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Published on Wednesday, 04 March 2015 23:43

Strade Bianche 

San Gimignano to Siena

Saturday 7th March 2015, 200kms

The Strade Bianche is an interesting race - in terms of the history of cycling, this race has none really to talk about, it has only been around since 2007. But what it lacks in history it makes up for in great racing. The 'Strade Bianche' is named after the chalk roads which make up some 70kms of the course, criss-crossing over the rolling hills of Tuscany. 

The race started in 2007 as the Monte Pashi Eroica and was orignally held in October - the first running of the race was won by Alexander Kolobnev. In 2008 it moved to its current place in the calendar in March, generally a week before Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2009 it was renamed the Montepaschi Strade Bianche and from 2012 has been known simply as the Strade Bianche! Other winners of the race include Thomas Lövkvist in 2009, Maxime Iglinskiy in 2010, Philippe Gilbert in 2011 and Moreno Moser in 2013.

Fabian Cancellara has a good record in this race, winning in 2008 and 2012, and he has also finished 4th, 5th and 6th - he has not finished lower than 6th in the 5 times he has enetered the race. Last year's race was blown to pieces for a long time, with riders scattered all over the road. There were really only about 30 riders in with a chance with 40kms to go and as some groups came back together with 21.6kms to go Peter Sagan shot through the pack like a bullet from a gun, rocketing up the hill as you can see in the video below. 

What was equally impressive as Sagan's acceleration was Kwiatkowski's jump to get on Sagan's wheel so quickly. The two of them formed a formidable partnership and time trialled away from a very strong group that included Kreuziger, Cancellara, Valverde, Stannard, Geschke, Amador and more. I had picked both Sagan and Kwiatkowski in my preview last year, and laid Sagan in running at something like 1/2 from what I can remember as Kwiatkowski looked far stronger. Here's hoping we can pick the first two home again this year!

Of course Kwiatkowski isn't taking to the start line this year as he is heading to Paris Nice, which starts on Sunday, but Peter Sagan is here and has been installed as the 7/2 favourite to win. Can he take his first victory of the season after so many near misses? 

The Route

The route leaves San Gimignano in north west Tuscany and heads south in an anti-clockwise loop until they get to the finish in Siena, not all that far from where they started. They cross 10 sections of Strade Bianche, the last 3 coming inside the last 30kms. The profile doesn't look all that difficult but the little hills are relentless and several are in excess of 15%.

The key battles amongst the favourites could start as early as 120km in to the race as they hit the two long sections of gravel road: section 6 which is 9.5km long between Lucignano d'Asso and Asciano and then section 7 which is 11.5km long from Ponte del Garbo to Torre a Castello after 147km. Section 9, with 19km to go should make another selection of some of the stronger men, as it is 2.4km long and hits a maximum of 15%, or it could even be like last year that the move is made a few kilometres before it in the rolling hills. Section 10 with just 13km left could see it whittled down even further as the 1.1km section of gravel hits a max of 18%.

But the section of road that could well decide the winner again comes just 1500m from the line as they hit the final hill up run to the finish line. It averages about 6% for a kilometre, hitting a max of 16% before dipping slightly for the last 300m. It is likely to be a small group of 10 or less that will hit that final few kilometres, and then it is the strongest man up the last hill that will win. They enter the old city under the arched entrance and after a sharp corner they enter in to the finish area in Siena's famous square. It was on this final hill that Cancellara rode away solo to take his two victories and where Kwiatkowski danced away from a tired Peter Sagan.

Contenders and Favourites

With Paris Nice starting the next day, we are missing a few contenders like last year's winner, Michal Kwiatkowski, but with Tirreno Adriatico only a matter of days after, we have lots of quality riders here looking for one last prep race. 

Peter Sagan is the 7/2 favourite with Paddy Power, who once again are the first bookie out with their prices. The problem is that they don't offer much value in the opening market, and it can often be worth waiting a little while for some of the others to open to try to search out some value. With that in mind I'm going to hold off on my full analysis of the favourites and contenders until there are some more prices out from a few more bookies. 

So it's Thursday night at 9pm and so far we have Paddy's, Ladbrokes and Bet365 and all three have Sagan the same price, 7/2 favourite.. So what do we make of the favourite then? This is a race that takes a real all-rounder, but more so the real strong men. There are lots of hills to get over but also lots of really fast parts. The chalk roads are challenging and can be dangerous at times, and can really sap the energy. And of course the finish requires an explosion of power up that last kilometre, especially in the parts that hit 16% inside the last 500m. Sagan has the perfect profile based on that description, but he hasn't had great luck in the race for the last three years!

In his first ride in the race in 2012 he suffered a puncture and a crash despite being in a good position towards the business end. In 2013 he chased home his team-mate Moreno Moser who had attacked the remains of his break as they hit the final steep parts and took the 'win' from the bunch. In 2014 he was beaten by Kwiatkowski who was the better man at the finish. So what this year? Well his season has been a similar story to his record in Strade Bianche - lots of good results, but no wins. He's had a break since the 22nd February but is sure to be involved in all the key action again. Do we back him at 7/2 though? I'm not. I just have a feeling he will be marked too closely and will not get away on his own, which is his best chance of victory I feel. I've not been overly impressed by him yet this year so I can't be backing him at that price.

This race is a real race of attrition - there is no such thing as a peloton once they hit the last 30kms. So it's very important to have a strong few team-mates to help you at the finish. Also, there is going to be a cross-wind for most of the day so there is even more of a chance of the race being broken to bits by the stronger guys. Probably the strongest team here on the startline is BMC - Greg Van Avermaet has the support of Allesandro de Marchi, Brent Bookwalter, Damiano Caruso, Daniel Oss, Manuel Quinziato, Samuel Sanchez and Peter Stetina - a formidable lineup. 

Van Avermaet has done well here in the past - he was very agressive in 2012 in trying to set up his team-mate Allesandro Ballan, with his big dig with 13.3kms to go only serving to launch Cancellara on his race-winning move! He finished 5th that day and 6th in 2013 but didn't ride it in 2014. GVA would have been a big favourite for me for this race had the news not broken last week of his doping investigation. Hard to know how he will ride in this now - if he really is worried about it it could affect his performance. If he is not he could be riding full of anger and aggression. And if he thinks he is going down, who knows what sort of motivation he will have! The 18/1 he is with Bet365 is tempting though I must say.. He could podium here with that team support. 

Of course Fabian Cancellara has a great record in this race as I mentioned before, winning it twice in 2008 and 2012. Cancellara showed he still possesses all his power and race skills with a great victory in the stage he won in Oman, beating Van Avermaet and Valverde in the sprint after the lumpy, hilly finish. He has Stuyven, Arredondo and Felline with him but it is a far weaker looking team than say BMC's. Not that Cancellara really needs it, he can win these sorts of races on his own! 10/1 3rd favourite with PP, he will have his supporters for sure. 

2nd favourite is in fact Alejandro Valverde though and it is of course the kind of finish that he will love - and he is likely to be in the decisive moves towards the end of the day. Last year was the first time he rode the race and was in the little group that Sagan launched himself out of with 21kms to go. As is often the case with him though he expected someone else to go after the two up front and as a result didn't make it in to the race-winning move, but was strong enough to jump away from his chase companions on the finishing stretch to take 3rd place.

He doesn't have a great team with him but Visconti has gone well here in the past and Amador, Lastras and Ventoso will help keep him up front. If he can get to the finale with the leading group he has a great chance of winning the race. The 7/1 with PP looks big, he's only 4/1 with Bet365. He isn't riding Paris-Nice or Tirreno over the next week or so, and after taking a break after Oman he is fired up for a big result here. 

Zdenek Stybar is a similar price to Valverde and has a similar style to Kwiatkowski for this finish and comes here with an interesting looking Etixx-QS squad that includes Uran, Brambilla, Serry and Vermote and of course, strong man Niki Terpstra. As I wrote when previewing last weekend's races he has started the year very impressively, and he proved that with two good rides in the Omloop and KBK. He should handle this surface without a problem, being a cyclo-cross champion and has shown his climbing strength already this year. He has the formidable power of Terpstra to look after him and after another debacle by E-QS in Le Samyn, they will be desperate to make amends again. He has the finishing kick to win this too so it is just a matter of being there at the finish to be in with a big shot at winning also. The 10/1 with Ladbrokes appeals.

We also have the Classics specialists Vanmarcke, Stannard and Terpstra as I said before, and all three should be involved in the main action. Stannard struggled a little towards the end of this last year, and after his efforts last weekend he might be a little fatigued again. Vanmarcke has been riding very, very strongly without much reward as the races haven't fallen his way so far. I think though that the power he showed in both the Omloop to chase the leaders after his puncture and his power up the Kwaremont in KBK means he has a real big chance in both Flanders and Roubaix this year. I backed him in an each-way double this week as my first bets for the big two races, 1pt e/w at 6/1 and 13/2 with Ladbrokes. Pays 57 points profit if he wins both or 4.2pts if he places in both. But I think he'll be looking after himself in Strade to ensure he arrives in Flanders at the top of his game.

After that, it is wide open. Moreno Moser has been supported ever since the market opened, purely because his opening price was just so big. He was 150/1 with PP for a little while but that was snapped up - that was a crazy price for a former winner of this race. Even the 50/1 was big and that didn't last long either. He is now in to 33/1 best price, but I can't see him winning again to be honest. Simon Gerrans is making his first appearance of the year and his first appearance in the SB so it is hard to know how he'll go. I'd like to think he'd go well and I'm tempted by the 33/1 but I think it is a very big ask to best some of the in-form guys in your first race of the season. 

Romain Kreuziger should be working for Sagan, so hard to know how he'll fare, but he has gone well here in the past. Gavazzi, Cunego, Pozzato could go well for the Italians, as could Rinaldo Nocentini at a big looking 66/1. 3rd here in 2013, his tiny little frame is perfect for that explosive finish. He's had a pretty mediocre start to the season though, and as tempting as the 66/1 is I think I might leave him for now.

One guy who I am looking forward to seeing how he rides is Sky's Peter Kennaugh. He has been in good form already this year and was one of the strongest climbers in Andalucia, helping Froome to get back at Contador. The British champion has a decent kick in him and may well be looked after by Stannard rather than the other way around. If Stannard puts the hammer down on one of those hard hills he could blow it to pieces and help set up Kennaugh. At 50/1 I have to have an interest, I've been told that a big ride is expected of him.

So it's a devilishly difficult race to predict - anything can happen and the race is usually in pieces coming to the last 20kms and especially the hard, steep bit of chalk road that hits 18% with 13kms to go. I think Valverde, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar, Cancellara are all going to be involved at the finish, and I'm leaning towards Stybar outsprinting them up the final hill. Kennaugh can go well at a big price too. Valverde has to be backed as a saver too though I think as this finish is so good for him. Bongiorno, Brambilla and Lutsenko could be wild cards at 250/1 for each of them.

Update: Zdenek Stybar tweeted this today, made me happy with my choice! 

— Zdenek Stybar (@zdenekstybar) March 6, 2015

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Zdenek Stybar at 10/1 with Ladbrokes

1pt win on Alejandro Valverde at 7/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Peter Kennaugh at 50/1 with Ladbrokes 

Match Bets:

Roman Kreuziger to beat Nibali - 2pts at 4/6

Nocentini to beat Cunego - 2.5pts at 6/5

Kennaugh to beat Montaguti & Van Avermaet to beat Vanmarcke - 1pt on the double, pays 6/4 - all with Bet365