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- Published on Tuesday, 22 April 2014 01:30
Giro Del Trentino - Overall Preview and Stages
April 22nd to 25th, 2014
While some riders are fine tuning their Giro preparations at the Ardennes Classics, others head to Trentino for some mountain training. The four stages from the Tuesday to the Friday of this week offer a Team Time Trial and three tough stages with summit finishes.
The format is slightly different to last year's in that last year there was a short 128km stage 1a followed by a TTT stage 1b, but this year it is just a team time trial of 14.3kms. This should lead to small time gaps between the main teams going in to stages 2, 3 and 4 but the time gaps from the TT shouldn't really make any difference to the final standings with three tough stages to come and three summit finishes.
Last year's winer Vincenzo Nibali isn't here and his deputy will be Michele Scarponi, who is confident of being able to fill his shoes. There's a pretty high quality field here for it with Cadel Evans leading BMC, Domenico Pozzovivo leading AG2R, Ivan Basso leading Cannondale, Igor Anton leading Movistar and Bradley Wiggins leading Sky to name a few.
There are plenty of 'dark horses' here too from the lesser fancied teams like Niemiec for Lampre-Merida, Bongiorno and Pirazzi for Bardiani-CSF and Pellizoti for Androni.
The race is run through one of the most beautiful parts of Italy, skirting along the Dolomites just south of the Austrian border, which offers stunning scenery, steep climbs and the possibilty of snowy passes. First run in 1962, it lasted just two years before falling away again but was resurrected in 1979. It used to be a major Italian race for the local heroes preparing for the Giro but is now a far more international affair, attracting the sorts of names I mentioned above.
But even though it is being considered a Giro prep for some, the significant absentees are two of the Giro favourites Nairo Quintana and Joaquin Rodriguez. In fact out of the top 3 from last year, Nibali is absent, Santambrogio is suspended and Maxime Bouet, a surprise 3rd last year, is the only one appearing.
This is not a race for sprinters, and very few even bother coming here. In fact there has been no bunch sprint since 2010! The weather could play a key part too as they head up in to the mountains with rain and snow possibly forecast for later in the week, especially on the Queen stage on Friday.
The Route and Stage Predictions
Click on each tab to read stage previews and recommendations. Stage information and predictions will be added closer to each stage.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Riva del Garda to Arco - Team Time Trial, 13.4km
Tuesday April 22nd
As has been the tradition in recent years, the race will start with a time trial, and this year it is a team trial again. Starting from the shores of the beautiful lake Garda, they head south-east along or close to the lake before turning north. After about 5kms they take a sharp left to do a rectangular shape and back more or less on to where they came from before heading north in an S shape to the finish in Arco. It is dead flat, with barely a change in elevation the whole way and is an extremely fast course for the power men to drive their teams on.
There is little appeal in the betting on stage 1 though. Movistar are rightfully the hot favourites to win but at 4/9 I'll be passing on that bet. With Anton, Dowsett, Malori, Visconti and Szmyd they should win this comfortably and put Anton in to the first leader's jersey.
Second favourites are Sky at 13/4 and that's a terrible bet in my opinion. They may have Bradley Wiggins here but the rest of the squad is pretty average and geared towards the mountains with Deignan, Siutsou and Cataldo and ehat's more they only have 6 riders starting compared to every other team's eight. At 1/4 for the top three it's a dreadful value bet and I would happily lay that all day.
Third favourites are Rusvelo at 8/1 and I would be lying if I said I knew anything about them as I don't, with only Sergey Lagutin's name familiar to me from his time at Vacansoleil. But they must be a pretty useful TTT squad if they have been installed at such short odds, but I'm not going to be backing them.
4th Favourites are BMC at 12/1 and that doesn't appeal as a back bet either as I think they will be scrappig for 2nd place at best. The 5/6 for them to finish in Bet365's 'Top 3' market doesn't really appeal either though as their squad is pretty average too to say the least. Even Team Leader Cadel is not what he used to be and he never used to be a top TT'er.
Next up we have Astana and with Scarponi, Kessiakoff, Tiralongo and Agnoli in the team they are more likely to be troubling the top 3 places at 2/1. But at 2/1 do I want to risk it? Probably not. Race favourite Domenico Pozzovivo's AG2R are 125/1 to win and that is about right. Even with the unexpectedly talented TT'er Pozzo in the team they will be a fair way off Movistar I'd imagine.
So my recommendation for Stage 1 is to keep your money in your pocket as there is nothing of value from what I can see. If you are desperate for a bet in it though, Astana at 2/1 to finish in the top 3 might be all I'd recommend.
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Limone sul Garda to San Giacomo di Brentonico (164,5 km)
Wednesday April 23rd
Well after a surprise winner in BMC in the Team Time Trial on Tuesday, there are some interesting time gaps already from Cadel Evans. Big losers on the day were 4/9 shots Movistar who had a disaster in finishing off the podium in 4th place. NetApp Endura were the surprise package of the day though with a storming ride to finish in 2nd place, 4 seconds ahead of Sky who had a great ride considering there was only 6 of them and only 5 finished together.
On to stage 2 then and that nice warm-up on the shores of Lake Garda will be quickly forgotten as the hills loom in the distance on what should be a fast and tough stage. After a nice little jaunt along the lake for the best part of 75kms but then suddenly the road kicks up. There are two Cat 2 climbs along the way as they head north-east. First up is the Vigolo Vittaro which is 8.8kms at 6.1% and is followed by a bit of a platuea for about 20kms where they go off on a little loop before they double back on themselves and tackle the same climnb again but from the other side but this time it is only 5kms at 5.3% average.
Now they are heading back south-west again almost back to where they started from, but instead of heading back to the pleasant shores of the lake, they head skyward. After 149.5kms they start on to the final climb of the day on the way to the summit finish at San Giacomo di Brentonico. The climb is 15kms long at an average of 6.9% but there are some steep sections along the way that hit 9%, 9.6% and 9.8%. In the last 1500m it eases back to around 6% average with the last 500m only at 4.2%.
It could mean that it could come down to a small bunch sprint if the likes of Pozzovivo decide to keep their strength for the next two tougher stages. But with time gaps of over 30" already for some of the favourites they will have to go on the offensive whenever they can.
I think that the main protagonists should be more or less together as they head towards the finish. BMC will keep the pace high for Evans, but it won't be so high as to shred things completely. AG2R will help out too but I think we could be in for a small group fighting it out in the last kilometre.
I don't think the finishing 2kms are steep enough for Pozzovivo and it would be a brave move I think for him to go earlier than that on the steeper parts to try to hold on. As he is not the best sprinter in the favourites group, I will not be backing him at 2/1 for tomorrow's stage.
I think Cadel Evans will relish this finish though. Confidence high in the camp after the TT, a not too steep finishing hill, and no pressure to attack, he can let them scrap amongst themselves over the last few kms and then outsprint them at the finish. At 6/1 I think he is a good bet to be in the first three and a stage win is possible too.
Stefano Pirazzi won the mountains jersey in the Giro last year so he is clearly well able to climb but he hasn't really set the world on fire with his performances so far this year. A top 10 is likely but I don't think top 3 is possible.
Scarponi could do well in this finish like Evans, he is a canny battler who will sit in and wait and look for his 
opportunity in the last kilometre. I wouldn't be surprised if he went up the road with a km or so to go but equally I wouldn't be surprised to see him follow Evans wheel and sprint it out with him. 11/1 with Bet365 looks ok, but not good enough for me.
One that could go from maybe 5 or 6kms down the hill in an attempt to steal it could be Kanstantsin Siutsou of Team Sky. He could be the surprise move from Sky if the favourites are marking Wiggins and co and he might be let go. This is exactly what happened on stage 2 of this race last year when he attacked with 9km to go and only Pirazzi and Rolland were able to go with him, but he rode away from them to take a super stage victory. He is strong enough to give it a good go and he may well be let get a gap if the favourites mark each other out over the last 3km or so. At 50/1 with Paddy Power he is worth a small interest.
Finally, Leopold König is apparently here only to get some racing miles in to his legs, but why not start on the first day in? Confidence will be up in the team after that superb TT so he might well decide that if I am here to get some training in I may as well test myself and give it a go. We could see him launch off the front with 3-4kms to go and on a good day would be hard to catch. At 33/1 he is worth a small bet each-way too.
Overall though, it's a really hard stage to call, but I will stick some small bets on the following:
Cadel Evans - 1pt each-way at 6/1 with Paddy Power
Konstantin Svitsou - 0.5pts each-way at 50/1 with Paddy Power
Leopold König - 0.5pts each-way at 33/1 with Bet365.
Stage 2 Map
Stage 2 Profile
Stage 2 Key Climbs
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Mori to Roncone (loc. Pozza) (184,4 km)
Thursday 24th April
A tremendous battle at the top of the climb on Stage 2 saw Bardiani's Edoardo Zardini take a great stage win, having been on the attack with Pirazzi and Landa, where he proved the strongest and rode away from them to win solo. He was chased home by Niemiec, Evans and Duarte inside the last kilometre as they left the peloton in pursuit. Unfortunately for my each-way selection, Evans, he finished in 4th just out of the money. It was a good result for the overall though as Evans now leads with Niemiec in 3rd. I'm also happy to have stayed away from a ridiculously short Pozzovivo today, he finished in 5th, 23" down on Evans and Co.
Stage 3 sees the roads get steeper and harder as the riders zig-zag back and forth, getting deeper in to the Dolomites. They go up and down valleys, but in between cross the ridges over some pretty tough climbs on what is a very jagged looking profile. And then to cap it off they make one last sharp turn in Roncone and go straight up the very steep road to the finish.
It could be a day of carnage and it will be very hard for any one team, especially given the reserve squads most teams are here with, to control the race. It should lead to exciting, attacking racing and an 'every man for himself' last 50kms or so.
Things really start to kick off as they head towards the finishing town of Roncone on their northward run towards the little loop they are doing just south of the Lago de Ponte Pia. Heading towards Roncone they hit the Cat 2 climb of the Doone which averages a nasty 7.1% over 3kms. Then there's about 17kms of rolling roads before the next big test, the Cat 1 climb up to the Paso del Durone, which they approach from it's harder side. This is a real tough climb, reaching an altitude of 1039m as it snakes its way up over it's 7kms in length. It averages 8.3% but hits sections as high as 11 and 13% as you can see in the diagram on the right.
From there, they charge back down to the lakeside, dropping 600m in 10kms and with only 30kms to go to the finish we should see some attacks on the descent in an attempt to try to stretch things out and get a head start on the final climb.
The final climb is actually nearly 30km in length if you consider they start climbing from the valley floor and all the way to the finish. If the leaders have managed to stay together and there is no breakaway up the road with a big gap (which can't be ruled out on a stage like this) then the race should come down to the last 1500m up to the finish in Pozza. And where better place for Pozzavivo to stamp his claim on this race than in a place called Pozza!
With the final 2kms hitting slopes of 13-15% this is where the little Italian should come in to his own. I didn't expect him to win Stage 2 despite being the short priced favourite, but he let the chasers build up too big a lead before he went after them but still took 5th in the stage. I expect there to be lots of attacks going up the road, with the likes of Wiggins and Scarponi struggling to go with the real mountain goats, and maybe even Evans might struggle when Pozzo floors it. Pozzovivo will simply have to attack to gain time as he can't let it all ride on the final stage, he has lost too much time now. I make him a pretty confident selection for the stage, as long as no random break has managed to give them the slip on the frantic chase up and down valleys.
Others who can go well on these kinds of steep slopes - Fabio Duarte rode a brilliant stage 20 in the Giro last year with a similar sort of profile to Tre Cime de Lavaredo, taking 2nd just 17" behind Nibali. Behind him were two more Colombians in Uran and Betancur, then Aru, Pellizoti, Pozzovivo and Caruso, four riders who should also go well on this stage. Duarte showed he has good legs with his performance in stage 2 taking 3rd place ahead of Evans. He could well be top 3 material again. 6/1 is pretty short for the each-way bet though, I was hoping for 10s or better.
Fabio Aru could be the man for Astana on this stage as I can see Scarponi struggling on these gradients, indeed he may work hard for Aru during the stage to help set him up for a crack at the final climb (he finished 30" behind Aru on that stage in the Giro). Aru showed he had the legs on stage 2 beating Scarponi by 12" to finish in 6th, just behind Pozzovivo and I think he will be right up there again tomorrow - 14/1 might be worth a small each-way.
Pellizotti is getting on too at 36 and although he should be up there as they start the climb he might fade with 1km to go. Caruso is Cannondale's main man for this race and he too would have a shot at a good result with this finish, but I think he would have had a better chance if the stage didn't finish on the summit but maybe a km or two down the other side. He would have been hard to beat that way but may struggle with the really fast and light guys.
Bardiani-CSF have a few possible candidates for this stage, but it depends on how many of them actually make it to the base of the final climb with the favourites. Manuel Bongiorno is capable of a good finish as is Stefano Pirazzi, but he didn't have the best of days on Stage 2. We did see on Stage 2 though that Zardini is obviously in very good shape. Can he do it two days running though on such tough stages? I don't think so and I think we'll see him slide down the GC again. Androni Gioccatoli also have Sella and Rodriguez but I fear they might not make it to the final selection.
A dark horse tomorrow could be Sky's Philip Deignan. The Irishman is just coming back from a broken collarbone he sustained in a training ride in February. He was looking good at times in the Tour Down Under when riding hard for Richie Porte and he'll be looking to impress ahead of the big races to come. He is only in 25th place in the GC so could move up with a good showing tomorrow. He had a great year in 2013 in America riding for United Healthcare, winning the Tour of the Gila (and the mountains jersey) and had several other good results on the mountainous stages of the Tour of California and Tour de Beauce in Canada. This type of finish is one that he will like and at 150/1 he is worth a small investment.
One last outsider to keep an eye on is Amets Txurruka of Caja Rural. On his day he is capable of going up the road with the long breakaway and could well make it to the finish if things fall his way. Other candidates for the long break are Biel Kadri of AG2R (to make the other teams chase) Pardilla of MTN Qhubeka, Kessiakoff of Astana and maybe one of the Movistar guys, hard to pick which one, maybe Eros Capecchi!
Recommendations:
2pts win on Domenico Pozzovivo at 10/3 with Paddy Power
1pt win on Fabio Duarte at 6/1 with Paddy Power
0.5pts win on Fabio Aru at 14/1 with Paddy Power
0.25pts each-way on Philip Deignan at 150/1 with Paddy Power
Stage 3 Map
Stage 3 Profile
Stage 3 Key Climbs
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Val Daone – Monte Bondone (Trento) (175,0 km)
Friday April 25th
On to the final stage then and there is no let up in the punishment as today's stage is a tough 175km of up and down roads, culminating in the brutal climb to the finish in Monte Bondone.
They start in Val Daone and head up the valley going mostly downhill for the first 15kms or so, but it is sure to be frantic as riders try to get in the break of the day ahead of the first climb which looms after just 26kms, although they will have been going slightly uphill for 10kms before that already.
After passing through Roncone, Tione, Vigo Rendena and Pinzolo it climbs towards Madonna di Campiglio to reach the Cat 1 climb of Passo Campo Carlo Magno. This is 5.7% average to reach 1682m, the highest summit of the 2014 edition. It then descends towards Dimaro in the Val di Sole and the Val di Non, before reaching the intermediate sprint in Cloz and then the feedzone in Fondo. From there they descend for 36kms and then suddenly hit the not too inconsiderable obstacle of the 7% average Cat climb of the Palù di Giovo (hometown of the famous Moser and Simoni families). From the Cembra Valley the race reaches Lavis and enters the town of Trento by crossing the San Lorenzo bridge and on to the climax of the race, the Monte Bondone.
This legendary climb is 21.5 km long with 38 hairpin turns and has a 1463-meter altitude gain to reach a height of 1653 m. With inclines averaging 6.3% and up to 9% in places, this could well be where the final placings right through the top 10 could be decided. As you can see from the diagram on the right it is just a mess of switchbacks snaking its way up the mountain, making it one of the most spectacular climbs of the race, if not of the year. It's just a big shame then that no TV broadcaster is showing it live. YouTube highlights will have to do..
It is a real climbers climb, with a pretty steady, constant gradient of around 8% for all of the last 13km or so. There is a sting in the tail though as the last 500m average 9.6%, so it is likely we will see some big gaps by the end of the stage.
Cadel Evans has taken a giant step towards securing victory in the race after a super-impressive performance in stage 3, where he won from my tip Pozzovivo by 3 seconds. As Scarponi and Landa fell by the way-side in the last km I thought it was in the bag but Evans showed that he clearly is in fantastic shape. Barring a disaster though on the last stage it looks like my overall bet on Evans at 7/1 has a pretty good chance of landing.
My other bets were close but not good enough, Aru was beaten by two Astana team-mates - Landa and Scarponi in 3rd and 4th place but was close in 7th, Aru was 10th and Deignan is showing the legs are coming back on the day it was announced he will ride the Giro, he wasn't too far off the pace in 17th place.
Tomorrow's climb is a brute though and if we saw small gaps, but gaps nonetheless on today's stage, tomorrow could see large time gaps. It looks a stage where we will see the likes of Evans and Pozzovivo duke it out again I think, and in fact we could well see a very similar top 10 as today as they look the strongest riders in the race.
Pozzovivo though is pretty short at 7/4 - he got turned over today when a similar priced favourite to old man Evans, can he turn the tables tomorrow? I think he can for these reasons - I can see the two of them being the last two left at the front again in the last km or two. Evans will maybe be more concerned with just winning the GC and may just let him ride away in the last km or so if he knows the race is in the bag. No point in going too far in to the red if the race is won, he has the Giro in two weeks time.
7/4 is a very short price though, having watched the highlights tonight on Youtube (below) he looked the stronger of the two but Evans just seemed to ride away without much of a fight from him which was very disappointing. I think I'll wait until tomorrow morning to see if I can get a better price on him but for now I am just going to have a few small each-way bets on Deignan again (will be on a high after Giro selection, this steadier gradient will suit him better) at 150/1 and Machado at 50/1 (rode very well today, finishing in 8th).
Igor Anton could go well too at 14/1, he got caught for speed when Pozzo and Cadel went for it with about 2km to go but was flying at the finish and almost caught Scarponi for 4th place.
Recommendations
Philip Deignan - 0.4pts each-way at 150/1 with Paddy Power
Tiago Machado - 0.5pts each-way at 50/1 with Bet365
Igor Anton - 0.5pts each-way at 14/1 with Paddy Power
Stage 4 Map
Stage 4 Profile
Stage 4 Key Climbs
Overall Contenders and Favourites
If there ever was a chance for Domenico Pozzovivo to win a stage race then this is it. The course should suit him down to the ground and the opposition is pretty average to be fair. He will lose time in the opening TTT despite his deceptively good TT skills himself, but it shouldn't really bother him. The time gaps may be only 20-30" to his main rivals and with time bonuses available on each stage finish then he is well capable of wiping that deficit out with a few decent stages.
We may see him gain time on all bar a handful of the favourites who should finish with or very close to him on Stage 2 but I think it could well be on Stage 3 he makes his move rather than on the Queen Stage, Stage 4. He likes it when it's steep and the finishing climb on Stage 3 to Roncone is perfect for him in my opinion. The climb itself is around 30kms long if you take it from the valley after the descent off the Passo del Durone but as they approach the summit there is a little plateau of around 4kms before they start up the final ramp to the finish. The pace will have been high up to this point and so there will probably only be 10-20 of the main contenders still in contention.
But it's the final ramp where we could see Pozzo skip away from them. In the last 2.5kms they hit 15% slopes then back to 10.5% and back up to 13.5% for the last 500m. He could put 30" or more in to the likes of Evans and Scarponi here. Then on the Queen stage, depending on whether he is defending a lead or needing to grab a few more seconds then he is capable of doing both.
Second favourites around the 7/1 mark are Cadel Evans and Michele Scarponi and they are two quite similar riders nowadays. Punchy at times to try the occassional attacks, found wanting at other times when the nippier younger generation do their thing. Cadel was super in the Tour Down Under, landing a great bet for me at 10/1 on stage 3 up Corkscrew Hill, and then came to Europe and rode well in Strade Bianche but disappointed in Tirreno, we barely saw him at all as Contador and Kwiatkowski were stealing the show, pulling out before the final stage when over 30 minutes down.
He bounced back though with a good showing in the Pays Basque to finish 7th overall and put in some good work in the uphill stages. He should be there or thereabouts for sure as he is looking in good shape this year and the vibes are good coming from BMC (and the camp should be buzzing this week with Gilbert's run of results). I would think he is top 6 material, possibly even top 3 and he is worth backing each-way at 7/1 with Paddy Power, he is as short as 4/1 with Skybet and 9/2 with Bet365. Bookwalter, Oss, Eijssen and Morabito are on the Giro squad so they'll be looking to make a good impression for their captain too.
Scarponi has come off his traditional high-intensity, high-altitude training camp that he does every year around this time and the former winner (2011) comes here as team leader with Nibali absent. He has podiumed also in 2010 but he has also had some terrible results here so he really is a hard one to predict what way he will go. I feel though that he is not a good top 3 candidate and I will not be backing him at 7/1. He did ok at Andalucia and Tirreno-Adriatico but finished in 9th place and I can see a similar sort of result here. He lost over four minutes to the leaders in the final stage of the Criterium to l'Ospedale and that could well happen on stages 3 and 4 again.
Przemyslaw Niemiec is a 'dark horse' in this race, if you could call the 4th or 5th favourite a dark horse, but I guess if you asked all the fans who will turn up to watch the TTT tomorrow had they heard of him I would bet good money that more than 80% will say no!
The Pole is quite a senior rider though at 34 years of age and has been with Lampre for four years now. He has a good looking support team with him in Anacona, Serpa, Conti and Favilli and he is very capable of staying with the top GC men for most of these stages. They should lose some time in the TTT, but again as with Pozzo, this really shouldn't matter much if the climbing legs are good.
An excellent 6th in the Giro last year, it was just one of a number of good GC results for him in what was his best year to date probably as a pro. Top tens in Trentino, Catalunya and Tirreno-Adriatico, he proved he was worthy of team leader duties for this race and may well be looking to cement team leader role in the Giro too in the absence of injured Horner. I expect a big showing from him in his attempt to get the nod over Cunego, so at 12/1 with Bet365 I thought he was worth a small each-way bet.
I can't have Igor Anton, I just don't think he is good enough any more and the same goes for Ivan Basso. Bradley Wiggins rode brilliantly in Paris-Roubaix but I expect him to suffer in this and not play a part at the top of the GC battle.
Others at big prices that can go well - Fabio Aru is a rising star who finished 4th in Trentino in 2013 and he is possibly the one to take advantage if Scarponi is not at the top of his game and struggles. If Scarponi is feeling ok though Aru will be tasked with looking after him so I don't want to risk it at short prices of around 12/1. Scarponi has said in his pre-race interview that he is there to go for the GC but also to mentor and look after Aru who they are also sending to the Giro. That suggests to me that they don't really have confidence in either and are looking to this race as good training for the Giro.
Manuel Bongiorno has been riding well this year, notably in the Coppi e Bartali where he took a good 2nd place on a stage and 4th place overall. He did suffer from stomach problems in Amstel Gold though and it may take him a few days to regain his strength if he had gastro problems. I think he could be a wild outsider at 80/1 with Bet365 , far too short at 33/1 with Skybet. Leopold Kö nig could also go well at a big looking 40/1 with Bet365 - 20th in Trentino last year, he got better and better as the year went on, pulling off some great results including wins in stages of the Tour of California and the Vuelta. We haven't seen him in action though in two months so his form is unknown. I will wait maybe until after stage 2 to consider backing him.
So its looking like Pozzovivo's to lose I think, if he can't win this race he may never get a better chance. Cadel needs to go well if he wants to have any chance in the Giro and Niemiec could be the one to hover in the background and pick off some high stage placings and a top 3 overall.
Recommendations:
Domenico Pozzovivo - 2pts win at 7/4 with Paddy Power
Przemyslaw Niemiec - 1pt each-way at 12/1 with Bet365
Cadel Evans - 0.5pts each-way at 7/1 with Paddy Power .
Wait for in-play to consider König and Bongiorno.
