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Published on Tuesday, 19 May 2015 22:10

Giro d'Italia St 11

Forlì to Imola (Autodromo Ferrari)

Wednesday 20th May, 153kms 

Start your engines..! We head on a short run in a W shape from Forli to the Ferrari racetrack, where they hit the Tre Monti, not three, but four times. They do three laps of a 15km circuit at the end of the stage and the hilly course probably counts out a lot of sprinters on a day for the puncheurs. 

What an awful day today. One of my most disappointing in a long time. So many things went wrong it's hard to believe they all happened in one day. First off, it was clear from early in the day the Pelucchi was not going to be involved today and was going to really hurt me. He apparently was still suffering from the crash he was involved in on stage 2 and could only ride 10kms on it yesterday as it had now developed an infection. There were even reports that he may not even finish the stage..

And sure enough, not long in to it he jacked it in. It's bad enough that it did happen, but this evening IAM tweeted a picture of a big, gaping, infected wound on his ankle (right). How on earth they thought he'd be able to ride like that I'll never know. They should have pulled him out yesterday or this morning for his welfare and we'd have got our stakes back at least. It left me fuming, especially as Hofland was down in 17th, I'm sure Pelucchi would have beaten that if not injured. An injury like that should not have been ridden on, he should have known better, as should the doctor.

Then, it started to become clear that Matthews was not going to be sprinting today, he had said so in a start-line interview, so that bet tanked as well. OGE were so uninterested in how today went that even Simon Clarke stopped to give Richie Porte a wheel near the finish when he punctured. I'll come back to that..

And then, because everyone assumed Lotto-S would bring back the break for Greipel, no teams wanted to help out and the strong break of five (then four) Italians managed to stay away to fight it out. Incredibly, with 40kms to go it was just over 2'30" but they couldn't close a very catchable gap. No sprint for Greipel and a crappy day was almost done.

Finally we get to Porte. So he gets a puncture with less than 10km to go and not a team-mate in sight. So little support had he around him that Simon Clark ended up giving him his front wheel in an amazing act of friendship and sportsmanship. Porte still lost 47" to Aru and Contador, but worse was to come. The UCI decided to enforce a rule that says you cannot get assistance from a rider on another team and hit him with a 2 minute penalty. It absolutely sucks and has ruined the Giro now, hard to see Porte pull that back now.. But the bookies aren't taking any chances, they ridiculously have him at just 8/1, and is still as short as 4/1. I mean he's good, but to pull back that sort of time? He should be 20/1.

Contador is now 4/9 and Aru is 3/1. Uran is interesting at 33/1, Landa at 40/1. It will be interesting to see if there is any sort of solidarity tommorrow, plenty are suggesting gifting Porte 2 minutes, or riders swapping wheels to get a 2 minute penalty.. Fat chance of it happening though I'm afraid. So, sorry about today, It was a bad day for so many bets, at least Reza beat Bole to prevent a complete whitewash, I also managed to back Ruffoni to finish 4th to 9th at evens in-play with Bet365 for 2pts which helped a little too, but a poor day for the P&L.

The Route

This will be an interesting stage. It's short, but full of punchy little hills that should see furious action right from the flag drop. There are no fewer than nine climbs on the stage, starting just 16kms in with the 8km, Cat 3 climb of the Passo del Trebbio, which averages around 6% with a max of 11%. They crest that with just 24kms gone and for the next 46kms it is just up and down over four more hills, La Valetta being one of the hardest, averaging 9.8% for 2.7kms, hitting a max of 14%.

After 95kms they enter the Imola circuit at the Variante Alta chicane and they start the three laps of the 'Tre Monti' circuit. Some of the 15kms lap is on the circuit, but most of it is outside the circuit as they head up to the climb of the Tre Monti. This is a shortish climb at just 4.4kms, averaging 4.1%, but briefly hits a max of 10%. It then descends for 6.5kms to the final kilometre, entering the circuit again at the Rivazza bend, 850m from the line. 

The finishing straight is 650m long and is wide and perfectly smooth so should make for a very fast sprint finish for those who are still left at the front of the race. 

Contenders and Favourites

This stage is a tough one to work out because the finish of the race is perfect for punchy, classics type riders like Gilbert and Gerrans but the start of the race is quite hard and there will be a frantic opening 35kms in an effort to get in the break of the day. If a strong break of good climbers go they could just stay away all day. Astana and Tinkoff-Saxo will probably be happy to take another day off and just roll along for the day, not much point in racing to the end of this stage as the finish isn't hard enough for attacks from the GC favourites to make any difference.

The bookies have priced it up as if it's going to be a reduced bunch sprint amongst the Matthews-type punchy sprinters, but I'm not so sure. Let's start with an attempt to try to pick out the possible breakaway candidates in the Giro lottery! Cannondale-Garmin were left ruing the outcome of stage 9, at one point they had two men in the break, Slagter went up the road and my 50/1 man Hesjedal was sitting in waiting to try something later. As it turned out they ended up with nothing as Slagter cracked and Hesjedal never got a chance to do anything. I think both of them could be up for it again on a stage like this, but again I am going to favour Hesjedal as the start of the stage is hard and suits him more I think. If the race came back together with a few laps of the finishing circuit to go, Slagter could be one to attack and skip away to try to win the stage. they are both 33/1 but I prefer Hesjedal at that price. Since starting this though BetVictor have gone 80/1, that has to be taken.

Simon Geschke did great on Sunday for us, taking 3rd place, I could see him take off again.  He has vowed to try to honor and defend the mountains jersey for as long as he can and this is a perfect chance for him to pick up a few more points. And if he can get to the finish with a break he has a pretty good finishing kick as you saw Sunday when he comfortably took the sprint for 3rd. 66/1 is no 150/1 but is the price he went off at on Sunday and is worth a small bet each-way.

Astana will probably put a man in the break, can Tiralongo pull it off again? It's possible, he showed some fantastical power and strength for a 38 year old to rapidly reel in Slagter and then just ride away from him. Today could be a day for Luis Leon Sanchez though. He has been pretty quiet so far, working for Aru, but he did get up to take 9th in the stage to Sestri Levante after leading Tiralongo to 5th. He has been remarkably consistent since with placings of 44, 49, 53, 54, 54, 56 and 68 on stages of all sorts of varying terrain. He could get in the break and could attack on the final climb and fly down the descent to the finish, he's a great descender. 100/1 will do me nicely with PP.

Katusha have had a pretty poor Giro so far considering how people were fearing they would tear it up given their season so far. Lagutin's 4th place on stage 2 has been the best they have managed so far, and they don't have many top 20 places even. Can they get someone away today? Possibly, but guessing who is almost impossible. Zakarin possibly, but he might save himself for a more mountainous day. 

Sylvain Chavanel and Philippe Gilbert could like this stage too, and Orica are sure to try to put someone in the break, Simon Clarke is a likely candidate, he can climb well enough to get away at the start and OGE's presence in a break will mean that it has more chance of surviving, OGE won't have to chase then. There's also the chance they try to get Weening and Gerrans in the break, Gerrans should like this course, it's a little bit Liege-Bastogne-Liegey, it's just a question of whether he can get in the break. If he does, he probably wins. If they miss out on the break they may well chase as they have possible winners in Gerrans and Matthews.

I mentioned Gilbert and he will be very much at home in the rolling Ardennes-like hills, the final time up the Tre Monti could be the perfect launching pad for him to attack. But BMC have a few other options, with Burghardt and Kung two who could get up the road today. 

I was thinking Adam Hansen might be another guy perfect for this profile, but I think he has other tasks this week. First, he'll be tired after pulling hard for Greipel yesterday, and with other possible sprint stages this week he might be asked to hold back a little. But they also have Lars Bak or Stig Broeckx who could try their hand in the break.

Tom Boonen's debut Giro has been a bit of a disappointment to date, we haven't really seen him at all. The start of this stage might be a bit tough for him but if he can get in the break and get over he first 75 or so he would have a good chance at the finish. Etixx-QS could also send Betancur up the road again, he seems to have got his racing verve back again, attacking two days in a row. Boonen is a tempting looking 200/1! Betancur is as low as 25/1, but is 40/1 with Coral, I think that's a bit low, even if he gets to the finish he'd be beaten to the line by a few I think, the final hill is not hard enough to drop all the rest, even if he was at 100%.

After that it's hard to narrow down what could be any of about 100 guys who could get up the road. Bardiani will be buzzing after Boem's win today, FDJ have been anonymous in this race, Bert de Backer could go for Giant-Alpecin, Vandewalle for Trek, Kruiswijk, Tjallingi or Keizer for Lotto-Jumbo, Movistar are sure to have a few guys interested, but it's hard to know who - Izagirre, Visconti, Intxausti, Amador or Anton could all get in the break, if I was to pick one, I'd go for Intxausti, although he might save his legs for later in the race again in the bigger mountains, so I might leave them.

So there are my picks for the break - can it possibly be another break away winner? There have been far too many break away wins so far, far more than is probably statistically normal, today being another example of a shock break winner. If it does come back together though, Matthews should be a strong favourite, he took it easy today and said he has his eye on this stage instead. Visconti, Modolo, Felline or Ulissi could fight it out. 

Recomendations

0.3pts each-way on Simon Geschke at 66/1 with PP

0.4pts each-way on Ryder Hesjedal at 80/1 with BetVictor

0.3pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 100/1 with PP

0.75pts each-way on Simon Gerrans at 14/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Visconti to beat Caruso, Gilbert to beat Ulissi, Aru to beat Contador - 2pts on the treble pays 2/1.

Gilbert to beat Ulissi - 2pts at 4/6