Details

Published on Monday, 11 July 2016 22:10

TDF Stage 11

Carcassone to Montpellier

Wed 13th July, 162.5kms 

When it comes to stage finish towns in the Tour de France's history, Montpellier is right up there with Paris and Bordeaux with the number of stage finishes that end in a sprint. It's almost a given now that any stage that ends in Montpellier will probably be one for the fast men, and it looks that way again this year. 

André Greipel, Mark Cavendish and Robbie Hunter were the winners on the last three occasions the Tour sped in to the main city of the Herault. Even though it's one of the most popular locations for a TDF stage finish, you have to go back to 1961 to find the last French winner of a stage to Montpellier, when André Darrigade took the stage victory. Can Coquard finally break that drought for the French and give them something to cheer about after the misery of losing the Euros Final?

So the break made it today - there was a frantic opening hour of racing where multiple attacks went off the front, small groups, big groups, but they had one thing in common - they almost all included Peter Sagan. Michael Matthews was also heavily involved, and as it turned out they finished 1-2 on the stage after the decisive move of the day were eventually given enough rope by the peloton to go on and fight it out.

Rui Costa, Steve Cummings, Vincenzo Nibali - all were in the main break of the day, but when Sagan kicked and the race split, they were left behind to fight out the minor placings. Significantly though, Orica Bike Exchange had three strong men who made the final split of seven - Impey, Durbridge and Matthews were facing Sagan, EBH, GVA and Sam Dumoulin in the race for the stage. It was an exciting finale, almost like a Classics race, with Sagan repeatedly attacking and Orica covering everything. Impey and Durbridge were superb for Matthews and he made Sagan pay for all his exertions all day by comfortably taking the sprint. 

Sagan will still be happy with his day even though he finished 2nd once again, he picked up 45pts in the Green Jersey comp, took over the lead and moved 38pts clear of Cavendish. Michael Matthews moved up in to 4th place and could well continue to climb that ladder over the rest of the Tour with the hilly stages to come.

Losers on the day were the other sprinter's teams - Almost as if they knew that they might struggle on that final climb, most teams didn't even bother chasing. Direct Energie made a total balls of the stage, sending Chavanel in the break, he did nothing all day, citing the 'riding for Coquard' card, but was one of the first dropped when the going got tough. Katusha tried, and failed abysmally to organise a chase, they chased, they stopped, they chased, they stopped, and made no in-roads. IAM Cycling rode at the front for mile after mile, for no apparent reason whatsoever, but they were only ever really travelling around the same pace as a very powerful break who were working pretty well together.

It was a day off though for the GC men, which they'll be glad of, it was a little stressful and sketchy climbing, and descending the Envalira in the fog, but thankfully there were no Kruijswijk like smashes or anything like that. Most of the sprinters got dropped on the first climb very early, at one point a group were more than 5 mins behind the leaders. But with the general slowing down in the peloton once over the top, they got back in again.

But it wasn't just sprinters who were getting dropped surprisingly, some guys who were fancied for the stage were in trouble early on too. Guys like Serge Pauwels (although he might have been trying to help Sammy B over the climb to keep him in the race for tomorrow), Wilko Kelderman, Thomas  de Gendt, Tony Gallopin and Matthias Frank. I guess some of them either came out the rest day badly or didn't warm up on the trainers enough beforehand. A small loss on the day for us, Dumoulin winning his matchbet, but seeing as the peloton just rolled across the line spread across the road, it totally screwed most people's matchbets and Greipel of course rolled home in front of Kristoff!

The Route

A pretty straight-forward run from Carcasonne heading north-east for the whole stage, there are plenty of lumps and bumps along the way, including two easy Cat 4 climbs, but it's more than likely we will see the sprinters come together for the last flat 20kms of the stage as they skirt along close to the A9.

The one thing to watch out for of course on a stage like this is the coastal winds coming in off the Méditerranée, but in this instance it won't be coming in from the sea, but instead whipping down from inland towards the sea, in a cross/tailwind. And it's no light breeze either, but winds of up to 21mph are expected. This could see echelons, splits and carnage as they head towards Montpellier, especially in the last 20kms when they take a slight deviation at Monbazin and start heading north-east instead of east of north-east. 

As they enter Montpellier, there's lots of street furniture to contend with as you'd expect - with 5.5kms to go they hit a big roundabout and turn north-east again and should have a full on cross-wind from their left for about 2kms. With just over 3kms to go they swing around the wide arcing bend under the flyover and start heading south-east and with just over 2kms to go start heading south on a pretty straight road.

There is a slight pull-up from the flamme rouge for 500m, but the last 500m is dead flat and straight and should be perfect for a massive battle amongst the fast men. They will have a tail wind on this final section, so the pace is sure to be furious and as this is the last chance for the sprinters possibly until Paris there should be an almighty scrap. 

Contenders and Favourites

The wind could be the big deciding factor in today's stage - the break will have a tough time of it as they will be buffeted by cross-winds all day and as the sprinters teams know this is one of the last chances for some of their men, they will be going flat out to ensure it ends in a sprint, especially after today. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the sprinters pack their bags after this stage, who wants to spend the next week and a half being punished day after day when, like with Cavendish for example, there's an Olympics to prepare for. 

We may see Kittel go too, but with the lure of a win on the final stage in Paris still a possibility for Kittel Greipel and Coquard, they may stay. So - expect this to be a fast stage, particularly near the finish.. Sprinters teams will want to pull back the break and keep their men out of trouble,

They may also want to do what Eisel, Cavendish and the HTC team did in 2009 on the stage to La Grand Motte, not far from here, when they put the hammer down in a cross-wind section and split the race to pieces. Only 24 riders finished in the first group (SEVEN from HTC Colombia) and they gained 41" on the peloton. Lance Armstrong made the split of course, Contador, Evans and Wiggins didn't. That sort of time loss could be crucial to GC and White Jersey competitions, so GC men are going to have to be very active and alert. 

Etixx Quick Step for example - they have a big job on in this stage - number one will be to make sure Marcel Kittel doesn't do what he sometimes does and lose his team-mates on a run-in or gets left behind because of splits. He's one of the favourites for the stage of course, so they will need to keep him at the front and out of trouble. If they can split the pack with their power at some point, even better. But they also now have a secondary job to do and that's to keep Dan Martin safe and on the right side of any splits. He sits 3rd in the GC and with a realistic chance of a top 6, possibly even a top 3 depending on how the TTs go for him. They cannot afford to allow him to lose time though. 

If Etixx survive the cross-winds unscathed, can Kittel finally get the better of Cav? He will not be happy with how the Tour has turned out for him, even though he has one stage win, but he just hasn't been good enough, or smart enough. He had the fastest acceleration in the last sprint on stage 6, but Cav still beat him, as he made his acceleration late, where it counted the most. The finish of this stage should suit him and Etixx a lot better than the last sprint though, which was chaotic, it is pretty much straight for the last 2kms. EQS need to time it so that they are just off the pace as they come through 3kms to go and through the roundabout, and sweep to the front inside the last 2kms. Richeze needs to up his game and not let Kittel sprint in the wind on his own from 300m to go though. 

Mark Cavendish has lost a crucial part of his leadout with the retirement of Mark Renshaw, so the pressure will now be on EBH and Eisel to try to pull him in to position. Most of the rest of the team aren't much use at the finish, Cummings will be doing his own thing off the back or off the front, and Teklehaimanot, Berhane, Van Rensburg may as well not be there. They have four stage wins, Cav has a hat-trick, but there is a small chance that this could be his last stage, I doubt Cav want's to haul his ass up the Ventoux and tackle a 37km hilly TT on Friday.. but you'd never know, maybe he'll try to hang in there all the way to Paris. 

As for his chances? Well he is clearly flying - he has been the best sprinter in the the race and he looks like the Cav of 4 or 5 years ago, picking off multiple stage wins. He might find himself left to his own devices, but that may not even stop him, he has been surfing the wheels so well he has practically won the three stages on his own. It should be another massive battle between Cav and the Germans. 

André Greipel was beaten by millimetres by Cav on stage 3, but he can't be too happy with how the race has gone for him so far. Cav has beaten him on every stage so far, we cashed in on the matchbets and Cavs win on stage 6. Surely Lotto-Soudal will like this stage, with a wild and windy finish, and they may look to try to split it at some point. One thing to note though is that today when there was a little bit of crosswinds and a push at the front, Lotto were caught out and they only got back on as the peloton completely knocked off the pace again. It will have set alarm bells ringing in the team though and it was definitely better to have it happen today and not tomorrow. Surely they will be more alert tomorrow and not get caught out but it is a worry all the same. 

If they are still there when it comes to the finish they will face a fierce battle with Etixx for the lead coming in to the last kilometre and they will be hoping for a better run than they've had lately where Greipel has got a bit lost. He is probably capable of a top 3 finish though, but is he any value though at just 9/2? He was interviewed before today's stage and he sounded downbeat and resigned to the fact that he would not be involved in that finish, it was unlike him to be so negative. But he is sure to come good at some point as it's unlikely that he will leave this race without a victory. 

So they are the three main protagonists and the winner will probably come from them, but there are a number of guys who are just a level below who could get involved also. Bryan Coquard was expected to be in the mix today, but instead it was Chavanel who pressed on, as Coquard, like all the sprinters had been one of those dropped early on. Direct Energie's chase was pretty poor though, they are not a team you'd want to rely on to set you up for a sprint if no one else is willing to ride. It should be different tomorrow though and they can lean on EQS, Lotto-S and DDD to do the chasing and come late with a charge inside the last 3kms. He has the pace, it'll just be intersting to see how he has come out of the rest day and whether he can get as close to winning as he did on stage 4. At 11/1 he might be worth an each-way. 

Dylan Groenewegen hasn't managed to break the top 3 yet, closest he came was 4th on stage 4 on the uphill sprint won by Kittel. I think his best chance of landing a podium is on an uphill sprint, so I can't see him doing that tomorrow. Alexander Kristoff has been getting closer, but I expected Katusha to really work for him today to bring back the break, but their effort was pretty average to say the least, almost as if they weren't too bothered whether they pulled them back or not. That's either a bad sign that Kristoff didn't think he had the legs, or a good sign that he told them knock it off and save it for tomorrow. He's 18/1 again for tomorrow, but I think in a fast sprint like this he might be 4th to 10th. 

Peter Sagan just looks so strong at the moment, he was superb today but was undone by the sheer numbers of the OBE team. He almost rode the whole stage in full on attack mode, it surely has taken a lot out of him? He is so bloody strong and such a canny rider though that he could maybe look to cause splits tomorrow with his squad, looking to do a HTC on it. And he can also just hide away in the peloton looking for a bit of recovery day, and pop up for a sprint at the finish. 

Dan McLay was one of the last home today, he had a very easy day it looks like. If he can position himself well again on say Cav's wheel, he can maybe pounce late and podium again. John Degenkolb - very hard to know how he'll go as we didn't see him do anything either today. Edward Theuns, Sonder Holst Enger and Jens Debusschere could be others who can top 10 it, but won't podium. 

This should be a straight-forward sprint stage, but the wind should play a factor - gusts of 25-30mph will cause problems and it may be that we don't see an entire peloton come to the finish. The bookies can't split the top two, with them both around 2/1, with some bookies going shorter on one and the other. I find it very hard to split them too, but given the likely conditions, I am siding with the Classics masters EQS to come good for Kittel. Martin, Keise, Vakoc and Vermote will do their best to split things up, a smaller peloton will be of benefit to Kittel. They should be able to protect him well in the winds if it doesn't split and a big power sprint like this should suit him. He has also been looking stronger than most of the other sprinters, hanging in there on some of the climbs longer than most of the rest, and even working for Dan Martin at times. 

I fear that Mark Cavendish will struggle in the wind tomorrow, he suffered a lot in the mountains and looked to be pretty stressed out today, fighting with cameramen! André Greipel should be right up there too, but I can't trust him either, and there are also worries about Coquard and his team in the wind. It all points to a Kittel win I think. I know he has let us down a couple of times already, but it'll probably be the case that if we don't back him he'll win tommorrow. Not a lot of value out there tomorrow, so a few small bets for me this time.

Recommendations

2pts win on Marcel Kittel at 9/4 with Skybet 

Matchbets

Holst Enger to beat Bennett, Greipel to beat Coquard, Matthews to beat Degenkolb - 2pts on the treble at 13/8 with Paddy Power