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Published on Friday, 19 August 2016 21:13

Vuelta a Espana St. 1

Ourense to Castrelo de Miño

Saturday Aug 20th, 27.8km

The Vuelta kicks off with a 27.8km team time trial in the north-west corner of the country, going from the Laias Health Resort to the Castrelo de Mino Nautical Park. It is almost dead flat so won't present too many problems to the powerful teams

Last year's race started in farcical fashion as the race organisers realised at the last minute that it was probably not a good idea to have a team time trial across temporary plastic boards, a beach and rubber mats. They neutralised the stage from a time point of view and completely killed it as a competition, as none of the GC teams had any incentive to ride hard and risk injury to themselves.

As a result, Sky went from something like 4/1 to 16/1 before the off as everyone realised Froome would be taking it conservatively and the likes of Caja Rural came in from 200/1 to 60/1 as they had every incentive to go full gas and try to take rare shot at stage glory. In the end though, despite probably not going 100%, BMC were still too good for all the rest, but only just held off Astana by one second. That TT was over only 7.4kms though, this is a far longer course, four times longer in fact. 

The Route

It's an almost dead flat loop that takes them from the thermal spa of the Laias Health Resort in Ourense to the Nautical Park in Castrelo de Mino, so quite a fancy backdrop to both the start and finish of the stage. WIth barely a hill on the route it really is one for the big powerful squads and we could see some significant time gaps between the stronger teams and the weaker team triallists.  Looking at the recons these last few days, it looks to be a fast course for powerful teams.. 

Favourites and Contenders

BMC have been the team to beat for several years now in time trials like this one, and even when not going flat out last year in the farcical first stage they still won by a second from Tinkoff. This wouldn't be a vintage BMC team time trial team though, but still pack quite a punch. Tejay Van Garderen, Jempy Drucker and Darwin Atapuma are the only guys back from the team that won this race last year, and are joined by Philippe Gilbert, Ben Hermans, Dylan Teuns, Dylan Wyss and Silvan Dillier. 

Astana will be looking to get Miguel Angel Lopez off to a good start and have a strong team here to help him - Luis Leon Sanchez, Michele Scarponi, Gatis Smukulis, Davide Malacarne, Dimitry Gruzdev, Dario Cataldo, Andrey Zeits and Alessandro Vanotti.. 

Scarponi, Malacarne, Zanotti, Gruzdev and Cataldo were in the team that won the TTT in the Vuelta a Burgos a few weeks ago, so they clearly have a good relationship going at the moment and together with powerhouses like Sanchez and Smukulis they are sure to post a strong time on a course like this one. They look a big price at 25/1 with Bet365, they are only 6/1 with Corals.. so the 7/2 to finish on the podium with Bet365 looks a good bet.

Movistar have a really strong team here too, and Quintana will want to get off to a good start too, or at the very least lose as little as possible to his rivals. Valverde, Castroviejo, Moreno, Herrada, Sutherland, Erviti and Rojas make a very strong team - Castroviejo was very strong in the Olympics and came very close to winning a medal, and he'll be a driving force in this team as they look to strike a blow on home soil on day 1. We may even see them give the Red Jersey to Scott Sunderland for what could possibly be his first race leader's jersey ever, at the age of 34! 

Team Sky will of course have a big part to play in this stage too, any team with Chris Froome in it is bound to go well. He is joined by Leopold Konig, Michael Kwiatkowski, Michal Golas, David Lopez, Christian Knees, Pete Kennaugh and Ian Boswell - every one of which are very strong time triallists. As a unit they could be the strongest on paper here and I think they will go very close to winning this, and I don't think they'll be bothered about taking the jersey on the very first day, the question is, who they will give the jersey to.. My guess would be... the old war horse Christian Knees!

Tinkoff will also need to fight hard here to make sure Contador doesn't lose too much time, but they wouldn't have the greatest of teams here, with Trofimov, Kiserlovski, Rovny, Hernandez, Gogl, Boaro, Bennati and Paulinho all being fair to average time triallists. I think they might struggle to repeat their close second in this TTT last year and they may not even finish in the top 5. 

LottoNL-Jumbo have a power-packed squad here too with their top time-triallist Jos Van Emden joined by Gesink, Tankink, Bouwman, Bennett, Keizer, Campanaerts and Battaglin and they can go well I think. Van Emden, Keizer and Gesink will be the lynchpins of the squad, but the likes of Campanaerts and Tankink are well able to put down the power, Campanaerts is the Belgian TT champion after all. 

Orica Bike Exchange are another team who used to kick ass in these Team Time Trials, but have been having a leaner time of it of late. It is a strong looking team they have here, with evergreen Svein Tuft being joined by Jens Keukelere, Simon Gerrans, Damian Howson, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Sam Bewley and Jack Haig, with Chaves and Simon Yates along for the ride. In the Vuelta a Burgos TTT they only finished 6th, but that team only had Yates and Howson of the starters here. In the only other TTT they did this year in Tirreno-Adriatico back at the start of the season, they finished a lowly 9th place.

In this TTT last year (the neutralised one) they went all guns blazing for it but just fell short, finishing on the same time as Tinkoff, just 1" behind BMC. That team contained Howson, Gerrans, Tuft and Chaves, but also had the power of Hayman, Docker, Meyer and Impey, which they are missing here. You have to go back to the Giro in 2015 to find the last TTT they won, but to be fair, there aren't a lot of opportunities during a season for TTTs. And to illustrate how much of a B team this is for the TTT, only Tuft and Bewley are here of the team that were selected for the World TTT Championships in Richmond last year, they finished 4th, almost a minute behind BMC. I think 4th to 6th possibly for OBE this time. 

Etixx-QS are a team you can't forget about of course in a race like this, and with the likes of Terpstra, Meersman and Stybar they have a strong engine. Bouet, Meersman, Serry, Brambilla, De La Cruz and Velits were in the team that placed 3rd in Burgos a few weeks back, so they should be a cohesive and smooth unit and we may be looking at the 18/1 tomorrow night and think it looked very big!

Cannondale will struggle I think, they have a team more suited to the hills than flat time trials, and Trek will also find it hard going with the squad they have here. 

The betting shows how hard it is to split the favourites, Sky edge the betting with Paddy Power at 15/8, with BMC at 5/2 and Movistar at 3/1, whereas Bet365 go 15/8 BMC, 9/4 Team Sky and 5/2 Movistar. I have a feeling that Sky might just sneak this one, I think they have a stronger team than BMC here and might finally get one over their rivals. Movistar could well round out the top 3 but I think Astana at the prices might surprise and land a top 3. And just as I was finishing this off I see that Corals have come out with Sky at 5/1, a huge price that has to be taken, especially as they are offering e/w on the first two.  

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Team Sky at 5/1 with Coral paying 1/3 the odds for the first two

2pts win on Astana to finish in the top 3 at 7/2 with Bet365

UPDATE, 01:30am - Corals have held their 5/1 on Sky and there is a clear arb available with Betfair - so I've had another 10 points on Sky at 5/1 and am laying it back at 5/2 or shorter to give myself a nice free bet for 25pts profit or more on the team I actually think is going to win... 

Matchbets

Astana to beat Orica Bike Exchange - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365