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Published on Saturday, 30 August 2014 21:56

Vuelta a España St. 9

Carboneras De Guadazaón to Aramón Valdelinares

Sunday August 31st, 185kms 

Stage 9 takes the race in to Aragon and up to a mountain normally more famous for it's skiing, being a winter ski station. It's a long tough stage with three classified climbs to get over, increasing in difficulty as they near the finish, from a Cat 3 to a Cat 2 to a Cat 1 at the finish. 

Stage 8 was a winning main bet with Bouhanni landing the stage as expected, but not after a scare when Matthews rightly lodged a complaint because of Bouhanni's flick in the last 50 metres. It was actually two against two in the commissaires votes as to whether he would keep the stage or not but in the end they gave it to him. It's annoying that Hofland and Reynes got caught out today as they match bets wiped away the profit from the main bet. 

As predicted the winds caused havoc and despite it being an 'easy' flat day there were riders all over the place and at one point Bouhanni and Degenkolb were in a second group, 15" back with just 6kms to go but they made the juncture in time to set up the sprint. 

The Route

The route takes them north-east out of central Spain and up in to the Aragon Province, on a twisty, winding route that will be a bit of a relief maybe from the big wide open spaces they have been riding through in recent days. What will also be a relief to them will be a drop in temperatures, the forecast is for a positively Arctic conditions in the morning of just 18º, rising to just 21º by the afternoon! Not only that but there is a 40% chance of rain and storms in the afternoon as they head towards Valdelinares.

At the start, they rise slowly for 50km, then drop 500m in 10kms. They then climb gently for another 46kms, through the first intermediate sprint of the day and on to the foot of the first obstacle of the day, the Cat 3 Puerto de Cabigordo. This climb is long at 18kms and the average gradient of 3.8% is deceptive as the climb goes up in steps and there are some downhill and flat parts along the way dragging down the average. There are parts at 6,7 and 8% near the lower slopes and the last 5kms are an average of 6.3%, hitting a max of 9.2%. 

From there they descend for the best part of 34kms, through the second intermediate sprint and arrive at the foot of the final climbs. It's almost one long climb but they have split it in to two for the purposes of the KOM competition. The first climb, the Cat 2 Alto de San Rafael is 11km long and climbs 500m, averaging 4.3%. It goes up in steps a little again and hits 10% max near the top. A short 5.5km descent later and they are already on the final climb of the day up to the ski station at Valdelinares. 

The final climb is a Cat 1 climb over 8kms that average 6.6%. It is a pretty steady gradient the whole way up but it does get a bit steeper with 2.5km to go for about 1500m where it hits 8.5% averages, but then eases to an almost flat 2.5% for the last kilometre for the sprint finish, if there is a small group comes here together. 

Contenders and Favourites

To me Stages 6 and 7 left us with more questions than answers with regards trying to find a winner here.. Froome and Contador are clearly going much better than could possibly have been expected of two men recovering from bad injuries. Alejandro Valverde found some extraordinary power to drive up the hill to La Zubia until only 8 men could stay with him, yet was still able to find the strength to chase down Rodriguez and sprint away for the stage win. Quintana couldn't go with the pace and lost time, but that was sort of expected, I did call it ahead of Stage 6 that he can sometimes take time to get going in a GT.

Dan Martin suffered in the heat as did Wilko Kelderman, this cooler, possibly wetter stage should be much more to their liking. Joaquim Rodriguez rode well, looked like he would take the stage to La Zubia (he traded down to around 1.7 when he attacked, where I managed to lay 3pts) but just didn't have the legs and was caught and passed by Valverde, Froome and Contador.

Fabio Aru, Chaves, Navarro and Gesink all rode really well, just didn't have the power at the finish to stay with the first 4 home. So where does that leave us all now for this stage? And what about some of the other climbers that were left well behind on stage 6? Can they get involved tomorrow? It looks like a perfect stage for a breakaway, but with it being on a Sunday, prime time TV viewing and all that, and the fact it is the day before a rest day we should see plenty of action. Add in that the very next stage after the rest day is the time trial where most of the pack are going to lose time to Chris Froome and we should see some aggressive racing from his main GC rivals.

Chris Froome though is looking very good - the way he chased down and came around Purito on La Zubia was very impressive. No signs of his wrist injuries holding him back at the moment. The little attack by him on stage 7 at the finish was ballsy and ambitious - he has shown he is prepared to take the fight to Valverde and co. and values every second - remember he lost the 2012 Vuelta by just 13"... A small gap win would be big for him, but even bigger could be the 10" bonus for winning, a big pychological blow ahead of the TT. 

Froome has been backed in to 13/8 favourite now for the overall, with Quintana out to 2/1 and I can't argue with that on the face of it, he has been more impressive with Quintana. With Valverde fighting for red, yet claiming Quintana is still their main man, you wonder do they know something about Quintana's true form they're bluffing about? Hard to know, but with a week under his belt, if Quintana isn't firing on all cylinders by tomorrow and loses some more time to Froome his race could be over before he even really gets going.. 

Valverde was very strong Thursday and you'd have to think he must be one of the favourites to land this stage again with the flatter last kilometre and sprint to the line if it comes down to a select group of 5 or 6 again. His card is marked now though and the rest know what sort of form he is in. They might have to attack from further down to try to weaken and drop him before the sprint, they will know if it comes to a sprint he has the beating of most of them. It will be interesting to see the team dynamic this time, will Quintana have better legs? If not, does Valverde wait and work for him this time or will he defend his jersey and leave Quintana to fight for himself again?

With another stage under his belt and a good initial effort from Rodriguez on Stage 6 which came up just a little short, will he be able to up his game a notch to take this? Ordinarily you'd have him as one of the top favourites given the last 3kms.. But he has been doing this for nearly two months now - attacking and fading.. he is not the Purito of old who would have attacked Thursday and they wouldn't have had a hope of catching him.. He is just lacking the stamina and final power to close out a stage win and I think we might see the same tomorrow. 

What abot Dan Martin then.. He has said about his failure to respond on La Zubia that he was suffering in the heat and that his legs are still in great shape - he tried to prove that on stage 7 with a canny attack in the last 300m that netted him a few seconds but also must have given him a little confidence boost back after Stage 6. This sort of climb should suit him well - the gradients around 8% are perfect for him and the flatter finishing section is right up his street too as he has a pretty decent sprint on him in situations like that. Whether he can stay with Valverde and Froome and the like tomorrow at the business end of the stage is the big question though - if he does he has a serious chance of a top 3 place on the stage. 

Who else can get involved? Well the likes of Talansky, Meintjes, Pardilla, Chaves, Yates, De Marchi, Aru, Kelderman, Sanchez and the like could be involved, either through the break of the day, a late break or possibly coming to the final climb still in the main group. Aru, Chaves and Kelderman in particular rode well but just faded on Stage 6 and could do better here in the cooler temperatures. Jurgen Van den Broeck came here to fight for stage wins but we haven't seen much of him so far, maybe he could get in a break finally tomorrow on a stage that should suit him well, and 150/1 with Skybet looks a nice price for a small bet.

I don't think Quintana and Contador will be good enough to win. I don't think Rodriguez will be able to shake the best guys and win. That leaves Valverde, Froome and maybe Martin as the three favourites to take the stage. Valverde and Froome are 9/2 each on PP and Dan Martin is 16/1 with Skybet. At those sort of prices I don't want to call it between Froome and Valverde and will wait for in-play. As for Dan Martin, if he is still in contention, which I think he could well be given the slightly easier climb and better weather conditions, then I'd be kicking myself that I hadn't taken the 16/1 on him. It's a very hard stage to call and not one to go mad on I think but a few bets below could give us an interest on the break or at the finish. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dan Martin at 16/1 with Skybet

0.2pts each-way on Louis Meintjes at 80/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Adam Yates at 33/1 with Paddy Power

0.2pts each-way on Jurgen Van den Broeck at 150/1 with Skybet 

0.25pts each-way on Sergio Pardilla at 125/1 with Paddy Power

Match Bets 

Adam Yates to beat Dani Moreno 1pt win at evens

Zubeldia to beat Monfort -1pt at 5/4

JVDB to beat de Clercq,  Martin to beat Uran and Chaves to beat Navarro -1pt at 3/1, all with Bet365

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