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- Published on Sunday, 26 February 2017 13:53
Paris Nice 2017
Sunday 5th to 12th March
Stage racing in Europe starts in earnest with a double-header this week. Paris-Nice kicks off a busy week of stage racing on Sunday, with Tirreno-Adriatico starting Wednesday the 8th. In recent years Paris-Nice had played second fiddle in terms of attracting the star GC names, but like last year, there is a stellar line-up setting out from Paris this to tackle the 'Route to the Sun'.
Geraint Thomas narrowly won this race last year, thanks to Sergio Henao, who hauled his ass back to close the gap on Contador, after he was dropped on the Col d'Eze. Contador was impressive on the final day, taking the fight to Thomas, but fell agonisingly short. It was a strange situation with Tony Gallopin helping Thomas in the chase back, even though Lotto had the eventual stage winner, Tim Wellens, up the road with Porte and Contador.
Thomas isn't here this year though as he is focusing on the Giro D'Italia this year, he thinks he can be a contender there.. Alberto Contador is back though, and the two-time winner warmed up for this with a trip out to the Abu Dhabi Tour, but played games with Quintana on the only climb of the race, and rolled in 1 minute behind Rui Costa. Before that though he went well in Andalucia, losing out to Valverde by just a single second, possibly lost when he had to brake for a stray dog in the time trial.
Richie Porte is also back to try to regain the title he won in 2013 and 2015, both times thanks to the TT up the Col d'Eze. There is no Col d'Eze TT this year, but there is a TT to Mont Brouilly over 14.5kms, the last 3.5kms all uphill, averaging 6.6%, something he is probably looking forward to..
Add in Ion Izagirre, who might well have won the Vuelta a Andalucia had he not crashed in the time trial; Romain Bardet who disappointed in Oman and Abu Dhabi; Dan Martin who took a fine stage win in the Algarve; Ilnur Zakarin who finished 2nd in Abu Dhabi and 4th here last year; Sergio Henao who was so crucial to Thomas's win last year and may well get the captains armband this year for Sky; Jacob Fuglsang, Diego Ulissi, Joe Dombrowski, Pierre Rolland, Julian Alaphilippe, Mathias Frank, warren Barguil, Steven Kruijswijk and a whole load more and you can see what a quailty lineup they have this year.
The weather
The weather is always important for Paris Nice, as France in March can be all sorts - wind, rain, frost, snow and even sun as well. Last year they had to abandon one of the key stages, stage 3 to Mont Brouilly 93kms in due to heavy snow on the earlier climbs. They return to Mont Brouilly this year for the TT on stage 4, they should be ok snow-wise, but their problem all week looks like being the rain.. It looks like it's going to rain practically all week.
The wind doesn't look to be too bad though, it could be a lot worse, with the wind speed generally between 8-12mph, shifting from being a south-westerly in the first few stages to a north-westerly in the later stages.
2015 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geraint Thomas | Team Sky | 27h 26min 40s |
| 1 | Alberto Contador | Tinkoff | at 04s |
| 3 | Richie Porte | BMC Racing | at 12s |
The Route
The route for the 2017 Paris Nice is a bit of a strange one, the first part of the race is really pretty boring with long, flat stages that are likely to all end in sprint finishes, unless the wind whips up out on the flat open roads. Then the TT pops up on stage 4 and it will be the first opportunity to start to arrange the GC.
Stage 5 is another one for the sprinters before they start climbing properly on stage 6, when they take on three Category 1 climbs and an uphill finish to Faence that averages nearly 10% for 1.3kms. It could even be decided on the descent off the Col de Bourigaille, as even a 20" advantage could be enough to hang on over the final kilometre.
Stage 7 is pretty challenging as they are climbing for nearly 55kms of the last 77kms, with the two Cat 1 climbs of the Col de Saint Martin and the Col de la Couillole, the Couillole being a nasty new climb that is nearly 16kms at an average of 7.7%. The final stage is the familiar route around Nice that takes in most of the same route as last year's memorable final stage, including the climb up the Col d'Eze.
The time differences on the TT may be small amongst the GC guys, maybe 30" will cover most of the main candidates, so it will come down to the last two stages and possibly even the ascent (and descent) of the final stage.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Bois d'Arcy to Bois d'Arcy
Sunday, March 5th, 148.5kms
A relatively short and flat opening stage with a sting in the tail with a little kick up with 2kms to go that goes on for 1km to the Flamme Rouge.
They start out from Bois d'Arcy on the fringes of the Versailles Palace gardens and basically just do two laps of a 70km circuit that takes them over the little climb of the Cote de Senlisse twice (1.1kms at 5.5%).
There are two sprints at 55kms and with 16kms to go, and the second one could be keenly fought over in the fight for the early yellow and green jerseys. The finish sees them climbing gently for the last 5kms, with a kick up at 6.7% for 1km up the Cote de la Batterie (see the picture below), that's Cauberg type gradient, it may well shake out some of the sprinters from the pack..
Once over the top there is a short little descent for 500m, then the last 500m is slightly uphill on a straight road, so those sprinters that have hung in there will battle it out.
The way Bet365 have priced it up they too aren't sure how this is going to play out - Marcel Kittel is the shortest price rider and he's 5/1.. if it was a straight-forward sprint, he'd be even money.. But, I'm going to start by saying I don't think Kittel will make it over this hill at the front of the race, so I'm not interested in him. I think the pace is going to be furious over the last 20kms and it will start exploding I think as they approach the second intermediate sprint in Beynes, as the road climbs on the rise up to the sprint.. if some teams want to really start to put the pressure on they could cause some splits here ahead of the final 5kms.
As I mentioned above, this hill is similar to Cauberg type gradients and distance, so we should concentrate on two kinds of riders - sprinters who can hang on over the hill to fight it out, and late attackers on the climb, like Philippe Gilbert on the Cauberg. The fact that the next 500m after the top of the little climb is downhill and then only 500m to the line, it could see a late, strong breaker hang on ahead of the pack.
Sprinters then - Michael Matthews jumps out as one who can hang in there and be a key player in the sprint, he has finished 3rd and 5th in Amstel Gold. He's only starting his first race of the season though, for a new team in Sunweb, so it is difficult to know just how he'll go. He does start his seasons really well though, even if he starts very late compared to others. Last year in Paris Nice, his first race of the season also, he won the prologue and stage 2, as well as finishing 3rd, 5th and 5th and led the race up until stage 6. I give him a good chance here - he has great support in Nik Arndt, Roy Curvers, Tom Stamsnijder and Simon Geschke, I think they will be massing at the front coming in to the last 3kms and will lead over the climb. Will he be good enough to win the sprint? He'll come very close.
Looking at Amstel Gold of last year though - who finished in front of Matthews? Bryan Coquard did.. He is better at getting over lumpy little hills than you'd think and he'd be one of the fastest sprinters here in a situation like this. Sylvain Chavanel and Adrien Petit will look after him and he can hang on to the wheels of the Orica guys. At 13/1 he could be worth a bet.
Second favourite for the stage though is John Degenkolb, and the big German will have a good chance of hanging in there over that hill too, he's won lots of races on hilly courses, including Milan San Remo of course. But will Trek be giving him their full support with Contador's GC ambitions? I think they might leave him up to himself a little and make sure that Contador doesn't get caught out on the wrong side of any splits, he may just have someone like Edward Theuns looking after him. That may count against him.
Can Nacer Bouhanni hang in there? Again, it's very possible, he's capable of doing so and has done so in the past. He will have a powerful leadout here for him to drag him up the hill with Geoffrey Soupe, Julien Simon, Florian Senechal, Cyril Lemoine and Christophe Laporte, or even if he's tailed off a little they might just get him back.. But I think he might struggle just a little bit and they may find themselves too far back coming in to the last 500m to get him up on time.
Alexander Kristoff has to be a big danger here too, if he can get over the hill at the front. But like with Contador and Trek, will Katusha be too busy looking after Zakarin? It's possible.. but they might send Tony Martin and Michael Morkov with him to try to get him involved.
Arnaud Démare can hang in there too possibly, he's a winner of MSR too of course. But I was disappointed with him in KBK, he should have done better to get up to the front when Sagan went - Rowe and Benoot got across, Démare didn't have the strength to join them. I don't want to be let down by him two weeks in a row so I'm going to leave him, I think in a straight sprint, Coquard can beat him anyway.
Sonny Colbrelli, Sam Bennett, Niccolo Bonifazio - three more sprinters who could hang in there and get involved in the sprint. Colbrelli went well in Dubai and Oman, taking two 3rds and a 2nd place finish. Bonifazio has also been going well with top 5 placings in the TDU and Abu Dhabi, Bahrain Merida need to decide who is their chosen rider here or they both could miss out. Bennett took a Crit in Austalia at the start of the season and 3rd in the first stage of the TDU. He went ok in KBK last weekend, but with Sagan out front he was never going to get a chance to feature. If he can hang in there over the climb he too would have a chance as Bora's main sprinter here. The 50/1 on him looks tempting too.
Dylan Groenewegen, Ben Swift and Magnus Cort Neilsen can also maybe get up there, but the dangers to the sprinters could come from the late attackers - guys like Julian Alaphilippe who finished in 6th place in Amstel Gold, just behind Matthews, he could possibly attack away on the climb and is strong enough to hold off the chasers. Diego Ulissi is another one who can possibly try to do the same, he's tempting at 50/1, as is Simon Gerrans and Philippe Gilbert who seems to be riding well at the moment too. Tom Jelte Slagter at 125/1, Oliver Naesen at 80/1 and Enrico Gasparotto at 80/1 are others who could have a chance on this finish.
I'm going to sway in the direction that we will have a slightly reduced group of sprinters coming to the finish, but I think Michael Matthews will have the dominant team and the power to finish this. Bryan Coquard could be his big danger though if he can hang in there, and he should be backed too. Keeping the stakes small though as this is a ridiculously hard stage to call and any one of about ten guys could realistically win this.
And also - Bet365 were the only ones out with prices on Friday night, you might get better prices than these with the others when they finally get around to pricing it up. GC men need to keep on their toes too though to avoid any splits, I'm almost certain there will be time gaps and you don't want to stupidly lose any time on the very first day.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Bryan Coquard at 13/1 with Bet365
1pt each-way on Michael Matthews at 7/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Coquard to beat Cort Neilsen, Degenkolb to beat Démare, Matthews to beat Swift - 2pts on the treble at 9/4 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Rochefort en Yvelines to Amilly
Monday, March 6th, 195kms
A crazy, crazy day today - if you picked Arnaud Démare today, well done to you, but I can't imagine there were many out there celebrating at the finish, it was another bookies bonanza like yesterday's Strade result.. The race was blown apart in the wind and rain as FDJ had a plan and executed it to perfection. GC men were in trouble early on with Richie Porte, Alberto Contador and Ilnur Zakarin caught in the second group, with Julian Alaphilippe, Dan Martin, Sergio Henao and Ion Izagirre up front.
The pace was brutal up front and one by one riders started to fall off, including Izagirre - the unfortunate victim of an untimely touch of wheels when he ended up going off the road and in to mud. Up front it looked like it would be a battle between Kristoff, Kittel and Greipel, but as the road started to rise up to the finish it found the sprinters out as I expected it to and it was Alaphilippe kicked things off. Arnaud Démare decided to wind me right up by being super-strong today and bridging across to Alaphilippe, unlike last week in KBK and sprinting to victory.
As for Coquard? Well he did great to be in the lead group, hung around the back all day and looked to be comfortable enough, but then suddenly he went out like a light and couldn't even stay with the second group when they came up to him.
The end result was a big win for Alaphilippe, Martin and Henao in the GC, they have a lead of around a minute now on the other GC favourites, a minute should be far more than they might lose in the TT, so it could be advantage Martin and Henao now. Porte, Contador, Zakarin and the rest have it all to do now, which means we should see some full-on racing later in the week.
This stage looked like one for the sprinters, but after today, who knows. The winds are going to whip up again tomorrow and I wouldn't be suprised to see echelons and splits again. There will be cross-winds coming at them all day and we might see BMC and Trek look to try to exact some revenge and cause some splits of their own again. They set out from Rochefort en Yvelines and head south-east more or less all day across the flat plains of central France. The route is pretty featureless all day and with 55kms to go they head on to a circuit around Amilly.
After 164kms they cross through the finish line for the first time and set out on a 31km final circuit. It's a dead flat circuit more or less and the final 500m are dead straight and ever-so-slightly downhill. If the race has not been blown apart, it's as straight-forward a sprint finish as they are likely to face, if it does end in a mass sprint finish we could see 10-15 sprinters fighting it out.
Let's start by saying that tomorrow could be another crazy day and we could see anything tomorrow. We will either see another day of echelons and madness in the wind as some teams look to try to get time back or shake off some sprint rivals, or we will see the calm after the storm and a peloton of tired and battered riders call a truce and they roll to the last 20kms and then fight out a sprint.
There is an incredible line-up of sprinters here, most of the best in the world are lining up. Marcel Kittel is probably the best sprinter in the world when everything falls in to place for him, but that's the problem with Kittel, if everything doesn't fall in to place he tends to let you down at ridiculously low odds. He may not have been ridiculously low odds today, but he was the favourite even though I didn't think he had a chance of getting over the final hill, and that was the case, he went even before the final hill even though he had half his team with him.
But he will do well to screw this one up, with it's flat, straight run-in to the line on a dead-flat day. The only thing that could derail him is the weather again. If things get a bit messy Kittel has a knack of finding trouble.
Three stage wins in Dubai, one superb come-from-the-clouds win in Abu Dhabi to deny a foolish Ewan, he's in great form and looking super strong. He dosen't have the greatest leadout here though as the team is built around Martin and Alaphilippe's chances. He does have Bauer, Sabatini and Lampaert though and it might just be enough to get him in to position in the last 300m and he'll do the rest. BUT - he had a really hard day today and he was dead at the finish.. will he have recovered in time for tomorrow? I'm put off him at those odds of 11/8 based on his performance today.
Arnaud Démare was superb today, the way he chased down Alaphilippe was brilliant, the contest was over as soon as he came up to Alaphilippe's wheel. He looked really strong and his confidence, as well as the team's will be sky high after that great start. He may well be right there at the forefront tomorrow, he showed super strength at the end of a hard day today so he must be in great shape. The team had a hard day though to get him to the finish in the right place, they all looked shattered at the end of the day. He'll be close, but I'm not sure he'll be winning.
André Greipel faded out of it on the final hill too today, but he too has a big chance today, he'd be the second best sprinter here on paper and looks to have a better leadout than Kittel with Van der Sande, Bak, Hansen, Hofland and Wallays to take him to the last 500m.. but how can he beat Kittel? Does he go early and try to hold him off? That won't work, Kittel will come past him like he did to Ewan in Abu Dhabi. His best chance is for Lotto to try to force him to go early, maybe by making someone like TVDS jump off the front with 7-800m to go, then maybe if Kittel goes too early then Greipel might have a chance of coming around him at the death.
Nacer Bouhanni has a big chance too, especially with this team behind him and the fact he would not have expended the same sort of energy as the other sprinters today. Bouhanni didn't get in the front group today, nor was he working hard in the second group, so he basically had a day off today while the others were exhausting themselves. He's practically got his Grade A leadout team here with Simon, Soupe, Laporte and Lemoine so it's likely we are going to see the red jersey's massing at the front in the last 5kms. I wasn't sure I wanted to back Bouhanni yesterday when thinking about this stage, but I've changed my mind and he's the only bet I am thinking of having tomorrow.
Bryan Coquard has come close to beating Kittel a few times recently, but the only time he has ever beaten him was in the Tour of Picardie in 2013 when they finished 1-2 in favour of Coquard. He just seems to lack that little extra something to take the big wins, he's still a small-league player when it comes to sprint wins. I think he'd have the weakest of the leadouts of the guys I've named so far though and he really went pop today, long before the others faded.
Alexander Kristoff surely has a big chance as well of being involved, but he too struggled when it looked like the stage was at his mercy.. He got found out on that final hill whereas Démare rode away from him. Katusha has a tough day in the saddle too and Zakarin has it all to do now to get back in to the race so Katusha may be a bit more conservative tomorrow. He only just beat Gilbert in the sprint too which isn't a great sign, he may find a few too fast for him tomorrow too.
Dylan Groenewegen has a chance of getting involved too now we're back on a flat finish, he finished in the same group as Bouhanni today so had an 'easy' day too compared to those up front. Lotto don't have a great leadout here for him though, so he might be fighting for the minor placings. John Degenkolb had a tough day too in the chase group, he too could be like Groenewegen and be fighting for 5th to 10th place.
And you have a whole host of other sprinters just behind them like Sam Bennett, Niccola Bonifazio, Dan McLay, Magnus Cort Neilsen, Andrea Guardini, Michael Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli - it really is a feast of sprinters, and you'd think that it would be more likely to end in a bunch sprint than not.
I may be over-estimating how hard today was on these guys, they are pros after all who race day after day in stage races and are superb at recovering. But I'm almost leaning towards a no-bet day - I have doubts about Kittel and most of the other sprinters who had a hard day today, but I'm going to have a small bet on Bouhanni, he may just be the freshest of these guys.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 11/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Bouhanni to beat Groenewegen - 2pts at 8/11
Bennett to beat Guardini, Bonifazio to beat Sbaragli, McLay to beat Minali - 2pts at 2.4/1 all with 365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Chablis to Chalon sur Saone
Tuesday March 7th, 190kms
If you had tuned in today to Eurosport around 2.30pm you'd have assumed it was just a boring sprinters stage as there was a break with a lead of a minute with 42kms to go.. nothing unusual there right? Well if you had been able to follow what was going on since the flag drop you would have actually seen a stage of chaos, carnage and confusion as the winds battered the peloton all day. Almost straight away we were hearing that the peloton was split in to 6 different groups on the road, with a number of the sprinters like Kittel, Démare, Kristoff, Degenkolb, Greipel and Bennett in the first group and carnage behind..
Richie Porte was sliding through the groups and was 2'40" down at one point, Dan Martin and Henao were in the front group but got dropped from it and Zakarin bridged up with Henao and Rowe again. The first group had over a minute, but there were still over 100kms to go! Then all of a sudden the break up front broke apart and Gilbert and five others went ahead and the rest of the break were swallowed up by a now-reforming peloton.. So after all that madness, when the TV cameras came on, it was just a small break with a charging peloton behind!
And what a crazy finish to the stage - after all that, Philippe Gilbert looked like the winner as he took off from the remains of the break and held a 47" lead with 10kms to go.. Prompting Bet365 to momentarily make him 6/4 favourite.. but then he died a death out in the wind on his own and the peloton got set for a sprint finish, so Kittel was restored as the 7/4 favourite.. But it ended up being a bookies bonanza yet again today as 150/1 shot Sonny Colbrelli beat ALL the sprinters to the win. Degenkolb got up for 2nd with Démare continuing to show how strong he is right now by extending his lead in the yellow jersey by taking 3rd place.
No sign of Kittel, he blew up long before the finish, Kristoff was only 9th. Groenewegen couldn't take advantage of the fact he had 5 team-mates in the leading group, but he managed to snag 4th, Christophe Laporte got up for 5th for Cofidis, as Nacer Bouhanni had abandoned already. As had Niccolo Bonifazio, and Dan McLay finished dead last to complete a miserable day.
They continue to head south-east, leaving Chablis, one of my favourite white wines, on another relatively long day at 190kms, but another relatively flat day too. It is punctuated by two climbs along the way though, the Cote de Grandmont after 128kms, a Cat 3 climb of 2.4kms at 4.9% and the Cote de Charrecey with 25.5kms to go, a Cat 2 climb for 2.1kms at 6.7%.
The second climb will be the most important of the two, coming as it does with just 25kms to go, but it is relatively short at 2.1kms, so those that are dropped are likely to get back on again in the run-in, as there is plenty of time to get a chase sorted.
The finish is flat but has a number of complications as they enter Chalon sur Saone, with a large roundabout with just over 4kms to go, a sharp right with 3.5kms to go, another roundabout with 3.2kms to go. With just over 2kms to go they hit a roundabout and it is almost a hairpin bend as they double back on themselves almost, but from there, the last 2kms are straight-forward with the road arcing around to their right along the banks of the Saone. The last kilometre is almost dead straight and flat, it should be a fast and furious sprint.
Can the hill with 25kms to go have an impact on the outcome of the stage? It's only 2kms, but you'd think no.. but it does average nearly 7% so it's far from easy. As we saw with the hill on stage 1, sprinters like Kittel, Greipel and Kristoff can struggle on hills like this if the pace is really being ripped up at the front. I think Katusha (for Kristoff), Orica (for Matthews) and FDJ (for Démare) will look to blow the race apart here. If you can blow it up in the first kilometre riders will go out the back door and you can really cause a split in the second kilometre. If they have 20-30" over a group of stragglers going over the top and they work together, they may not be caught.
Where do you even start with tomorrow's stage? It is becoming a real lottery now these stages, tomorrow's stage looks like it should be another sprint stage, but who knows what will happen. There are a lot of very tired bodies out there and a lot of guys who are 15, 30 minutes and more down on GC who will be dying to get in a break to make amends and to try to rescue something from the race.
Can you trust Marcel Kittel tomorrow at 7/4? No, you'd be mad to back him given what has happened so far this week.. Same for the likes of Degenkolb, Kristoff, Bennett and Greipel who have had two very tough days in the saddle and may struggle on that hill. It's unlikely we will see Colbrelli pull off something like that two days in a row, but he did look super strong in the sprint, to go for that far out and hold off the likes of Degenkolb, Démare and Greipel. Groenewegen didn't have the legs, nor did Bennett or Matthews, so you really can't trust any of them.
The only one I would be remotely interested in having a bet on based on the first two days is Arnaud Démare - he has been super strong and is full of the confidence of the yellow jersey. But 6/1? It's very tight..
There is also the possibility of course that there is a late break goes on that final climb - it may be short at only 2kms, but as there are so many tired bodies already in the race, it could really blow up again. If we get a strong attack of five or six riders go they might stay away.
Guys like Oliver Naesen who has been active this week but hasn't had much joy, but he did sprint to 7th today, he clearly has good legs. Or Alexy Lutsenko, he tried today near the finish but didn't get very far, he clearly has some energy in his legs to try that, he might try again. Or Luke Rowe at 200/1 or Edward Theuns at 100/1.. the worry with them though is that they will be asked to do a team job for Henao and Contador, who are still, just about, in this race. I'd have said Philippe Gilbert too but he had a tough day out front today, he might try to rest and recover for the stages to come. Or what about Cofidis, now Bouhanni has gone home, the other guys will be able to ride their own race - Geoffrey Soupe could try getting away at 200/1, or Dimitri Claeys at 200/1, he was 19th in Le Samyn so has a little bit of form.
This is not a day for big stakes again, I'm having a small e/w on Démare as I think he'll be close to the first three again if it's a sprint finish, but just picking some longshots for breaks, whether early or late for an interest..
By the way, I'm going to be really busy possibly for the rest of this week and travelling a bit so I won't be doing a Tirreno preview - I'll try to add my thoughts here if I get a chance, but there is a low chance of a preview for P-N tomorrow, sorry folks.. but the way it's been going lately maybe it's good to take a break anyway, it's been a bit mad out there..
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Arnaud Démare at 7/1 with Bet365
0.2pt win on Oliver Naesen at 66/1 with Paddy Power (125/1 went pretty quick)
0.2pts win on Alexy Lutsenko at 80/1 with Paddy Power
0.2pts win on Dimitri Claeys at 200/1 with Bet365
0.2pts win on Luke Rowe at 200/1 with PP
Route Map
Profile
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Beaujeu to Mont Brouilly
Wednesday March 8th, 14.5kms ITT
So a 'boring' old flat stage then finally in Paris-Nice, so boring in fact that they didn't even try to string it out and attack on that climb before the finish, and Dylan Groenewegen fell asleep and crashed.. But boy, what a finish to the stage - a proper sprint.. a full on charge, with most of the best sprinters in the world.. and Sammy Bennett well and truly planted himself firmly in the bracket of 'the best sprinters in the world' with a stunning win to beat Kristoff, Degenkolb, Kittel, Greipel, Matthews and Démare.
The other sprinters must have been feeling the effects of two very hard days as I suspected, whereas hard man Sammy B was loving it in conditions more akin to a typical Irish winter's day and came out strongest of the lot of them. I'm delighted for him, but very annoyed I hadn't backed him at such a big price (I saw 33/1, he could have been bigger) as I had actually written two days ago for Stage 3's preview (as I was trying to get ahead of things) that I had been very impressed with him in KBK and in the first two stages and he could be worth a bet.. but when he didn't really challenge in the sprint yesterday I changed my mind and changed the copy.. We won't get 33/1 on him for a sprint for the rest of his career I'd say...
No change in the GC, but it was annoying to hear today that Bouhanni had been ill for the two days before he finally abandoned with a cold, that 'he could barely leave the bus' on Sunday.. These kinds of things really bloody annoy me, that this information isn't made more public, same with Roelandts in Strade Bianche, he started despite having sinus problems and abandoned not long in to it.
Finally a stage that might shake up the GC.. a 14.5km TT that takes them up Mont Brouilly, a climb that was also on the route of last year's race. I say it was on the route, but the stage was abandoned just 93kms in, before they even got to Mont Brouilly due to heavy snow making the roads too dangerous
The profile itself below looks pretty flat, but you can see in the profile on the right that Mont Brouilly is a tricky little hill to finish the TT with.
The first 11kms are more or less dead flat as they head south-east from Beaujeu towards Saint-Lager, and from there they take a right turn and start heading south-west.
The climb starts with 3kms to go and averages 7.7% for the 3kms of the climb to the line. The first kilometre is 6.1%, the second is a bit steeper at 7.9% and the final kilometre is steeper again at 9.3%, making it a nasty finish to the day.
The other thing to consider for this stage is that the weather forecast isn't great at the moment with a chance of rain and a bit of a head-wind on parts of the course, including on the climb up to the finish. It's not the longest of TTs at 14.5kms, but it will be all about keeping a very high pace on the flat and then going hell for leather up the last 3kms.
This stage takes on an entirely new complexion now with that has happened in the preceeding stages. Richie Porte is no longer going to be trying to pull on the yellow jersey after this stage, his chances of winning the GC are long gone now. So how's he going to race it? Devoid of all interest and motivation now his chance has gone of winning the GC? Or ride like a man posessed to try to make up for two days of amateur ineptitude in the wind. Who knows, you can't trust him either way - he is either not as strong as people were saying and he was dropped because of that, or he is going ok but just pootles around the course in a huff.
But the noises coming out of Porte and the team was that he just had a really bad 'jour sans' on Monday and he can't explain it. He's very disappointed with the situation, but says that he wants to repay the team for their efforts later in the race, starting with the TT, where he feels he has a good chance. He's 5/2 with Paddy Power, and if what happened in the last few days hadn't happened, I'd be all over that, it would be my bet of the year, but I just can't trust him now.
Alberto Contador is still just about in this race, but he has his work cut out for him. 19th place, 1'18" behind Démare, he could take that back in two, maybe even one of the mountain top finishes. But it's not Démare he needs to worry about, he's not going to be hanging in there over the mountains. His biggest rivals are going to come from the likes of Henao and Martin, who sit 55" in front of him, or Alaphilippe who is 1'12" ahead of him; Zakarin who is 17" ahead of him or Ion Izagirre who is on the same time as him.
Can Contador kick start his charge with a big ride in this TT? Maybe.. but at 7/2 I can't be backing him either. In fact there is so little value in the betting it's hardly worth backing any of them. Julian Alaphilippe - 4/1? No thanks - he's never won a TT in his life. Jon Izagirre - 9/2 - can he stay on his bike this time? He's about the only one that offers a bit of interest to me as he's still in with a shout in this race and has some making up to do. He lost time because of an unfortunate touch of wheels that put him in the ditch, not that he wasn't strong enough, he had made that first group on Sunday's stage. He also has amends to make after his crash in his last TT, I think his motivation is super strong and he could blitz it around this course.. so he could steal a top 3 at worst and is worth a small bet.
Tony Martin will go well on the flat, but not on the climb, Sergio Henao vice-versa, but not as well on the climb as others. Ilnur Zakarin could be another danger though as he has had good results in TTs like his 3rd in a hilly TT in Romandie over 17kms, behind Martin and Spilak. But he could be anything tomorrow and he hasn't looked in the best of form so far. Simon Yates at 66/1 can go well maybe too, but there is nothing else really appeals to me, maybe Roger Latour at 300/1 as he looked strong today, but he did put in a big shift today..
Richie may well win it, but I'm not risking it, a small 1pt bet e/w on Izagirre will do it for me, will try to look at matchbets later if I can.
Meanwhile, over in Tirreno, BMC will win, but Movistar at 6/1 and LottoNL Jumbo at 9/1 look interesting, they have two very strong squads here too.
Recommendations:
1pt e/w on Ion Izagirre at 9/2 with PP (you may get better later on elsewhere)
2pts win on BMC in Tirreno at 5/4 with PP
0.5pts e/w on a double - Ion Izagirre to win in PN at 9/2 and Movistar to win in TA at 13/2 with PP - 0.5pts e/w pays 22.4/1 if they both win..
Matchbets
Zakarin to beat Gorka Izagirre, Porte to beat T Martin, Henao to beat D Martin - 3pts on the treble at 0.96/1 with 365
Warren Barguil to beat Davide Formolo - 2pts at 8/11 with 365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 5
Stage 5 - Quincié-en-Beaujolais to Bourg-de-Péage
Thursday March 9th, 199.5kms
Further south we go, getting ever closer to Nice on a long, rolling stage of almost 200kms. They leave the Beaujolais area behind, skip past Lyon and head towards Bourg de Péage. After 98kms they hit a Cat 3 climb, the Cote de Givors (4.3kms at 4.2%) but they actually climb for closer to 10kms but as there are still 100kms to go it probably won't make any difference.
With 47kms to go they hit the second climb of the day, the Cote de Saint Uze, a Cat 2 climb of 2.7kms at 6.5%, but again, as it's short at just 2.7kms, there is a fair chance that anyone dropped on the climb will get back in, with over 45kms still to go to the finish. The run-in to Bourg de Péage is pretty straight-forward, they turn back north with 7kms to go from Alixan and the run in to the town takes them through a number of roundabouts on their way up to the finish near the banks of the Isere river.
This looks to have all the hallmarks of a repeat of the stage on Tuesday when the peloton calmed down after two days of madness. Nico Roche said that as soon as the first three guys attacked the Italians started shouting "Basta, basta, basta" ("Enough, Enough, Enough") and everyone was happy to just roll along for the next four hours.. It could be the same here.
Paddy Power came out with their prices for this on Tuesday night, two days ahead of the stage, which is good, and I don't understand why the other bookies don't do the same, it's not like anything is going to change during the TT.. Most of these guys will just have pootled around the course, except for Démare maybe who will be doing his best to stay in yellow.
So who wins this time then? Last time out Sam Bennnett pulled off a stunning 33/1 victory, but behind him you could have thrown a blanket over 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th as Kristoff, Degenkolb, Kittel and Matthews all finished millimetres apart. Arnaud Démare and André Greipel were right behind them.. So there really is nothing in it between these guys and you could almost draw straws as to who comes out on top this time.
Having said that though, do we give Marcel Kittel a chance again tomorrow now he's had an easier day on stage 3 and a 'rest day' more or less in stage 4? He was tired obviously after the first two stages, but he may well have recovered enough by tomorrow to take this sprint. And that goes for his team-mates too, they had a very rough first couple of stages, they too have had a chance to rest and recuperate. I think Kittel will time it better next time and has to go close, and at almost 2/1 he's worth a shot I think. Since I wrote this on Tuesday, Bet365 have come out with 9/4 on Kittel and that is definitely worth a go.
Sam Bennett is now only 8/1, as I said yesterday, we won't see 33/1 or 50/1 on him in a sprint again ever I'd say. He was delivered brilliantly to the front by Michael Kolar with about 400m to go, just as he was looking like he might struggle to get to the front places.. Kolar came up outside him on the left, must have given him a shout and Bennett was immediately on his wheel.. Kolar powered up the left side and dropped him expertly on Kristoff's wheel, and as it turned out it was the best wheel to be on as Kristoff went left and created a load of space for Bennett to come through, whereas it was quite cluttered on the right where Kittel, Degenkolb and co. were fighting it out.
If he can get a clear run again and is pulled to the front so expertly by Kolar, then he has a chance for sure - his burst of speed was super-impressive to come from behind Kristoff and to win by a bike-length by the finish. I'd have him ahead of Démare, Matthews and Greipel in terms of speed at the moment, he needs to beat one of Degenkolb or Kristoff I think to get something back on an e/w bet at 8/1.
John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff came closest to him in the last sprint, but in two totally different situations. Degenkolb 'won' his race on the right side of the road beating Kittel, but Kristoff on the left side was just ahead of him, but well behind Bennett. On what we've seen on stage 1 and 3 you'd have to say Kristoff was the stronger of the two, but then Degenkolb has come 2nd on stage 2 and 3rd on stage 3 so he clearly has very good legs too. It's really hard to call it between those two, but if I had to lean one way I'd go with Kristoff to just pip him again.
Arnaud Démare has been going backwards since his great win on stage 1, finishing 3rd on stage 2 and 6th on stage 3. He has a good team with him here for out on the road but they weren't great in the closing stages on stage 3, if they can do a better job tomorrow he might just go closer than 6th again. But I think he will be in a similar position in this sprint.
André Greipel made the front group that fought out the finish on stage 1 but when they hit that little hill before the finish he went pop, after working for Gallopin's chances. He hasn't really challenged in the two sprints so far either, finishing 8th and 7th, He doesn't look like he has hit his stride yet in this race and he is another 5th to 10th candidate I think.
Michael Matthews is starting to get closer - he was disappointing on stage 1 when it looked like a stage that might suit him (but that was a freak stage in the end to be fair) and then he finished 12th in stage 2 and 5th in stage 3.. Curvers, Arndt and Stamsnijder will get it right one of these days too, but I think Matthews needs another tough day in the saddle, a tougher finish than this too to really get the best out of him, a flat-out sprint and he'll be watching from behind the first 3 again I think.
And then you have the others like Colbrelli, Laporte, Sbaragli, Cort Neilsen and so on, unless something happens at the front like a crash that takes down several of the favourites I don't think they'll be breaking on to the podium,
So - it's a bit of a gamble with the way it has been going .. but I think Marcel Kittel will take advantage of his mini rest day and come out all guns blazing here tomorrow and finally get his nose in front. Sam Bennett is still worth a shot e/w even if his price is a quarter of what it was two days ago, and Kristoff should be battling Dege for the other podium spot.
Over in Tirreno-Adriatico it looks like it will be a good finish to that stage, a lot more interesting looking than this one in Paris-Nice. A lumpy day with four climbs to get over in the last 100kms, with an uphill finish to Pomerance. The last 8kms are all uphill with parts hitting 16%, but generally averaging around 4.6%. The last 2kms average 4.6%, with the last 400m or so around 6%. It will suit puncheurs and it's no wonder to see GVA and Sagan at the top of the betting. Fabio Felline could have a big chance here at a tasty 8/1, he's in great form but was denied a good result in Strade when he crashed and had to make a bike change.
Michal Kwiatkowski could go well if he shows the power he did in Strade, and Stybar might go well on this finish too at 20/1. Can Gaviria hang in there and sprint to victory? I think it might be just too hard for him, the others will not want to bring him to the line.. For a big priced outsider, Enrico Battaglin at 66/1 with Bet365 might go ok if it's a small group charge to the line, Giovanni Visconti can maybe attack late at 50/1. It's probably going to be a duel between GVA and Sagan though, and based on their records in uphill sprint finishes, your money has to be on GVA.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Marcel Kittel at 9/4 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 8/1 with Bet365
Tirreno-Adriatico
0.5pts each-way on Fabio Felline at 8/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way on Enrico Battaglin at 66/1 with Bet365
1pt win double on Kittel and GVA at 13.4/1 with PP
Matchbets
Laporte to beat Sbaragli, Kittel to beat Greipel and Matthews to beat Colbrelli - 2pts at 3.1/1 with Bet365
Felline to beat Benoot, GVA to beat Kwiatkowski, Gesink to beat Spilak in Tirreno - 2pts at 1.83/1 with Bet365
Uran to beat Mollema - 3pts at 5/6
Route Map
Profile
Stage 6-8
Overall Contenders and Favourites
This is an interesting course, backloaded with mountains in the latter part of the race, but with a TT thrown in to the middle of it that *could* set the GC for the rest of the race. I say *could* because it could be that someone like Richie Porte takes a 10-15" lead after the TT and then defends it for the rest of the mountain stages.
Let's start with Richie Porte then, Bet365 have opened with him as their 2/1 favourite and I can't argue with the fact they've made him favourite, I think he has a superb chance of being a key player in this race, the TT will suit him perfectly and the climbs aren't too hard, he should be able to mark and cover most attacks, possibly even attack and win on some.
Winner of the TDU with a dominant display on the two hills of Paracombe and Willunga, no one could live with him when he took off. I said back then that he looked lean and mean and if he has maintained that condition then he will be a real challenger. He has had six weeks more or less to taper down a little, then build himself up to this again. They have made no secret of the fact that this was his first big target on his return to racing in Europe, Sports Director Yvon Ledanois had this to say yesterday:
“Paris-Nice is the first big goal for Richie since he returned to Europe this season. Richie had a great start to the year at the Santos Tour Down Under and we want to continue this success as we look towards July. As we have already seen, Richie is in a great shape and is really motivated to do well at Paris-Nice, particularly as he has won on two previous occasions,”
They are taking a very strong team, with riders like Amaël Moinard, Nicolas Roche and Alessandro De Marchi who will play an important role in the mountain stages. Michael Schär, Danilo Wyss and Francisco Ventoso bring a wealth of road experience, and Dylan Teuns brings additional support on both the flat and the climbs. Porte will not be left wanting in the mountains I think with those guys and he sounds pretty confident too:
“I’m really motivated to do well at Paris-Nice. It’s my home race in Europe and I’ve won twice before, so a third win would give me a lot of confidence for the next part of the season. I haven’t raced since Australia in January but I’ve had a solid block of training in Tasmania and Monaco, so I’m looking forward to racing again."
He's not a lot of value at 2/1 but he didn't look like value in the TDU either to some, but when you have the best chance in the race, you're not going to be 10/1 now are you. His biggest obstacle will probably be his uncanny ability to fuck things up with a puncture, a mechanical or a crash.. If he does stay out of trouble, he should come close to winning the TT and will take a small lead ranging from 10-60" over some of his GC rivals in to the mountains. He shouldn't really have any problems with the mountains out on the course on stage 6, and actaully the finish up to Faence with the climb for 1.2kms at 9.8% is almost exactly the same as the climb to Torrens Hill in Paracombe in the TDU where he killed everyone, he may take some more time here.
Stage 7 with the summit finish on the Col de la Couillole could well be won by the break of the day, so bonus seconds might be taken (they may even try to get a man like Teuns or Wyss in the break), and with such a steady gradient all the way to the line, BMC should be able to control it for most of it and I don't think Richie will be under too much pressure. The final stage to Nice shouldn't pose him any problems either, he lives in Nice and knows these roads like the back of his hand and the Col d'Eze is a favourite of his. The only danger to him possibly on the final day is if a rival attacks early on the Col d'Eze, bridges to a team-mate from the break and they tear down to the finish stretching a gap.. But I can't see Porte being isolated on the Col and he should be ok. So he ticks all the boxes for me.
Second favourite is Alberto Contador, but I can't bring myself to back him at just 3/1. Not good enough in Abu Dhabi, was just content to mark Quintana and watch the race disappear up the road in front of him. He was better in Andalucia though, almost winning on the climb on stage 2 but was passed at the death by a charging Thibaut Pinot. He went ok in the TT too, but was beaten by Valverde (no the greatest TT'er in the world) by 6", and it was enough to see him lose the GC by one solitary second. He did have to ease back a touch at one point when a dog ran in front of him, it could well have cost him the race.
Contador should go well in the TT too though, he has gone well in hilly TTs in the past. He won the 16.5kms TT in Pais Vasco last year, beating Quintana by 5". I think he will be top 5 in the TT, possibly even top 3, but I think Porte will have the measure of him, possibly by 5-15". It will mean though that we will be treated to the spectacle of Contador attacking relentlessly for the rest of the race! Contador's attack in Andalucia was good, he just couldn't sustain it all the way to the line and they came back at him. That could be his achilles heel again though as he is another year older, he may attack, but may not be able to sustain it and BMC will be able to grind it and pull him back should Porte have not been able to hold his wheel.
He has a decent enough team with him here though that will pile on the pressure in an effort to wear out BMC ahead of an attack. Jesus Hernandez, Haimar Zubeldia, Edward Thuens, Jarlinson Pantano and Michael Gogl will be useful in the hills and they will also be going stage hunting with John Degenkolb. He should be good enough for a podium, but too short to back him each-way.
Alejandro Valverde would have been a big danger here too as he could have been a bonus second poacher - the finish to Fayence and the final stages looked like stages he could have won.. but around mid-day on Friday the new broke that he was not starting PN. But without him, Movistar do not look like they have anyone here who can compete in the GC, he is being replaced by Victor De La Part, the rest of the team were workhorses for AV, but maybe now they will have the freedom to attack, Winner Anacona and Gorka Izagirre might be getting involved in breaks now.
As a result of AV's absence it makes it easier for some of the others to maybe take a podium spot, as I thought Valverde would possibly take the stage to Fayence and Nice, and the bonus seconds with them. High on my list of other candidates is Ion Izagirre - if you read my Andalucia preview you know I was sweet on him there, as he could have taken the lead with the TT, but unfortunately a freak accident took him out of the race. He immediately said that his focus was recovering in time for Paris Nice and it was just scrapes and bruises thankfully, nothing broken. 6th in Murcia, 5th and 4th in the first two stages of Andalucia, he can do well in the TT, he will hang in there on the climbs, he should be there or thereabouts in the top 3 I think. Not a great deal of value in him at 7/1, but with Valverde out it's not too bad.
Ilnur Zakarin continues to be an enigma in pro cycling, liked and disliked in equal measure it seems. The skinny Russian has burst on to the scene in the last few years, taking some fine results, including stages in the TDF, Giro and Paris Nice. His win in PN was on the Madone d'Utell last year, beating Geraint Thomas in a sprint for the line, with Contador, Porte and Henao not far behind. He lost 7" sloppily in a split on stage 2 and another 5" to Porte and Contador on the final stage when he couldn't go with them, he missed out on a podium by 8" only, finishing 4th.
Not really at the races in Valenciana, he finished 1'25" behind Quintana on the Queen Stage, he stepped it up in Abu Dhabi though, attacking with Rui Costa on the Queen Stage climb to Jebel Hafeet. He can time trial, he can climb, he's going to be there or thereabouts on the climbs, there's not going to be much between several of these guys at the top of the betting.
He is supported by Tony Martin, Robert Kiserlovski, Michael Morkov, Marco Haller and Alberto Losada, not on the same level as the BMC team when it comes to late on on a hard climb I would think. So Zakarin may well be on his own towards the end of stages, but I think he should be able to hang on to coat-tails and possibly even take a stage from a reduced sprint.
Team Sky have a live one too in Sergio Henao - the newly crowned Colombian champion managed to win solo in Colombia, despite crashing in the race. He came 6th here last year, despite working his ass off for Thomas, he lost a handful of seconds here and there after working for him. He did ok in the TDU earlier this year, but was no match for Porte. Generally a workhorse for Sky, he rarely gets a chance to lead the team, but when chances come his way he does ok, even when he's not the designated leader of the team like in Pais Vasco last year where he finished 2nd, with Landa, the team leader, back in 11th.
That came about because of his brilliant ride on the hilly TT to Eibar where he finishing 3rd, just 18" behind Contador (Landa was 2'11" down). If he can pull off a TT like that and ride as well as he is capable of on the climbs, then he has to be considered a serious contender too. They also have Philip Deignan, Christian Knees, Luke Rowe, Sebastian Henao, Mikel Nieve and David Lopez here to look after him in the mountains, Nieve and Lopez towards the end after Knees, Rowe and Deignan do a job earlier on the climb. I
It goes to show what a poor time triallist Romain Bardet is that Julian Alaphilippe is shorter in the betting than Bardet for a stage race, with JA at 16/1 and RB at 20/1. To be fair, Romain Bardet was very disappointing in Oman, failing to make any impression on Green Mountain, and it was similar in Abu Dhabi where he came in 12th on Jebel Hafeet with Quintana, but 12" behind the likes of Alaphilippe, Majka, Pozzovivo and Aru, a disappointing result. I think he'll really struggle in the TT compared to the guys mentioned above, and unless he can attack away on say the final climb to the Col de la Couillole I think he's going to struggle to get in to the top 3.
Julian Alaphilippe has a chance of a good result based on his strong showing on Jabel Hafeet, where he finished an impressive 5th place, leading home the group with Aru and Majka 46" behind Costa. He had some superb results last year too, such as winning the Tour of Califormia and 6th in the Dauphiné. He can TT pretty good, an uphill TT will probably suit him a lot better than a long, flat one and his climbing has come on a long way. The punchy finish to Fayence is one he will have his eye on too I think, he has finished 2nd in Fleche-Wallone after all. If he can hang in there on the tough finish to Couillole he could be a dangerous outsider here. I think he might struggle a little bit on the climb to the Col d'Eze though, he could be left behind by the furious attacks that are bound to come, a little like Thomas was last year.
Dan Martin, his team-mate could have been a contender here were it not for the Time Trial, he will struggle to stay within 30-40" of the likes of Richie, Bertie and Ion. He should go well on some of the mountain stages, he might like the finish to Fayence too, as he's another who has gone very well on the Mur du Huy in the past. He has been in good form though, winning a superb stage in a battle with Roglic in the Algarve. If he has a really good day on stage 7 he could possibly attack away and take 20-30", plus the bonus seconds. He should also do well on the final stage to Nice, if it comes to a select sprint he might have a chance.. So it's imperative he loses as little time as possible in the TT, the fact it's uphill for the last 3kms will help a little, but I think he might leave himself with just a little too much to do.
There are lots of other decent climbers here, such as Michael Woods, Simon Yates, Steven Kruijswijk, Eduardo Sepulveda, Sam Oomen, Davide Formolo, Mathias Frank and so on, but they will be well out of it because of the TT. And there are TT'ers likeTony Martin, but he won't stay with the climbers. One outsider who might go well at a big price is David De La Cruz at 300/1, he can climb very well, is quite punchy for a finish like stage 6 and isn't the worst TT'er in the race. He may have some freedom as they watch Martin and Alaphilippe and might get himself in a break some day (possibly stage 7) that could make it.
So it looks to me like this is a race perfectly suited to Nice resident Richie Porte. I thought he was the bet for this even before Valverde pulled out and backed him at 2/1, I think he's a far better bet now that Valverde is out as he could have been a danger with his ability to win stages and bonus seconds. He's 6/4 now and I think that's still just about a bet. Behind him is a real battle and there could only be seconds separating 5 or 6 guys at the end of the week. Contador is a good podium shout, but so too is Ion Izagirre and Ilnur Zakarin and Sergio Henao! I'm going to plump for Izagirre again though as my e/w bet, with a tiny interest on De La Cruz for fun.
Recommendations:
4pts win on Richie Porte at 6/4 with Bet365
1pt each-way on Ion Izagirre at 7/1 with William Hill
0.1pts each-way on David De La Cruz at 300/1 with PP
Overall Matchbets
David De La Cruz to beat Mikel Nieve - 2pts at evens
Matthias Frank to beat Patrick Konrad - 3pts at 4/6
Henao to beat Bardet, Porte to beat Contador and Alaphilippe to beat Gallopin - 2pts on the treble at 2.9/1 - all with 365
This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. Fantasy games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.
Here's my ten to watch for Paris Nice
1 Richie Porte
2 Alberto Contador
3 Sergio Henao
4 Ion Izagirre
5 Julian Alaphilippe
6 Dan Martin
7 Sam Oomen
8 Romain Bardet
9 Davide Formolo
10 Jacob Fuglsang
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