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Published on Tuesday, 30 June 2015 07:13

Tour de France Favourites

A Look at the main contenders for TDF 2015

The 2015 Tour de France looks like it could be the most competitive and exciting in many a year. Last year's race was billed as being a battle between Contador and Froome, with Nibali a lively outsider, Nairo Quintana had skipped it after winning the Giro d'Italia. As it turned out, Chris Froome lasted less than a week and Contador not much longer, as bad crashes denied us the opportunity of seeing them battle it out with eventual winner Vincenzo Nibali. 

It's the first time that all four will meet in a Grand Tour and it has all the makings of an absolute classic. There isn't much to separate all four of them in terms of ability on a route like this and there isn't much separating them in the betting either. Converting their odds to probabilities see Froome having a 33.3% chance of winning, Quintana with a 27% chance, Contador with an 18.2% chance and Nibali with a 16.7% chance. That basically means, if you ignored over-rounds, that there's a 95.2% chance that one of the four will win the race.

But there's also a queue of guys lining up behind them that are looking to try to emulate Jean-Christophe Peraud and Thibaut Pinot of last year when they finished 2nd and 3rd on the podium. Pinot is back to try to repeat that feat and is looking in good shape in the Tour de Suisse. There’s no 200/1 on him this year though, which I had backed him at last year, he's just 28/1.

Tejay Van Garderen looked the winner of the Critérium du Dauphiné right up until the last 10 minutes of the race and rode well all week, despite not being at 100% fitness yet. Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez have podiumed before in the Tour and will be ready to take advantage of any accidents or splits that could cause the favourites some issues.

It's going to be a fascinating battle for sure, one that will kick off with the prologue in Utrecht, where Chris Froome will be looking to strike an early psychological blow to his rivals by putting time in to them right from the very first day.  

The first week will see some fascinating, Classics-like racing where they finish on two Murs (the Huy and Bretagne) where we should see some early posturing but probably not very big time gaps. They also cross 13kms of cobbles on stage 4, a similar stage to stage 5 won by Lars Boom last year in foul conditions. That of course was the stage that saw Chris Froome's demise and Vincezo Nibali start to lay the foundations for his win with a brilliant ride, aided by Lieuwe Westra and Jacob Fuglsang.

The first real battles will start either side of the rest day though with, with first the crucial Team Time Trial over 28kms to Plumelec and then the day after the rest day the first summit finish of the race on stage 10 on La PIerre St Martin. But it's the final week's mountain stages that should finally separate what could be a very closely fought battle. But who's going to come out on top? Let's take a look at the main contenders, sorted in terms of their current odds, and let’s hope they all get to the final week in good health to give us a 'battle royale' on the road to Paris..
   

Chris Froome - Team Sky

2/1 Best Price (Various Incl Stan James and Betfred)

Froome has been hit and miss this year, but when he has hit, he has hit hard.. His most recent success in the Dauphiné was just further proof that he is one of the best climbers in the world when on a good day. He didn't start great in the race and was playing catch-up to Van Garderen who was solid and steady.

It looked like Van Garderen may have done enough with an 18" lead going in to the final day, but Froome's Team Sky went to the front on the final climb and put everyone on the limit until there were only about 8 riders left. Then Froome attacked, only TVG could respond in any way at all at first, but unlike in the previous days when Tejay had managed to hold the gap and recover to limit time gains, Froome just went further and further away as Tejay finally cracked. 

It was a strong statement and an impressive acceleration from him again, he was sending out a warning to Contador and Quintana who were lining up the following week to do battle in the Route Du Sud that he was starting to hit good form at just the right time. A significant victory and a real confidence booster for Froome, and the squad. 

The TTT should be ok for them as they have brought a strong team to the race. I say should, because twice in recent races they have gone off as one of the favourites and flopped badly. Their performance in the Dauphiné over a similar course was particularly worrying as they had a good number of likely starters in Utrecht in the team and they were utterly ragged, being down to the bear minimum of 5 riders with 10kms to go. Stannard was dropped after 3kms and Roche was a passenger that was dangling off the back for several kilometres from the finish, holding the whole team up as they needed him as 5th man left. (below)

I think though with the right blend of riders at the peak of their fitness it will be a different ball game at the Tour. I don't think they have to fear losing a lot of time to Nibali or Quintana, if anything they should be looking to put time in to all of them, particularly Contador. He should also do well in the opening Prologue, probably the best out of the four favourites to give him an early psyshological boost.

Froome's biggest challenge could well be getting through the first week unscathed. With some tricky, windy stages along the north of Europe, including a day on the cobbles on stage 4. Froome will have to stay on his toes and stay safe, there are plenty of opportunities for a disaster, especially with a nervous, crowded peloton at the start of the race. The first real test of the race on stage 10 to La PIerre St Martin could well see Froome look to lay down a marker and take an early lead over some of his rivals, he tends to like to win early key mountain stages. He could also take the yellow jersey, but I wouldn't rule out someone with a healthy lead after a long break on one of the first 9 stages. 

If Froome survives the opening week in good shape, and possibly takes the jersey on stage 10, it may be hard to get it back off him. He and his team will be very hard to dislodge, they'll pull hard at the front on all the big climbs and put the likes of Valverde, Rodriguez and Nibali under pressure. Quintana and Contador will be possibly stripped of all team-mates by the time the last man pulls off the front and Froome sets those legs spinning in a frenzy of speed.

I think it’s going to be hard for him to drop everyone on every stage though, but he could get a gap on some rivals on a number of different stages and the cumulative effect could see him eke his way away from the pack bit by bit. Contador might be able to stay on his wheel one day, it might be Quintana another day.

Froome didn’t impress me much at the start of the year, even when winning in Andalucia, but the last few stages in the Dauphine showed that he is coming right and still has a few weeks to fine tune and get in top shape. He tweeted on Monday the 22^nd that he has done his Pyrenees recon rides, he had been there for a few days with Nico Roche and Porte, he’s now fine tuning with some intense efforts before he’ll start to wind it down again next week and recover for the Grand Depart. He is a worthy favourite and barring accident I can’t see him out of the top three.

Nairo Quintana - Movistar

11/4 Best Price (Boylesports)

Probably one of the finest climbers in the pro peloton right now, the diminutive Colombian is still a bit of an enigma. Shy, quiet, serious. He lets his legs do the talking. We hadn’t seen much of him in Europe this year, but he left a quality field behind him in the stage to Terminillo in Tirreno-Adriatico to win the stage and the overall victory.

Some recon training rides and recon races on the cobbles were useful exercises ahead of the first week of the Tour, and then he rode a measured training ride in the Tour de Romandie on a course that didn't really suit him but still finished 8th overall and 2nd in the Mountains Classification. Since then he disappeared back to Colombia to do his usual build-up, training in the hills before returning to take part in the Route Du Sud where he faced Alberto Contador.

Contador may have won the Queen stage and the overall GC, but to me Quintana was the winner on the day. He looked very, very impressive to me - super smooth, very relaxed, very calm, and very, very strong.He seemed to be able to respond to every move by Contador without ever looking in trouble and just coasted along behind in the saddle while Contador bounced and weaved all over his bike at times. Contador tried to ask him to work with him and he promised him the stage but Quintana refused to cooperate. Contador descended like a madman though whereas Quintana said he wasn't prepared to throw it all away with a crash on the descent, he let him go but then held the gap all the way to the line, holding off the chasers, showing that he still had plenty in the tank.

Quintana will lose time to all his rivals in the opening prologue, he would be the worst of the top four against the clock. He might also find it tough going on the opening stages, there will be some pretty chaotic and dangerous racing in the first 5 or 6 stages. He will need to be on his guard, like all the GC favourites, for stage 4 on the cobbles, his tiny little frame wouldn’t be built for the roads of Paris-Roubaix. His team will need to be around him in case of any accidents and he could find himself at the wrong end of the inevitable splits when some teams start hammering it at the front.

That was what happened to Contador last year of course when Lars Boom, Lieuwe Westra, Jacob Fuglsang and Nibali were on the right side of the splits, and behind them were Geraint Thomas and Richie Porte, who were now riding for GC with Froome having crashed out. Contador ended up losing 2'35" to Nibali who gained a nice early advantage over all the rest of the favourites, retaining his yellow jersey that he only relenquished once to Tony Gallopin on stage 9.

He should do ok on the two Mur stages but could get caught out by bad positioning and possible splits in the finale, it’s likely there will be time gaps all through the peloton as the narrow roads and steep finish will catch some out. He will need to stay at the front and alert. When the climbs start getting a little longer and harder in nature he will come in to his own though. It will be his repeated accelerations which will be needed to get away, He will need to attack, drop a few, tire some others, attack again, shake a few more off and go again until he’s on his own or with just one or two.

But to win this race though he will need to probably claw back some time after the first week but he might do better than expected in the Team Time Trial on stage 9. Movistar have a good squad for time trials with Dowsett, Malori and Castroviejo, all new national champions but they wouldn’t be as good as say BMC or possibly Astana maybe. I don't think he'll be worried about whatever time he loses to TVG though, it's Froome he'll be concerned with.

It was interesting to see how he rode in the Route Du Sud though - he looks fit and fresh and I really do think that he will comfortably beat Contador and Nibali when on the really big climbs. He will love the final week and he comes here a lot fresher than say Contador who has had a hard Giro and says he is still feeling tired after it, despite his fine preformance in the RDS.

He should do very well on the final stages and could well win the stage to Alpe d’Huez, but will he have too much time to make up at that stage? It’s possible and I think I might just hold off on my main stake on him for a while, in fact, he could even be a ‘Lay-to-back’ bet on Betfair at 3.65, I can’t see his price shortening in the first week, and if anything he could well go out in price if he has lost time on the cobbles or chaotic roads of the opening week. I think he is the most likely to give Froome some big problems and I think we will see the continued rise of a superstar this year as he cleans up in this Tour. I'm going to have some though at 11/4 though, will look to add to it in a week or so once we see how he's got through the first week.  

Alberto Contador - Tinkoff-Saxo

9/2 Best Price (Paddy Power)  

What can you say about Contador that hasn't been said already? Probably the greatest Grand Tour rider of the modern era, his palmares, even excluding the titles he has been stripped of, is incredible. Two Tour de France, two Giros, three Vueltas, three Pais Vasco and two Paris Nice. He is bidding to be the first rider to complete the Giro-Tour double since Marco Pantani seventeen years ago. 

He was already playing catch-up last year after a disastrous day on the cobbles and he was over two and a half minutes behind Nibali when he crashed and damaged his leg. I say damaged, they say broken, but we'll never know just how bad it was, all I know was that less than six weeks later he not only started the Vuelta, but won it comfortably from Froome, Valverde, Rodriguez and Aru.

His victory in this year's Giro was impressive in so far as even though he didn't win a stage along the way he was consistent and strong throughout almost the whole race. He started really well with a surprise second place in the TTT, giving them an early jump on some rivals, and when he finished 4th on stage 5 behind Polanc he took over the jersey which he only temporarily loaned to Fabio Aru on stage 13. On stage 16 when he was under attack by Katusha and Astana after puncturing he showed his power and his class to chase down and leave Fabio Aru behind. He had his hands full with Aru, Landa and Amador, but he coped comfortably right up until the second last stage where he showed that he is fallible after all and cracked. 

But that stage worried me though. It came at the end of a hard three weeks and he cracked badly on the final climb to Sestriere, almost coming to a standstill, before recovering a little and limiting his losses to the finish. I think we could see him crack like that on the final week of the Tour, he's had a hard Giro, and at the end of what is undoubtedly going to be a very hard and stressful TDF I can see him losing time to Froome and Quintana on some stages, I don't think Quintana will be playing around with him next time they meet, he'll just ride away from him.

It's a big ask to complete this famous double and I think he might struggle to achieve it. A top 3 is possible, he is a brilliant climber after all, but there might be better value elsewhere,  

Vincenzo Nibali - Astana

5/1 Best Price (Paddy Power)

The 'Shark of Messina' is bidding to be the first rider to land back-to-back Tour de Frances since Lance Armstrong, or if you ignore him, like you should, since Miguel Indurain in 1995 (and some say we should ignore him as well). I have mentioned already above that Nibali is the fourth in price of the four favourites, despite being the reigning champion. Should he really be nearly three times the price of Froome?

He took the race to the opposition from the start last year with a brilliant win on stage two to Sheffield. He followed that with a storming ride over the cobbles on the epic stage to Arenberg Porte Du Hainaut won by Lars Boom, to gain over two and a half minutes over Contador, on the same day that Froome hit the floor twice and abandoned.

This year he had been building up slowly with pretty mediocre rides, finishing down the field and never really threatening in several races, besides a few feeler attacks that never went far. In the Dauphine it looked to me like he was using it just for training again, even when he went on the attack on stage 6 with Costa, Gallopin and Valverde. I thought, good idea, get some attacking training in on a tough, hilly day, especially as there was no TV footage for the majority of the stage! What I didn’t expect was that he came to within 250 metres of winning the stage, trading for thousands of pounds at the bottom price of 1.01 (1/100) on Betfair before Costa came along and mugged him. 

So Nibali's build up has been slow and methodical with the plan to peak in July again like last year. We saw signs of that starting to bear fruit just last weekend when he won the Italian national road race championships for the second year running. He was impressive, attacking repeatedly, on the ascents, on the descents, dropping all bar two of the group he was in on the descent before the final climb. But can he win it again? I think he will find it very hard. He doesn't have the explosiveness of Froome or Quintana and he could well find himself isolated and alone when things get really hard at the top of the big climbs.

He is a fighter though and he may well look to mix things up by trying to steal a march in the first week on some of the challenging stages like last year, or steal a lead on a descent like in the Italian road race. The TTT could go either way for them but I think it will cost him time versus Froome and Quintana, more time than he might be capable of pulling back. I think it will be a real battle between him and Contador for the third podium spot and it's really hard to call it between them.  

Thibaut Pinot - FDJ

28/1 Best Price (Betfred)

The great French hope (one of many!) has been in good form of late and could well pull off a big ride again this year. Since March he has not finished outside the top 10 of any of the stage races he has entered, finishing 4th in Tirreno, 2nd in the Critérium International, 10th in Pais Vasco, 4th in Romandie and 4th in TDS just last week. 

In Switzerland he held the yellow jersey from stage 5 until the final stage, going in to the ITT with a 34" lead, but blew it with a poor TT to eventually finish 4th, even losing a podium position. He climbed very well, but his time trialling left him down, losing over a minute and a half to Spilak over 38kms. And that could be his achilles heel here too this year, FDJ have a pretty poor team when it comes to team time trials. They've not done a lot of TTTs with the guys that will be doing the TDF, the closest to it was probably in Romandie where they still lost 22" over just 19kms to a Sky team with several of their TDF guys in it. On that basis he could lose over a half a minute to the likes of Froome and Van Garderen and maybe 20" plus to Quintana and Contador. 

He wouldn't have a great team with him for when Sky, Movistar or Tinkoff-Saxo start shredding it at the front on the big climbs either, he'll be relying on Morabito and Geniez to look after him. He pulled off a major surprise last year by landing a podium spot, but it was obviously helped by the absent Froome, Contador and Quintana. It's going to be a big ask to dislodge those guys from a podium spot and there's little value I think in backing him at 28/1, he is going to be playing catch-up after stage 9 and I can't see him riding away and winning a stage against these teams by over a minute. Unless he manages to get in a break that manages to blow things apart and take a couple of minutes as the favourites dally and let them get too much of a lead. But I can't see that happening either. 

Tejay Van Garderen - BMC

33//1 Best Price (Betfred, Ladbrokes)

Tejay could well be a dark horse in this race, all he needs to do is just lift his performance a little from where he was at in the Dauphiné when he came oh-so-close to winning, leading up until the last 2kms of the last stage. I had backed him in that race at 10/1 as I expected Nibali to not be 100% and was hoping Froome wasn't either. I got the first part right, the second part half right.. Froome started badly, Tejay traded to 1/2 going in to the last stage where I went against him as a hedge against my original bet. He held a slim lead over Froome and had looked capable of holding on to it, but better be safe than sorry!. 

He had ridden very well in the race up until then, showing a maturity and strength that he has often lacked in the past, not over-reacting to the surges by Froome and calmly pacing himself back in to the race. He has a trump card up his sleeve in that his BMC team should be capable of putting over a half a minute or so in to Nibali, and maybe 20" in to Quintana and Contador, Froome might be a little closer. In a race that could see the top 6 separated by small margins, a minute head start on one of the favourites could be a huge advantage for TVG.

He signalled his abilities as a climber and his potential as a GC rider when he finished 3rd in the Critérium Du Dauphiné in 2010, a race he came so close to winning this year and followed that with 2nd in the Tour of the Algarve, 5th in the TOC and 3rd in the USA Pro Challenge in 2011. He then confirmed his potential with his breakthrough year in 2012 when finishing in the top 5 of Paris-Nice, Tour of California and the US Pro Challenge. But it was in the Tour de France that the passing of the guard from Cadel Evans became clear. He had to wait for his faltering team leader, clearly riding much stronger than him on stage 11 and he went on to finish in 5th with Evans in 7th place.

He was poor in 2013, finishing in 45th position, maybe the pressure of leading the team got to him or something, but he was never at the same level as the top guys that year. And then last year, even with Froome, Contador and Quintana not featuring in the final GC he still only finished 5th, another disappointing result for him. He bled time on a number of stages, losing time to Nibali over the cobbles, 20 seconds here and there, over a minute after getting caught up in a crash on stage 7, and before he knew it he was 3’14” behind Nibali with just seven stages gone. He eventually finished in a respectable 5^th place but over 11 minutes behind Nibali and over 3 minutes off a podium spot.

I think he looked really good in the Dauphiné, he was just unlucky that he was up against a resurgent Froome. He will come on for that experience though and will be fitter and stronger for the Tour and he will do a lot better than most in the two time trials. If he can hang on to Froome’s coat-tails like he did in the Dauphiné for as long as he can, he could well find himself in the middle of the battle for a podium spot. I don’t think he is good enough to win it, but is very capable of a top 6 finish, possibly even a top 3.  

Conclusion

This is a Tour like we have not had in a long time with so many contenders that could realistically win the race. There will be battles all over the course and we may not see all four of the big guns make it all the way to Paris, only Nibali has finished every Grand Tour he has entered. Quintana and Froome look like the two clear best climbers in the race but Contador, Nibali, Pinot, Van Garderen and a whole bunch of other guys will be on their tails waiting for a slip-up. 

And of course, it's not just the six guys above - there are a number of possible outsiders that could do a Peraud or a Pinot like last year, I've covered them in my Outsiders analysis and preview.

My final prediction is on the foot of my 'Outsiders' analysis. Click here to read that now.