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Published on Tuesday, 25 September 2018 13:36

World's ITT Champs 

Innsbruck, Austria

Wed 26th Sept, 52.5kms 

Tom Dumoulin is going for another World Championships gold medal, after taking home two last year in the ITT and TTT. His performance in last year's TT was simply sensational, winning by almost a minute from Primoz Roglic. 

We have gone from the shortest time trial in the history of the World's last year at just 31kms, to one of the longest at 52.5kms this year in Innsbruck. The shortest time trial ever run before last year's was back in 2001 in Lisbon, when Jan Ulirch took the title on a course that was 38.7kms. The average course distance is generally around 45kms, but the ITT in Richmond in 2015 was in fact 1km longer than this one at 53.5kms. 

That year saw Vasil Kiryienka motor his way to victory, beating our man Adriano Malori by just 9", with Jerome Coppel back in 3rd. Three of the favourites for this year's TT were next, with Jonathan Castroviejo beating Tom Dumoulin and Rohan Dennis. Dumoulin beat Dennis by just 6", but they were over a minute behind Kiryienka who pulled off a massive shock at 66/1 to take gold.  

It's a straight-forward course in many ways, it's pretty straight most of the way on good roads for 30kms along the Inn Valley, then goes up the climb for 5kms, descends for 9kms, and then has a rolling last 8.5kms as they head back down to Innsbruck. The complication is in the distance and trying to see who will manage the distance and the climb the best. It's not an easy climb, so riders will have to keep something in reserve for that 5km effort where gradients hit 13-14%. 

The rest of the route is all about power, with the stronger guys looking to put time in to the better climbers over the opening 30kms and on the descent back down to the finish. I wouldn't be suprised to see the likes of Dumoulin and Dennis popping on a 55 or 56-tooth chainring for that last 17kms or so. They will be helped by the prevailing wind too, which looks like it will be a tailwind for most of the day, coming from the north-east, bar a section of the climb when they head the opposite direction for a little section.

Last year's TT saw 4/5 favourite Dumoulin storm to a very comfortable victory, beating Primoz Roglic by a massive 57". Roglic had come in for a lot of support in the week before, being backed from 50/1 in to 14/1, and he rewarded his e/w backers with a strong performance, beating Chris Froome by 24" in 3rd - but that was a full 1'21" behind Dumoulin.

Nelson Oliveira, Vasil Kiryienka, Gianni Moscon, Wilko Kelderman were next, but there were disappointing performances by Tony Martin and Rohan Dennis who finished 8th and 9th respectively, Jan Tratnik rounded out the top 10. With Dumoulin and his Sunweb team failing to win the TTT on Sunday he'll be desperate to make amends and retain his rainbow stripes. 

In 2016 in Doha, Tony Martin managed to regain his crown of the world's best time triallist, reverting back to his old TT position to storm to a comfortable victory over Vasil Kiryienka and Jonathan Castroviejo. 

The Route

They start in Rattenberg to the north-east of Innsbruck and spend the first 30kms on almost totally flat roads as they roll along the valley floor through Schwaz, Pill and Weer. After 28kms, at Weer they now start to cross over to the other side of the A12 and the Inn river and approach the bottom of the climb.

The climb starts from just before Fritzens and is steep right from the bottom and goes on for 5kms at 7.1%, but strangely, the organisers have only given a profile for 2.6kms of it, but those 2.6kms average 10.5%, with sections hitting 13-14%. 

At the top they pass through the second intermediate point at Gnadenwald, rolling along a plateau for almost 3kms before diving back down the mountain side to the valley again. By the bottom of the descent there's only about 8kms to go, and it's quite rolling terrain as they enter the suburbs of Innsbruck, but mostly downhill and quite fast as we saw in the U23 TT. The road drags up for about 2kms to 5kms to go, then descends gently for 4kms and the last 1500m are slightly uphill to the finish in front of the Hofburg Imperial Palace.

Contenders

Got to start with the reigning World Champion, Tom Dumoulin, the 8/11 favourite. Well I say 8/11, but he's 8/11 only with Ladcrookes, and if you are anything like me you probably can only get a few quid on him anyway. I tried to back a rider for the road race last week at 100/1.. they let me have £1 e/w on him. Pathetic. So I went to other bookies to get on. Anyway, I digress on a tangent in the very first paragraph, I'll try to keep it more focused from now on... And I'll reveal who the rider is in my road race preview later in the week!

He's generally the hot 8/13 favourite though, but you should be able to get 5/6 or 9/10, maybe even close to even money closer to the off.. But is he one to have your mortgage on?! Well he crushed the opposition by a wide margin over just 32kms last year, beating the likes of Froome and Dennis by around a minute and a half. It wasn't just a win, it was a demolition.

He's been in great form all round this year, finishing 2nd in both the Giro and the TDF, both results coming on the back of strong time trial performances. He won the short opening TT in Jerusalem in the Giro, but was just 3rd in the longer 34km one on stage 16. That was dead flat though, and he doesn't like flat TTs so much - he even said ahead on Sunday that it was "40kms of flat roads and then the hill.. I'm not looking forward to the 40kms of flat roads, but am looking forward to the hill".

The Tour saw him win the 32km TT on stage 20, bizarrely by less than one second, after the timers had initially shown he had lost to Chris Froome. Geraint Thomas was 14" back, but the rest were 50" and more, with Kung and Castroviejo a minute and a half back. The only other ITT he has done this year is the one at the Abu Dhabi Tour, where he lost out to Dennis by 31".. But that was the TT where his bike had a mechanical and he threw a bit of a wobbler, at the time he was on target to beat Dennis.

He will probably match Dennis pretty close on the flat parts, maybe losing 10-15" on him, but he should more than make it up on the hill, he could beat Dennis by 20" or more going over the hill. He lost out in the TTT on Sunday, but he was taking frequent big pulls, showing his power and stringing out his own team-mates. He'll not be happy to have lost to QSF and barring another mechanical incident, I think he will take all the beating Wednesday.

Rohan Dennis of course is going to be his biggest threat, he's the fastest TT'er in the world on a flat course, he'll make up big time on everyone else before and after the climb. I outlined his credentials already in the TTT preview, he's in amazing form, winning both TTs in the Vuelta, but he too will be stinging after finishing only 3rd in the TTT on Sunday. Not only did they finish 3rd, but they were 19" behind QSF, quite the gulf. Although, having said that, they were just 1" slower than Sunweb, so the Dennis Vs Dumoulin Duel Part I basically finished in a draw.

As I said, he will probably be fastest in the first 40kms, but will he pull out enough of a lead to make up what he will lose on the climb? Because he will lose time to Dumoulin on the climb, he's not as good at going uphill as the big Dutchman. That 2.6kms in the profile of the climb above at 10.5% will hurt him and he could lose a substantial amount of time here to Dumoulin. It's whether he loses too much to lose overall to him is the question.

Vasil Kriyienka - hot and cold, hard to know which Kiryienka will turn up from one TT to the next. Not been great in TTs this year again, but he has been top 10 in all the ITTs he's done this year, including 3rd in Itzulia when Sky were wearing their 'illegal' skinsuits and placed 4 men in the top 7. He spent the rest of the year though doing his usual selfless teamwork for his team leaders, but had a bit of fun in London at the TOB going off on a solo TT training spin off the front for about 20kms.

He's 3rd favourite, he should go well on the flat sections and might not lose too much time on the hill part, but I think it's highly unlikely he'll best the top two here.. But then again, I don't think anyone really expected QSF to beat both the top two in the TTT, so strange things can happen..

Tony Martin is a multiple former World Champion, winning in 2016, '13, '12 and '11.. After losing his way a bit in the lead up to the 2016 World Championships he went back to his old time trialling position and promptly destroyed the field. Known for regularly shredding his shorts (and buttocks) as a result of putting sandpaped on his saddle to keep him in the right position, Martin is a machine who will gobble up those opening flat 40kms.

The problem is what happens when he hits the hill, he'll struggle more than most, definitely more than Dumoulin and Dennis. He's not the best climber and he won't be able to keep the same sort of power profile going as those two so it will disrupt his rhythm quite a lot. In the TTT on Sunday, they were doing ok, they went through the first intermediate, at the time, in 1st place, 25" faster than CCC, but bad luck hit them on the climb when Nils Politt punctured. Martin, Nathan Haas and Reto Hollenstein had to wait as he changed his bike, as Dowsett and Wurtz had been dropped before that.

Max Schachmann is another German who could be a dark horse here for this, as I said in the TTT preview, he has also been riding extremely strong of late, finishing 4th in the German TT nationals and 3rd in the Euro TT champs, and he finished 8th and 15th in the two Giro TTs. And he's now a World Champion too after helping QSF power to victory on Sunday.

This is a very long course for a young guy like Schachmann, but the German TT and Euros were 45kms each, and the German nationals last year where he finished 4th were over 48kms. The last 5 TTs he has entered, including TTTs have seen him finish 1st, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 4th, he's clearly in very good shape at the moment. All the QSF team seem to be on a different level right now, the bike is very fast and he could well be a lively outsider for a podium shot given the form he's in. But 4th favourite at just 25/1? 

Stefan Kung is so hit and miss at TT'ing of late, it's hard to know how he will go here, he could be 2nd or 3rd or he could be 7th or 8th.. The BMC bike is fast, he's normally fast, but is his form as good as it needs to be? I'm not so sure. 12th in the final TT of the Tour over 31kms was very disappointing, he was a long way back from Dumoulin, and he was way down in 25th last year, losing 2'45" to Dumoulin over 31kms. He probably won't mind the hill as much as some, but I just don't think he's good enough for a top 3 again here, the distance is going to be his achilles heel.

Jonathan Castroviejo took bronze two years ago and comes here with a determined attitude to win a medal again this year. And he could be another with a big chance of challenging for a top 3 placing, he's in great form, has a good bike and will be very suited to this course that combines the need for a lot of flat road power and the ability to climb. He has really improved his climbing this year and has turned in to a super-domestique for the Sky leaders, taking long pulls at the front on climbs, putting lots of rivals under pressure. So he'll come to the hill in a reasonably good position, and he'll climb the hill faster than most, it looks like a course tailor-made for him.

3rd in the 32km Vuelta TT, 7th in the short one, Spanish champion and numerous top 10s in TTs this year, he almost became European Champion a month ago but was denied by 6/10ths of a second. I think he will be very fired up for this and he has all the right ingredients to pull off a very good ride.

Nelson Oliveira is another who has been riding well of late, we backed him for a 4th-9th place finish in the Vuelta TT and he obliged with a 7th place finish, just 15" behind Castro. 4th in the World's last year, just 7" off a bronze medal, he beat Dennis, Martin, Castroviejo and lots more fancied runners, he was one who flew up the climb part of the course last year to make up time on the stronger outright TTers, and we could see him do something similar this year.

He seems to me to be in better form than last year and Movistar did ok in the TTT last Sunday in 6th, there were lots of passengers on that team so he must have been taking some big, strong pulls.

Bob Jungels is another who has just become a World Champion with QSF after the TTT on Sunday. He pulled off a very impressive ride in the 32km TDF TTT in July to take 6th place, besting Roglic, Kung and Castroviejo. He might not have the climbing power of some of the top guys here, but watch him fly along the flatter parts, and as he's part of the all-conquering QSF team, don't be surprised to see him pull off the ride of his life to be involved in the podium battle.

Soren Kragh Anderson and Wilko Kelderman represent Sunweb too as well as TomDum, and both will be looking to land top 10 places. Both are good, solid TTers, SKA has been in superb TTing shape this year, his 2nd in the 34km TT in TDS was a very impressive ride, he really seems to have stepped up a level this year.

Wilko Kelderman came back from a disrupted season to ride well in the Vuelta to finish 10th overall, but I expected better than 17th from him in the final TT. He looked at times like he was really starting to struggle due to a lack of race fitness towards the end of the Vuelta, but then he turned around and rode in to the top 10 with two fine rides in the final two mountain stages.

Victor Campanaerts has basically admitted today on the LottoSoudal website that he thinks the hill is going to be too hard for him, and that 5th to 8th is sort of where he expects to finish. He says he goes better when he has had a chance to prepare, like for the Euros than after two weeks of racing, he was very disappointed with his 12th place in the final TT in the Vuelta.

He says he will enjoy the flat parts, he says that everyone is going to have to keep a lot in reserve for the climb, as that is where the most watts will be needed, and if you fall short on the climb you will lose a lot of time. He says 5th to 8th, I agree with him, he's one for the in-play finishing positions bets with Bet365 if they offer them, 4/6 or better for 4th to 9th should be backed.

Maceij Bodnar is another who regularly pulls off surprise results, but he can be very hit and miss. He won the Polish TT championships this year, but then finished way down in 54th in the 31km TT in the TDF, shipping 3'34" to Dumoulin, a minute and ten seconds per 10kms.. As I say, very hit and miss, more likely to be outside the top 10 than in it with that hill though I reckon.

And finally, Joey Rosskopf, Tejay Van Garderen and Paddy Bevin are three 150/1 outsiders for BMC, Rosskopf could pull off a top ten ride if he rides anything like he did at the Vuelta.. 2nd by tenths of a second from Castroviejo, he was the closest to Dennis, a result not many people saw coming, not even Rosskopf himself. It was a sensational ride over 32kms, he set solid times all through the course and led for quite a while until his team-mate came and destroyed his time.Maybe one for those who like a longshot, the US champion will be giving it everything in his final ride for BMC before his switch to the CCC team.

Tejay is always solid in TTs and will go better than some on the climb, Bevin should also go well, lots of power there but I think Tejay might just have the edge in their 5/6 'pick-em' matchbet. Tejay beat him by 7" in the 34km TT in the Tour of California to Morgan Hill, with U23 World Champ Bjerg 53" back in 6th.

Lots of others will be worth watching, like Ryan Mullen at 500/1, Alex Dowsett at 500/1, Jos Van Emden at 200/1 - but none of these like hills in the slightest so are going to lose large amounts of time to the good climbers.

It looks like it's a coin toss again between Sunweb and BMC, with Dumoulin Vs Dennis part two, but boy how wrong were we all with part one last Sunday. Given the odds they were last weekend, the bookies basically gave it a 100% chance that either BMC or Sunweb would win.. QSF were a bonanza for them, with every win bet on the top two going down the toilet.

This time, it's 62% that Dumoulin will win and 38% that Dennis will win, so again, a 100% chance that one of the two of them will win it.. (Bookies add an over-round, which essentially is their profit margin, that is why the overall odds percentages will add up to over 100% when you include the other riders). I had a sneaking feeling QSF would do well last weekend, that's why I had them for the top 3, but I didn't think they'd go and beat both of the top two. Can Schachmann carry on their incredible season and take the individual title to go with his team title? I think it might be just a bit out of reach for him.

I think Martin, Kiryienka and Kung will lose time on the climb which could see them slip out of the top 3 but Castroviejo and Oliveira could well be two who could run at a similar pace to them up until the climb and gain time on it, and I'd rather be on them at bigger prices. Unfortunately, none of the bookies bar Bet365 are currently offering each-way or even top 3 betting, and the prices at 365 are way lower than the best available as a result, e.g. 22/1 instead of 40/1 for Oliveira. Hopefully some will open a 'Top 3 market' today and we can try backing them to place rather than win, as I can't see them beating both of the top two.

As for the win, I think I have to side with the reigning champ, he will love this combination of power and climbing and he might just shade it by less than 20" to Dennis, with maybe Castroviejo a further 15" back..

Recommendations

4pts win on Tom Dumoulin at 5/6 on Betfair

0.75pts e/w on Jonathan Castroviejo at 25/1 with Bet365

Try to back Oliveira for the top 3 at 6/1 or better if it comes available

Matchbets

TVG to beat Bevin - 2pts at 5/6

Martin to beat Kryienka - 2pts at 11/10

Kung to beat Campanaerts - 1pt at 6/4

More to come if 365 get round to allowing multiples