Details: Published on Friday, 30 August 2013 22:05

Vuelta Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8 - Jerez de la Frontera to Alto Peñas Blancas (Estepona), 166.6km

What is it going to take for Gilbert to win a race this year?! He did everything right by attacking with 7km to go, only problem was he brought Zdenek Stybar with him, a rider in supreme form and full of confidence following his performance in the Eneco Tour.

They just held off the marauding pack but despite Gilbert being in the better position going in to the last 100m on Stybar's wheel, he lost out by millimetres in a photo finish. Robert Wagner will be having a Hart to Hart with his DS for a pay rise after taking 3rd (sorry.. :-) It was a messy last few kms with tight roads and lots of turns hampering the chase and helping Gilbert and Stybar to stay away. The sprint trains were non-existant and with Farrar off the back after a puncture with 12km to go there were no sprinters any where near the front at the finish. Sinkledam, Matthews and Morkov finished 13th, 14th and 15th, with Meersman in 21st.

stybar gilbert

There was some worrying news this afternoon though that Dan Martin crashed and although he finished the stage just over a minute down on the winners, he has had to go to hospital tonight. Let's hope it is just precautionary and he will be able to continue tomorrow as the race heads back in to the mountains.

Although tomorrow's stage can not be described as a mountainous stage, it has a horrible sting in the tail with the triangular shaped finish up to the summit of the Peñas Blancas. The stage meanders towards the coast, then takes a left and goes along the coast for about 25km to Estepona before starting the climb of the Alto de Peñas Blancas. The climb is not particularly difficult in terms of gradient (there are no 30% sections in this one!) but it is long at nearly 15km.

The first 3kms are the steepest, hitting a max of 12.5%, then it eases back a little for about 3km with even some little downhill bits, but then kicks up for a solid 9km of steady climbing at an average of around 7% all the way to the summit. The stage looks tailor made for an early breakaway which may just last all the way to the climb, maybe with a minute or two's advantage, which will be easily reeled in once the fireworks start.

The bookies have made Valverde the favourite so I guess they are expecting it to come down to a reduced group of the leading favourites and Valverde to take the sprint. This may well be the case as I think there could be a lot of shadow boxing tomorrow with the favourites watching each other. It may be the first chance for the GC contenders to show their hands, but they may well keep something back tomorrow with Sunday's stage also on their minds.

Rodriguez is the 2nd favourite at around 11/2 with Moreno 3rd favourite at 7/1 or so. I'm not sure it will come down to a mini bunch sprint - I think the way the Vuelta has gone so far would suggest we should expect the unexpected! Of the favourites, Nibali has been very quiet and has shunned the Red Jersey at every opportunity so I can't see him skipping off up the road tomorrow unless the others show serious signs of weakness, which isn't likely. Rodriguez has been happy to let Moreno have the limelight so far, biding his time but that time may not have come yet either. Valverde, I am just not sure about yet as he has been almost anonymous, barely seen him all week.

So I am going to look a little further down the odds for some vlaue plays.. First off, if it is some are going for a long one, it could well include Thomas de Gendt at a big 100/1. He hasn't had a great Vuelta so far, but this is the kind of stage he will like I think and with Vacansoleil disappearing he will be looking for opportunities to impress. He is worth a small interest each-way at that price.

Beyond the main favourites I also like the look of Bauke Mollema at 40/1 each way too with William Hill - he has been going very well and his performance on stage 3 after being held up in the crash was excellent, he finished 6th, or 5th in the group after Horner. He could well be left escape near the finish if the Spanish and Horner and co hesitate. A top 3 is possible so 40/1 looks good value to me.

martin bandage Of the little lighter guys, Pozzovivo didn't seem to have the power at the finish of stage 2 when Roche easily took him on the run-in so I am avoiding him. Uran is having a nightmare, so leaving him alone too, but Henao at 20/1 looks a more interesting one. Similar to Mollema he may well be less of an interest to Nibali, Valverde and Rodriguez and he has a sharp kick for the last few kilometres if he fancies it. I also think Nico Roche could have a good day tomorrow, the slopes are not steep enough to trouble him, in fact they are a little like the finish of stage 2, and he looks to be in excellent shape, his little kick to take the point on the Mirador just shows the confidence is flowing through him at the moment. He can possibly do what he did last Sunday, follow the attacks in the last few kms and possibly jump away again. I have backed him at 32s on Betfair, he is best priced 20/1 with William Hill. One I won't be backing though is Daniel Martin after seeing the pictures of him on Twitter tonight, he looked like a Mummy!!

So it will be a fascinating stage tomorrow, to see whether anyone tries to lay down a marker or whether there is just a lot of watching and waiting and someone else steals the show again. Small each ways on Mollema, De Gendt, Henao and Roche.