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Published on Thursday, 25 August 2016 22:00

Vuelta Stage 7

Maceda to Puebla de Sanabria

Fri 26th August, 158.5kms 

The first week of the Vuelta comes to an end and the peloton bids farewell to Galicia, arriving at Castilla y Leon through the Puebla de Sanabria, in the province of Zamora. A lumpy day that could see the break take it or a reduced bunch sprint.. 

The route is a windy one where the braves will probably attempt to break away, which could see them take the stage win on a stage that is going to be difficult to control. The stage is 158.5 kilometres and the peloton will have to climb several mountain passes, such as the Padornelo, which comes just 18.5km from the finish-line.

This stage could be decided by a bunch sprint at the finish, or it could even be a late break as the summit of the Padornelo comes so close to the finish - once over the top there's a 10km descent and only about 8kms on the flat to hang on. The hilly terrain will serve as a preview to the start of the Leon-Asturian mountains that offers so many exciting stages in the Vuelta year after year.

Today's stage saw a break of 11 get away and I can honestly say I wouldn't have picked any of them I think, I certainly wouldn't have picked the likes of Fraile, Frank, Losada or Reza on a day like today. BMC kept it well under control though and in the end they reeled it in enough to see a late attack by Simon Yates take the stage, a superb performance from the young lad from Burnley. Behind Fabio Felline proved to be one of the strongest alright, attacking out of the peloton to take a fine 3rd place and add another 2.5pts to the pot.. Stybar wasn't far off either, taking 18th on the stage, whereas Meersman was dropped by 25 mins or so, so got that right as to who would have a better chance today too. Onwards and upwards!

Just glad again that Gilbert let his backers down, I've no idea why he was just 8/1 for today's stage, he finished 15 minutes down, but Valverde could have won that stage again today had Movistar done something about the gaps.. but that's becoming a bit of a pattern now and it must be maddening for Movistar, the sponsor. Things to take out of today- Mathias Frank was immense, so powerful, he's definitely one to keep an eye on for later stages, I'm certain he'll be on the attack again. Luis Leon Sanchez also was impressive, bridging up with Ellisonde and Felline to the leaders and taking the sprint for 2nd. 

On the overall bets, things are starting to look better, Valverde is now the 5/4 favourite for the points from 7/2 and is looking good as he's picking up bits and pieces even in the sprint stages. Fraile is now 7/2 for the KOM from 7/1 and Movistar are still the 1/2 favourites for the Team prize, hopefully they stay as they are! Chaves is now the 7/2 joint second favourite with Quintana, with Contador at 7/1, but I think now is the time to have a go at Contador, if he's going to get back in to this race, it's going to be in the four stages after this one. Time for a point e/w at 7/1 with PP. 

The Route

Up and down all day, but rising gently all day too, taking them up to nearly 1000m in height. After a flat start they hit their first climb of the day after just 18,5kms, the Cat 3 Puerto de Allariz (6.8kms at 4.4%). After 70kms they hit the second Cat 3 climb of the day, the Alto de Furnaces, which is 11.2kms at 4.4% also. 

The road continues to roll along and they pass the intermediate sprint after 104kms and 30kms later they arrive at the bottom of the final Cat 3 climb of the day, the Alto de Padornelo, which is shorter at just 7kms, and not too difficult at 3.3%. The descent is relatively gentle, at around 4% average gradient for 10kms and the last 8kms are almost flat, just rising a little as they approach the line.  

Contenders and Favourites

A day suited to the break, but also a day suited to the sprinters, so we'll have another day with a battle between the breakaway hopefuls and the sprinters teams/BMC looking to keep them under control. I think the break have only about a 30% chance today though - what is on their side is that it's a rolling, difficult course to organise a chase on and also the GC teams will be thinking of the three brutal days to come and will look to conserve what energy they can.. 

Against them? Well there are lots of brutal days to come and very few chances for the sprinters left in the race.. And as Meersman has hoovered up the two sprint wins so far, there are lots of guys who really will be under pressure to deliver a win in this sort of company. The likes of Arndt, Bonifazio, Sbaragli - none of them have even placed in the top 3 yet and their DSs will be getting stressed!

Also against them is that they will be climbing more or less for 70kms from the bottom of the V approaching the Alto de Fumaces and the top of the Cat 3 Alto de Padornelo and they will be pretty knackered approaching the last 20kms.. But if they get over the final climb with a lead of a minute or more, they have a chance - around 10kms of a descent is followed by 8kms of a flat run-in, with a little kick up in the last 500m.

Etixx can control things again with Bora, Trek, BMC and Giant-Alpecin and it may be that we see them make the catch before the top of the final climb with around 25kms to go.. It could set up others for late attacks, so whoever is doing the chasing will need to keep the pace high to prevent too many slipping away.. But I think Sky, OBE and Tinkoff will help BMC out in this regard too as they may look to keep their GC men out of trouble ahead of the crucial stages to come. 

So another sprint win for Meersman? Wouldn't put it past him.. He probably knocked it back early today when the hills got too hard, would have been good to save energy.. Stybar had to work hard today, but finishing with the GC men on that stage shows just how strong he is. If he can lead him out again I can't see many beating them again - they just need to make sure that they are at the head of affairs hitting the last 2kms again. 

Can Nik Arndt get closer this time? There has been lots of talk and posturing out of GA all week, but they've been unlucky and not really come close to getting what they wanted out of this race, six stages in. It was interesting to see how it turned out in stages 5 and 6 with Waeytens going for it on 5 when the rest of the team had disappeared, and they were all well off the pace today with their first rider in 68th place.. I can't see them breaking the top 3 again. 

Kristian Sbaragli and Jempy Drucker are similar, they haven't been good enough, but Fabio Felline is coming in to some great form, sprinting to 2nd on 5 and attacking out the bunch for 3rd today. He could well be best of the rest again on a lumpy day like today. 

Kevin Reza was on the attack today in the break, I can't see him having the energy to do what he did two stages ago with his fine ride in to 3rd place. Alejandro Valverde was on the scene in stage 5s sprint, but didn't have the speed to get out after Meersman. He also 'won' the bunch sprint today, he could well be involved again, picking up Green Jersey points where he can, but I don't think he'll break top three.

There were very few sprinters finished in the lead groups today, but Tosh Van der Sande was one of them.. He seems to be riding really well too and took 4th in the sprint behind Valverde, Hardy and Clarke, who is due a big result I feel, it's trying to figure out when is the question... TVDS tweeted this tonight though, which shows how high his confidence is and how strong he must be feeling, and also that he has his eye on tomorrow's stage too! 

"Pfffwief 11th in this stage! Thought i was going to sprint for 1st place until the climbers punched away! Aaauwhtch... #mañana"

I think you have to go with form again tomorrow and I think we will see a similar outcome to stage 5 with Meersman and Felline fighting it out again, and I don't want to desert them as they have paid us on the last two stages.. Valverde might be there or thereabouts too, and maybe TVDS can land a place at bigger odds, although he's shorter than I thought he might be at 18/1. Watch out for Caja Rural though, Pardilla or Madrazo might get involved in this finish too.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Gianni Meersman at 5/1 with Ladbrokes

1pt each-way on Fabio Felline at 8/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Tosh Van der Sande at 18/1 with various

Matchbets

Stybar to beat Battaglin - 3pts at 8/11 with PP

Goncalves to beat Gilbert - 2pts at evens with PP (I've a feeling Gilbert will be dropped again...)

Felline to beat Van der Sande & Valverde to beat LL Sanchez - 2pts on the double at 11/8 with Bet365