Details

Published on Sunday, 20 September 2015 23:36

2015 World ITT Championships

Mon 21st and Wed 23rd Sept

So after an enthralling Team Time Trial on Sunday afternoon, we move on to the Individual Time trials this week. First up are the Women's Junior Time Trial and the Mens U23 Time Trial on Monday, followed by the Men's Junior Time Trial and Women's Elite Time Trial on Tuesday and the Elite Men's Time Trial on Wednesday.

Elite Men's TT Preview

So BMC did as I expected them to do and went out and smashed the time trial, winning by almost 12". Etixx-Quickstep ran them close for the first half of the course, but early in the second half of the course BMC started to turn the screw and stretched their lead to around 11", a lead that didn't really waver for all the second half. Dillier wavered and looked like 'doing a Nico Roche' to them, but held in there to finish with them as their fourth man. Dennis looked super strong and I'm really looking forward to seeing him in the Men's TT. Taylor Phinney also looked very powerful and smooth as well and incredibly has finished the year as a World Champion, despite that horrific injury he suffered which kept him out of cycling for over a year. 

One of the big stories of the day though was Tinkoff-Saxo crashing as they approached the second time check, it was a shocker for them, with Michael Valgren touching a wheel in front of him and going down, taking Mick Rogers with him. They hit the ground quite hard at over 60kmph and naturally it took them a while to get back on their bikes and get going again. Just finishing was an achievement as Valgren and Rogers were pretty torn up with road rash, but fortunately no serious injuries.

It was even more disappointing as they appeared to be on a good time as they approached the time check, they looked to be about 3" behind Lotto-JumboNL. We'll never know if they would have finished in the top 3, but it was very disappointing the way it ended up for them. Orica GreenEdge were poor in the second half of the course, and ended up slipping off a podium spot and finishing 54" behind BMC, letting their supporters down at 5/1. Movistar landed a podium spot with a great ride, finishing 23" ahead of OGE. Giant-Alpecin pulled off a pretty decent ride too to finish in 5th, beating Lotto-JumboNL by 14", LJNL having set the fastest time of the day up to that. 

On to a preview of this week's Time Trials then, starting below with a look at the U23s and then the Elite Men's will follow by Tuesday night at the latest. I'd like to try to do a preview for the Ladies TT too if I can find time..

Elite Men's TT Preview

The Routes

The Elite Women, U23 Men and Junior Men & Women will compete for Individual Time Trial championships on a technical course that winds through the city of Richmond.

They head west from downtown to Monument Avenue, a pavement-lined, historic boulevard that’s been named one of the “10 Great Streets in America.” From there, the course makes a 180-degree turn at N. Davis Avenue and continues in the opposite direction. The race then cuts through the Uptown district before coming back through Virginia Commonwealth University and then crossing the James River.

After a technical turnaround, the race comes back across the James and works it’s way through downtown Richmond, eventually heading up the 300-meter-long climb on Governor Street. At the top, riders will face a false flat 680 meters to the finish. Elite Women, U23 and Junior Men will each complete two laps of the 15km circuit and Junior Women will complete one lap. There are no fewer than fourteen ninety-degree turns on the circuit, making a total of 28 ninety-degree bends to negotiate in total on the U23 course. The wind looks like it will be a steady 8-9mph coming from the north-east all day and as it is a circuit it will be hitting them from all sides, but it's not too strong. There is around a 50% chance of rain though, which could make a difference if it is not raining for all the competitors, some might have a slower run than others as a result. Wurtz, for example, is 14th off the ramp out of 52, Mullen is the second last rider off, with Lammertink and Ganna just before him. 

The Elite Men will begin their “race of truth” 20 miles north of Richmond at Kings Dominion, Virginia’s premier amusement park in Hanover County. They will then come past Meadow Event Park, home to the State Fair of Virginia and birthplace of thoroughbred racing legend Secretariat.

After that they head south on long, open straights past the Hanover County Courthouse, the third oldest courthouse still in use in the U.S. and dating back to about 1740.

Long hills on Brook and Wilkinson roads bring the riders back into the city through Virginia Union University, before turning into downtown. Nearly half the turns of the entire route fall within the closing kilometers, the second to last of which is onto the 300-meter-long climb up Governor Street. At the top, riders turn left and finally face a false flat 680 meters to the finish.

These courses are not very technical and have lots of straight lines so should see the big, powerful guys put the hammer down and really power it along. Even when it becomes technical towards the end of the course, the roads are big and wide and should not really be a problem to take bends at speed. Potholes and recessed man-hole covers seem to be the main cause for concern, it is quite bumpy in parts. They will also need to keep a little in the tank for the final climb to the line, if it's really tight the Gold could be won or lost in the last 500m. 

Contenders and Favourites

U23 Time Trial 

Ryan Mullen of Ireland had his heart broken right at the death in the U23 TT last year in Spain, being pipped to the Gold medal by Campbell Flakemore by 0.48 seconds... less than 1 second separated him from a Gold medal. Mullen comes back again this year to try to claim the World Champion's title, but he doesn't face Flakemore or Stefan Keung who finished 3rd last year, as they are now World Tour riders, and World Tour riders aren't allowed to ride in the U23 races. Even though Mullen has joined Cannondale-Garmin, he's still only a stagiare and as such can still compete for the U23 titles, but it will be his last year competing at U23 level.  

As an 18 year old in 2012 he won the Chrono Des Nations U23 Time Trial, and finished 2nd in the European Championships TT, with Matej Mahoric in 3rd and Mads Wurtz back in 8th place, 35" back. He also won the Chrono des Nations in 2013 and this year has taken the Irish national TT title (U23 and Elite) and finished in 8th place in the European Games, against Elite pro riders and ahead of the likes of Ilnur Zakarin. In the U23 TT Championships this year he finished 4th, 18" behind Lammertink, but he was happy with that result, and saw it as a start to the wind up of his preparations for Richmond. He also finished 3rd in the Rás in Ireland, probably his best result on the road to date. 

He is fully fired up for this, has a new bike this year in the Cannodale Slice and the support of a top pro squad (not disrespecting the tremendous job that the An Post team do..) and I really think that he will do the business this year. (actually, it looks like he is still on a Vitus according to these training photos on StickyBottle.. As he is still technically an an Post rider, as he is just a stagiare with Cannodale, he is contracted to ride the Vitus, even though he wants to ride the Slice.. Hopefully it shouldn't make too much of a difference. Thanks @stephen599 for clearing that up!) 

He said after last year's defeat that he has run through last year's race hundreds of times in his head but finds it hard to see where he could have made up the second he needed to take the victory, that he was on the limit the whole way. He's now a year older, stronger and wiser and I think he should be too good for his rivals tonight. Hopefully the weather gods will be kind to him and it doesn't rain late in the day after Wurtz has posted his time. When Bet365 opened with Mullen at 10/3 and Wurtz at evens I took as much of it as I could, and again at 11/4. He is now best price 2/1 with Corals, 13/8 with Bet365.

It has been a really strange market with the bookies for the U23 TT, it has shown that they really don't have a clue at times when it comes to cycling. Bet365 opened with Mullen at 10/3 and Mads Wurtz at evens favourite, where as Paddy Power had Mullen as their 6/4 favourite and Wurtz wasn't even listed in their market! Skybet then must have copied PP's prices as they came out with Mullen at 6/4 and no Wurtz on their market either, Ladbrokes and several others haven't even priced it up yet.. I must admit I had to look up Mads Wurtz to see who Bet365 had made their favourite, but soon realised that he was the guy who pulled off the shock in the Tour of Denmark Time Trial, beating Chris Juul Jensen by 15". He also won the TT in the Tour de l'Avenir and is a past winner of the Junior Paris Roubaix. He is now riding for the ColoQuick team after spending a year with the Cult Energy squad. He's a quality young rider for sure and it looks like it will be between Mullen and Wurtz.

After that you have Filippo Ganna of Italy at 9/1 - Ganna rides for Lampre Merida and is a good rider against the clock also. He won the Chrono Champenois Masculin International just two weeks ago, with 4th favourite for this TT Steven Lammertink of SEG Racing 1'20" behind him in 8th place, and he also won the Junior Chrono des Nations last year. He was only 6th in the U23 Italian TT championships this year though so I'm not sure that level is good enough to beat Mullen. 

Steven Lammertink from the Netherlands is 14/1 and he recently beat Mullen in to 4th place in the UEC U23 Euro Championships, winning it by 4" from Morlan Zmorka, with Mullen 18" back and he also won the Dutch U23 TT championships this year and won the TT at the Tour of Berlin. He was only 14th in the TT last year though, over a minute and a half behind Mullen. He seems to have stepped up a level this year though and I think he could put in a big ride too and could be good enough to take the 3rd place on the podium.

Maximilian Schachman was 5th in the World's last year, 37" behind Mullen and Flakemore, he's 14/1 to win this year with PP, but they are going win only on the market. He finished 2" ahead of Mullen in the European Games in 3rd place. Daniel Eaton is a young rider going places with the Axeon Cycling Team, he showed that with his fantastic 4th place in the US Pro Challenge TT, just 38" behind Rohan Dennis and ahead of Phinney, Bobridge and Kreuziger. That was more hilly than this course though but earlier this year he also won the US U23 TT championships in Lake Tahoe. At 16/1 he could also go close, especially with a raucous home crowd behind him.

Eddie Dunbar from Ireland was only 6/1 with Paddy Power when they opened, while Bet365 were 66/1, an incredible difference, but this wouldn't be Eddie's speciality at all, I think he is possibly capable of a top 10 but is probably not going to make the podium. I'm not even sure the road race even suits him all that much either to be honest. He did a superb TT in the Irish Championships though, finishing just 25" behind Mullen, taking the silver medal in the U23 and the Elite categories also. 

It should be a very close and exciting race, and I may be biased (!) but I really fancy Mullen to avenge his defeat of twelve months ago and become the first Irish World Champion since Mark Scanlon won the Junior Road Title in 1998. 

Full List of competitors and their start times are available here

If you have enjoyed my previews this season, why not help me raise money for Qhubeka by making a donation by clicking on the image below! Let's try to buy some bikes for kids! 

Ryan Mullen to win - I've 3pts at 10/3 and 2pts at 11/4, take the 13/8 with Bet365 2/1 with Corals if you have an account, or pop in a shop.. 

0.5pts each-way on Steven Lammertink at 10/1 with Bet365 

Elite Mens Individual Time Trial

Well that was a major disappointment wasn't it - Ryan Mullen's race was over almost before it began, despite going to 4/5 favourite before he even climbed in to the departure ramp.. Mads Wurtz set a blistering time after going out in the first wave of riders and it was a time that looked like it may be beaten by the later starters as they started coming closer and closer. Miles Scottson was incredibly unlucky, jamming his chain as he was on a storming ride, he was only 7" off Wurtz at the time. Ryan Mullen had gone in to 4/5 and Wurtz went out to 9/4 as it looked like the late starters might have a chance of beating him.

But then the rain came and that was the end of that. In seconds, he was odds against as the rain came down and within about 500m of Mullen's ride Wurtz was short odds on. Mullen looked troubled and distracted to me in his warm up and literally crawled to the first bend and around it. He never looked at his best and he just lost more and more time as the miles ticked by. It's easy to try to blame the conditions changing, but Kamna did manage to come within 21", despite starting behind Mullins. It looks like he just wasn't on a good day and let the disappointment of the weather change get to him. Germany had a good day though with second and third place, an Ullrich look-alike Schachmann taking silver. 

On to the Elite men's TT then and it looks on the face of it like it's between three men - Tony Martin, Rohan Dennis and Tom Dumoulin. Martin has had a topsy turvy kind of year, winning TTs in the Algarve and Romandie but losing TTs that he was expected to win in Paris-Nice and the Tour. Three times World Champion in this discipline, his Tour de France went from being a dream for him with taking the yellow jersey after a fantastic solo win on the cobbled stage, to crashing out the very next day. Since then he has been focusing 100% on recovering and getting to his best condition possible to try to regain his title he lost to Bradley Wiggins last year.

He made a return in the Tour du Poitou Charentes, where he finished 4" behind Malori and 3" behind Castroviejo in 3rd place, a good warm up for him ahead of the World's. He didn't finish the next four races he entered, including the races in Canada, but he showed in the TTT on Sunday that he is in superb shape, pushing Etixx-QS all the way, and in to second place. He said after he was really pleased with his shape and power and is looking forward to this TT. It is a course that should suit him, he will be able to get his immense power down on the long straights. If he comes here with his A-Game there will be very few who will be able to stop him. He opened at 1/2 with PP but over the last week or so has drifted to an almost backable price of 20/19 with 888Sport on the back of the support for Dennis.

Rohan Dennis opened at 10/1 last week and unfortunately I missed that monster price - by the time I got to it he was already 6/1 but I still thought that was tremendous value, I had him as being close to favouritism with Martin for this. He has had a fantastic year, starting with a win in the TDU at the start of the year, breaking the hour record temporarily, doing brilliantly in the USA Pro Challenge, winning the TT and the overall and just Sunday driving his BMC team to the World TTT title again. 

He was awesome in the Team Time Trial Sunday by all accounts, and you could see he was taking big hard pulls at the front that were putting Dillier under pressure at the back. Phinney said afterwards that Dennis is now riding at another level and you could see in the TV footage what Oss thought of Dennis as they passed the line and he put his hand on his back and screamed in his ear. I think he has a massive chance of challenging Martin for this title, and Martin may be left disappointed with silver again this year. 

Tom Dumoulin is going to be an interesting one - He seemed to go well enough in the TTT as he helped Giant-Alpecin to an impressive 5th place. I was worried about him for these World's, whether he'd be over the physical and mental battering he took at the end of the Vuelta. He seemed to go ok at the TTT though and the team are reportedly doing their best to lift his spirits. It was interesting though today to read an interview with him in CyclingTips, that he feels he has lost weight and muscle because of improving his other skillset, climbing in particular, and he's still not sure how he will go on Wednesday - “I feel strong but I will see on Wednesday. Wednesday could be really good or disappointing”. 

....Now that was on Monday. On Tuesday, apparently he has a pretty nasty saddle sore, that is so bad that his participation was in doubt for a while. A later statement from the Dutch has said that he will ride regardless, but it muddies the water even more.. is he bluffing? Will he be too tired? Too many question marks for me. 

So the third spot on the podium is possibly up for grabs - and there are a whole host of riders behind the top three who will be fighting tooth and nail for the podium. Third last off is Vasil Kiryienka and the Belarussian will be looking to go one better than last year when he missed out on the podium by just 7", finishing in 4th place. He also finished 4th in 2013 but did manage to snag a medal in 2012 when he finished in 3rd behind Martin and Phinney. He rode a brilliant TT in the wet in the Giro but didn't do so well in the Vuelta TT, when fading in to 4th place despite being 2nd favourite. He looked to be fatigued that day and again, in the TTT last Sunday he was not at his best as Sky struggled (their crashes didn't help either though to be fair).He is 66/1 to win this with Corals and that looks about right to me, I think he'll be 5th to 10th.

5th last off is the Italian national TT champion Adriano Malori and he has a good chance of a big ride here too, I think the course will suit his powerful style. He warmed up for the World's with a good win in the TT at the Tour du Poitou Charentes, beating Castroviejo, Martin and Dowsett.  He was 3rd in the Eneco Tour TT, but that was over a much shorter course of 14.9kms, 4th in the Tour de Suisse behind Dumoulin, Spilak and Cancellara. In fact, he has finished in the top 4 in nine of the ten ITTs he has entered this year, winning four of them, which is a remarkably consistent statistic. He is 22/1 with the bookies paying 3 places each-way (Sky, PP), so if you back him thinking he'll take the 3rd podium spot, it pays a return of 3.4/2 or 1.7/1, which is marginally better than the 13/8 Bet365 are offering for a top 3 finish. But he is also 2.35/1 on Betfair's top 3 market if you can get on that.

Taylor Phinney - already a gold medal winner this year after the TTT, he has also finished in 2nd in the Individual TT in 2012 and 5th in 2013 and 2010 he won the U23 ITT Gold Medal, beating Durbridge, Kittel, Oliveira and Dennis, a pretty stellar top 5. He is clearly getting stronger and stronger and will come here a lot fresher than the likes of Dumoulin and Kiryienka. He showed in the USA Pro Challenge and the Tour of Utah that he is in good shape, taking a 1st, 2nd and a 3rd place, and he looks to be coming to these World's in great form. With the home crowd screaming him on I think he could put on a big show and could set a good time with 13 riders left to go. One to watch for the 'To take provisional lead' market in play maybe. 

Alex Dowsett is 100/1 for this, a big looking price, but I can't argue that it should be any shorter, I don't think he'll be breaking on to the podium here. He's had an ok year on the TT bike, but not great and nothing really he has done this year says to me he's going to be in the top 3. 

We're now heading in to the long shots, but quite a few of these longshots could still put in big rides - we saw with the U23 Men's TT and the Women's TT that favourites mean nothing and that early starters can throw cats amongst the pigeons by setting a good time that can last for a long time, in Wurtz case for more than 2 hours.

Matthias Brandle is a former hour record holder and a strong triallist, but he hasn't really had a great year against the clock and even at 200/1 he doesn't appeal to me. Jonathan Castroviejo seemed to have lost some of his time trialling mojo last year, but seems to have got it back somewhat again this year. 2nd in the Tour du PC just 1" behind Malori and followed up his Spanish TT title with a decent 6th in the Tour's opening TT. He seems to be a 5th to 10th kind of guy also though tomorrow at best.

Maciej Bodnar rode a brilliant TT in the Vuelta to finish 2nd, only beaten at the death by a flying TomDum. He only rode a half a Team Time Trial mroe or less on Sunday as the crash killed their chances before the second time check and he is capable of putting on a big show again tomorrow. He has never won a TT though and his best result in the World's TT is 9th in 2010.

The last two riders I think have some chance of a top 10 showing are Portugal's national TT champion, Nelson Oliveira, who is 300/1, the same price as the Colombian national TT champion Rigoberto Uran. Oliveira showed in the Vuelta that he is in great shape at the moment, winning a stage and coming 2nd in another. 7th last year in the World's and 4th in the U23 ITT in 2010, what's surprising is that he hasn't really got great results outside of the World's in recent years. If you take away his three national titles (but let's face it, competition is thin in the Portuguese TT championships) he has never won a pro TT, a 3rd place in the Circuit Cyclist Sarthe in 2012 probably his best result. 

Rigo Uran is looking strong at the moment with a superb victory in the GP de Quebec just a few weeks back. He showed a lot of power that day to ride away from a very strong pack. He is a very powerful man on a TT bike for a 'climber' and he has won a TT in the Giro and finished 3rd in another, finished 2nd in a TT in the Vuelta and 4th in the Tour of Romandie, so he has shown that he is capable of a top 3 finish in big races. What is surprising though is that he has never ridden in the World's Time Trial before, he must fancy it this year to say that he is going for it. At 300/1 he could cause a surprise.   

It looks though like it could be a fantastic showdown between Dennis, Martin and Dumoulin as they battle to beat the times set by Uran and Phinney. I think Dennis has a great chance of capping his great year and taking the Gold, but there might only be seconds in it. Adriano Malori has a chance of breaking on to the podium too if it all goes well for him. As I am on Dennis at 6/1 and Martin is probably the only guy who will beat him I think, as he is now a backable price around evens he is worth a small saver.  

Recommendations 

I have 3pts win on Rohan Dennis at 6/1 with PP, there is 5/2 still available on him

1.5pts win on Tony Martin at evens with Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Adriano Malori at 22/1 with Skybet, 1pt on Malori to finish in the top 3 on Betfair at 3.35

0.2pts each-way on Rigo Uran at 300/1 with PP

Matchbets

Bodnar to beat Bialablocki, Dowsett to beat Brandle and Kung to beat Hepburn - 2pts on the treble at evens with 365

Jan Barta to beat Castroviejo - 1pt at 5/6 with 365

Rohan Dennis to beat Dumoulin - 4pts at 4/9 with Ladbrokes

Van den Broeck to beat Zakarin - 2pts at 8/15

LL Sanchez to beat Tanel Kangert - 2pts at 10/11

Full List of competitors and their start times are available here

If you have enjoyed my previews this season, why not help me raise money for Qhubeka by making a donation by clicking on the image below! Let's try to buy some bikes for kids!