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Published on Thursday, 04 May 2017 00:13

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Hat-trick time for Nibali?

Vincenzo Nibali was just 6/4 for this race last year, a price that looked terrible value when he sat in 4th place with just four stages to go, almost 5 minutes behind Kruijswijk.. but the rest is 'Storia' as they say in Italy.

It was an incredible end to the Giro, where Kruisjwijk went from something like 100/1 pre-race to 1/5 favourite, to finishing outside the podium places, and Nibali traded at 75/1 before going on to win it. Mikel Landa had started as the 5/2 second favourite but he got sick on the rest day and was dropped in the opening kilometres of stage 10, before abandoning shortly after. Esteban Chaves was a massive 50/1 before the race started and traded to odds-on too when he led by 44" with two stages to go. Alejandro Valverde was 6/1 third favourite and he obliged each-way backers by taking 3rd with a solid display throughout.

So who's going to be the Kruijswijk or Chaves of this year? Will Quintana cruise it? Let's have a look.. 

Contenders for Pink

Nairo Quintana – 11/10 favourite (Skybet).

Is this finally the year we see Quintana really strike it gold? He is gunning for the Giro/Tour double, a feat that is only about 9/1 for him to pull off, something that has only been done seven times in total, the last time by Marco Pantano in 1998. But be that as it may, it looks like he may well be going to France this year with one part under his belt and with confidence levels sky-high. Well, that is the conclusion you would deduce from the fact he is odds-on in places to win a three-week brute of a Grand Tour, it’s almost like he only has to turn up and he’ll win it. It’s a crazy short price, but is it worth backing? Let’s look at the pros first.

Former winner of the race in the only time he has ever ridden it (2014), he then switched his focus to the Tour de France and finished 2nd and 3rd in the last two years. If he’d gone to the Giro in the last two years he may well be going for a fourth win on the trot, which would be something he’ll be remembered a lot more for than finishing 2nd or 3rd in the Tour..

But we all know the TDF is the seeming be-all-and-end-all of achieving cycling greatness, and at 27 years of age, he may well be maturing to a rider who could well win it for the next five years. Winner in Valenciana, winner in Tirreno-Adriatico (with a key stage win in both to secure victory), his preparation has gone according to plan so far and he’s looking really good. And just last weekend he won the 'Queen' stage of the Vuelta Asturias three-day race, albeit against pretty average opposition.. 

The amount of time-trialling here will not bother him too much - despite his diminutive stature he is excellent against the clock and neither are overly long. The last week will be where he will likely destroy his rivals though, he tends to get stronger in the last week of three-week races, just when everyone else will be getting fatigued. Stages 18, 19, 20 and the TT in 21 will decide this race and unfortunately for his rivals, he’s probably licking his lips at the prospect of this end to the race. And it’s not just those stages, but stages 4, 9 and 14 could also see him pull out time on his rivals, the famous Pantani climb to Oropa on stage 14 may well be where we see him lay down a big marker.

He will have a strong team with him, with Andrey Amador, his brother Dayer, Gorka Izagirre, Winner Anacona and Alex Dowsett there to look after him. Anacona, Dayer, Izagirre will be of particular help in the mountains, they’ll be able to control things long enough to give him his shot at an attack later in the race.

Against him? Well, not a lot. You do have to bear in mind though that he does have issues with sickness and allergies etc and the weather forecast isn’t brilliant for the Giro, so it is possible that just when he needs to be getting stronger towards the end of the race he might come down with something. And everyone knows that they have to beat him, so he could come under attack from all sides and someone some day might slip away and get a nice gap.

Should we be worried that he was unable to shake off a Conti team rider in Raul Alaracon of the W52/FC Porto team in Asturias? In failing to do so he lost the overall GC to him.. Maybe, he had been so dominant up until that point in other Queen stages so far this year.. but I'm not too worried, as I'm sure he's not, it was just a training race to tune up and maybe he didn't want to show his hand too much. 

And anything can happen – crashes, punctures, bad weather and wind splits, lots to make you nervous about taking a 50/50 bet over three weeks. But it will take either an extraordinary performance, or a problem for Quintana I think for him to be beaten, he looks rock-solid.

Vincenzo Nibali – 11/2

Nibali lost a friend and former team-mate with the tragic passing of Michele Scarponi, a man who waited for Nibali when he had a stage win at his mercy in the 2016 Giro. The directive to wait helped Nibali to overall victory, an act that saw Nibali state that Scarponi ‘deserved a statue’ for what he did. They may no longer have been team-mates (but word is Nibali tried to bring him to Bahrain Merida), but I think there’s probably few in the race with more motivation to do well for Scarponi’s memory than Nibali.

And of course he has a chance of winning it too, regardless of motivation. 3rd in 2010, 2nd in 2011, 1st in 2013 and 2016, he has real pedigree in this race. He was fortunate of course in the way the race came to him in 2016 and he seemed like a man reborn at the end of the race when it needed it most, but he did what was needed and was a man possessed in the penultimate stage. When he won in 2013 it was a far cosier affair for him, winning by nearly 5 minutes from Rigo Uran, with Evans nearly 6 minutes back in 3rd.

The next two years he focused on the Tour, winning it in 2014 after the abandonment of Froome and Contador and finished 4th in 2015, behind Froome, Quintana and Valverde, taking a fine stage win in La Toussuire on the way. He’s not been overly busy this season in his preparation, and up until Croatia it wasn’t looking great for him at all, with poor results in Abu Dhabi, Strade Bianche and Tirreno. But he found some form in Croatia, albeit against pretty low-level opposition, winning the GC from Jaime Roson, but it’s not like he was winning Pais Vasco, Paris-Nice or Catalunya.

He isn’t scheduled to ride the Tour, and the Giro’s 5th stage finishes in his home town of Messina, so he is sure to be fired up for this, but is he really going to be able to beat Nairo? They would be similarly matched in the TTs – as recent clashes in TTs show.. In the Tour last year there was 13” and 17” between them in the two TTs. In Romandie in 2015 there was 2” between them and in San Luis in 2014 there was 4” between them. 

So it will come down to the mountains, and I fear that Nibali not only lacks the punch to go with Nairo’s repeated attacks, but he might also lack the strength in depth in his team to help him out when he needs them most. Javi Moreno, Gio Visconti and Kanstantsin Siutsou are good climbers, but a bit lightweight and they may well be dropped before the final acts of the big stages. He might be good enough for a podium spot though you’d think, 6/1 is just about acceptable for an each-way.    

Steven Kruisjwijk – 10/1

Steven Kruisjwijk will never forget the Colle Dell’Agnello, that’s for sure.. As he crested the top of the climb he held a comfortable lead and was climbing comfortably with his main rivals. He tried to grab a bite to eat just as Nibali attacked with Chaves, and in the panic for a few seconds he lost control and with it the race. It was the start of a terrible end to the season for him, as he failed to shine at the Olympics and crashed out in a freak bollard incident on stage 6 of the Vuelta, breaking his collarbone and ending his season.

He’s had an ok start to the year too, 8th in Valenciana, 21st in Abu Dhabi, and then got sick in Paris-Nice, which saw him abandon after stage 6. He recovered in time for Catalunya and moved up the GC during the race with some solid rides, eventually finishing in 7th.

He also finished 7th in the Giro back in 2015 before his 4th in 2016 and he has vowed to come back here to try to win, as he has unfinished business in this race. "I can't hide my ambition, everybody will understand that I aim for a spot on the final podium." He spent three weeks in Teide at altitude training before heading to Yorkshire, but he got caught up in the crash on stage 2 and abandoned in order to be 100% for the Giro.

It isn’t a bad team that he has here, with some very experienced and powerful riders with him, like Stef Clement, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Bram Tankink and Martijn Keizer, and they will do their best to keep him in contention for as long as possible. He may well manage to sneak away for a stage win some day if Quintana shadow-boxes with Nibali and if he can stay with the likes of Nibali on most days he should come close to the podium too.

He’s not a bad time triallist at all and he has been getting better in recent seasons, with a 2nd place in the uphill TT last year in the Giro and 5th in the TT in 2015. He has a bone to pick with this race and will be highly motivated to right some wrongs from last year. He was 13/2 not so long ago and that didn't really appeal to me, but the 10/1 he is now is more interesting.. 

Tom Dumoulin – 14/1

Dumoulin is one of a gaggle of riders around 14/1, and he is one who will be revelling in the fact that there is so much time trialling in the race. He could easily take a minute, maybe even a lot more off of the pure climbers in the TTs and I think there is a great chance for him to pull on the Pink Jersey after the 39km TT on stage 10. How long can he hang on to it? Maybe only until stage 14’s summit finish to Oropa, but as it’s just one climb in the whole day, he might be able to hang in there and hang on to it for a bit longer, possibly until maybe stage 16 or 18.

We saw last year just how well he goes in Italy, winning the opening TT in Holland and wearing the Pink Jersey for six out of the opening seven days, just interrupted by Kittel on stage 3. He also climbed really well on the stage 6 finish to Roccaraso to extend his lead in the GC, but saddle sores struck him down in the TT on stage 8's Strade Bianche roads to Arezzo and dropped out of the top ten, but he kept going until stage 15 when he abandoned, whilst well out of contention. 

How will he fare in the mountains? Well, he could do alright.. On the brute of a finish up to Terminillo in the recent Tirrreno stage he finished in 6th, just 41” behind a rampaging Quintana, but ahead of the likes of Pozzovivo, Landa and Pinot. He also put in some great climbing performances last year, including winning a stage in the TDF up to Andorra Arcalis. He has lost a shed-load of weight off of what was already a pencil-thin body and if he has kept most of his power and stamina he should be able to grind it out on all bar the steepest of climbs, so he could be a lively shot for the podium here too.

Geraint Thomas – 14/1

Geraint Thomas is the first of the Sky double act, with Landa also available at 14/1, which is a bit crazy when you think about it, they can’t have the exact same chance of winning it.. But like many fans, the bookies are having trouble figuring out who will be the team leader, and who indeed will finish top in that matchbet.

Thomas is going for the GC in a Grand Tour for the first time in his career and his preparation has gone pretty well for it so far. He decided to skip the spring Classics in order to prepare properly for it, and notched up a fine 5th place in Tirreno as well as winning the Tour of the Alps from Thibaut Pinot. He took a stage win and a 2nd place in each of those races too, showing some fine climbing form and his usual sharp attacking instinct.

He did though get caught out along with Froome on stage 6 of Catalunya when Valverde’s group of 50 or so put more than 26 minutes in to the peloton by the end of the stage and it saw him plummet from 3rd place after stage 4 down to 32nd by the end. It was a day to forget for Thomas and the rest of Sky, but I’m sure they won’t lose too much sleep over it.

He will go well in both TTs, he should be similar, or possibly marginally better than the top two favourites, and he is punchy and experienced enough to possibly steal a stage and the bonus time along with it when his GC opponents least expect it, for example on the finish in to Bergamo on stage 15.

He will be tested to the limit on the big climbs again of course by Quintana, but he climbed very well in the ToTA and was the closest to Quintana on one of the biggest climbs of the year so far to Terminillo in Tirreno-Adriatico. But can he stay with a Quintana in full flight? I am not sure.. I think he will not be far off him, but he won’t stay with him on every climb when Quintana presses the button. And Thomas has a habit of having an off-day, a crash, or a sickness every now and then, a potentially wet and cold Giro might cause him problems. I think he might just miss out on a podium spot. 

Mikel Landa - 14/1

Landa, as I said earlier is also 14/1, as we are left guessing as to who will be captain out on the road.. It may come down to who starts off the best on maybe Mount Etna as to who they will work for after that. There certainly seemed to be rivalry between them at the finish of stage 3 of the ToTA when Thomas got a little gap on Landa, only for Landa to chase him down all the way to the line and only just miss out on mugging him for the win. There was real intent from Landa to try to beat Thomas, almost as if they were fighting for team leadership here.

Landa has had a mixed start to the year with 6th in the Ruta del Sol, but a poor show in Tirreno saw him finish down in 31st and then he abandoned in Catalunya on the day that Thomas and Froome lost all that time to Valverde and co. apparently it was all down to positioning and just being in the wrong place at the wrong time when the split came on the descent, but it's worrying they couldn't pull back the leaders and lost so much time. In the ToTA he didn’t have a great opening stage and lost 26”, enough time to see him manage no better than 5th overall by the finish despite his 2nd place to Thomas on stage 3.

Landa is a former podium finisher here of course, finishing 3rd in 2015 behind Contador and Aru, winning two of the hardest stages in the race one after the other on stages 15 & 16. He was given the freedom to go on the attack with the demise of Porte on stage 15, but he was very impressive that year.

They will have a very strong team here with them though, it’s highly likely we will see them do a lot of the pace-setting and controlling on the key stages. Phil Deignan, Diego Rosa, Sebastian Henao, Vasil Kiryienka, Salvatore Puccio and Kenny Elissonde are a powerful and experienced bunch of lads and they’ll get them in to good positions for the crucial parts of the key stages. And if it goes awry for them before the end Rosa or Elissonde could try for stage wins themselves.

Thibaut Pinot – 14/1

Thibaut started the season in Valenciana and on the face of it had a disaster down in 106th place. But in fact he got sick during the race and almost abandoned. Just ten days later though he turned up in Andalucia and won a super stage, mugging Contador in the last kilometre, and he also finished 4th in the ITT to finish 4th overall. 9th in Strade Bianche confirmed that he was starting to hit good form and he took 3rd overall again in Tirreno.

He was also one of the strongest riders in the ToTA with results that read 3, 2, 5, 2, 1, with the win being from a sprint ahead of Bookwalter and Thomas after a tough day in the hills. He finished 2nd overall in the GC, just 7” behind Thomas and he looked really good at times, confident and smooth.

He’s never done the Giro before, but he has finished 3rd in the TDF in 2014, something I remember fondly having backed him each-way at 150/1. He is a good climber, as we know, but he also improved his time trialling dramatically last year, winning three TTs in 2016, including the French national TT championships. In terms of levels versus the GC favourites here, I wouldn’t put him far off them, and on a given day I actually think he could beat both of them in these TTs.

With Sebastian Reichenbach, Jeremy Roy, Davide Cimolai and Steve Morabito he has a handy enough team with him and I think he makes a good case for an outside shout at a podium spot here too! He will stay with a lot of the other guys around him in the betting and he could even take a stage along the way to lift him up the GC.

Bauke Mollema – 18/1

Bauke is yet another rider around 14/1, but is available at 18/1 with Bet365. 14/1 suggests he has a 6.7% chance of winning the race too. Does that sound about right? I don’t think so..  I think he should be about 33/1, so 14/1 is a poor price for him. He’s not exactly a prolific winner, the Clasica San Sebastian was his only win since October 2015 when he won the Japan Cup. He has only done the Giro once in 2010, when he finished12th at just 23 years of age and he once finished 4th in the Vuelta back in 2011, but since then his record there is pretty awful. He has fared better in the TDF though, his record over the last 4 years reads 11, 7, 10, 6 – but he has yet to pay a visit to the podium in a Grand Tour.

He did win the Vuelta de San Juan in January, but that was thanks to a strong 2nd place in the TT, and the opposition were pretty poor. He did OK on Jebel Hafeet in Abu Dhabi to finish 4th and 4th overall in the GC. A poor TTT in Tirreno put paid to his chances more or less from day 1, but he did improve his position from 67th to 9th by the end of the race. He was a DNF in Catalunya while sitting in 11th place after stage 5, after he got a little sick, but since then it has been full-on training for what he is calling "#Project Giro”. He was training in the Dolomites earlier in April, including doing recons of Stage 18 to Ortisei/St Ulrich and followed that with a training block at altitude in Tenerife.

I think he will go well in this Giro, he should do ok in both TTs, he should do ok in the climbs, and he seems to have put a lot of groundwork in to the race prep. I think he is definitely capable of a top 10 here, but whether he can step on to the podium is another question. And I think at 14/1 he’s not worth backing to win it, but he might be worth backing in the top 6 markets, if any bookie offers it, he's too short at 3/10 for the top 10 market and not enough value at 9/2 for the top 3.

Domenico Pozzovivo – 80/1

Pozzo is also a perennial under-achiever – so much is expected of him in races, yet he seems to go missing more often than Elia Viviani! The last time he won a stage race of any description was the Tirreno-Adriatico in 2012, and he has never even finished on the podium of a Grand Tour. The closest he has come was in the Giro back in 2014 when he finished in 5th place, but followed that up with 20th place in 2016. He did the TDF for the first time last year and finished 33rd, but he has also finished in 6th and 11th in the Vuelta. But just as he should have been maturing in to the best years of his career he suffered that nasty injury, and he hasn't looked himself in a few years. 

He’s not had a bad 2017 so far though, there have been signs that he may be starting to get back to his old self that promised so much. 17th in the TDU, 9th in Abu Dhabi (9th on Jabel Hafeet), 10th in Tirreno and 3rd in the ToTA behind Thomas, it’s been one of his better starts to a season in a long while. His team looks pretty lightweight though, I think he’ll be on his own on all of the crucial mountain stages and that will cost him. 6th to 10th possibly, but the TTs could see him slip even further down the rankings.

Tejay Van Garderen – 33/1

What can we make of Tejay’s chances here now? He had an interesting Tour de Romandie, falling off within a few metres of starting the Prologue, then going on the attack towards the end of stage 1, stretching his legs in the last few kilometres. When it came to the Queen stage on the Saturday he finished a very impressive 4th, 43" behind Porte, but 9" ahead of the GC favourites on his own, after first marking their attempts to chase Porte and then riding away from them himself.

He followed that up the next day by leading the TT until the two favourites smashed his time right at the death, but it was still good enough for a surprise 3rd place on the stage and 6th overal on the GC. And he could have finished 4th overall but for the crash in the prologue and a race car getting in his way at the end of the TT.. 

Before that he had actually led the Volta Catalunya after stage 3 thanks to the TTT on stage 2 which BMC won, but slipped down to 6th after stage 5, as he lost almost 2 minutes to Valverde, eventually finishing 5th. BMC have said that Tejay will be sole leader for the race, with Rohan Dennis having a free role to do what he wants, but the rest of the team are pretty good too, with Dillier, Rosskopf, Quinziato, Ventoso, Hermans and Teuns to look after him. If it all goes pear-shaped for TVG we could see the likes of Hermans and Teuns going stage hunting.

It’s the first time he’s done the Giro, which is a surprise at his age, but bar 2015 he has ridden five out of the last six TDFs, finishing 5th twice. He’s finished in the top 3 of shorter stage races 22 times over the year, including wins at the ATOC and the USA Pro Challenge, but it’s been 3 years since he last won a stage race. He will do ok in the TTs, and he should do ok on most of the climbs, and he is sounding very confident of a big ride, he's very happy with his form and how the team have been helping him prepare for it. But we must remember he’s also quite fragile and always seems to suffer some sort of malaise and I wouldn't be surprised to see him slip back in the third week. 6th to 10th again I think with him, but if it really goes off the rails for him he could end up 40th..!

Adam Yates – 18/1

Adam Yates has been separated from his brother Simon for this, with Simon now doing the TDF instead in July. His 8th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege was a good sign, he was right there at the front coming up the final hill, but he’s no sprinter and was never going to beat Valverde or any of the top 5. He also finished 4th in Catalunya after good rides on stage 3 to La Molina where he finished 3rd behind Dan Martin and Valverde, and stage 5 to Lo Port where he finished 5th.

He finished a fantastic 4th in the TDF last year, just 21” away from Quintana’s 3rd place spot on the podium, but over 30” ahead of Richie Porte, taking the young riders competition along the way. He had an excellent race, leapfrogging from 13th to 2nd on stage 7, and staying in the top 3 until the 19th stage to Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc, thanks to an excellent 16th place in the ITT on stage 18. He’s only done the two Grand Tours, last year’s TDF but the year before he finished 50th. 

He is better against the clock than you’d think, finishing 18th in the 37km TT in the Tour last year as well as the 16th in the stage 18 TT, so he should do ok in the TTs, he looks like he is climbing very well too so could be a real good outside chance of a podium place here if he can steal some time with a trademark stage win some day too. I like his chances here, I think he could well come very close to taking a podium spot here, he is very confident and has prepared well for it. 

Ilnur Zakarin – 22/1

The enigma.. What Zakarin will turn up for this Giro? He seemed to promise so much a few years ago with his crazy win in the Tour de Romandie and his stage in the Giro, but he hasn’t really kicked on. He only managed 44th place in the Giro that year and followed it up with 25th in the TDF last year, although he did take a stage win again. He’s had a mixed year so far – off the pace, understandably in his first race of the year in Valenciana, he rode a great stage in Abu Dhabi a few weeks later on Jabel Hafeet to finish 2nd and 2nd overall.

He finished a creditable 6th in Paris-Nice, thanks mainly to his 5th place in the Mont Brouilly TT, and then he was sitting in 21st in Catalunya before a crash on stage 4 damaged a rib and he was forced to pull out. He rested up for a month returned for Romandie, where he finished 133rd in the prologue. He will go well on most stages I think, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stage hunting, rather than going for the GC, and he’s capable of riding well in the big stages at the latter part of the race. There is a chance too with Zakarin that he bins it in a ditch some day on a descent off of one of the climbs so I'm going to leave him.. 

Primoz Roglic - 100/1

Roglic continues to impress and continues to deliver when expected to do so. He really kicked himself in to the limelight with his win in the TT in the Giro last year, putting 28" in to Cancellara and well over 2 minutes in to Nibali over 40kms. And this season has started very well for him too, he was impressive in the Algarve, finishing just behind Dan Martin on the first stage and then finishined 3rd in the TT to take the overall general classification. He finished a fine 5th in Tirreno, despite an early handicap in the TTT, taking 5th in the short and flat TT, which doesn't suit him as much as lumpy TTs.

He was again super impressive in the Pais Vasco, winning a stage with a cheeky late attack and taking the TT comfortably, but only finished in 5th overall as he lost over a minute on the finish to Eibar. Another TT win and 3rd place overall in Romandie continues to confirm what a talent he is.  But how will he get on here over three weeks? Well last year's race started disastrously for him, losing over 7 mins on only the 3rd stage in Holland in the wind splits and he never really recovered, and he struggled on a lot of the climbs, resulting in a 58th position overall. 

Climbing the big climbs will be his achilles heel, he could lose minutes here and there like on the finish to Eibar in Pais Vasco. He may well do great in both TTs, but it won't make up for losing a minute or two on crucial mountain finishes. 

Other Outsiders

Sergey Firsanov is 34 year’s old, but has only ever done one Grand Tour, the Giro in 2016, when he finished 30th. He has a gaggle of GC wins in smaller races like the Coppi e Bartali, but the lack of history of big stage races and his poor performances so far this year is telling me to stay clear of him (watch him win it now in spectacular, cyborg-style dominance..).  

Cannondale Drapac have a few riders who could go well in this race but real out-and-out favourite for the GC. Pierre Rolland has finished 4th in this race in 2014, his highest ever finish in a Grand Tour, but his GC days are behind him, and he is going to be stage hunting I've been told. They are expecting a big ride from Davide Formolo though. The baby-faced assasin finished 12th in Catalunya and was sitting in 5th overall in the Tour of the Alps before they caused controversy by withdrawing him before the final stage in favour of a day's extra rest for Liege-Bastogne-Liege. But he almost silenced all the critics in style with a fine attack in the closing stages that saw him lead going up the final climb before being swamped by Dan Martin's stinging attack.

He is in great form and will relish riding at home, he was 2nd in the Youth classification in 2015 and 4th last year and finished in exactly the same position in the GC both years, 31st. He did take an excellent 9th place in the GC in the Vuelta last year and he could be ready to step up to a top 6 placing I think this year. At 150/1 he might be worth a speculative pound or two, but I also like him in the top 6 market at 7/1.

Joe Dombrowski, Michael Woods, Davide Villela, Hugh Carthy and TJ Slagter provide them with lots of attacking power and they are sure to be aggressive and active again in their search for their first World Tour level victory since Formolo's win in Stage 4 of the Giro in 2015... 

Bardiani don't really have a GC man, but expect them to be super-aggressive as they always are, Pirazzi and Ruffoni are two possible stage winners in their ranks. Bora-Hangrohe's best chance of a GC result lies with Patrick Konrad, but he'll be 10th to 20th at best I think, they'll be better off focusing on stage wins with Bennett and maybe Postlberger. 

Lotto Soudal will also be looking for stages, as they don't have a top GC man in their team either, although Maxime Monfort has finished in the top 20 of the Giro the last three years running. He has also finished in the top 20 of the Vuelta five out the six times he's entered, including finishing 6th in 2011. He's had a pretty mediocre year this year though, so it's likely he will be stage hunting, along with Bart de Clercq, Lars Bak and Adam Hansen. 

Dimension Data have a strong squad here with a number of guys who are going really well at the moment.. Omar Fraille showed how strong he is going last weekend with his superb ride in the third stage of the TDY, bridging across to his team-mate Serge Pauwels in no time at all while the rest of the break floundered. I expect big things from Fraile, I think he has a big chance of taking the KOM title, as detailed in my Jerseys preview. Daniel Teklehaimanot can always be counted on for a breakaway on a hilly day, and an attempt at the KOM jersey too, and Nathan Haas, Natnael Berhane, Kristian Sbaragli and Johan Van Zyl can challenge for stage wins too. 

Wilko Kelderman and Chad Haga are going well for Sunweb too at the moment and could challenge for stage wins. UAE Team Emirates have Rui Costa here, and he looks incredibly big at 200/1, for a rider of such class and ability. Winner of the Abu Dhabi Tour, 2nd in Tour of Oman, 5th in San Juan, he started the season in great fashion. Three-time winner of the Tour de Suisse, 2nd in Paris Nice, three times 3rd in Romandie, the former World Champion knows how to ride short stage races really well..

But his record in Grand Tours isn't as good, 18th in 2012 is the best he's finished in the TDF, and rather amazingly, he has never ridden the Giro before, or the Vuelta! He has won a 27km TT in the Tour de Suisse in the past and he is a former Portugese TT champion too, so he might be able to post a semi-respectable time in the TTs. He may not be a fancied runner at all here, but he won't be far off the likes of Mollema, Van Garderen, Yates and some of the rest who are a fraction of his price, he's worth a small bet e/w at 200/1 and a nibble in the top 6 market too at 7/1.. UAE have options for stage glory too with Sacha Modolo, Jan Polanc, Matej Mohoric and Valerio Conti.

So final prognosis - I can't see past Nairo here, he looks like he will start well in stage 4 in Mount Etna, will do well on stages 9, 14 and will really put it to bed in the last week, and I think he's a bet at 11/8 on Betfair, or the evens is just about acceptable, I wouldn't go much shorter though.. Who will finish behind him is the big question though, it's an absolute lottery, with about 7 or 8 guys capable of filling the next two steps on the podium, and on any given day they could be swapping places. I like Kruisjwijk's chances each-way at 10/1, I think he might be good enough to sneak in to the podium to banish his demons from last year. And Adam Yates is big enough at 18/1 to have an each-way nibble too at 18/1, I think he will continue his upward trajectory and is good enough to come very close to taking a podium spot too. 

Recommendation:

5pts win on Nairo Quintana at 11/8 with Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Steven Kruijswijk at 10/1 with Corals

0.5pts each-way on Adam Yates at 18/1 with Bet365

3pts on Adam Yates at 2.4 to finish in the top 6 with Betfair

0.15pt each-way on Rui Costa at 200/1

2pts on Rui Costa to finish in the top 10 at 7/1

Matchbets

Yates to beat Mollema - 2pts at 6/5

Pozzovivo to beat Jungels - 3pts at 11/10

Monfort to beat Kangert - 2pts at 5/4

Dumoulin to beat Zakarin - 3pts at 4/5, all with 365