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Published on Saturday, 09 September 2017 21:28

Vuelta Stage 21

Las Rozas to Madrid

Sat 11th Sept, 104.8kms 

So on to the final stage, the traditional end of Grand Tour parade, with a short stage to Madrid and a likely sprint finish. It brings an end to what has been a pretty good Vuelta overall for us, with some good winners along the way. 

Froome has landed the win for us at evens, we won't get rich on that, but it was almost never in doubt. I hope most of you got on him at 4/1 for the points too though, the logic that if he wins overall he wins the points, or comes very close to winning the points was spot on.. He's odds on to win it, but Trentin still a chance he can take it tomorrow, that would be a nice way to finish the tour for us. 

Stage 20 Review

What a dramatic end to a superb Vuelta.. Contador gave the Spanish and all his fans the dream finish with an extraordinary ride on the Angliru. Indeed, the only disappointing thing about his win was that he didn't attack from afar as some were hoping, instead keeping his reserves for the final climb and going for it full gas. Pantano was immense for him again today, helping him to get away and get a 30" gap very quickly, he gave everything he had for his captain then collapsed in agony.

Contador was brilliant, keeping a steady pace all the way to the finish, he was dying a thousand deaths in the last 2kms but held on. I'm annoyed I didn't have a few quid on Poels at 150/1 after highlighting last night that he has finished 2nd here before.. We were unlucky with Zakarin in 4th, he did a brilliant ride to finish 4th then seeing as he was dropped on the descent off the first climb and had to work really hard to chase back on by himself. It was good enough to move him up to 3rd overall though as I hoped he would, landing the 11/10 bets I recommended last night.

That was enough to make the day profitable, Aru was a disaster, Kruijswijk gave it a good go for us and I thought for a while we were going to land the e/w as he looked to be riding to 2nd place but faded. With two matchbets winning we finished ahead.  

It was a disaster of a day for de la Cruz who crashed on the descent heading to the Angliru, he's out of the race with just one stage to go. Kruijswijk was already in 10th above him though and he didn't slip up, so DLC wouldn't have moved above him anyway. So we'll have to settle for 3 out of 4 of the top 10 bets coming in, all at odds against. 

Froome may regret letting Poels finish ahead of him today though if he really wanted to win the points jersey, he leads Trentin by 26pts but Trentin can still take the jersey if he finishes in 2nd or better in the intermediate sprint and wins the stage.. no pressure on QS then for tomorrow... 

But chapeau to Bertie for today, I couldn't back him at that price, and I'm annoyed he bust our 'no stage wins' right at the death, but I was pleased to see him win it for his legions of fans and for the Spanish, who had had a torrid time. And well done Chris Froome, I don't like backing him as I'm sure many of you know, but that was a pretty decent even money bet wasn't it, was never in doubt. 

The Route

A strange intro to the stage where they start heading north-west and loop around before coming back in the direction they came more or less and head south-east until they reach the 50kms mark where they turn left and start heading north-east for another 34kms until they enter the circuit in Madrid after 84kms.

They then do 8 laps of a 5.6kms circuit in the shape of a T with three hair-pin turns at each point on the T. The finishing straight is over a kilometer long with just a slight kink in the road with about 300m to go.

Contenders and Favourites

So here we go then, the final stage, a crit around Madrid and a sprint on a long finishing straight. Hard to see past QS and Matteo Trentin here isn't it, he's clearly the best sprinter in the race and has the best leadout with Lampaert, Alaphilippe and Jungels, jungels will hit the front coming in to the last kilometre and will have them all stretched out behind and when he realeases Trentin he'll be very hard to pass, he's just so powerful. Trentin needs to win the stage and finish at least 2nd in the intermediate sprint, so QS are going be be working hard from the start to try to reel in the break in time to set him up for the sprint.. 

What can stop him? Well, this is a totally flat sprint, he's better on slightly uphill ones. And he's been working very hard for the points over the last few weeks, getting in to lots of breaks and having to do a lot of climbing and pushing. He may be a little fatigued, but no more than any of the others I think and he has shown his strength to get in to the breaks and finish like he has. QS have lost DLC but I don't think he's such a loss for the sprint train anyway. 

Who can challenge him? Juan Jose Lobato came closest to him in the only other remotely similar sprint finish on stage 4, he led for a while but faded in the last 50m and Trentin shot past. He was in the break on stage 19 but was dropped early on, maybe fatigue is setting in, but they were quite tough climbs. Lotto have 8 of their 9 riders left and aren't a bad leadout for him, he might go close again. 

Magnus Cort Nielsen was not allowed sprint at the start of the Vuelta apparently, it was all-in for the GC challenge, which fell apart for them, Chaves being their best finisher in 11th place. Now that that is out of the way, will they go all-in for him tomorrow? He has been riding well in the last week, getting in breaks on hilly stages, the legs must still be alright. He's just 5/1 though with 365, he's quite short.. 

Sacha Modolo is still in this race apparently, I've not seen him in about two weeks it feels like. He didn't do great in the two sprint stages we had at the start of the race, finishing 5th and 6th, but surely he'll get a little closer this time, and I'd rather be on him at 7/1 than MCN at 5/1. 

Edward Theuns also came close on stages 2 and 4, finishing 4th on both occassions, when he was well fancied for both. Trek will be buzzing after Contador's win today, will they be able to get him up to contest the win? Koen de Kort is a good leadout man, but I'm not sure I can trust Theuns to be there at the finish in the right spot and he could be chasing 4th or 5th again. 

Michael Schwarzmann has been going ok too, taking 6th on stage 2 and 4th on stage 13. The Bora man doesn't have the fastest sprint in the world but he has a lot of power, if he can get the diesel running up the middle of the road he could be good enough for a podium. 

AquaBlue will also be buzzing with their Vuelta, having taken a stage with Stefan Denifl and also being so prominent in breaks on so many different days. Adam Blythe did ok on stage 2 but probabaly should have done better on some other stages when they were well positioned in the last 5kms, then disappeared in the last kilometre. That is the difference between a Grand Tour debutant and teams like QS, they are just a different class when it comes to navigating a sprint finish's traffic. I fear the same might happen tomorrow.  

Anthony Roux, Gianni Moscon, Alexey Lutsenko, Gianni Visconti, Tom Van Asbroeck, Lorenzo Manzin - all could be involved in the melee at the finish too, but I can't see many of them coming near the top 5, let alone the top 3. Gianni Moscon might be interesting though, he has been riding really well and he will be tasked with trying to beat Trentin to make sure Froome gets the jersey. 

So that's it, I think Trentin wins, I hope he wins, it will mean a difference between 22.5pts and 9.5pts for the P&L. I just hope the pressure doesn't get to the team and that they don't exhaust themselves in chasing all day to leave him to his own devices in the last kilometre. The way he's been sprinting though, even if he was left to his own devices he'd probably still win. 

I also want to have a small interest in Modolo, I think he's probably the best out and out sprinter besides Trentin in the race and he's due some luck. 

I hope you enjoyed the previews, it's been a pretty good Vuelta, despite starting badly, the big wins with the Lotto boys alone pulled in nearly 80pts and we have a number of the pre-race bets as winners too. We were unlucky with a few, Fraile getting sick really sucked and Degenkolb getting sick also sucked as he bust a winning points treble bet.

Update - 23:34: I've thought about this a bit more, and I think that Trentin has a really good chance of winning the intermediate, so it means that by backing him for the Points competition instead at 11/8 you're getting a better price on him winnig the stage. I'm going to have 3 more points on him at 11/8, if you've backed him already at evens then it's up to you to go in again, if you haven't backed him yet, I'd recommed taking the 3pts at 11/8 instead. 

Recommendations -

3pts win on Matteo Trentin at evens with Will Hill 

0.75pts e/w on Sacha Modolo at 7/1 with Bet365

3pts on Trentin to win the points at 11/8 with 365 

Matchbets

Modolo to beat Blythe and Trentin to beat Theuns - 3pts at 1.33/1 with Will Hill

Lobato to beat Cort Neilsen - 2pts at 5/4