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Published on Tuesday, 30 June 2015 07:12

Tour de France Outsiders 

Can anyone stop the Fab Four?

I have covered the Favourites in this other preview already, now let's take a look at the best of the rest to try to find someone who could possibly cause one of the shocks of the century by beating the four favourites. As I mentioned in the Favourites preview, there is apparently only about a 5% chance that the winner will come from all of the remaining 194 riders!

It's not unheard of to have big shocks though, particularly in getting on to the podium, Pinot and Peraud were huge prices to win last year, so the each-way bets were pretty tasty. Froome was a short price to win it in 2013 and there was a bit of a shock with Contador finishing off the podium, eclipsed by Quintana and Rodriguez. In 2012 Wiggins was hot favourite, but Froome was a bit of a surprise to follow his team-mate home in 2nd and in 2011 the big shock was Wiggo crashing out on stage 7, Evans winning and the two Schleck brothers in 2nd and 3rd was a pretty surprising podium. In general though the race tends to go to top one or two guys in the betting, but this year the competition is extremely close. Let's take a look at the best of the rest..

Joaquim Rodriguez - Katusha - 100/1 best odds (Betfair)

It feels odd to have Purito on this 'outsiders' section he has such a fantastic Palmares to his name - he has finished on the podium in stage races twelve times in his career, including 3rd in the TDF and the Vuelta and 2nd in the Giro. He has finished in the top 10 on ten Grand Tours and has won and has won stages in 6 out of the last 11 Grand Tours he has started. 

Purito started the season in pretty slow fashion but started to show some signs of life in Tirreno where he scored two successive 3rd place finishes, and followed that by winning two stages and the overall in the Pais Vasco after a scintillating time trial on the hills to Aia. Fourth in the Fleche-Wallone and 3rd in Liege-Bastogne were two excellent results, but he was a little off the pace in the Dauphiné, where he finished 8th overall. He climbed well but just lacked the explosiveness of Froome and the power of Van Garderen when things kicked off. 

The opening prologue will see him instantly start at a big disadvantage and the TTT could be painful for him too, Katusha would not have the greatest TTT squad in the world. They have been producing some sensational individual performances this year though, Spilak in the TDS was just another example, so would you bet against him? I think he will struggle to go with the fast climbers though when they kick off and he will lose lots of time in the TTs, so unless he can go in a break and steal back a LOT of time then I think he will be looking at 5th to 10th place. But don't rule him out of going for the KOM jersey or hunting for stages when his GC chances go.

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar - Best odds 110/1 (Betfair)

Mr Back-up plan number one. That is to say, Valverde will have to behave himself and tow the team line in support of Quintana, for as long as Quintana is still in the race and challenging. If something happens Quintana, expect Valverde to suddenly become a lot more aggressive and ambitious again. 

After a spectacular Classics campaign and start to the season where he finished 3rd in Strade Bianche, 2nd in AGR and won FW and LBL, he subsequently took a six-week break to go off to altitude training camps with Movistar. His subsequent reapparance at the Dauphiné was hot and cold, they rode a good TTT to finish 3rd, just 5" off BMC and 1" off Astana, with Sky 30" behind them.

He struggled a little on stage 5 to Pra-Loup, losing 1'54" to Bardet, a significant result as this was the replica stage of stage 17 in the Tour. He may well have been playing games though on this stage as the very next day he was super active at the start of the stage, going on the long-range attack with Nibali and Costa that ultimately won the stage. Valverde got dropped when Nibali put the hammer down on the final climb though, second day in a row he was dropped when it mattered most, throwing in the towel rather easily than we've come to expect from Piti.

He struggled also on the long climb to Mont-Blanc, losing over 2 minutes but that was understandable given his exertions of the previous day. 

A super strong and very intelligent rider when at his best, you'd expect Valverde to be a lot better come July. He will struggle on the opening prologue, which is a pity for him as he could have had a shot at taking the Yellow Jersey on stage 3 with the finish on the Mur Du Huy, the finish where he won this year's Fleche-Wallone. Expect him to work hard for Quintana, he could also be the guy who goes on the attack in the last 5kms to make Froome and others waste energy chasing, teeing up a Quintana attack.

He could be good enough for a top 10 place if it falls right for him. He has the chance though I think to do very well in the opening week and this is where Betfair comes in to its own. He was 130 on Betfair and I took 1 point of that, I think he could shorten a lot in the first week, where I would look to lay him back again for a risk-free profit on him. 
 

Richie Porte - Team Sky - Best odds 160/1 (Betfair)

Mr Back-up plan number 2 - last year I thought I was going to be in for an exciting run with my 66/1 on Richie after Froome crashed out, as he sat in 2nd place after 12 stages, but then lost 9 minutes the next day as he was struck down by illness. He did finish the race in 23rd place, but after he got sick he lost all interest in the race and didn't push himself much, no point.

He was my pick for the Giro and with Contador damaging his shoulder he took over as favourite for the race for a little while, but then he hit the deck and damaged his knee enough to put him out of the race. It was a very disappointing and annoying result for him, he was given his big chance (and a big van) to prove himself and the word was he was in the form of his life and climbing fantastically well. He had proven that with a series of wins in the earlier part of the season, including Paris-Nice.

We never really got to see his true form in the Giro over three weeks though, but we should in the Tour where he will be Domestique Deluxe for Chris Froome. He will probably be his lieutenant, the last man at his side when the race gets really serious, and he could also play the carrot game, attacking off the front to make Contador and Quintana chase him down. They will know they can't give him any rope as he is an excellent climber.

The prologue and the TTT should be to his liking and I have a feeling we could see an angry and frustrated Porte look to make a point in this race by being very agressive. He has been training with Roche and Froome in the Pyrenees, doing recon rides, so it looks like it could be the three of them are the last men standing in the Sky train. 

Just by staying close to Froome for as long as possible on the big climbs and by doing good time trials, Porte could find himself moving up the leaderboard like Froome behind Wiggins in 2012. At 160/1 on Betfair he's worth a small nibble, I'll try to get 20/1 or bigger on him to finish in the top 3 on Betfair, otherwise he is 66/1 with Bet365, a place will pay out 8.75/1 on your stake, or take the 9/1 with 888Sport to finish in the top 3.

Romain Bardet - AG2R - Best odds 110/1 (Betfair)

A fantastic victory on the stage to Pra-Loup in the Dauphiné had French cycling fans getting a little bit more excited about their prospects in July! Sixth in the TDF last year and 2nd in the Young Riders jersey competition behind Pinot, this boy has a bright future. He went balls-out in that descent before the final climb to Pra-Loup in the Dauphiné on roads he clearly knows well, despite all his denials after the stage. It is going to be almost impossible for him to get away with the same trick twice, Sky or Movistar are probably going to race at a blistering pace at the top of the climb to deter attackers, or if they don't he might find several others who are intersted in doing a copy-cat kamikaze descent off the Col d'Allos, they have video evidence now of how you can win this stage. 

He suffered a little the next day, getting dropped on the climb to Villard de Lans, losing 30" to Froome and 28" to TVG and on the final climbing stage to Mont-Blanc he was also struggling and getting dropped, but Vuillermoz did a brilliant job pacing him back and he ended up losing 1'08" when it looked for a while like it could be a lot more. 

He has been threatening to become a very decent GC rider for a couple of seasons now, and he could well put in a big performance here too. He still seems to struggle a little with recovery though so he could be under a lot of pressure going in to the final week. He will lose time in the prologue and the TTT and he could find it hard going also on the stage over the cobbles, so all in all, I think he will be lucky to break the top 5, meaning even a top 6 bet at probably odds-on doesn't really appeal all that much. I'm just looking forward to seeing if he trys the exact same move again on stage 17!

Rafal Majka - Tinkoff-Saxo - Best odds 80/1 (Boylesports)

Mr Back-Up Plan number 3! Winner of two tough stages in last year's TDF, plus a second place and a 3rd place on his way to capturing the mountains jersey, Majka turned out to be one of the stars and characters of the Tour, rescuing TS from the disaster that was Contador crashing out.

A strong climber and a pretty decent TT'er, Majka is going to be an important lieutenant for Contador in the mountains and a good engine for the TTT. Again though, like with Porte and Valverde, he is only going to get his chance to really shine if something happens to Contador, like last year. 

He has had a very poor start to the year though and he looked unfit and overweight in a number of his early races. He was off the pace in Paris-Nice and Pais-Vasco and struggled through the Ardennes Classics of FW and LBL. In Romandie he started to show glimpses of getting form back, with some solid riding. He finished with Froome and Quintana on the stage won by Pinot to Champex-Lac and did a reasonably good TT the next day to finish 9th and 7th overall, just 3" off a top 5 finish.

He then went off to altitude training camp with T-S and when he came back to the Tour du Suisse last week he was quoted as saying that he was in fantastic condition and that when he starts pulling at the front for Contador in the Tour there will not be many left by the time he's done. A brave call to make, especially as he went out and rode pretty ordinarily in the TDS, getting dropped on the big Queen Stage and losing 1'40" to Pinot, but he still managed to finish 10th overall.   

He could be like Porte in that if he sticks close to Contador he could do well on GC, but I don't think he's worth backing, even if twice the price he currently is.

Others?

We're getting down to the likes of Michal Kwiatkowski, who although he could do very well in both the time trial events, he gets dropped on longer climbs with gradients bigger than 5% so he'll not come close to a podium spot.

Jakob Fuglsang could be Mr Back-up Plan no. 4 for if anything happens to Nibali. He was the hot favourite though to win the Tour de Suisse but by the time he DNF'ed on stage 8 he was already 1'22" behind Pnot. He will be a solid member of that team and will lead Nibali on many of the stages, particularly over the cobbles like last year, and if they pull off a stroke like last year he could have a nice head start on the GC. It's very hard to see him besting the other top 5 favourites though, but having said that, Astana do seem to be riding extraordinarily well this year. He could possibly turn out to be the Tour's version of the Giro's Landa. 

Andrew Talansky, Rui Costa, Pierre Rolland and Rigoberto Uran are all around the 150/1 level but again it's hard to make a case for them winning, or coming close to winning the race. All four are capable of finishing in the top 20 though, possibly the top 10 but it's more likely they will be stage hunting instead. 

Dan Martin, Bauke Mollema and Wilco Kelderman are all as big as 200/1, prices that look quite big for some of them. Martin rode well in the Dauphiné but lacked that final bit of power to stay with the likes of Froome and Van Garderen when they kicked, but he hadn't expected to be challenging, he was still recovering from his broken ribs suffered in his crash in Fleche-Wallone. I expect him to be a lot fitter and stronger for the Tour and those odds might look a bit big if he does well on the opening week and finishes with the GC favourites on the first mountain finish on Stage 10. He won't start well though with the prologue and Cannondale-Garmin are pretty average at TTTs, but he should do well on the two 'Mur' stages in the first week, a time bonus or two isn't out of the question. He's one of the few outsiders that makes a small bit of appeal, but that could be the head ruling the heart!

Bauke Mollema and Wilco Kelderman are always being talked up as being the next big things but continue to disappoint and fall under the level expected of them. Both will be found out when the roads get really steep and neither interest me in the slightest any more, I think they'll struggle to break the top 10, possibly even finish the race. 

After these named above (and the six favourites I've named also, it's hard to really make a case for any of the rest even getting in to the top 3, yet alone winning the TDF. It will take either a massively suspicious rise in form or a series of incidents, accidents and disasters to the top contenders!

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS:

One of the most ridiculously competitive Tour's in all the years I've been betting on it. Quintana, Froome, Contador, Nibali, Van Garderen, Pinot - all with strong chances of winning this race. The TTT will be important, but how many of the favourites will be out of contention, or possibly even out of the race by the time they reach the TTT? A wild opening week is sure to have its casualties and heroes and if you are nervous about backing Froome, Contador or Quintana because of the first week, then I might suggest you hold off on doing so until maybe the first rest day. Or at least after stage 7, ahead of the stage 8 to the Mur de Bretagne and the TTT to Plumelec on stage 9, if you fancy your pick to go well in either, or both.

Going in order of preference, I am coming around to Quintana as the most likely winner of this race, and given the tough days in the Alps and the Pyrenees he will take all the beating. Despite Froome winning the Dauphiné like he did, i am marginally favouring Nairo over Froome. With the amount of climbing and with five summit finishes in the race, he will be in his element and could ride away from them all on several stages. Froome seems to be able to go in a blur of spindly legs and fast attacking, but lately has seemed to only be able to go for a short while and then has to ease back to a steady tempo again. Van Garderen was able to ride back up to him on several occasions in the Dauphiné until he finally cracked on the last stage, but even then, Froome only took seconds out of him.

I think Quintana will be able to stay with, or ride back up easily to a lot of Froome’s attacks and if Froome has exhausted himself, Quintana can skip away again. That’s how I hope it pans out anyway, I’m recommending Quintana over Froome to start with. Contador could be hit or miss here but he has history against him – the last man to do the Giro-Tour double was Pantani and we know he didn’t do it on pan-y-agua!

He looked vulnerable at the end of the Giro and although he looked strong and rode away from all bar Quintana on the Queen stage climb in the RDS, he looked to be labouring and having to work really hard, whereas Quintana was in cruise control. I think he might struggle when the pace gets really high on the last week on the big climbs, but is very capable of winning this or at worst finishing on the podium. He is smart, calculating and tough as nails.

Vincenzo Nibali is the enigma - he hasn't shown anything really this season to suggest he can beat these three superstars and that's reflected in the fact he's the 5/1 outsider of the four. Of course, he has no interest in winning in February or even May, July is his month, and if he gets it right he could go well again. The cobbled stage might give him an edge, but I'm sure other teams will not let him get the freedom he got last year. He has a battle on his hands just to make podium I think. 

Van Garderen could surprise a few and has a team packed with Classics talent to look after him on the first week and some good climbers in the shape of Caruso, Sanchez and Schar. It's in the TTs though that he could pick up a minute or more on the likes of Contador and Nibali and that could be a huge difference at the end of this race. He is as big as 65 on Betfair, is only 33/1 with most bookies, but the 7/1 with PP he finishes in the top 3 looks ok too.

Recommendations:

2pts win on Nairo Quintana at 11/4 on Betfair, hold off on placing a similar bet until maybe stage 8.

1.5pts on Tejay Van Garderen to finish in the top 3 at 7/1 with PP

0.3pts on Tejay to win at 64/1 with Betfair

1pt trading bet on Alejandro Valverde at 130 on Betfair, hoping to lay back around 50s

0.5pts win on Richie Porte at 160 on Betfair

0.5pts on Richie Porte to finish in the top 3 at 9/1 with 888Sport