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Published on Friday, 29 August 2014 22:56

Vuelta a España St. 8

Baeza to Albacete

Saturday August 30th, 207kms 

Stage 8 is back to being a sprinters stage after a few days in the hills which showed us just how well Alberto Contador and Chris Froome have recovered from their injuries, Froome in particular showed today just how much he is up for the fight, stealing 2" from Contador and co. 

This should be straight forward for the sprinters teams, but let's hope they don't let the break have too much rope like today when my worst fears were realised and no-one wanted to chase the break of the day. De Marchi finally got reward for his multiple attacks in the TDF which yielded nothing and even Hesjedal got 2nd place despite crashing heavily on a bend.  

The Route

Not a lot to say about today's route so I won't try to make it sound interesting! It's a dead straight route heading north-east and almost appears flat on the profile with no major climbs to get over. The profile is a little misleading though as it does disguise that they do climb some 470m between the 75km and the 139km mark, but that's an average of just 0.7% over those 64kms, but it is just one long drag upwards. From the highest point on the map at Robledo it is all downhill for the next 68kms to a fast sprint finish in Albacete. 

At the 4km to go point, after a long straight run towards Albacete they go around the periphery road around the town, taking in 4 roundabouts along the way. Then with 900m to go they take a right on the final roundabout and on to the Paseo la Cuba, and it is an arrow straight 900m run to the line. 

One thing to watch out for will be the cross-winds, there are winds expected of around 10-15mph coming at them from the south-easy, meaning they will have cross winds and a head wind for a lot of the day. It may be that we see the likes of Tinkoff-Saxo and OGE look to split it and the likes of Bouhanni will have to stay alert and near the front. We saw what can happen on an innocuos piece of road on stage 6..

Contenders and Favourites

This looks like the perfect opportunity for Nacer Bouhanni to land his second stage win of the race and in doing so land the even money bet I recommended on him winning two stages or more in the 'Other Markets' preview.

There will be the inevitable break but I think FDJ, OGE and G-S will have enough firepower to ensure we get another sprint finish. They may even be helped out by Belkin (for Hofland), Trek (for Stuyven) or Lampre-Merida for Ferrari or Richeze. 

Nacer Bouhanni tried to go up a gap that didn't exist and there wasn't a commissaire's committee in the world would have upheld his complaints on Stage 5 against Degenkolb. He looked held too possibly at the time, he was running out of road to make up about 5m on a flying Deggers. He was not happy about the outcome so I expect him to be all out to make amends and take revenge here. If he does win we are sure to see a super-agressive, chest thumping, fist-pumping celebration as he makes his point... 

FDJ have a nice long run in to set him up and as long as they can negotiate the roundabouts safely and get to the last 900m straight with a few men, most importantly his main man Geoffrey Soupe, then he is going to be very hard to beat once he launches his sprint with 200m to go. He is pretty short at even money, but if it does come to a sprint finish then he would probably be about 1/3 and almost a certainty.. So it's 50/50 almost that it ends in a bunch sprint, I give it about an 80-90% chance. There is slightly better than evens available on Betfair but I think we might get 5/4 or so if patient.

In their last head to head John Degenkolb beat Bouhanni, but the finish was very different to this one. Then there had been a lot of climbing to take the sting out of Bouhanni's legs and also the finish was uphill, something more suited to Degenkolb. I think Deggers should come very close to winning this again but I think he doesn't have Bouhanni's topline speed when he gets going. We may see Bouhanni launch first from second or third wheel with Koen de Kort behind trying to launch Deggers but Bouhanni's acceleration should get him enough of a lead to hold on as Deggers winds it up to full speed late on. 

Others who can get in on the act? Michael Matthews struggled on the flat stage 2 and 5 (12th and 11th) so although he is flying on the uphill type stages, he's not so hot on the flat ones. He may well get closer this time but I'm not taking the chance. Roberto Ferrari has been there or thereabouts on the two flat sprints, taking 3rd on Stage 2 and 10th on Stage 5. Lampre-Merida seem to have a few men willing to lead him out and they may just click again.. If you remove Bouhanni and Degenkolb, there isn't a great deal of top sprinting talent here and Ferrari would certainly be one of the better Division two sprinters who should be getting close on these sorts of finishes, it's not often he'll get this sort of freedom. At 22/1 he might be worth an each-way shot. 

Jasper Stuyven of Trek has been sprinting brilliantly on the flat stages 2 and 5, taking a 4th place finish in both. He is buzzing from those results and thinks be can go better. I think it's very difficult for him to best Bouhanni or Degenkolb again, but he could well be figthing it out again for a podium place tomorrow and 50/1 looks appealing.

Moreno Hofland may have a few less men to lead him out now that Gesink and Kelderman are in the top 10, they will be asked to look after themselves instead. As a result Hofland might have to rely on Paul Martens, who looks in very good form at the moment. Hofland has been sprinting ok too when he has got the chance, taking 3rd on stage 5 behind Degehanni. He could be a big danger again tomorrow if Belkin can drop him off on Bouhanni's wheel coming to the last kilometre.

Lloyd Mondory of AG2R has finished 13th, 7th, 7th and 6th so far in the four sprint stages and is getting closer as he starts to get up to full speed. I think it might be a step too far though to suddenly win this, I think another 5th to 10th place finish for him. Vicente Reynes has been going well for IAM too, only just being passed by John Degenkolb in the shadow of the gantry on stage 4 for the win. 8th on Stage 5 is probably more his place though and that's where I think he'll finish tomorrow, 5th to 10th at best. Andrea Guardini is too hit and miss for me, more misses than hits for my liking at a short looking 16/1.

It was a painful day today catching up on the results and seeing a complete whitewash, two bad days in a row now.. Hopefully we'll get back on track with Bouhanni landing the main bet and the ante-post 2 stages or more bet.

Recommendations:

Try to get 3pts on at 5/4 or better on Betfair on Bouhanni, maybe even in-play should a break get a decent lead.

0.3pts each-way on Roberto Ferrari at 22/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Stuyven at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

Match Bets 

Hofland to beat Matthews - 1pt at 5/6

Stuyven to beat Debusschere - 1pt at 4/5

Reynes to beat Sbaragli - 1pt at 8/11

Hofland to beat Matthews, Mondory to beat Maes, Ferrari to beat Gatto and Reynes to beat Sbaragli - 1pt at 5/1 with Bet365 

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