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Published on Friday, 09 May 2014 22:44

Giro d'Italia Stage2

Belfast to Belfast

Saturday 10th May, 219kms 

After a dramatic opening day which saw Daniel Martin's race over with less than 20kms done, Orica-Greenedge justified favouritism, but only just! OPQS pulled off a storming ride to finish just 5" back with BMC just another 2" back in 3rd. Losers on the day were Quintana who lost 55" and worse again was Joaquim Rodriguez who lost 1'33".

It was a shocking crash which took Dan Martin down, he seemed to not see a raised manhole cover on the road which the rest of the team rode over.. He seemed to be jolted upwards and came crashing down, bringing three team-mates crashing with him. I had backed Giant-Shimano to beat Garmin-Sharp in a match bet in-play at 5/6 and I was never so disappointed to win a bet. 

Stage 2 then will start with a bit of a cloud for Garmin and all the Irish Dan Martin fans who were waiting to cheer him along, but no such emotions for OGE who were absolutely thrilled to put their birthday boy Svein Tuft in to the first pink jersey of the race by letting him cross the line first. 

The stage takes the riders on a tour around the north east corner of Ireland in a stage that on paper should end in a bunch sprint and a first stage victory for Marcel Kittel. There could be a lot more to it than that though as the opening road stage of any grand tour is often crash-filled as a large, nervous peloton filled with energy jostle for position. Add in the likelihood of wet and windy conditions and it could be even more dangerous than normal.

This is the first opportunities for the sprinters to strut their stuff and there will be a really interesting battle in Belfast tomorrow afternoon.  

The Route

Italy may be spectacularly beautiful in places, but this stage will showcase some of the prettier areas of Northern Ireland as they head north past Antrim, Ballymena and towards Portrush on the coast. There will be no stopping for whiskey like in the good old days of the Tour as they pass the Bushmills distillery and ride past the famous Giant's Causeway, which legend has it was created when the mythical Irish Warrior Finn MacCool built a causeway across the sea to go and fight his scottish enemy Benandonner. 

After that they skirt clockwise along the coast to the first KOM points of the race at Cushendale Road and continue to hug the coast all the way down to Larne and Whitehead before taking a right turn towards the next KOM at Knocknagullagh. Both of the 'climbs' are just little hills though so hopefully Kittel will not get himself dropped again! From then on it's a straightforward, flat run in to the finish in Donegall Square North. 

Contenders and Favourites

Marcel Kittel certainly looks the fastest sprinter in the world right now, when everything goes right for him. Add in the fact that Cavendish and Greipel are not here and he must be very confident of landing several stages in this year's Giro. In fact he is only 5/4 to win 4 stages or more which is very short indeed given how he can get lost sometimes in the last km. But neither would I be keen to bet against it!

His season has been pretty good but could have been a lot better you could argue. Three stage wins in Dubai (admittedly against lower quality sprinters) got the year off to a good start, but then nothing for two months until he took the Scheldenprijs in April. Romandie saw him priced (badly) as favourite for the first three stages and each day I predicted he would not contest and so it was.. he was dropped on every little climb they hit. He did pull off a stunning TT in the race to finish 3rd, just 4" behind the winner Kwiatkowski but ahead of Tony Martin. This showed that he is coming in to some really good shape ahead of the Giro. 

The final stretch of the stage will be interesting though as they come to the last bend, 300 metres from the line at very high speeds, will have to slow right down for the bend and then try to get up to top speed again very quickly. A good lead out to that last bend will be crucial and Team Giant-Shimano is one of the best. They have Koen De Kort, Albert Timmer and Bert De Backer to drive it in the last few kms before Luka Mezgec and final lead-out man Tom Veelers take over. But expect Kittel to be in the right place and one of the first to jump once they are out of that last bend. He has explosive power that could get him a gap that the rest won't be able to close. 

I think he will win this stage tomorrow and Paddy Power are running a great concession for the Giro, where they are returning stakes if any Italian wins a stage. Here is a great opportunity because I think Kittel will win, but his biggest danger could be Elia Viviani, so if Viviani wins we get our stake back! 

Elia has been flying in recent weeks and as I wrote in my Sprints Jersey preview he has been working on his sprint since the track races of the winter in preparation for an assault on the Giro. I can see him being a real challenger to Kittel in these first sprints and these first stages could be his best chance as he may be carrying slightly faster speeds right now on the back of his successes in Turkey. 

Nacer Bohanni of course will be fancied by some tomorrow and may well take the 3rd spot on the podium. With 5 wins and a bunch of top 3 placings this year he has clearly been in great form. Interestingly though he has only raced once in a month, at the GP de Denain Porte du Hainaut, which he won, but the competition was pretty average. In the highest quality field he has faced this year though at the Tour of Oman he failed to win and I think we will see a 3rd to 5th place for him at best.

Of the others, Michael Matthews is sure to be on a high after the TTT today and could be involved, the pressure is off OGE now. But I think it will be too fast and furious for Nizzolo and Pettachi. Swift might be involved but I think he might like it a bit lumpier. The only other rider I fancy to maybe sneak in to the picture would be Tyler Farrar, a day after the anniversary of his good friend Wouter Weylands death he should be fired up to deliver a result. At 9/2 with 888Sport to finish in the top 3 it's worth a small bet. 

Recommendations:

4pts on Marcel Kittel to win at 4/5 with Paddy Power's concession (or 11/10 with BetVictor if you don't think Viviani is the man to beat him!)

2pts on Elia Viviani to finish in the Top 3 at 4/5 with 888Sport

0.5pts on Tyler Farrar to finish in the Top 3 at 9/2 with 888Sport

#10to500 challenge bet: £14.44 going on Matthews to beat Swift in a match bet at 4/7 

1pt on Chicci to beat Ruffoni at 4/6 

1pt on Farrar to beat Ferrari at 5/6

2pts on Bouhanni to beat Nizzolo at 4/9

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