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Published on Saturday, 31 August 2013 22:05

Vuelta Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9 - Antequera to Valdepeñas de Jaén 163.7km

Nicholas Roche rode his socks off today to take the Red Jersey after a dramatic climb up the Alto de Peñas Blancas, riding away with Basso, Pinot, Konig, Moreno and De Clerq. He took 3rd on the stage to land our 20/1 each way recommendation to cap the day off.  

A stage that ambled along as expected, exploded in to life, as expected once the riders hit the slopes of the Peñas Blancas. A large break of some 13 riders including Cataldo and De Weert had built a lead of 4 1/2 minutes at one point but the peloton, led by a Net App team full of ambitions and plans always had the gap under control and hitting the climb the gap was just over a minute. Cataldo pressed on and only Nerz was able to stay, but behind things were getting lively as Anton attacked and quickly built a lead of about 25".

Horner went after him and thinned the peloton down a little more as Kreuziger and Mollema among many others went out the back door. The main favourites though did as I thought they would though and just ended up watching each other - it's why I recommended steering clear of backing them for today's stage. With 3.5km Capecchi kicked things off, Horner went next, followed by Nibali and Basso, but interestingly Valverde and Rodriguez weren't to be seen at that moment.

They came back together though but then the decisive move came when there was an easing at the head of the group as Konig went, followed by Pinot, then Moreno, Roche and Basso, who took off in pursuit of Anton. I took the opportunity to lay some of Anton at 1.7 and 2.0 in running as I was sure he would be pulled back with that quality chasing him. Konig jumped again with 1km left and passed Anton thankfully with 500m to go. Basso was riding a superb race today and together with Moreno they tried to give chase but couldn't catch Konig. Roche's 3rd place was enough to put him in Red. Nibali lost some time to Valverde and Rodriguez but reports say he slipped his chain in the last 500m, something that happened him a few times in the Giro too.

Stage 9 is going to be another cracker with a brutal finish up the fabulous spectacle that is the climb of the Valdepeñas de Jaén. It may only be a kilometre long, but it is a savage challenge at the end of what will have been a tough day (and the 9th straight day of hard racing!). The streets are narrow and hit gradients of 20%+ for quite a bit of it, maxing out at 30%! 

But there is more to the stage than that final climb, as the riders have to get over the 2nd Cat Alto de los Frailes which officially starts with just 20km to go, but in reality they will have been climbing the approach to it for about another 50km. The final 10km is a very fast descent before they hit the wall that is the Valdepeñas de Jaén. That last climb can be a springboard for attackers to try their luck ahead of the descent and finish, but unless they have a minute or more at the foot of it they can forget about staying ahead on the run to the line. 

Rodriguez won this stage the last time they came up here in 2011 after going on the attack with Moreno, only Nibali and Poels could stay with them, but when Rodriguez kicked with 300m to go he was on his own. The year before he tried to win the stage in the same manner but attacked too early and was passed by Igor Anton. Interestingly they are almost joint favourites around 3/1 - On form you would have to go with Moreno, he looks to be on fire at the moment and this sort of finish is perfect for him. On the other hand, Rodriguez is the team leader and you would expect him to do like he did last year and tow him to the 300m sign and let him attack again. I think though that Rodriguez isn't quite firing on all cylinders just yet. I am going to side with Moreno for tomorrow and will be having a good bet on him at 3/1 or bigger if I can get it. I think we may see something like today with Nibali, Valverde and Purito all watching each other (I don't think any of the three are 100% right just yet) and other attacks going away, attacks which may be either led, or followed by Moreno.

If Moreno goes, Roche will have to chase as a 10" bonus and more than a 7" gap will see Moreno take the Red Jersey off him again. With that incentive I can see Moreno going for it, Purito will get his chance next week.. the Vuelta will not be won tomorrow, but for some it may be lost.

So who can trouble Moreno? Poels, 2nd last year was dropped early today so he doesn't look likely to be up there. Pozzovivo finished with Horner and co today but I am still not convinced of his form either, Henao and Uran may like these steep gradients, with Uran looking in better shape than Henao possibly. Gilbert has been mentioned by some as a good bet at 25/1 but I can't see it.. Gilbert of a year ago yes, maybe, but not this year even if he does seem to be riding himself in to much better form. Stybar? Clearly in good form but not sure he has the speed for a sharp one like this after a hard week's racing, he rolled in nearly 19' down today. Betancur, 3rd behind Moreno in La Fleche Wallone is clearly out of sorts, rolling in with Stybar today. Anton gave it a good go today so chances are he will struggle to be at his best tomorrow. 

So as you can see, there are many who may not win it and very few who possibly can - Moreno and Rodriguez are clearly the most likely. Outsiders who may get a look in? Very few - but possibly Bart de Clerq at a big 250/1 with Paddy Power - he's riding well again and was well up there today, Luis Leon Sanchez at 150/1 - to attack on that last climb and fly down the descent, or Nocentini at 150/1 as Betancur is clearly out of GC reckoning, he was 10th in La Fleche.

Moreno to win, Rodriguez top 3 and possibly Gilbert to take 3rd or maybe Roche if he pulls out another ride of his life, inspired to hang on to his red jersey if Moreno goes for it. To whet your appetite, here is last year's finish:

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