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Published on Thursday, 02 April 2015 23:55

Tour of Flanders 2015 Preview

Sunday 5th April, 264.9kms

It's Ronde time! But it's a Ronde that sees two of it's greatest stars absent from the start list, two men that have won six out of the last ten runnings of the race. Tom Boonen has been making noises of a possible return for Paris-Roubaix, he is training hard apparently, but the three-time winner is missing this year, and how the rudderless Etixx-QuickStep could do with his head and experience at the moment.. 

Fabian Cancellara is also out of course after cracking vertebrae in his crash in the E3 Harelbeke last week. The reigning champion will be a huge loss to the race - he is always a tremendous catalyst for action and excitement and it was his trademark move of course on the Kwaremont last year that took Sep Vanmarcke with him to go in pursuit of Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh. Can big Sep step up in to Fabian's shoes?  With the absence of the two big men though, it leaves Stijn Devolder as the only previous winner of the race taking to the startline on Sunday morning. 

Fabian Cancellara won last year after putting in his trade-mark dig on the Kwaremont, where only Vanmarcke was able to stay with him (above), before reeling in Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh shortly after the Paterberg and sprinting to victory from the quartet. He also won in commanding style in 2013, first putting the hurt on Sagan on the Kwaremont and then simply riding away from him on the Paterberg. In 2010 he attacked some 44km out on the Mollemberg and only Boonen could stay with him, but again, simply rode away from him too on the Muur Van Gerrard bergen to solo to victory.

It is the 99th edition of the race and it should be a lot more open than in recent years. There are the established cobbled masters like Vanmarcke, Terpstra, Van Avermaet, Sagan, Roelandts, Vandenbergh, Leukemans, Devolder and Thomas but also plenty of pretenders to the throne and outsiders who have been showing good form of late like Kristoff, Degenkolb, Stannard, Boom and Paolini. 

The Route 

The race starts in Bruges again, but the organisers have made a slight alteration to the route this year but only in the opening 100kms. The last 160kms or so are exactly the same with the loops of the Kwaremont and the Paterberg set to be the decisive section of the course again.

They head out of Bruges in broadly the same direction though, heading south past Kortrijk before changing direction and heading generally north-east towards Oudenaarde almost past the finishing line. 

There have been two new climbs added to the route this year, the Tiegemberg which is now the first climb they hit after 87.3kms, it's just 750m long but hits 9%. 25kms later they start up the first passage of the Oude Kwaremont, where the break of the day are sure to be given a rousing reception ahead of the main field. 

They are now on the twisting, criss-crossing loop south-east of Oudenaarde,  where they take in more of the 'Hellingen' or cobbled climbs including the Eikenberg and the Molenberg but these are just appetisers to the main course still to come. They also cross the Berendries, the eight climb of the day, returning to the race after a two year absence due to roadworks. 

After around 200km they start in to the decisive section of the race, starting with the second ascent up the Oude Kwaremont after 210kms, followed just 3km later by the Paterberg.There may be a selection of some sort on the Kwaremont and Paterberg, but it may still be too far out to see any decisive moves from the favourites.

Just 7kms later though we could see the first major moves of the day when they hit the Koppenberg. I rode up this a few years ago the day before the race and there are some key points as to why it can be decisive. First, they come in fast to it on a slightly downhill. Then it's a sharp right turn in to a really narrow funnel. The barriers stick out quite a lot on the road so the width they can pass is only about 4m wide.

My thoughts when I saw it were "this looks like a crash zone" and sure enough in 2012 there was a big crash there. Secondly, the climb is short but steep and rough and it narrows even more the further up it goes - as you can see on the left, it's barely wide enough for a car. And finally, the cobbles are slippy! Even on a dry day my back wheel was slipping as I rode up it. Fortunately, the weather forecast is good for Sunday, with almost no chance of rain according to the long range forecast.. of course that could change come the weekend, but with a north-east wind of just around 13mph it will be a far cry from the hurricance-like conditions at Gent-Wevelgem! It's going to be cold though with a max temperature of only around 9º.

Positioning will be crucial coming in to the Paterberg and it almost always makes a selection of some sort, easing the weaker riders out the back. 

Just 5km later they hit the Steebeekdries and 2km later the Taaienberg, Tom Boonen's hill, or in his absence, Sep Vanmarcke's climb, where we often see a big acceleration in the gutter by one of the stronger men. Last year in fact though it was Greg Van Avermaet who went on the attack and reeled in Vandenbergh who was a little off the front. Next up is the Kruisberg, which is 1km long at 6%. It is dark and quite rough as you can see in the video below I shot last year riding up with little mini Greg Van Avermaet.. 

Then on to the Kwaremont.. It is horrible.  It's not the steepest at 4.2% average but it does go on for 2.2kms and is very rough - there are large ruts and high ridges in the road so if you can't get a clean line you bounce all over the road. It's where we can expect the final selection to take shape - two years ago, Cancellara put the hammer down and rode away from all bar Sagan. Last year, he did the same, taking only Vanmarcke with him and they set off in pursuit of Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh. 

What also makes this section so decisive is that just 3km later, with the lactic acid still burning in their legs from the Kwaremont they face a second ascent of the Paterberg. It may only be 380m long but its 13.7% average gradient rips things apart again, it hits 20% in parts and it's where a lot of riders crack and lose their chances. From the top there's only 13km left to the finish in Oudenaarde and the long, flat finishing straight. 

Contenders and Favourites

You have to start with Sep Vanmarcke when looking at the main Contenders and favourites. He has been close, or at the top of the betting for months now and since the withdrawal of Cancellara he has shortened to clear favouritism around 4/1. 

The only rider who was able to go with Cancellara's surge on the Kwaremont last time up, he finished third after being out-foxed and out-sprinted by Fabs and GVA. He seemed to celebrate third last year with a little fist pump, which was a bit bizarre, seems strange for a pro with his expectations to be content with 3rd place. He was hugely consistent last year without winning anything, and although it is nothing like the pressure Sagan must be feeling right now, the pressure must be on for him to deliver the monument that his ability says he can.

He hadn't done a lot of racing before heading to the Omloop het Nieuwsblad (just a training spin in the Volta a Algarve) but finished 5th just ahead of GVA, three and a half minutes ahead of the peloton. Although he finished 5th I was impressed by him and backed him to win Flanders and Roubaix in an each-way double at 6/1 and 13/2 at the time.

Since then he finished 4th in Strade Bianche, he struggled a little on the hills at the end but rode very powerfully to catch the three leaders as they entered Sienna.. Unfortunately he had nothing left in the tank to be able to go with the faster finishers, but it was impressive nonetheless I thought. A training trip across Italy in T-A was followed by 5th in E3 Harelbeke, just behind Trentin and Kristoff in the sprint. 

Then on Sunday he took 6th place in the bonkers, wind-battered Gent-Wevelgem. After working hard to help the break stay clear and covering lots of attacks he ran out of gas at the end and rolled in 40" down. He said he was very happy with his performance on Sunday though, that he rode a good race in the E3 and still managed to finish 6th in a brutally hard race. He also said "I'm looking forward to Sunday. Some teams will benefit from it a hard day and we'll need to get rid of the fast guys. If you drive to the line with Kristoff, you're beat. We have to make the race exhausting."

I can see him rip it up at the top of the Kwaremont and make a possibly decisive selection in an attempt to shake these 'fast guys' and then push on again on the Paterberg in an attempt to strip it down further.. He'll have to be really strong though to get away and stay away with 13kms of tough racing still to go or it may be that he goes to the finish with a small group of 3 or 4 again.

Geraint Thomas has had a fantastic start to 2015 and it has seen his price tumble from 33/1 in February to just 5/1 generally now. He has looked so strong and so powerful all year. Starting with a respectable 9th on the Hatta Dam finish in the Dubai Tour, he took a 1st, 3rd and 4th in the Volta a Algarve on his way to the overall win at the end of February. A strong showing in Paris-Nice brought him nicely in to the Classics. A strange situation in Milan-San-Remo because of the crash on the descent of the Cipressa meant that, to me at least, Sky made a mess of their tactics, as Luke Rowe burned matches too early and Geraint had to work earlier than he maybe should have. 

Having said that though, he was very impressive when he did go and was only just reeled in at the top of the Poggio thanks to some monster work by Paolini and an attack by Van Avermaet. But then he went to Belgium and has been in sensational form on the cobbles and Hellingen. First he took a fantastic solo victory in the E3 Harelbeke, landing the 14/1 bet for me, leaving Sagan and Stybar behind with a very strong surge 4kms from home. Then just two days later, despite being blown off his bike in to a ditch he rode a fantastic race to finish 3rd in the Epic Gent Wevelgem.

8th last year in Flanders, he was too far back as they came to the top of the Kwaremont, he must have been about 20 places back and was unable to go with the surge by Cancellara and Vanmarcke in the race-winning move. He'll have to watch his positioning this year to make sure the same thing doesn't happen, but he seems to be in far better form than this time last year so you would expect him to be right up at the front this time around. He has finished 41st, 33rd and 10th over the years, so he hasn't a brilliant record in this race. The one problem I can see with Thomas's chances is that the team looks one of the weaker, he could well be isolated come the last 16kms or so, he could be outnumbered by Etixx-QS and BMC. I can't bring myself to back him now at just 13/2 best price, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him make podium. 

With Alexander Kristoff winning for fun these days, his price has continued to fall, from 14/1 earlier in the year to just 6/1 now, although there is 8/1 available with Paddy Power. He has been in brilliant form, almost winning Milan-San-Remo and winning three stages in a row and the overall in the Three days of de Panne this week. He seems to be turning in to the complete rider, he attacked and bridged to the break in stage one, won the sprint and the next two and then time trialled brilliantly to 3rd place in the afternoon to seal the overall victory. It'll be interesting to see if his efforts this week will impact his perfromance on Sunday, he made it look all too easy this week though. 

Last year he went after the leaders on his own, attacking the Sagan group on the Paterberg in very impressive fashion. He almost caught the leading quartet and was dangling in the background for a long time, but just couldn't get there with the power of Cancellara and Vanmarcke and Van Avermaet up front. He eventually finished just 5" down in 5th. He certainly showed though that he is capable of a big performance in this race, and with Cancellara missing this year, the attacks on the Kwaremont mightn't be so vicious and he might hang in there for longer. I have a feeling though that he might be left behind on the Paterberg this year if some big attacks come from the likes of Vanmarcke, Thomas and Van Avermaet, there is no way they will want to tow him to the finish. As Sep said, if you take him to the finish, you're beat! 

Peter Sagan - what can you make of his chances? On paper, and going on the Peter Sagan of old, he should be capable of winning this. But Sagan has been a major disappointment this year and his team is in disarray following the sacking of Riis. He was unable to go with the best last year, he was unable to go with Thomas in the E3 and couldn't go with the race winning move in G-W. I think it will be the same Sunday and he'll be tailed off on the Kwaremont and will roll home in 5th to 10th place at best. The 8/1 on him doesn't appeal in the slightest. 

Zdenek Stybar is having a good season and was a very impressive winner of the Strade at 10/1 a month ago. He was also very impressive in the E3, where a tactical error in thinking Sagan was the man to watch maybe cost him the race. He finished 18th last year, in the Sagan and Degenkolb group, 1'25" behind the winners. He was fighting to stay with the leaders on the Kwaremont but was losing the wheels and struggled a little too on the Paterberg, but he looks stronger and fitter this year and could well stay with a lead group this time around. 8/1 will find some takers each-way I think, especially after his strong performance in the E3, but I'm thinking 5th to 10th again for him. 

Greg Van Avermaet was sensational last year, attacking, pushing, leading for a long time, then having the strength to stay with Cance and Sep when they came through. His sprint (and possibly tactical positioning in the sprint) let him down last year, but he still finished 2nd, and there is no question that he will be a key player this year again.

He has been in superb form this season and took a brilliant win in Arezzo in Tirreno, denying Peter Sagan in a stage that was made for him.. He crashed spectacularly in the E3, going over the handlebars and was still recovering when riding Gent-Wevelgem, but still finished 36th of the only 39 riders that finished. 2nd last year, 7th in 2013, 4th in 2012, 22nd in 2011. 

I think he will be there or there abouts in the top 5 this year, very possibly the top 3 again and I took the 10/1 with Paddy Power last weekend, they are paying four places on the race. He has a very strong team with him again, with Jempy Drucker, Quinziato, Oss, Dillier and Burghardt to help keep him in the right places long enough to give him a chance to attack. 

Daniel Oss is one to watch in particular, he has been very powerful this year. He did a great ride in Milan San Remo with Thomas, he also finished 18th in Strade Bianche, 10th in the E3 and 8th in the wild Gent-Wevelgem. He missed these races last year as he was injured, but the year before he took a 3rd place in the E3 and 12th in the Ronde. In this year's E3 he was just a little too far back when Thomas accelerated and missed the move. He could well be sent up the road by BMC early on again in order to soften up the peloton and give GVA an easy ride, and if he can stay out there for long enough, he could do a Roelandts in 2013 and get in the mix on the run in to the finish. He could be a wild card at 50/1.

Niki Terpstra is the second favourite behind Stybar in the supremely strong Etixx-QuickStep team - can they get the tactics right this time? This team has a fantastic record in this race, as this great piece by Inrng testifies - 8 wins since 1994 and regular domination of the front of the race. 6th in 2014 and 2012 are the best results here for the former winner of Paris-Roubaix, but he has been in superb form this year, right from the season opening Tour of Qatar which he won in Flanders-like windy conditions.

He has since finished second to Stannard in the Omloop, when E-QS totally ballsed up an almost certain win with three men in the break of four against Yogi. He then helped demolish the field in the Zeeland Seaports race, when they let Keisse win in a 1-2-3 for E-QS. He rode very well also in the winds of Gent-Wevelgem, where again, poor tactics saw him let Paolini go, when he really should have won the race. He easily dispatched the rest in the run to the line, outsprinting Thomas and leaving Vanmarcke behind. He looked very strong that day and he is sure to be one of the strongest come Sunday again.

He couldn't stay with Cance and Sep last year though on the Kwaremont, will he fare better this year? He has a big chance I think of going close this year again and is well capable of a top 6 finish. If you're a fan, I can't put you off backing him - he's 10/1 with 3-place bookies or 8/1 with 4-place bookies if you want that extra place security.  

John Degenkolb also rode well last year, finishing 15th, leading home the Sagan group. He has also been in great form of late, winning Milan-San-Remo with a brilliant sprint, after looking extremely comfortable on the climbs that day. He has had a fair share of bad luck in his last two races over the Belgian hills, crashing twice in the E3 and in G-W he said that he was still scared to crash again and rode a lot in the wind to stay clear of danger. He also punctured at the bottom of the Kemmelberg and that was the end of his race.

As I pointed out for the E3 preview though, he stayed with Thomas and Terpstra last year when they attacked on the Kwaremont, so although he is a sprinter, he is well capable of riding with the best over the Hellingen too. And if he gets to the finish with a small group, like he did in Paris-Roubaix last year, he will be very hard to beat. He is one to watch in-play, if he is still there as they crest the Paterbery with 13kms or so to go, he has a huge chance of winning. 

Etixx-QS also have some superb back-up candidates in the likes of Stijn Vandenbergh (left), Matteo Trentin, Lampaert, Van Keirsbulck and Keisse. Vandebergh is a diesel engine, but he doesn't look the sharpest tool in the box, and I cannot see a situation where he wins, even if he is in a final selection of 3 or 4 again. Trentin will need to come to the finish with a group and outsprint the likes of Kristoff or Degenkolb, which is a big ask. The others are really long shots though given the superior power of their team-mates. 

Jurgen Roelandts comes in to the reckoning too after his superb performance in the wind in G-W. I picked him out for the E3 at 66/1, he only went on the attack in the next race when I wasn't on of course! 7th in G-W, despite being out on his own for a very long time, 7th in E3 and 11th in MSR, he has been going well in the last few weeks. He crashed out in 2014, but in 2013 he finished in 3rd place, after being out on the attack for a long time too, only cracking when Cancellara put the hammer down on the Paterberg after catching him with 16kms to go. He too has fallen in price this week as a result, in to as short as 18/1 but there is 40/1 available with Corals and he could go close again - watch for early agressive attacks from him, but he could be reeled in near the finish. 

One rider I will be cheering again though, and I have made no secret of this in the last few weeks is Stijn Devolder. I pointed him out at 150/1 when I did my Dwars door Vlanderen preview on the 24th March. Since then, the withdrawal of Cancellara elevated him to team leader for the Ronde, and it seems to have lifted his confidence and performance level as he rode brilliantly in the first stage of 3DDP, and only for Kristoff getting in the break, he'd have won the race at the 150/1 I backed him for that too... 

The two-time winner of this race has tumbled in price this week though as a result and he is now around 40/1 average, is as low as 20/1 but as high as 50/1 with Bet365 still. The 40/1 with Paddy Power, paying 4 places might be still worth taking - he seems to be in good form and loves the Ronde. I was on last year at 250/1 but he crashed twice in the race (but still finished) and I think he will go well this weekend and give us a good run for our money, I hope some of you got on too. That's him passing us on his own on the Kwaremont last year on the right, chasing for all his might to get back on..

Lars Boom, Ian Stannard, Sylvain Chavanel, three more riders, who on their day could be involved at the finish but I think all three are going to struggle to make the final selection.. Boom probably has the best chance but he is probably more suited to Paris-Roubaix's flatter course, we saw in the TDF last year how well he rides there. 

Quickly going through some of the other teams: Trek could also see Stuyven go well but I can't see any of the others being there the last time up the Kwaremont. AG2R might see Vansummeren near the front for a while, but not late in the race, Damien Gaudin came 5th in Paris-Roubaix two years ago but that seems to be a huge anomaly in generally pretty mediocre palmarés in recent years. 

Astana have Boom, but Grivko, Bozic and Lutsenko are capable of decent rides. FDJ will be looking to Offredo, Ladagnous and Démare to try to hang in there for as long as possible but if Démare is their best hope, he proved yet again this week that he is just not good enough at the moment. IAM will have Chavanel, Haussler and Elmiger near the front a lot, but I can't see them being there on the Paterberg when the race winning selection is decided. Lampre-Merida haven't a hope I think, same goes for Androni. 

Lotto-Soudal have Roelandts, but also have strength in depth with Debusschere, Sieberg, Bak and their new stars who performed well in the last few weeks, Sean de Bie and Tiesj Benoot. This is a different level altogether though so if they are still there at the finish it will be a big surprise (and delight) to the Belgian fans. There was talks Valverde was going to ride, which would have been interesting, but he doesn't seem to be now. That was about the only chance of us seeing a Movistar rider prominently on Sunday I think.. 

Orica-GreenEdge have a good few diesels that could stay in there for quite a while but their best chance of having someone possibly involved at the finish is Jens Keukeleire, but I can't see it happening. Cannonarmin will look to a fit looking Jack Bauer, Dylan Van Barle and the old diesel, Alan Marangoni, Jack Bauer might be their best bet but he'll struggle in the latter stages too, but if you're looking for a long shot at huge odds, maybe have a pound each-way at 350/1! 

Cofidis have the 21 year old Florian Senechal and I tipped him up last year at 500/1. Winner of the junior Paris-Roubaix, this kid has been putting in some really decent performances but still flies under the radar. 24th in the Omloop this year and a pretty decent 19th in Gent-Wevelgem, he could be involved as they hit the final sections, and is a massive 400/1. Yeah, it's a long shot, but at that price, have to have an interest. 

Topsport, Roompot and Wanty are sure to have men in the early break on home roads but their best chances between them are probably Edward Theuns and Bjorn Leukemans. Theuns has been in brilliant form of late, finishing second to his team-mate Wallays in the Dwars door Vlanderen which used a lot of the roads and Hellingen of the Ronde, including the Taaienberg, Kwaremont and the Paterberg. 11th in Gent-Wevelgem, 14th in the Omloop and KBK, 5th in the Zeeland Seaports and winner of the Albert Achterhes Pet Ronde van Drenthe two weeks ago, he clearly is in great shape. He is 100/1 and that could offer a bit of value, he could sneak in under the radar again and could well be involved in the finish. He showed in the Dwars that he has a decent kick on him when he sprinted away from the others to make it a Topsport 1-2. 

So - decision time and summary time. The way I see it panning out is a little similar to last year - lots of early attacking, more attacking as they hit the Kwaremont circuits, with support riders from the favourites teams being sent up the road to offer help later on and it all coming down to the Taiienberg to start the final selection process, the Kwaremont thinning it out even further and the Paterberg deciding who is in the race deciding move. There will be a head-wind all the way to the finish after the Paterberg though so it could aid chasers behind a lone rider or very small chase group. 

I think though that Terpstra, Vanmarcke, Thomas and Van Avermaet hold the key to the race, with Stybar, Sagan, Kristoff, Degenkolb, Devolder, Vandenbergh and Roelandts the next best. It all depends on just how many Vanmarcke can shift from his wheel on the Kwaremont and then attack again on the Paterberg, a-la Cancellara - he has the blueprint on how to win on this course, but can he deliver? I'm sticking with him and I think he and Thomas could well detach themselves off the front and they will be a very formidable duo to try to catch. If they go to the finish together, Vanmarcke should take the sprint. 

Van Avermaet is capable of a big race too, as long as he has recovered enough from his crash and if there is a slightly larger group comes to the finish it will be hard to see past Kristoff and Degenkolb. I'm hoping Devolder goes on the attack to give us a bit of excitement for our money, but I honestly just hope he stays upright this year and is in contention on the final parts. I'm going to go Vanmarcke from Thomas, with Terpstra and Van Avermaet not far behind with maybe Devolder and Roelandts, then Sagan, Kristoff, Degenkolb, Leukemans, Stybar and Vandenbergh making part of a small group that comes in next!

I'm going to be on the Kwaremont on Sunday, watch out for me...! I'll also try to send updates from the course and maybe some in-play bets, internet signal dependent.. it was pretty awful last year.. Let's hope for a great race and a worthy heir to Cancellara's throne. 

Recommendations/bets placed:

2pts ew double on Vanmarcke to win Flanders (6/1) and Roubaix (13/2) - win both returns 57.2pts profit, place in both returns 4.56pts profit. Take the 5/1 each-way that's still available, he should be in first 3. 

1pt each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 10/1 with PP

0.4pts each-way at 150/1 on Stijn Devolder with PP, take the 40/1 with Betfred who is paying 4 places

0.2pts each-way on Florian Senechal at 400/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way at 100/1 on Edward Theuns with Bet365

I may add some top 3 bets here when the prices are out, I don't think anyone is offering top 3 prices yet..  

Matchbets

Van Avermaet to beat Stybar - 2pts at evens with PP

Drucker to beat Lobato - 3pts at 8/13 with PP

Vandenbergh to beat Stannard (8/13), Drucker to beat Lobato (8/13) and Kristoff to beat Sagan (8/15) - 2pts on the Treble at 3/1 with PP

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