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Published on Wednesday, 31 August 2016 22:23

Vuelta Stage 12

Los Cor. de Buelna to Bilbao

Thurs 1st Sept, 193.2kms 

The Vuelta returns to the Basque Country and their exhuberent fans - Euskadi's love of cycling always makes the stage finales spectacular. It will be a long day, covering 193.2km between Los Corrales de Buelna and the city of Bilbao.

It's the first stage in four where they don't have to finish on a summit, but they still have to take on four mountain passes, the most notable being the Puerto de Las Alisas, a Cat 1 climb that comes after just 36kms.. They will also do a double pass through El Vivero in the final part, with a 4.2km climb and an 8.5% gradient just 13km from the finale at the Biscayan capital. This is a very similar stage to stage 18 of the 2011 Vuelta which started in Noja on the coast, but finished in Bilbao with this circuit.

It was the first time in 33 years that the Vuelta had returned to Euskadi and Igor Anton sent the Euskatel Euskadi fans in to raptures with a famous win. Anton of course won't be repeating that win as he abandoned before stage 9, but there are a few Spanish riders who can still maybe send the fans home happy. 

So Chris Froome carries on being Chris Froome and smashing all those around him. Nairo tried, but it was back to the Nairo of old it seemed with no killer instinct - he seemed to have Nairo on the ropes but didn't press it home. Ben Hermans almost won the stage, which is very annoying as he was one I had picked for tomorrow as you'll se below. Chaves looked like he might have done enough to win the stage for us with 800m to go as he attacked hard, but was caught wthen Froome and Quintana stepped on the gas.

So it now looks like the battle between Froome and Quintana really is hotting up, Froome pulled back 4 more seconds, when really, Quintana should be taking more time away from Froome to give him a chance. So the break was pulled in by Tinkoff, what a bunch of morons they are, Contador did nothing as soon as push came to shove, and even Konig was slagging them off afterwards thanking them for helping to pull back the break, they wouldn't have won the stage without them. 

The Route

They head predominantly east all day on a lumpy, tough day in the saddle, possibly being buffeted by winds coming in off the sea too. There's a small climb to get over right from the gun, but after that they have a 30km run to the first climb of the day, the Puerta de Las Alisas which averages a steady 5.9% which they cross with 49kms gone. 30kms later they go over the Alto Las Escrita, an easy Cat 3. 

With 133kms gone they enter Bilbao and go off on a loop to the east of the city, which they do two laps of and take in two ascensions of the Cat 2 Alto El Vivero, a nasty little bump of 4.2kms at an average of 8.5%, with parts that hit 10%. Once over the top for the last time there's just 13kms to the finish, with 8kms of it the descent and a final 5kms which slope gently all the way to Bilbao. It looks a day perfect for a late attack, that either splits the race to pieces and we get a strong favourites group fight out the finish, or a solo rider or two makes it. 

Contenders and Favourites

This looks more like a day for Omar Fraile to go on the attack again - an early Cat 1 which he should take and a Cat 3 not long after, he can rack up a nice few points to stretch his lead in the KOM classification, and if they build up enough of a lead he may take the points on the first, possibly the 2nd Cat 2 near the finish. So he's first on my list.. he may not be the best finisher for a fast finish depending on who's with him, but if he can drop them on the climb he could solo to victory. He's too short at 16/1 though, he might be happy to just take all the KOM points and roll in to the finish.

Another candidate for the break is Luis Angel Mate - he was on the attack also on the stage to Lagos de Covadonga and claimed after that he felt good enough to win the stage, but had been dropped by Gesink so I'm not sure about that! He finished 20th on the stage but claims that he is going well enough to take a stage, Cofidis will need something sooner or later out of this race too as it's been pretty poor for them so far. 

This could actually be a stage that could suit a number of the Astana boys, Luis Leon being one of them. I've been loathe to back LL up until now, and if you backed him for the stage on Sunday at 5/1 you'd want your head examined. He got in the break, but was not good enough in the hills to win, finishing 5th. This is a different sort of stage, and one I think suits him a lot more - the Cat 2s near the end are far more manageable for him and he is better attacking on this sort of a finish. He can also sprint a bit in a reduced group, but best price 11/1 so far? Too short again.. maybe if we get 16 or 20/1 later or on betfair he might be worth a go.

Dario Cataldo could also go well on this course, he finished 2nd in a stage of Catalunya this year with a similar profile, it had a Cat 2 climb 7kms from the finish, he was beaten by Poels who attacked away. It's been a long time since he won but that run will surely come to an end soon, and he may just find this a great chance to do so, and at 50/1 he's far more value than LL. 

Moreno Moser was active on the stage to the Alto del Naranco, taking 3rd, just behind Devenyns, and is keen to try again apparently. He took a fine 2nd and 3rd in stages in the Giro this year, the 3rd coming on a similar stage which had a tough Cat 2 climb just 20kms before the finish in Arezzo, a stage won by Brambilla. Cannondale actually have a number of candidates for this stage, including Ben King and Simon Clarke, but Si Clarke got smashed up in a crash in stage 10 and may not be able to continue or ride hard.

And of course you have the puncheur types who can either get in the break of the day and try to hold onto the finish, maybe attacking over the final climb or winning the sprint, or who will stay in the peloton, hope they catch them and then try to pounce late on the last climb. Guys like Philippe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans, but I'm not prepared to back either of them.

Fabio Felline could be a prime pick though as he offers multiple options - he was on the attack on stage 10 and rode so well all day that he even managed to land 10th place on the day, despite the climb to Covadonga. He was very pleased with his climbing and I think he offers multiple options to give us a chance of a win - he can try the long-range attack again and if he gets to the finish with a small group, he probably wins. He can also wait in the peloton and either attack late on the final climb, or wait and try his luck in what should be a reduced bunch sprint. He's very short also at just 12/1 with Ladbrokes, but he may offer the best chance of the shorter priced ones. 

Gianni Meersman is similar, he doesn't like the climbing a great deal, but can get over quite lumpy terrain, and he could either try his luck in the break all day too or hold on for the bunch kick. Or more likely, Gianluca Brambilla will like this finish with the Cat 2 climb near the finish, he can attack on it, or sit in while all the sprinters get dropped and could sprint to victory.. But at 10/1 I'm not sure about him... 

And then you have someone like Ben Hermans who rode so well on Sunday in stage 10, but to no reward (finished 27th) but he also rode really well on stage 6 to take 4th after Yates, Sanchez and Felline and also rode really well in Burgos to take 2nd overall in the GC. I was thinking he might try again in the break, so BMC don't have to chase and maybe Gilbert or Sammy Sanchez attacks late, but he put in a big ride today unfortunately, so I'm leaving him now. 

And what about the Caja Rural boys? Surely they will get one or two in the break, but they have plenty of options for it - Pardilla, Goncalves, Madrazo, Prades, Cathy and Bilbao. Pelle Bilbao won a stage in Turkey this year, the day when half the Caja Rural team were in the break and placed Bilbao, Goncalves, Arroyo, Vilela and Roson in the top eight on the stage! He also finished 2nd in a lumpy stage in Castilla Y Leon earlier in the year behind Betancur.

But more importantly, he comes from Guernica, just outside of Bilbao, where this stage finishes and he will know this finish pretty well you'd think. In fact, I'm going to back him today, and I'm going to back him tomorrow, as tomorrow's route goes within about 10kms of his home town and he might try his luck again. There's nothing like a bit of home knowledge and at 40/1 he's worth backing. 

So there's a wide selection of possibles, I give the break a big chance of making it, the only thing I think that might spur the peloton in to a strong chasedown will be if Valverde fancies the intermediate sprint between the two final climbs, and even maybe if he fancies that Movistar can shake out all the sprinter types on the final ascent of the Cat 2, which is very possible. and maybe he thinks he can take the stage too. That and the possibility that some teams/riders who will fancy this finish will have missed the break and will want to pull them back. 

But I give the break about an 80% chance of making it and so have a few nice candidates for it at long odds, will re-evaluate also in-play if I can, if it looks like they will be caught. If they are caught, Felline, Van Genechten, Van De Sande and Drucker might feature in the sprint, but it will be touch and go that it does end in a sprint I think. 

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Recommendations:

0.3pts each-way on Pelle Bilbao at 40/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Moreno Moser at 40/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Luis Angel Maté at 50/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Fabio Felline at 12/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Brambilla to beat LL Sanchez - 3pts at evens with Bet365

Felline to beat Valverde - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365