the leaders in the final stage of the Criterium to l'Ospedale and that could well happen on stages 3 and 4 again.
Przemyslaw Niemiec is a 'dark horse' in this race, if you could call the 4th or 5th favourite a dark horse, but I guess if you asked all the fans who will turn up to watch the TTT tomorrow had they heard of him I would bet good money that more than 80% will say no!
The Pole is quite a senior rider though at 34 years of age and has been with Lampre for four years now. He has a good looking support team with him in Anacona, Serpa, Conti and Favilli and he is very capable of staying with the top GC men for most of these stages. They should lose some time in the TTT, but again as with Pozzo, this really shouldn't matter much if the climbing legs are good.
An excellent 6th in the Giro last year, it was just one of a number of good GC results for him in what was his best year to date probably as a pro. Top tens in Trentino, Catalunya and Tirreno-Adriatico, he proved he was worthy of team leader duties for this race and may well be looking to cement team leader role in the Giro too in the absence of injured Horner. I expect a big showing from him in his attempt to get the nod over Cunego, so at 12/1 with Bet365 I thought he was worth a small each-way bet.
I can't have Igor Anton, I just don't think he is good enough any more and the same goes for Ivan Basso. Bradley Wiggins rode brilliantly in Paris-Roubaix but I expect him to suffer in this and not play a part at the top of the GC battle.
Others at big prices that can go well - Fabio Aru is a rising star who finished 4th in Trentino in 2013 and he is possibly the one to take advantage if Scarponi is not at the top of his game and struggles. If Scarponi is feeling ok though Aru will be tasked with looking after him so I don't want to risk it at short prices of around 12/1. Scarponi has said in his pre-race interview that he is there to go for the GC but also to mentor and look after Aru who they are also sending to the Giro. That suggests to me that they don't really have confidence in either and are looking to this race as good training for the Giro.
Manuel Bongiorno has been riding well this year, notably in the Coppi e Bartali where he took a good 2nd place on a stage and 4th place overall. He did suffer from stomach problems in Amstel Gold though and it may take him a few days to regain his strength if he had gastro problems. I think he could be a wild outsider at 80/1 with Bet365 , far too short at 33/1 with Skybet. Leopold Kö nig could also go well at a big looking 40/1 with Bet365 - 20th in Trentino last year, he got better and better as the year went on, pulling off some great results including wins in stages of the Tour of California and the Vuelta. We haven't seen him in action though in two months so his form is unknown. I will wait maybe until after stage 2 to consider backing him.
So its looking like Pozzovivo's to lose I think, if he can't win this race he may never get a better chance. Cadel needs to go well if he wants to have any chance in the Giro and Niemiec could be the one to hover in the background and pick off some high stage placings and a top 3 overall.
Recommendations:
Domenico Pozzovivo - 2pts win at 7/4 with Paddy Power
Przemyslaw Niemiec - 1pt each-way at 12/1 with Bet365
Cadel Evans - 0.5pts each-way at 7/1 with Paddy Power .
Wait for in-play to consider König and Bongiorno.
