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Published on Sunday, 01 September 2013 22:05

Vuelta Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10 - Torredelcampo to Güéjar Sierra. Alto Hazallanas, 186.8km

A good winning bet for me today with my headline call Daniel Moreno winning it like I called it, pocketing some nice 7/2 and 4/1 bets on him. In fact, my preview almost landed a 1-2-3 as I called Rodriguez a top 3 finisher and said Roche could well be up there too - only Valverde got in the way!   

I also suggested that Luis Leon Sanchez could take a flyer on the last climb, which he did but was reeled back and recommended Nocentini as a lively outsider at 150/1 - he finished a very impressive 6th ahead of Nibali, Anton, Basso and Horner. Despite a heroic ride again by Roche to finish 4th on the stage he unfortunately finished 8 seconds behind Moreno, and with Moreno getting a 10" bonus for winning he took over as leader by just 1"!

The rest of the stage was pretty boring, with the race well controlled by the peloton as an early five-man breakaway was caught with 30km to go. Edvald Boasson Hagen then took a flyer on the category two climb up the Alto de los Frailes, shooting past Kiserlovski who had been in the earlier breadk, but the Norwegian never built up enough of a lead before the steep climb to the finish in the last kilometer.

The real action started and finished in less than 2 minutes as they climbed the final hill at Valdepenas de Jaen - Basso went to the front but was quicly caught and passed by Moreno who went for it very early.. He was followed by Valverde and Purito but with Purito letting Valverde do the chasing, Moreno was home and dry. Roche battled superbly to almost hang on to the lead but made up some more time on the likes of Nibali and Horner.

Stage 10

Stage 10 is another nasty day's racing for the riders who must surely be feeling the effects of 9 hard stages already in the legs.. In the TdF rest days are on the Mondays, the Spanish organisers seem to want to make them suffer for one more day before letting them have a deserved rest!

The stage starts off lumpy but not too difficult, with a bunch of non categorised hills, but after 150km it becomes downright nasty. First up is the CAt 1 Alto de Monachil, which averages 7.7% and hits a maximum of 15%, but there are several ramps of 10,11, 12% to contend with too. Once over the top of that there is a very fast descent for 10km before they start up the final climb of the day to the summit finish at Alto de Hazallanas.

This climb is another Cat 1 and averages just 5.5% over its 15.8km - but that is deceptive as there is a section in the middle of nearly 4km that flattens out and even descends for a while. The final 7.5km are really hard - it immediately kicks up with some seriously steep parts, hitting 12, 17, 18% and it goes on like that until the final 2km where it eases back slightly to just 7%! Importantly though, the last few hundred metres is a downhill/flat sprint finish - if there is a little group left they will be sprinting for a win. It will be a day when we could see some serious time gaps and some contenders go in to the rest day knowing their Vuelta is probably over for this year. For others, they will go in to the rest day knowing that they are in a good position ahead of this week's TT and will rest a little easier. 

The early rolling profile makes it a perfect day for a breakaway and there will be many trying to get in it knowing the rest mix could see them go all the way if the GC leaders let them go and watch each other on the first climb. They will probably need 3-4 minutes at least starting the final climb though and that's a tall ask. Expect Saxo, Astana and Movistar to put men in the break of the day to make Katusha chase - they will have ambitions of winning tomorrow with either Purito or Moreno. Purito apparently is happy to just take back little bits of time here and there, according to Moreno, so he may well want to try to make tomorrow his day to try to get a little closer to the top of the GC. 

Likely candidates?

Saxo could send Evgeni Petrov or Oliver Zaugg up the road, Astana could send the likes of Fuglsang, Tiralongo or Kangert, Movistar could send Capecchi, Intxausti or Herrada, it all depends on who has been given protection of team leader duties and who has been given the green light to get up the road. Cataldo of Sky could go, as could LL Sanchez, who stretched his legs today unsuccesfully. Geniez, Howes, Hansen, Sarmiento - it really is stick a pin in a page time for who will be in that break. They are all pretty decent prices though so some are worth a few pounds for a bit of fun - I will wait until there is a bit more liquidity on Betfair before picking a few, will update this after I do. 

There are then also a number of scenarios if the break doesn't stay away - an attack from the likes of Henao, Pozzovivo, Konig with 5-7km to stretch things, a late attack from the likes of the Katusha duo or Anton, or even an attack going over the last climb by the likes of Samu Sanchez (who looks to be coming back to much better form after a bad start) - he will tear it down that 10km descent to the start of the last climb and if he has the legs he could stay away. Chances are though it will come down to a reduced peloton sprint, and for me there is only one winner if it does - Valverde. I have been waiting to see when he shows signs of improvement and today, although he let Moreno get the jump that won it, he was super strong in leading the rest home - even Purito couldn't pass him even after getting a pull all the way up the hill from him. The downhill finish is perfect for him and he should take it I think if 8-10 go to the last few hundred together. He is the favourite, at a similar price to Moreno today at only 7/2, but that is not putting me off backing him either. 

So Valverde the headline bet at 7/2 or bigger (looking for some 9/2 on Betfair), I will also be backing S Sanchez and a few more rags at big prices - will update this once I have been matched. 

UPDATE:

Have had the following bets also matched on Betfair:

Samu Sanchez - 42

LL Sanchez - 55

A Hansen - 150

J Fuglsang - 70

Preidler - 205

Barguil - 90

Argos tweeted that Preidler and Barguil were keen to get in the break of the day so had a small bet on both of them.