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Published on Tuesday, 11 July 2017 19:10

TDF 2017 Stage 11

Eymet to Pau

Wed 12th July, 202kms 

Well the Tour de France wouldn't be the Tour de France without a visit to Pau! The 3rd most visited town in France by the Tour, after Paris and Bordeaux, Pau is seeing the Tour stop by for the 68th time in it's history. 

Although it visits regularly, more recently it has been a departure town rather than an arrival town, and you have to go back to 2010 to find the last time a stage finished there. And what a strange stage it was, with Pierrick Fedrigo winning it in a sprint from a small group that included Lance Armstrong and Chris Horner.. It was a marked contrast to this stage, as they came over some massive mountains that day, including the Col d'Aubisque, and Fedrigo took it brilliantly after they caught the solo breaker Carlos Barredo with just 1km to go.. 

This stage looks nothing like that though - in fact, it's yet another boring looking profile that's just a flat run south for 203kms. It should end in a sprint, unless the sprinters teams get it badly wrong. 

Stage 10 Review

Well, we got our sprint, Kittel was imperious yet again and landed his 4th stage win of the race in the easiest manner yet. So much for the worries that he would be rusty after the rest day, he once again came from about 20th place with 400m to go to winning it by about 2 bike lengths. A number of sprinters got it badly wrong again and are being made to look like rank amateurs up against Kittel. Lotto-Soudal and Greipel tried taking it up from about 400m out, he didn't even finish in the top 10 after being in a great position going through the last bend. 

Bouhanni was never in it either, he finished down in 6th and Michael Matthews didn't even get in a blow, finishing in 13th. The only sprinters to come out of it with any credit, besides Marcel of course, are Dan McLay who looked strong, but just started his sprint with 350m to go, he joked about it on Twitter after that the next time he'll start a lot closer. He could go well next time if so. John Degenkolb is starting to motor now though and did the right thing in jumping on Kittel's wheel as he swept through, that slipstream pulled him clear of the rest to take 2nd. And Dylan Groenewegen came there but suddenly ran out of gas and had to sit down, but still held on for 3rd.

And another rider who seriously impressed today was Rudiger Selig, getting up for 4th, to cap off a great day for the Germans with 3 in the top 4. Cimolai was well beaten by McLay, but it was the only bright spot in a poor day, with Kristoff being beaten by Groenewegen and Matthews finishing 3 places behind EBH, EBH only managing 10th, but it was still better than the very disappointing 13th for Matthews. It looks all over now for Green, 50pts for Kittel and Greipel and Matthews outside the top 10 amazingly. And who's going to stop Kittel from racking up win no. 5 tomorrow??

And of course the news after was the demotion, fine and time penalty for Bouhanni for his punch on Jack Bauer in the closing stages of the race, it's hard to understand why he didn't get chucked out for that, and if not for that, for his dick move in the last kilometre where he repeatedly checked where Sabatini was behind him before pulling out of his lead train to try to block Sabatini from coming through. It looked like he couldn't care less about his own result, as long as he tried to stop QS from winning. What a moron. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about it, a 203km run south from Eymet to Pau, with barely anything worth noting along the route. There is a Cat 4 climb along the way, but it's just 1.2kms long, then a slight rise for 40kms before a downhill run for the last 12kms. The finish might be a bit interesting though, they come charging down a gentle hill, speeds will be over 60kmph, and suddenly they hit two roundabouts between 5kms and 4kms to go. There's another with 2.2kms to go and yet another with 800m to go. The roads are pretty wide though, so I think it would take someone getting it badly wrong on a bend to cause big trouble. 

After that last big roundabout with 800m to go, they take a left and then hit a 500m finishing straight. 

Contenders and Favourites

I really don't think there is much to say here, Kittel wins again tomorrow, no one can touch him, but 4/7 is way too short to be taking on. Degenkolb got closest today, but he's inconsistent and may not have it all his own way tomorrow like he did today. Greipel said afterwards he was 'embarrassed' by his own performance in the sprint, as the team had actually done an ok job. It will be all about biding your time tomorrow on that 500m finishing straight and trying to time it better. But you can't trust him to get it right. 

Dan McLay was very impressive today and seems to be getting stronger as the race goes on. If he can time it better tomorrow too, he could pull off another result like today. Nacer Bouhanni I think will be sulking away in the pack tomorrow, I can't see him coming out and winning, or even hitting the top 3, although he could use the anger and frustration in a more positive way tomorrow. 

Alexander Kristoff got a great leadout today, but he blew it, only managing 5th in the end, these long, flat sprints are not really his forte. And as for Michael Matthews, he was bitterly disappointed with what happened to him in the sprint, I'm not sure yet what happened, but he posted this straight after the stage. I'm not risking it on him again tomorrow either. Selig, Vanspeybrouck, Colbrelli, they could be anywhere in the top 15 but it really is like drawing straws it feels at the moment with all these sprinters, there is no consistent line of form with them, except for Kittel, who just keeps winning. 

Right now it's a no-bet day for me, I will take a look again later on and add some matchbets if any catch my eye, but they are pretty much coin tosses at the moment as well. I'd rather spend my time tonight studying the upcoming stages to be honest. 

Update - 23:15 - So I've watched the replay again tonight and I thought Lotto-Soudal deserved better than they got. Greipel was puffing and blowing his cheeks, he just didn't have the legs today. But they were the only team with riders en masse and in line and if they can time it a bit better tomorrow, surely Greipel will do better. And he's 8/1 with 365, which just about swung it for me to have a nibble. I've added matchbets below too. Also, the 1.82 on Kittel on Betfair was too tempting, I've had 4pts on that too. 

Recommendations

1pt e/w on Andre Greipel at 8/1 with 365

4pts win on Marcel Kittel at 1.82 on Betfair

ADDED IN-PLAY

Groenewegen to finish 4th to 9th - 5/6 and Matthews to finish 4th to 9th - 10/11..  2pts on each with 365

Matchbets

Matthews to beat Colbrelli and Vanspeybrouck to beat Pasqualon - 2pts on the double at 6/4

Greipel to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 8/11

McLay to beat Selig - 2pts at 6/5 with 365