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Published on Saturday, 29 September 2018 21:36

2018 World's Road Race

30th Sept, 258.5kms

The unstoppable Peter Sagan made it an astonishing hat-trick of wins with an amazing victory in Bergen last year, hanging in there over the final climb and winning the sprint from a reduced group of 26 riders. 

Sagan joined an elite club of riders who have won the Road Race three times, but not even the great Eddie Merckx won it three times in a row. It was a farcical end to the World's premier event though as the TV pictures cut out with Alaphilippe solo inside the last 3kms and we had no idea what was going on until suddenly pictures burst back in to life with 1200m to go. Alaphilippe had been swallowed up, Soren Kragh Andersen had a small gap, but the sprinters were bearing down on him and he was caught with just under 500m to go.

Alex Kristoff took it up a long way out but Sagan was lurking menacingly in his slipstream, more or less the first sighting we had seen of him all race.. Try as he might, the home favourite could not repel Sagan and he won it with a lunge of the bike on the line.  Michael Matthews paid out on the each-way for us at 14/1 with a 3rd place finish, with Matteo Trentin, our other selection in 4th, if you'd backed him with the bookies paying four places you'd have been paid out on him too around 16/1. 

We had a good race last year on a tiring course that saw lots of attacking late on - Julian Alaphilippe was one of the most active, he attacked on the hill with over 11kms to go, riding off the front, but seemingly not quite going full gas at first, like he was just feeling it out.. then he went for it. Gilbert chased with Gianni Moscon and Nikki Terpstra, Moscon rode away from them and bridged to Alaphilippe with 10kms to go.

A second group of four with Barguil and Ulissi tried to bridge, Vasil Kiryienka tried to bridge and with 5kms to go they only had a 6" lead as they headed towards the hill for the last time. Suddenly, the camera cut back and Alaphilippe had ridden away from Moscon with 4.2kms to go.. And that was the last we saw of Alaphilippe - there were some grainy, cracking helicopter images of the peloton for a few seconds, and with 3.2kms to go we were left watching a crowd scene with about 800m to go and motorbikes racing up the road.

Hopefully we won't have any of that nonsense this year, the last 25kms will be good, the last 10kms will be where it will all explode and the winner will probably make his move on the Holl climb that tops out with just 8kms to go, 6km of which are a descent.

The Route

A course that can be broken down in to 3 parts.. An opening, introductory section for 85kms that rolls south-east from Kufstein, along some roads that will be familiar from the time trials. It's pretty flat for most of the way, but there are some hills in the opening 30kms that will help establish a break. Those interested in getting up the road early will look to break away on the section from Schwoich to Bad Haumlring.

From the village of Langkampfen the route leads to Maria Stein, a popular place of pilgrimage. The following Angerberg climb should not be underestimated and will sap the riders strength. They then roll along the valley roads until they turn right at Pill, cross the Inn river and the A12 and head up the side of the moutain. They tackle the climb to Gnadenwald, a tough little hill hitting 14% gradients in parts. They then start to descend down the fast roads towards Inssbruck that are again familiar from the ITTs. 

It's when it enters Innsbruck that it gets interesting. They start out on a 'small lap' circuit of 23.8kms that they do six times, taking it up to 227kms, already a pretty sizeable distance to have covered. The 'small lap' profile (right) shows that they have 2kms of flat leading in to the climb before the climb starts as they pass the Ambras Castle. 

It's a 7.9km ascent with a maximum gradient of 10% passing through the villages of Aldrans and Lans on the way to the bottom of the Patscherkofel cable car. After cresting the climb near the bottom station of the Patscherkofel cable car, riders turn right and descend at high speed through the villages of Igls and Vill and into the centre of the city. 

With 31kms to go they start on the final lap of the circuit, but this time, it's a longer circuit that takes them up over the short lap climb again and down the other side and after completing the seventh and final lap head back into the city but don't turn right as usual into the Riedgasse road, instead heading left up towards the Hottinger Holl climb.

The entrance to the climb is very narrow, through two blocks of buildings barely wide enough for one car to pass through, so there will be a real battle just to be at the front entering the climb, it's where team-mates will make a big difference to their leaders' chances.

This should be the section of the course where the race will be decided: a short but sharp 3.2km climb with an average gradient of 11.5% and a maximum gradient of 28%, on very narrow roads. From the top of the climb the riders speed down a fast and technical descent to the finish line in front of the Hofburg imperial palace in the centre of the city, with the last 2kms being almost totally flat, meaning it could come down to who has the best sprint from a small group, if we've not got a solo winner clear of everyone. 

Contenders and Favourites

SAGAN

We probably should start with Sagan, but I'm going to start by saying that he won't win this year and not dwell on him for too long.. The main climb they do six times is already tough for him, but the last time up they will be absolutely flying up it, with team's domestiques hammering it at the front in order to shed as many guys as possible, especially the likes of Sagan who they won't want to bring to the line.

And then there's the Holl hill - I can't see him staying with the leaders when they go full gas up here - 2.8kms at 11.5% will be too much for him, the 700m at 13.8% will probably be the point we see him go out the back (if he's still there at that point). 5/1 two years ago, 9/4 last year, 40/1 this year - that says it all.. he's only 40/1 because he's Sagan..

So how's it going to play out then, how will the race be won? We'll obviously get the break go, expect Conor Dunne in it to put on a show in his last race of the year, possibly, incredibly, sadly his last pro race ever unless some team comes in and picks him up. There will be 5 or 6 other guys with them and they'll build up an 8 or 9 minute lead by the time they hit the final circuit.

Then slowly but surely they'll be reeled in, until the final catch will be made with possibly 50kms or so to go, the peloton will be getting faster and faster each time up the Ingls climb, they will possibly catch the break on the second last ascent as the pace will be really high at this stage. Then on to the final circuit, possibly with maybe 100 guys still in contention, so the domestiques for France, Spain, Italy and GB will have a job on their hands the final time up the Ingls climb to set a furious pace to try to shake out as many guys as possible, the ideal scenario would be to come to that narrow entrance and the Holl climb with maybe less than 50 guys in contention.

They will of course have to keep some men in reserve to help pace their men up the climb if they struggle a little, or to help chase back on in the last 8kms if they are just slightly off the leaders. But that climb is going to be a little bit of every man for himself, the gradients are so steep that drafting will have less of an effect, and if you get caught behind the wrong wheels or a team-mate who is fading you could suddenly find yourself with a gap to try to close, a gap that might be unbridgeable.

And as there are just 8kms to go once over the top, 6kms of descending, I think that if you are even 10" behind the leaders, who will inevitably be the strongest riders in the race, it's going to be a very big ask to try to close them down as they charge to the finish. So the Holl climb, with its 11.5% gradients will sort out our winner, be it a solo rider or two or a small group of 6 or 7 a few seconds apart that get back together.

So to win, you need to have a strong team to look after you up until the main event. You need to be positioned well coming in to the 'Gates to Hell' and then be one of the punchiest riders over steep gradients at the end of a 250km race. And powerful enough still to be able to hold off the pursuers if solo, or strong enough to win from a reduced group sprint at the finish.

SPAIN

The favourite for months now has been Alejandro Valverde, he seems to tick most of the boxes. Strong team, great at positioning, winner of multiple Fleche-Wallone's on the Mur de Huy on gradients like this, multiple winner of LBL with that uphill finish after 258.5kms (same distance as this race) and one of the best sprinters in a reduced group of climbers. He has been winning races all season again, even at the ripe old age of 38.

7 wins, including two at the recent Vuelta, countless top tens, green jersey at the Vuelta.. But... he didn't win F-W this year, was easily outgunned by Alaphilippe, and didn't win LBL, or even come close to winning it, he was down in 13th, 14" behind Woods in 2nd place. And he looked very tired at the end of the Vuelta, slipping from 2nd to 5th on the penultimate stage.

He has a very strong Spanish team here with him, with Jonathan Castroviejo, DDLC, Mikel Nieve, Enric Mas, Omar Fraile, Jesus Herrada and Ion Izagirre, but he really does represent their best hope you'd have to think, as he will be right up there on the final climb and can win from a sprint. But can he stay with the fastest, punchiest guys on that final climb, after a long season and an exhausting Vuelta? 

Enric Mas though was sensational in finishing 2nd in the Vuelta, he showed he can climb with the best of them, but his record in one day races is very poor (DNF FW, AG and 81st in LBL). Omar Fraile could well be one to go up the road early so Spain don't have to work, but to have the likes of Izagirre, Herrada, DDLC and Nieve working for you is a luxury other teams could only dream of.

One small point to note, it probably won't mean much, but Iberia apparently delayed the flight for some of the riders trying to get from Granada to Madrid, and as a result they missed their connecting flight to Munich.. Jesus Herrada tweeted it Friday morning, not an ideal start to the weekend!

FRANCE

France bring a really strong team here too, with one of the leading favourites Julian Alaphilippe top of the pile. Alaphilippe has been in spectacular form all season, winning Fleche-Wallone with aplomb, finally getting his nose in front after several near misses. Nine wins this season, including a devestating performance in San Sebastian, a TDF stage win and also GC wins in the TOB and Slovenia. 

He looks the complete rider - he won FW because of his punchy, explosive power, he won the KOM competition in the TDF because he has developed himself in to an incredibel all-round climber with an eye for an opportunity. He almost pulled off a win last year, when the pictures disappeared it looked like he might be riding away with the win after a powerful attack on the final hill, but he was reeled in unbeknownst to the whole world watching. 

He comes here in great form too after winning back-to-back stage races in the TOB and Slovenia, has a superb team behind him, and right now, looks the rider most likely to ride away from everyone on the Hol climb. He is a fantastic descender also, so if he gets 10-15" or more over a raggle-taggle bunch who argue about chasing, they may not catch him. Valverde in particular could be one that shakes his head when asked to take a pull, as usual, so it could be up to others to do the chasing. And then they won't want to bring Valverde to the line either. 

That French team is seriously strong - Thibaut Pinot was in great form in the Vuelta and will string things out, possibly leading him in to the foot of the final climb. Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil will also go well and should be involved in the last lap skirmishes, both could try attacking on the final time up the Ingls climb in order to cause some chaos and save France from having to chase.

And Anthony Roux, Alexandre Geniez, Tony Gallopin, and Rudy Molard are all quality riders who will be a huge help to him all through the race. Gallopin is one who could also try a late attack on the Ingls to try to get away and make the other countries have to chase so Alaphilippe has an armchair ride. 

And then we have the two Yates's's's. Simon Yates is of course flying at the moment, coming here on the back of a stunning victory in the Vuelta. Calm, strong, confident, assured, measured.. These traits saw him through the third week in style, unlike his collapse in the Giro. He tends to sit out the back quite a lot until things get busy, let's hope he stays out of trouble and avoids the likely crashes in a big, nervous peloton like this. 

Once things get serious though, he does know how to move through the pack and is generally good at positioning himself in the right place to make or cover the key moves. You can he sure he'll be dragged in to the bottom of the Holl at or near the front of the peloton and will be one of the first 10 as the race explodes. He is also one that can ride away from everybody else on gradients like these, although he would have liked them a few degrees lower I'm pretty sure. And we know he can descend well, he's proven that over the years too.  

His biggest rival could well be his brother Adam! Adam Yates rode in to form in the Vuelta, to the point where he was right beside him for the key moments late in the race to help him. He started slowly, but that was the plan, and he was going really well towards the end, lending some observers to think that he might be peaking right on time for the World's. 5th in Tirreno, 4th in California, 2nd in the Dauphiné, he's had a pretty decent season so far. 

That 2nd in the Dauphiné was thanks to a fantastic win on the final stage to St Gervais Mont Blanc, when he attacked away in the last 2kms to go in pursuit of Daniel Navarro on the 9-10% gradients and flew past him in the last 50m to take the stage. The acceleration and smoothness of his attack that day was very impressive, but it was on a very short stage of just 136kms, can he do something similar on a course almost twice as long?

Besides the two Yates brothers, GB doesn't really offer anyone else capable of winning with no Froome or Thomas on the starting line, in fact, the next GB rider in the betting is Hugh Carthy and he's 425/1.. So it's a strong team of domestiques, but I can't see many of them being near the Yates's on the final climb, it will be brothers in arms on their own I think.  

ITALY

Italy have an interesting team here, in that the favourite from that team has flipped from being Vincenzo Nibali a few weeks back to Gianni Moscon. I don't really know why Nibali was just 14/1 a few weeks back when he had such an awful Vuelta, on that performance, if he wasn't Vincenzo Nibali, he would not have been selected for the team. 

He was one I was happy to avoid and ignore for this race, I think he would have had to show me something over the three weeks of the Vuelta to suggest he might find a performance that could win this. But he showed nothing, some half-hearted attempts that got nowhere, then he was out the back door. Yes, it could well have been one giant, three-week training ride and all part of a grand master plan, but I'm not convinced. But, if on the chance that he does come here in top shape, then he will be a danger. He has come and reconned the final climb months ago, describing it as 'brutal' and if he can hang in there with the goats over the top he could well ride away from them on the descent like he did in MSR. 

Gianni Moscon though.. like him or loathe him, he comes here with much better form, smashing his way through the Italian one-day races in the build-up to this, winning Coppa Agostini and Giro Della Toscana and finishing 3rd in Coppa Sabatini. They were his first races back after a two month 'break' after getting disqualified in the TDF. Confidence is very high, so much so that even Vincenzo Nibali is saying that Moscon is ready to step up to a leader's role in the race. Bluffing? Maybe not.. He was on the attack with Alaphilippe in the last 10kms last year, but faded and couldn't stay with him on the hill, and I think he will struggle on the final hill here too, I think it's too steep for him. 

The Italian team is full of quality as you'd expect, and they have outside chances with the likes of Brambilla, Caruso, Cataldo and De Marchi, but one I like as a sneaky outsider is Domenico Pozzovivo. The little man said in Gazzetta dello Sport: "I'm in the best shape of my life. I've just beat my personal record, I did a climb of 20 minutes at 390 watts, so 6.6-6.7 w/kg."

He'll probably be there near the front hitting the Hol climb and someone as small and light as him, pushing 6.6 w/kg will fly up that climb, and could well be one to get away in a very small group over the top. He might not win a sprint, but he could well finish in the first 4, and as Skybet are offering 4 places he's worth a nibble at 66/1 e/w I think. 

COLOMBIA

Colombia come here with several riders that look perfect for a hilly course like this with Miguel Angel Lopez, Nairo Quintana and Rigo Uran three strong candidates. All three did the Vuelta, with mixed success, Uran and Quintana started ok but seemed to end it very fatigued and unable to go with the key moves, Lopez at least kept his form and rode himself on to the podium with a very strong ride in the penultimate stage, finishing 2nd to Enric Mas. 

Their support will come from Sergio Henao, Daniel Martinez and Winner Anacona, not a bad trio of domestiques to have on hand for a hilly course like this, they will do plenty of pulling for their leaders. You'd have to think though that Lopez represents their best chance in terms of ability and form, but his record in one day races is very poor and doesn't go great over longer distances either.

Rigoberto Uran offers a great deal of experience, stamina and race cunning though and he could well be right up there coming to the key point of the race on the Holl, not sure he'll be able to stay with the fastest guys though, but he might not be far behind and could rejoin them on the way to the finish. 

5th favourite in the betting is Primoz Roglic, and on paper he looks like someone who should go well on a course like this. He's in great form, almost winning the Tour of Britain recently, and finishing 4th in the TDF with a stage win in the bag too. But.. he was dropped by Alaphilippe on Whinlatter Pass and slipped out of the lead.

I also spoke with one of his team-mates in London recently and when I asked him whether he thought Primoz would win, he said 'No'. He reckons the final hill is too steep and hard for Roglic, that he prefers longer and easier gradients, something we see on the road in his performances too I guess. But I guess if that's the opinion from within the camp, he knows his limitations and isn't setting unrealistic expectations.

Hard to see any of the other Slovenians winning it, but if Matej Mohoric can hang in there he could try something on the descent.. big ask though to be there at the finish. 

POLAND

Former World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski said this week that he enters every race looking for a way to win it and thinks that he has a slim chance of being involved on Sunday afternoon too. He should be comfortable enough for most of the race, the question is will he be able to hang on to the coat-tails of the goats up the Hol climb. He has some strong team-mates with him, particularly Rafal Majka who is perfectly suited to the Ingls climb on the short laps and can drill a pace up there to strip out some weaker guys.

Maciej Bodnar, Maciej Paterski and Michael Golas are also strong and will be valuable to him in trying to get him to the bottom of the Holl climb at the front of the pack. But what happens then? He will be close I think, I can't see him being far off, but I can't see him staying right at the front, these gradients are a bit too much for him, he was miles off in FW, LBL and AG this year. Plus, he's had a really tough season and he hasn't really had any break in months, going from the Tour, to Poland and on to the Vuelta, I think fatigue will get the better of him.

HOLLAND 

The Dutch have a very strong squad, if it wasn't for that pesky hill at the end. Wout Poels though is one who could go very well for them, he is a former winner of LBL and recently won that stage in the TOB to Whinlatter Pass, beating Alaphilippe in the process. Extremely light and powerful, very experienced and well able to read a race, Poels could be in contention hitting the last hill too. 

But it's a team of hopefuls that are here with him, I'm not sure how much unity and team-work there will be, it could be a lot of riders all riding for their own chances. Bauke Mollema comes here in great form off the back of a strong Vuelta, he will either have great legs after a little break, or he'll be feeling the effects of being on the attack on nearly every single stage. We know how well he rides one day races with a steep hill 10kms from the finish, after his multiple podiums in San Sebastian..

Tom Dumoulin will probably be having fun, stretching things out, but that final hill be too much for him, same maybe for Steven Kruijswijk, Wilko Kelderman and Sam Oomen. Their only chance maybe of getting one of these guys to win it is for them to get in a break before the final climb and then try to hold on to the gap over the final climb - Kelderman or Mollema could try something like that. But it's hard to see any of them winning it, Poels is indeed their best chance, but 22/1 is just too short. 

IRELAND

Dan Martin represents Ireland's best hope of success here, and he would be one that ordinarily I would be very, very keen on. He is perfectly suited to this finish, as we saw with his attack on the Mur de Bretagne in the TDF when he won his stage. He has been in good form this year and was getting better as the year went on, but his Vuelta was interrupted by the fact his wife was on the brink of giving birth to twin girls. 

And that is something that is a slight concern with regards to his form - his wife gave birth two weeks ago, how much training and rest has he had in the interim?! A new born baby is hard work and very tiring, two is twice as bad! But if he has managed to get some good training spins in and has kept a good level of fitness he could be a big player here. He is the sort of guy that will be able to go with the likes of Alaphilippe, Pozzovivo and the punchy goats, and has a good kick on him in a reduced sprint. 

CANADA

Michael Woods is another who could like this finish, he is light and punchy, but his positioning and race smarts are pretty poor generally, I wouldn't be surprised to see him out of the running before things get serious. 

DENMARK

Jacob Fuglsang leads the Danish charge, but unless he gets away early with a strong break and hangs on ahead of the chasers over the Hol, then he won't be winning. 

BELGIUM

Tim Wellens and Dylan Teuns represent Belgium's best chances, they have a strong team here, but none of them really would be a superb puncheur to rival the likes of Alaphilippe or Martin. Wellens will be involved in the late skirmishes for sure though, I wouldn't be surprised to see him try an attack on the last time up the Ingls climb and try to get an advantage over the others coming to the base of the Hol. But they won't be far behind and it will be hard to hold off the chasers. 

Dylan Teuns was in great shape in the Vuelta, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th and 5th in stages, but he struggled on the really steep climbs like when failing to go with Oscar Rodriguez on La Camperona. He too could be one to try an earlier move, if he can get away with one or two others and hit the final climb with 20-30" he might be able to stay away. But I'm not backing either of them. 

LUXEMBOURG

Bob Jungels surprised the climbers in LBL this year, jumping away during a lull in the action at the front of the peloton in the closing stages and holding on bravely up the final climb. It was a major surprise at the time, but Jungels is a quality rider who has continued in great form (like all the QSF team) for the rest of the season, but really, can we see him doing something like he did in LBL? I don't think so, he'll struggle to even stay with the best climbers last time up the Ingls. 

AUSTRIA

And finally, I'd like to talk about the home riders - Austria have a surprisingly strong team here, and could pull off a surprise. Home knowledge has already been shown to be a huge advantage, with Laura Stigger winning the Junior Women's race. Georg Preidler, Gregor Muhlberger, Lukas Postlberger, Felix Grossschartner and Michael Gogl are all very strong and will be spurred on by the home crowd, but the man I'm putting my faith in is Patrick Konrad. 

Konrad finished 10th in Fleche-Wallone this year, showing he can kick up a steep gradient at the end of a hard day's racing. He also finished 6th in that tough uphill finish to Osimo in the Giro won by Simon Yates, that had 500m at 12.4%, hitting 16% in parts. He warmed up for this with a 5th and 9th place in Canada and I think he could be a real dark horse to be involved in the finish here.

At 65kgs he is nice and light for that final hill and he has the power to stay close to the leaders. The power of the home crowd will help him find a few extra watts to get up to the leaders, and if he gets to the finish in a small group he definitely has a chance of a place. At 100/1 with Skybet paying 4 places, he could give us some excitement in the closing stages. 

And that's about it, we don't really see too many surprise winners in the World's although three Sagan wins in a row was definitely something we didn't see coming four years ago. It is a very hard race to predict, as it ought to be, as it is the World Championships, but I think that final hill will sort the winners from the losers. And I think it is very hard to look past Julian Alaphilippe to skip away from them all.

If you want to see why I think he will do this, take a look at this video of him below training this week, a 40 second effort at over 30kms an hour uphill.. if he does that Sunday, not many will be able to stay with him..

https://twitter.com/LeGruppetto/status/1045582752974852096

But Valverde, Pozzovivo, Martin, the Yates's, Kwiatkowski, Poels and Uran could also be close, and I'm hoping Patrick Konrad too to pull off a major surprise for the locals.. 

Recommendations

3pts win on Julian Alaphilippe at 5/1 with Betfair or Ladbrokes

0.5pt each-way on Domenico Pozzovivo at 66/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Patrick Konrad at 100/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts each-way on Dan Martin at 40/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Alaphilippe to beat Valverde - 2pts at evens

Konrad to beat Costa and Pozzovivo to beat Henoa - 2pts at 5/4

Kwiatkowski to beat Moscon - 1.8pts at 5/6

Kreuziger to beat Zakarin and Lopez to beat Quintana - 2pts at 1.7/1