Details

Published on Tuesday, 02 May 2017 21:50

Giro Jerseys Betting 

Who will win the Points and KOM Jerseys?

Not only does the Giro have a very different and distinct leader's jersey compared to the ubiquitous yellow jerseys of so many other races, but it also has slightly unusual colours for the winners of the Mountains and Sprinters jerseys.

The leader of the sprints competition has worn red in recent years, but the organisers have switched back to the Cyclamen coloured jersey which the Giro Points leader used to wear in bygone days, as sported by Alessandro Pettachi below back in 2014. The leader of the Mountains still wears the deep blue coloured jerseys sponsored by Banco Mediolanum. 

Points Jersey

The Giro's 'sprinters' points jersey can be difficult for pure sprinters to win, such is the amount of climbing that needs to be done over the three weeks. It's difficult, but not impossible - I picked Giacomo Nizzolo for this for the last two years running, last year advising to wait a few stages for a bigger price and we got 5/2 instead of the 7/4 he was pre-race. The year before we backed him at 11/2. Nacer Bouhanni led a bunch of sprinters in 2014, but the likes of Nizzolo and Mezgec weren't far off either. Mark Cavendish won the year before that. Prior to that, Joaquim Rodriguez won in 2012 and Michele Scarponi in 2011,  with lots of climbers in the top 10.

So where does this route sit in terms of being climber or sprinter friendly? There are quite a few sprint opportunities earlier in the race, but some of the stages will also suit the punchy sprinters-who-can-climb-a-bit, but most importantly they need to finish the race.. Riders like Giacomo Nizzolo - and hence why he opened the 11/8 favourite with Bet365 again this year. And as the points are skewed more towards sprint stages it does make it a little easier for sprinter types to win it.

How the points are awarded

The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage - the sprint stages offer more points in a bid to try to ensure the sprinters jersey is won by a sprinter! They have changed the allocation of points a little this year, but it's broadly the same (for example A+B stages used to go 50,40,34 etc, now it's 50, 35, 25 so there is more emphasis on winning the stage). Also, the intermediate points now only go to the first 8 from the first 10 last year, going 20, 12, 8 etc instead of 20, 16, 12..

For Category A+B stages (Stages 1,2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 12, 13) they offer points for the first 20 riders in the following allocation: 50-35-25-18-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1. For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV on the route maps) there are points for the first eight allocated as follows: 20-12-8-6-4-3-2-1. With 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey again like last year..

For Category C stages: (Stages 8, 14, 15, 17) there are points for the first 10 (was first 15 last year) : 25, 18, 12, 8, 6, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first five: 10, 6, 3, 2, 1, same as last year.

Category D stages: (Stages 4, 9, 11, 16, 18, 19, 20) offer points for the first 10: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first three: 8, 4, 1, both sets are the same as last year. 

The Contenders 

When you start thinking about a potential winner of this jersey, one important thing to keep in mind is that not every sprinter will make it all the way to Milan, crashes may take some out, but others will just decide that the torture of trying to get over the hills of that final week just isn't worth it and pack their bags early to save the legs for the Tour de France.. 

Giacomo Nizzolo we know can finish this race after winning the competition for the last two years running, despite not winning a stage! Over the last five years he has amassed an amazing nine 2nd place finishes, four 3rds and four 4ths, showing an incredible level of consistency in the sprint finishes.. Is this the year he finally lands a victory? I'm sure he'd happily trade the jersey for a stage win this year.

He also finished 2nd to Bouhanni in 2014, thanks to four 2nd places, a 3rd, a 5th and a 9th place. He is also good at snaffling intermediate points along the way to help towards the jersey. Outside of those top ten finishes though he does finish way down the field, it goes to show that you don't actually have to win any stages to do well, just be consistent and pick up as many points when the chances are there. 

I think he has a great chance of winning it again this year though, he should be right up there in most of the flat sprints, taking top ten placings, will be there on some of the lumpier stages when other sprinters are rolling in 20 minutes down and will pick up lots of intermediate points too, getting in mountain stage breaks if he has to to seal the deal. I think he will also last the course too and will be there at the finish in Milan, unlike a lot of other sprinters. He opened with Bet365 as the 11/8 favourite and I was going to say, that a bit like last year's advice, it might be worth waiting to back him as he is likely to fall behind the better sprinters early on in the race and his price should go out to a more backable price. But Paddy Power opened with him at 4/1 and I had to have a bit of that to start with, it's twice the price 365 are currently for him. 

He will have a big challenger this year though that he hasn't had in the last two years, with Fernando Gaviria taking part in his first ever Grand Tour. How will he go in his first three-week tour at just 22 years of age? It's hard to know, he could go out and win a stage or more, we've seen him win punchy uphill finishes in Tirreno ahead of Sagan this year and flat sprints in the Algarve ahead of Greipel and Bouhanni. A lot was expected of him in Milan Sanremo but he finished 5th, 2nd in the sprint for 4th place. He's got a very strong team here with him to help him win the tougher stages that other sprinters may not be involved in the finishes of and he can snaffle plenty of intermediate points.

He opened as the hot 10/11 favourite for this with PP, but was as big as 4/1 with 365 before they cut him to 10/3. 10/11 is far too short to me.. He is currently lined up to do the TDF, so I am going out on a limb here and saying that he may well call it a day around stages 13-15 and save himself for France and I'm going to go against him

Another Italian who will be looking to impress on home roads of course will be UAE Team Emirates Sacha Modolo. He opened last year at something crazy like 16/1 but in no time at all he had been slashed to 4/1 and we backed him each-way as he is so consistent and capable of finishing the race (unlike Kittel who was favourite for the jersey last year). Modolo had a good build-up to last year's race, and he's not been going badly this year either with a number of top ten places, including 6th in the Tour of Flanders. And just a few weeks ago he took two stage wins in the Tour of Croatia, it's always good to see a rider land a win or two in the build up to the big one. 

At 6/1 with PP I'm tempted to have a bet on him each-way as he looks like a pretty solid shout for a top 3 finish, he's only 2/1 with 365 - he should last through to the finish and he should be capable of picking up enough points along the way to push him in to the top 3 - with a bit of luck, or maybe a Nizzolo DNF, he could even win it. It apparently is his big target for the year and he is fully fired up to deliver it, backed up by a team that will literally put their necks on the line in order to get him on the right wheel coming to the finish. Roberto Ferrari, Matej Mohoric, Jan Pollanc and Marco Marcato will look after him. 

André Greipel was a big looking 28/1 last year, but the German doesn't really win points jerseys much these days and I advised to stay clear of backing him.. He won two stages in the end though, the second being stage 12, and he promptly packed his bags and went home.. He will struggle again on the hillier stages and I think it's only 50/50 that he'll actually finish with the Tour to come as well - I think he'll go home after stage 13 or maybe after stage 15 during the second rest day and the 7/1 with PP is a terrible price, the 18/1 with 365 doesn't appeal either. 

Caleb Ewan is another interesting one, will he make it all the way to Milan? He too abandoned last year's race after stage race like Greipel, in fact he finished 2nd to Greipel in stage 12 before packing his bags and going home. He has that experience under his belt though, as well as the Vuelta in 2015, where he won a stage but only got as far as stage 10.. Four stage wins and the points jersey in the TDU, two 2nd places last week in the TDY and the points jersey, and a stage win in Abu Dhabi in between shows that he is in great form this season.. If, IF he can make it to Milan he has a good shot at winning this, but I am very doubtful about him making it, and it looks like PP agree, they make him 14/1, 365 are incredibly short on him at just 9/2. 

Other possible contenders? Sam Bennett can take a lot of points in the sprint stages, and if you're worried about whether he'll get to Milan, just look at what he put himself through last year to get to Paris in the Tour de France. Seriously injured in the very first stage, he rode the rest of the race in a lot of pain, barely able to hold the handlebars at times. He will score points in sprints and intermediates and could well be still going in the third week when a lot of others have gone home. 365 and are in a rare moment of agreement on his chances though, he's 14/1.

Nicola Ruffoni could go well for Bardiani, they have won a stage every year in the race since 2012, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ruffoni nab a stage along the way this year too, he landed two back-to-back stage wins in Croatia a few weeks back. But he has yet to finish a Giro in three attempts, and that is putting me off him too.

I think Nizzolo will go very close again this year though and the 4/1 is a decent enough price. I think Modolo is worth an e/w bet at 6/1 or bigger, I know it's not original, they're the same bets as last year, but they are both pretty solid picks I think.

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Modolo at 6/1 with PP

2pts win on Nizzolo at 4/1 with PP

King of the Mountains Betting Preview

The Maglia Azzura competition for the King of the Mountains is a really hard one to call, no matter which race it is. It's almost impossible to know beforehand who is going to be aiming to try to win the jersey and it often only becomes clear on the first mountainous stage when someone goes off in a break and tries to win every point available on the day.. Getting an early lead in this competition then turns the rider in to a points maniac and they can often then go on to try to just pick up points all through the race to win the jersey.

This Giro could be different though with the backloading of a lot of mountain points in the final week of racing, similar to last year's race. Last year saw a dramatic swing with Damiano Cunego leading the competition and Mikel Nieve down in 6th place with just three stages to go. But Nieve went nuts and picked up 48pts on stage 19 and 54pts on stage 20 to leapfrog over Cunego and take the jersey home. 

It was an incredibly close run thing in 2015 too with Visconti only just beating Landa by 3pts and Kruijswijk by 10pts, Landa coming with a late charge on the final day to move from 4th to 2nd, but Aru winning the stage and the points denied him the winners jersey... 

Like with the Points Jersey, the points are awarded in a scale depending on the toughness of the climb as follows:

The Cima Coppi - this is a special award for the highest point in the Giro every year, this year it is the Passo Stelvio on stage 16, where the first 9 over the top win the following points: 45, 30, 20, 14, 10, 6, 4, 2, 1. With this climb alone offering such a large amount of points it could completely change the top of the mountains classification, but there are still plenty of points up for grabs in the back-loaded race. 

And just on Tuesday there was a very late change to the classification with a special prize announced in memory of Michele Scarponi on the climb of the Mortirolo on stage 16, with double points for the first over it - that means a massive 70 points for it, even more than the Cima Coppi. 

If someone is targeting the jersey then it might pay to just tick along picking up points here and there to stay in contention and then going all-in on stage 16 to get the Cima Coppi and Mortirolo points. A strong break should take the points as they come early in the stage, and they could even hang on until the Umbrail pass where there are another 35 points on offer. That's a massive 150pts on offer in one stage if someone is really strong and committed that day. 

The ten 1st Cat climbs award points as follows to the first eight riders: 35, 18, 12, 9, 6, 4, 2, 1

The twelve 2nd Cat climbs award points to the first six riders as follows: 15, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1

Nine 3rd Cat climbs award 7, 4, 2, 1

Nine 4th Cat climbs award 3, 2, 1

There are 522pts in total available out on the course compared to just 140pts at the finish of stages, so the points system works against the GC favourites who tend to let others scrap out the climbs along the stages and just go hard in the final climbs. Stage 16 is going to be crucial for this though, if a strong climber gets in the break and takes all three Cat 1s, including the Cima Coppi they will amass 150pts and then it's about getting in the early breaks again to hoover up the early points on stages 17, 18 and 19, they may have it wrapped up by then. If not, there is one final chance on stage 20 with the Cat 1 Monte Grappa and Foza along the way. 

Last year the bookies made Mikel Landa the clear 6/4 favourite for the jersey, he didn't even finish the race.. This year is a very different story though, with Landa, Quintana and Omar Fraile the co-favourites with 365, all at 13/2, followed by Pierre Rolland at 15/2 and Alexander Foliforov at 10/1. So what's it going to be? Stage hunters and break away rider amassing lots of points out on the course, or Quintana hoovering up all the points at the finish of stages?

Well, Quintana will take a lot of points I think for sure on some of the big stage finishes, but there aren't a lot of them available. He won't win many out on the courses, he doesn't go for KOM points when he's racing for GC. So I think I'll draw a line through him, although he could well finish in the 2nd or 3rd place if the course points are spread out amongst a selection of other riders. 

Mikel Landa could well take this competition this year, but again, how will the situation with him and Thomas pan out? If Thomas is going for GC, will Landa be working for him or will he be just attacking away with a free hand to play, and if so he could well rack up some big points on some big days, particularly on Stage 16, it could be one for him to get in the break of the day. Who knows, by that stage Thomas might be out of contention and he will be able to do what he likes.. So I think with Landa, it's actually worth waiting maybe well in to the second week to see how things are going, his price probably won't have dropped much and we can reassess the situation before the crucial final week. 

Omar Fraile has won the KOM jersey in the Vuelta for the last two years running (as well as the KOM jersey in the Pais Vasco and Vuelta a Burgos) and now comes to the Giro with amends to make for last year. He crashed heavily in stage 4 and was sick and dizzy in stage 5 so abandoned in the feed zone.. he never even got a shot at a mountain!

He has had a pretty average build up to the Giro with low finishes in Coppi E Bartali and Pais Vasco, and didn't finish Paris-Nice or the Vuelta Algarve.. But he showed a spark of form with a not-too-far-off 25th place in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and followed that up with a very impressive showing in the final stage in Yorkshire, bolting up to Pauwels in the last kilometres. I think he was strong enough to take the stage if it wasn't his own team-mate he was against. It was good enough to put him in 2nd in the GC, for a 1-2 for DimDa.

What can he do here though? Well he has a good shot at the title I think, he'll be agressive and he'll be on the attack regularly, especially if he can pick up early points and build on it. He could be on the attack as early as stage 4 to take the Cat 2 points on the early climb on the way to Etna, to keep his total ticking over. Stage 11 and 12 are two that he could go on the attack on too, plenty of easy points up for grabs if he can get in the breaks. Then it's a matter of picking up what he can for the rest of the race.  

Alexander Foliforov is just 10/1, but he signalled his intentions in the Tour of the Alps by taking KOM points every single day to secure the jersey. The man who pulled off one of the most WTF moments of the Giro last year by winning the TT on stage 15 to Alpe di Siusi. He finished 6th in the KOM competition last year, but was 86pts behind Nieve. He may have been going well in the ToTA, but there is nothing else really to suggest he's any value here at just 10/1, he doesn't even finish quite a lot of his races.. 

Giovanni Visconti won this competition in 2015 and was 5th last year, but has also finished 3rd back in 2013, he knows what's required to do well in this competition. I would fancy him for this each-way at a tempting 16/1 were it not for the fact that it's hard to know what his role will be in the team. He's one of the most experienced guys in the team and Nibali might want him close, but with the likes of Siutsou, Gasparotto, Pellizotti, Moreno, Boaro and Agnoli in the team he might be allowed go in the hunt for the jersey, especially later in the race if Nibali's title ambitions go tits up. 

Rui Costa could be stage hunting in the race too, but I'm hoping he will try for a high GC placing as I am backing him for a top 10 finish at 7/1 in that market. If he does decide to go for stages and breaks though he'd have a chance at going for the jersey, but I have my reservations. Steven Kruijswijk is also 16/1, but I think he'll be concentrating on trying to finish as high up the GC as possible and might forego the KOM jersey. Joe Dombrowski (25/1) has a free role in the Giro for Cannondale and he could well fancy a shot at the jersey, he has a penchant for attacks and is a very good climber, but I worry a little for his stamina later in the race when the block of key stages will come. 

Adam Yates at 33/1 might get involved, but I think he'll be concentrating on the GC, as could Jose Goncalves at a big-looking 80/1. Or what about Luis Leon Sanchez or Tanel Kangert going out there and trying to win it for Michele? If they go for it on the Mortirolo stage that is in his memory, they can rack up a very large number of points. Luis Leon has been riding pretty well this year and is a former winner of the KOM competition in the Vuelta in 2014. I have a funny feeling they might try something like this, they have no rider for GC now without Michele, and they have decided to ride with just 8 riders for the race, so I expect them to be aggressive and try to win a stage or two, or to take the climbers jersey in his honour would be a great result for the team. He posted this picture on his instagram after Michele's death, saying he will never forget him.. 

It's impossible to predict this one, but I think Fraile will at least be making an effort for it, you know he'll be in as many breaks as possible and we know he is capable of a sprint at the top of a mountain for maximum points. I like Luis Leon too - he'll also give us a run for our money I think. Definitely a market worth keeping an eye on in the opening stages though, particularly after Etna, we might get an idea of who is up for it and who's going well. Prices above are from Bet365 who were the only bookie out with prices on Tuesday night, you might get better when some of the other bookies open, especially on LL Sanchez hopefully. 

Recommendations:

1pts each-way on Omar Fraile at 13/2 or bigger

0.5pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 25/1 or bigger

Young Riders Betting Preview

Adam Yates is one of the favourites for the overall and indeed has a very good chance of a top 6, maybe even a top 3 finish. By that measure, he should walk this competition, and looks a shoe-in for it. Is he worth backing at just 4/7 though?!! I'd like to say yes, although if I was to take a chance on such a short price candidate for an overall bet, I'd rather be on Quintana for the overall as there is a slight risk with counting on a 24 year-old over three weeks. Having said that though, Quintana was winning the Youth competition in the TDF when he was just 23 and won the Giro and the Youth with it at just 24.. 

Bob Jungels won this competition by almost a half an hour last year from Seb Henao, he did far better in the mountains than many expected and was streets ahead of the other guys in the TTs. He is back again for more, can he repeat the feat against some strong opposition this year? He is in good form, finishing 8th just last week in the Tour de Romandie, thanks to some fine climbing, especially on the 'Queen' stage where he finished with the leading group of climbers that came in behind Van Garderen. That would have been good enough for the Youth jersey, but they have different rules there. 

In Amstel Gold he finished with the main pack that chased home the leaders, and before that he took 14th in Tirreno, and the best young rider prize. He looks a solid pick each-way again this year, especially as I think he will look forward to the final TT in Milan, where he could put on a good show in the White Jersey. But at just 10/3 with 365 there is no each-way value, watch out to see if any of the other bookies go bigger than 4/1, he'd be worth backing. 

Sebastian Henao finished 2nd to Jungels last year with some fine performances, he's also here this year, but how are his chances looking given that Sky have two men going for the GC? Well, it could mean one of two things - he either works early on in the climbs for them and dies away, or is asked to save his legs in the closing stages and loses a lot of time.. Or he works hard and stays with their leaders until late in the stage then keeps going as hard as his exhausted legs are able to and still manages to post good times. I think it might be a combination of both, with him finishing some stages very well and some stages really poorly, so as a result he may slip down the rankings. He might also be asked to save his legs in the first TT, so he could lose time there too. 

Valerio Conti was a surprise 3rd in this competition last year when riding for Lampre-Merida, but that was thanks to a very solid set of results over the three weeks, finishing most of the stages around 30th-60th place. He's with UAE TE now and it will be interesting to see how he goes this year and how UAE approach the race. They have an outside top 10 pick in Rui Costa, but will they focus everything on him, to the detriment of Conti? Or will they focus everything on winning the POints jersey with Modolo and ask the climbers to save legs where they can? Or will they go for the Youth Jersey with Conti. I'm afraid it could be a combination of all three and as a result they may come up short in all three. If Costa was to work for Conti, then he has a chance at a top 3 placing in this competition, but I'm not sure that will happen this year. His form hasn't been great at all and fnishing 21st in the young riders competition in Catalunya doesn't bode well for him. 

Davide Formolo though is one I am interested in again.. I recommended him two years ago at 12/1 and he finished 2nd to Aru, last year he was a ridiculous 5/4 to take it and I said steer clear of that, he ended up 4th. He rode brilliantly in the Vuelta last year too though to finish 9th in the GC and I think he could be a dark horse for a good showing in the GC, and as a result he could come close to winning the Young Riders jersey too. He was 12th in Catalunya and was sitting in 5th in the ToTA before retiring early and going to LBL where he gave it a go on the final hill.

I think we will see Cannondale on the attack a lot in this race and we could see breaks where they have more than one rider in the break, like Rolland or Dombrowski, and they can help Formolo late in the stages when they are caught too maybe. He prepared for this race at altitude and I've been told he is going really well in training, so at 8/1 he's worth a bet each-way I think. Hugh Carthy at 18/1 could go well too for Cannondale, but I think he's a bit young and they will be focusing on Joe and Davide. 

Matvey Mamikin could go well at 80/1 for Katusha, as could Manuel Senni at 33/1 for BMC, but I think they will all be a long way behind Adam Yates, with hopefully Davide Formolo chasing him home. 

Recommendation:

1pt each-way on Davide Formolo at 8/1