Stage 7

Stage 7 - Nice to Col de la Couillole

Saturday March 11th, 177kms

Finally a bit of joy with a brilliant stage victory for Simon Yates at 33/1 in today's stage. His attack was bold and brilliant and exactly what I hoped might happen - the GC men ignored him a little when he went, to their detriment. It was so nearly a 30pt day, only Alaphilippe finished 1 place behind Porte to bust the accas.. We'll settle for 17pts profit though to repair the damage of what has been a very frustrating and disappointing race so far.

Dan Martin was an excellent team-mate today dragging Alaphilippe up the last 500m, almost pushing him ahead of him in the closing metres, I guess he thought they were riding for 3rd place and bonus seconds. Porte regained some pride, but it still wasn't good enough, Henao left him well behind. If Yates hadn't won the stage, we'd have been raving about Henao's brilliant victory. The cream are really rising to the top though and there were only about 20 guys there at the finish today fighting it out, we may see something similar tomorrow.

Over in Tirreno, a crash derailed Gaviria's charge, but I'm not sure he'd have stopped Sagan who was imperious again in his sprint up the hill. Modolo won his matchbet against Mezgec by one place, I thought my luck was in, but then Porte wins by one place over Alaphilippe!

 

They have really back-loaded this race with the interesting and challenging stages, with the penultimate stage also being a cracker with three Cat 1 climbs, including the final ascent to the line to the Col de la Couillole, a mountain top finish not used before in Paris-Nice. 

They start the day in Nice, so at least the riders get to stay in the same hotel beds for two nights. As they head inland they zig-zag their way north over 177kms through the hills and valleys of the Alpes Maritimes. After a nice little jaunt along the coast for a few kilometres to get out of Nice they turn rights and head towards the first climb of the day, the Cote de Gattieres, a 4.5km Cat 2 that averages 4.8%. They head west and through a sprint point after just 19kms, so if the race is still tight, expect the peloton to be still together and possibly the GC men sprinting for seconds.. 

Once that is out of the way you will have the break hopefuls dash past them to try to get away on the first big climb of the day, the Col de Vence, a Cat 1 climb of 9.7kms at 6.6%. The road actually keeps rising gently for 8kms after the KOM point, taking them through Coursegouls and shortly after they start a descent which goes on for the best part of 30kms. It's a tricky and twisty descent that takes them eventually on to Gilette, hope there were no close shaves on the way down.. (I'll get my coat........)

As they pass the feed station at Utelle after 100kms they actually start climbing again, as they head towards the next climb of the day, the Col Saint Martin (La Colmaine). They are actually climbing for about 40kms by the time they reach the summit, but the Categorised part of the climb is 7.5kms at 7.2%. Half way up the climb they pass the second intermediate sprint, but that's likely to be taken by the breakaway. Nearly 20kms of a twisty descent takes them to the base of the final climb up to the Col de la Couillole.

This is the first time this climb has been used in Paris-Nice, or the TDF. It looks nasty though, a long one at 15.7kms, and a steep one that averages 7.1%. It's a remarkably steady climb though as you can see in the picture below, almost a straight line gradient, with the last 2kms averaging 7.9%. It's going to be a real slog, a real climbers climb, with no changes in gradient really to break the rhythm.

 

 So how does today's stage affect tomorrow's potential outcome? Well, Contador tried an attack today, but a lot of them, Contador included, looked out on their feet at the end of the day. 

This race is far from over - this stage could really shake up the top ten again and they still have the final stage around Nice and the Col d'Eze to come on Sunday. This stage could well be one for the break too and its likely we will see a strong group of climbers get away on the very first hill as they leave Nice, if not, definitely on the Col de Vence. It may even be that some guys get away on the first climb and it comes back together a little and then the decisive one goes on the Col de Vence.

The stage is not overly long at 177kms, but it's rolling up and down all day and any stage that features three Cat 1 climbs is going to be tough, especially when one of those is nearly 16kms long at the end of the stage. 

Let's look at break candidates first, as I give the break about a 60% chance of making it today. I think you need to be strong and have shown some form this season (and this week) in order to get away on the early climbs and to hold a gap all the way to the final climb to give yourself a chance of winning. There will be some will go pop on the Col Saint-Martin, so it could be quite a small group that comes to the final hill together.

I had David de la Cruz in mind for this stage too, but watching how he worked for Alaphilippe today and fell away near the finish suggests he has a job to do and is not going to be let go up the road. Jakob Fuglsang is an interesting one - he is way down on the GC after getting caught out like so many others on the opening stages, he should have some freedom to attack and looked strong today to finish 7th. His form wasn't as good as last year's in Oman but he has the class and the power to try to get in this break and get something out of the race. Jarlinson Pantano again is another who could go go on the attack, I think this final climb could suit him well. Arnold Jeanneson, Lilian Calmejane, Tsgabu Grmay, Davide Villella, Omar Fraile, Romain Hardy, Winner Anacona - all potential candidates for the break and are worth a shot on some of them, Anacona was active today in the breaks.

Warren Barguil was disappointing in that TT, coming home in 51st, even beaten by Arnaud Démare, but I wouldn't rule him out of trying his luck in the break either here, he rode much better today to finish with the main pack. Mikel Nieve has been very quiet for Sky in recent months, in fact, if you take out his strong showing in the Giro last year, he only finished in the top 10 once since his 6th in Lombardia in October 2015. He did alright in Andalucia though, with two good rides on the first stage that saw him secure 13th overall in the GC. He was working hard in the train for Henao today though, so unless they change tactics and let him go up the road he might not get a chance.. 

As for the GC guys, well it all depends on how the rivals to Alaphilippe want to ride the stage. Quickstep are just going to control things, as long as there are no GC dangers in the break, so it will be up to the others to try to break it up and put him under pressure. And the way to do that would be with relentless pressure over the last 70kms or so over the final two climbs.

But what if we see Alberto Contador do what Alberto Contador does best and attack the field early himself? He tried it today but it failed, maybe it was just a feeler for tomorrow. The first climb is too early to go probably, but I wouldn't put it past him - why not attack them from the outset, put Quickstep under so much pressure that Alap only has maybe Dan Martin with him heading to the final two climbs, and keep attacking him until he breaks? We've seen him try ballsy moves like that in the past, and he's not that far off the lead.

If he can get a strong group of some of the GC men and some break hopefuls to go with him in the opening 30kms, they might hold a steady lead of a minute or two along the valley as they tap out the same speed as the chasers. And they can then extend that lead as the road goes upwards over the final two climbs. He may not win the stage, if he does a lot of work out on the road, but wouldn't it be great to see him light it up.. He has chances too of course should the race just result in a normal break being reeled in on the final climb and Contador tries a late attack. 

Richie Porte could attack on this finish too, the gradient suits him perfectly, not too steep, more like Willunga Hill, just depends on what he's got in his legs and what's going on in his head.. He looked confident ahead of the final climb today, Roche buried himself for him and he gave it a real go, but had no answer when Henao blasted past him. This finish is more his cup of tea though and he could be a real danger now.. As a Monaco resident he knows these roads and climbs well.. 

I thought about Ilnur Zakarin too, but feel he just isn't looking strong enough this week., And as for Dan Martin - it's a real pity that Alaphilippe is leading as he will be working for him again. I think that if that wasn't the case, and if no one has managed to get away up to the last 3 or 4kms, Martin might give it a go. He might still give it a go in the last kilometre if it's still all together - he won't take enough time to take the lead off of Alaphilippe, but he could move on to the podium while the others watch Alaphilippe. 

Could this be what Sergio Luis Henao has really been waiting for? He has hung in there and bided his time, and launched a blistering attack today, moving himself on to the podium spots in 3rd place. A big attack from him here could see him take 30" or more and a 10" bonus, and all of a sudden he'll be right in it with the final stage over the Col d'Eze to come. I think he will give it a go and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the first 3 here, he can go with the likes of Porte and Contador and would have a good finish in him. 

If Diego Ulissi can hang in there he has a big chance on a finish like this if it comes down to a sprint from a small group. The last 500m average around 7.8%, which will suit him perfectly and he'd have the best sprint of the likely guys in the final group. The question is can he hang in there - if there are multiple attacks and a furious pace over the last 10kms he might struggle, but he did very well today to hang in there on far steeper gradients to take 11th place. 

Simon Yates - will he be able to repeat that feat twice in two days? I'm not so sure.. It would have taken a lot out of him and he'll be a marked man next time.. But he looked so good today, I wouldn't put it past him. Sam Oomen did well again today, as did Patrick Konrad and Tony Gallopin to finish with the lead group, but I can't see them winning tomorrow. Ion Izagirre did well in that climb to Fayence to finish in 6th, leading home Contador and Zakarin, he looks overpriced at 50/1. 

Ok - now I've seen the prices, Richie looks too short to me at 11/4 and Henao is pretty short too at 10/3, but in a match bet I'd be on Henao I think so I'm picking Henao as my most likely winner from a GC outcome.. Ion Izagirre looks too big at 50/1 and I'm going to scatter a few at bigger odds for break chances. 

Over in Tirreno, Quintana looks the most likely winner and should take the race lead which he may not relinquish - as I think Alaphilippe can hang in there in PN I am having a GC win double on them both at 3.7/1 with 365

 

Recommendations

2pts win on Segio Henao at 10/3 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Jakob Fuglsang at 22/1 with 365

0.3pts each-way on Ion Izagirre at 50/1 with 365

0.2ptrs each-way on Nico Roche at 100/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Lillian Calmejane at 125/1 with 465

0.2pts each-way on Arnold Jeannesson at 80/1 with PP

2pts win double on Alaphilippe and Quintana to win the GC in both races at 3.7/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

Ion Izagirre to beat Yates - 1pt at 13/8

Fuglsang to beat Barguil, Frank to beat Grmay - 2pts on the double at 1.6/1 with 365 

 

 

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Stage 8

Stage 8 - Nice to Nice

Sunday March 12th, 115.5kms

So Richie finally gets his stage win, I'm regretting not going with my gut feeling that he would go well on his 'home' roads, but his dominance in the stage was a bit surprising. Henao had no answer and was even passed by the dogged Dan Martin in the final metres for 3rd place. It was close but no cigar for some of our picks today, with Calmejane giving us a good run for our money out front all day, and Fuglsang and Izagirre riding well too to take 5th and 6th place. The matchbets came in to notch a small profit on the day, the 13/8 on Izagirre beating Yates was particularly tasty. Unfortunately, despite Quintana doing the business in Tirreno, that GC double has gone south with Alaphilippe's collapse. 

Alaphilippe had a tough day, he cracked pretty badly a long way from the finish and came in 2'40" down to give up the race lead. Henao now leads by 30" from Dan Martin with Contador just 1" further back in 3rd. It means that Henao is well and truly in the driving seat now, but the race may not be over yet, Contador and Martin will fight him all the way to the finish. Alaphilippe may now turn helper for Martin and it could be all out attack from Quick-Step in this final stage. 

This is a very similar stage to the final stage of last year, but they have knocked 20kms off of it by not going so far inland to take on the Cote Duranus, instead cutting across east away from Gilette which they passed through 24 hours before. They head north out of Nice and eventually start the stage proper after more than 10kms of a neutralised zone.. They continue north and turn east at St Martin du Var, and basically now start on the same course as last year as they hit the first climb after 21kms, the Cote de Levens, a Cat 2 of 6.2kms at 5.5%, which was the second climb on the stage as last year.

Without really descending off the mountain they continue east on the same route as last year and after 31.6kms they start the Cote de Chateauneuf, a Cat 2 climb of 5.4kms at 4.4%. This time they do descend for about 8kms but then hit the Col de Calaison and start climbing again after 45kms (6.3kms at 4.4%). 

Another short descent and they are soon on to the Cote de Peille, a Cat 1 climb of 6.5kms at 6.9%, a nasty little climb that peaks out with 47kms to go.. They descend back to the coast and start on the loop that takes them up and over the Col d'Eze, They pass through parts of Nice with 26kms to go, but don't quite reach the finish line, turning up right instead to go over the famous Col d'Eze.

This climb is well used in Paris Nice, in recent years it's been used as an uphill TT venue which Richie Porte has dominated, but last year it was where Contador put Thomas under huge pressure, until he dropped him, but Sergio Henao rescued victory from the jaws of defeat for him, by dragging him up the hill and down the other side to the finish. It's a Cat 1 climb of 7.7kms at 5.7%, but rises and falls at varying gradients as you go up, so it's hard to get a good rhythm on it. 

Once over the top, there's just 14kms to go, 12.5kms of which is the very fast descent on the big wide highway back to Nice. There is a small lump to get over as they approach the Flamme Rouge, it pulls up at 4.6% for 500m, then its the charge to the finish for the last kilometer.

 

Last year's top four saw Tim Wellans and Tony Gallopin sandwich Alberto Contador and Richie Porte, so it showed that you don't have to be a pure climber to do well on this stage. The climbs are manageable if you are strong enough, and the stage is short - even shorter than last year at only 115kms, a Sunday club run for many. But at the same time, most of the top twenty was made up of what you would consider to be climbers - Porte, Contador, Henao, Izagirre, Zakarin, Yates and Costa. 

As I said above - this is a very short stage - it should hopefully encourage attacking right from the start and it could be a wild stage. The weather should be fine, there is a very small chance of showers, but generally will be a fine day with low winds of around 6-8mph. 

Even the descent off the Cote de Peille could be important - it's almost 25kms long, so some might be able to get back on ahead of the pull up to the Col d'Eze, but also, good descenders will be able to really stretch it out and extend their advantages possibly. Team-mates and alliances will be very important.  

Alberto Contador will not let this race go lightly, this is a perfect stage for him, it's short and there are lots of hills to attack on, right from the start. He might wait until the Cat 1 Cote de Peille though, as it's the steepest gradient of the day at nearly 7% and there are only about 50kms to go once over the top, 25kms of which are a descent back to Nice. But how can he shake off Henao who will be protected by the likes of Deignan (who has been superb this week), Nieve and Seb Henao?

It's going to be very hard. He will have to attack, he will attack.. it's guaranteed almost, but it's going to be very hard to find 31". But with a bonus sprint coming just 13kms from the finish in Eze, and with 10" available on the line, Contador (or Martin) can pick up up to 13" of the 30/31" required to take the win. A win by 20" or so could win the race. But can he do it? He looked good today in dropping Henao, he looked good on this stage last year when dropping Thomas. He will need someone like Martin, who has an equally vested interest in winning the race to go with him and try to break Henao. 

But who is going to win the stage? I don't think the break wins tomorrow as there is too much to fight for in the GC and the bonus seconds in Eze will be hotly fought over, I think the break will be reeled in on the Peille, and if not, on the Col d'Eze for sure. There are about 20 riders who seem to be a level above the rest in this race and we'll probably see most of the same faces at the front again tomorrow. Porte will be active, as like today's stage, he knows the roads around here like the back of his hand.. If he can get a gap on the final climb, he could time trial to the finish solo. 

Julian Alaphilppe has been made the 9/2 favourite by Bet365, and I just don't know about that at all.. He had a very hard day today and will be expected to work for Martin you'd think, although if he can hang in there he'd be one of the better sprinters left. I don't think Dan Martin has the legs to get away from all of these to win solo, he too had a hard day today and left it all on the road. He has a good kick at the finish too though if he was to come to the finish with a small group, plus he's got the extra motivation of the GC being within his grasp. 

Diego Ulissi, Jakob Fuglsang, Tony Gallopin - all have chances here too, if they get to the finish with the leaders. Mauro Finetto too at 22/1 could hang in there, he's riding well at the moment and would have a decent sprint on him at the finish.. But it's the hanging in there could be the problem, it's going to be frantic up front. Fuglsang could have a good chance of a late attack from the leading group on the run in to the finish, he might be one of interest. Michael Matthews is an outsider too who might just hang in there, but I don't think he has the legs this week so I'm ignoring him too. 

It's almost a no bet day tomorrow, I'm struggling to really pick anyone with real confidence. Porte could have a big chance again if Contador, Martin and Henao engage in their own battle. Contador could go nuts tomorrow and attack like we know he can.. but can he hold it all the way to the finish? It will be a hell of a ride if he does. Alaphilippe, Martin, Ulissi - they could be involved too, but how can you pick any of them with confidence.. ? I'm just going to have small bets on Fuglsang and Ulissi, Fuglsang for a late attack and Ulissi if he can hang in there could win the sprint. 

Meanwhile, over in Tirreno it looks like it's going to be a fantastic stage with a really challenging finish around the circuit in Fermo. The stage is lumpy all day with constant ups and downs all day. The break has a chance, but I think it will come down to a frantic charge in to the finish and a battle amongst the main protagonists. The stage may be decided with the hill that comes with just about 3.5kms to go, the pull up to Culmine Salita averages over 14% for 800m, hitting a max of 22%, it tops out with just 3kms to go. There is a false flat for about 2kms and the road rises up again at 6.5% for the last kilometre. 

Peter Sagan has a big chance I think, as long as he can stay near the front on the steep part with 3kms to go.. He doesn't even need to be in the first 10 or 20, as he has the power to pull himself back on in the flat 2kms after the hill. He could then power up the final kilometre faster than anyone else, like we saw the other day when he won his stage in Pomerance. He opened at 20/1, I missed that but took 14/1, he's 12/1 now but that's still worth a small bet I think. Dumoulin is too short in the betting at 8/1 (he opened as 7/1 favourite!) - yes, he's going well and seems to be attacking all the time, but I couldn't be backing him at that price with the talent here. 

Greg Van Avermaet also has a big chance if he is near the front, we know how he can outpsrint Sagan on uphill finishes, one of few riders who can. Adam Yates rode brilliantly today to take 3rd place, but 13/2? No thanks. Uran doesn't seem to have the kick to me to win this at just 13/1, he should be right up there in the top 10, but may not win it. 

Tim Wellens and Michal Kwiatkowski are two more who could attack hard on the steep parts, or just before on the run in to the town, and would have a chance at holding on, Kwiatkowski is in exceptionally good form at the moment. Fabio Felline is another who interests me though, he could hang in there , he's lethal in finishes like this and if he's with a small group on that finish he could well be the strongest in the sprint. 

 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Jakob Fuglsang at 14/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Diego Ulissi at 12/1 with Bet365

 

Tirreno-Adriatico

0.5pts each-way on Fabio Felline at 20/1 with 365

1pt win on Peter Sagan at 14/1 with 365 

 

Matchbets

Quintana to beat Pinot (TA), Roglic to beat Dennis (TA), Ulissi to beat Konrad, Fuglsang to beat Latour - 2pts at 4.22/1 with 365

Costa to beat Mollema - 2pts at 11/10 with 365 in Tirreno

 

 

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